Pakistan on course to become Islamist state, U.S. experts say

Discussion in 'West Asia & Africa' started by pyromaniac, Apr 20, 2009.

  1. pyromaniac

    pyromaniac Founding Member

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    A growing number of U.S. intelligence, defense and diplomatic officials have concluded that there’s little hope of preventing nuclear-armed Pakistan from disintegrating into fiefdoms controlled by Islamist warlords and terrorists, posing the a greater threat to the U.S. than Afghanistan’s terrorist haven did before 9/11.

    “It’s a disaster in the making on the scale of the Iranian revolution,” said a U.S. intelligence official with long experience in Pakistan who requested anonymity because he wasn’t authorized to speak publicly.

    Pakistan’s fragmentation into warlord-run fiefdoms that host al Qaida and other terrorist groups would have grave implications for the security of its nuclear arsenal; for the U.S.-led effort to pacify Afghanistan ; and for the security of India , the nearby oil-rich Persian Gulf and Central Asia , the U.S. and its allies.

    ” Pakistan has 173 million people and 100 nuclear weapons, an army which is bigger than the American army, and the headquarters of al Qaida sitting in two-thirds of the country which the government does not control,” said David Kilcullen , a retired Australian army officer, a former State Department adviser and a counterinsurgency consultant to the Obama administration.

    ” Pakistan isn’t Afghanistan , a backward, isolated, landlocked place that outsiders get interested in about once a century,” agreed the U.S. intelligence official. “It’s a developed state . . . (with) a major Indian Ocean port and ties to the outside world, especially the (Persian) Gulf, that Afghanistan and the Taliban never had.”

    “The implications of this are disastrous for the U.S.,” he added. “The supply lines (from Karachi to U.S. bases) in Kandahar and Kabul from the south and east will be cut, or at least they’ll be less secure, and probably sooner rather than later, and that will jeopardize the mission in Afghanistan , especially now that it’s getting bigger.”

    The experts McClatchy interviewed said their views aren’t a worst case scenario but a realistic expectation based on the militants’ gains and the failure of Pakistan’s civilian and military leadership to respond.

    “The place is beyond redemption,” said a Pentagon adviser who asked not to be further identified so he could speak freely. “I don’t see any plausible scenario under which the present government or its most likely successor will mobilize the economic, political and security resources to push back this rising tide of violence.

    “I think Pakistan is moving toward a situation where the extremists control virtually all of the countryside and the government controls only the urban centers,” he continued. “If you look out 10 years, I think the government will be overrun by Islamic militants.”

    That pessimistic view of Pakistan’s future has been bolstered by Islamabad’s surrender this week for the first time of areas outside the frontier tribal region to Pakistan’s Taliban movement and by a growing militant infiltration of Karachi , the nation’s financial center, and the industrial and political heartland province of Punjab, in part to evade U.S. drone strikes in the tribal belt.

    Civilian deaths in the drone attacks, the eight-year-old U.S. intervention in Afghanistan and U.S. support for Pakistan’s former military dictatorship also have sown widespread ambivalence about the threat the insurgency poses and revulsion at fighting fellow Muslims.

    “The government has to ratchet up the urgency and ratchet up the commitment of resources. This is a serious moment for Pakistan ,” said Sen. John Kerry , D- Mass. , the Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman, on April 14 in Islamabad . “The federal government has got to . . . define this problem as Pakistan’s .”

    Many Pakistanis, however, dismiss such warnings as inflated. They think that the militants are open to dialogue and political accommodation to end the unrest, which many trace to the former military regime’s cooperation with the U.S. after 9/11.

    Ahsan Iqbal , a top aide to opposition leader and former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif , said the insurgency can be quelled if the government rebuilds the judicial system, improves law enforcement, compensates guerrillas driven to fight by relatives’ deaths in security force operations and implements democratic reforms.

    “It will require time,” Iqbal told McClatchy reporters and editors this week. “We need a very strong resolve and internal unity.”

    Many U.S. officials, though, regard the civilian government of Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari as unpopular, dysfunctional and mired in infighting. It’s been unable to agree on an effective counterinsurgency strategy or to address the ills that are feeding the unrest. These include ethnic and sectarian hatreds, ineffective police, broken courts, widespread corruption, endemic poverty and a deepening financial crisis, they said.

    Pakistan’s army, meanwhile, is hobbled by a lack of direction from the country’s civilian leaders, disparaged for its repeated coups and shaken by repeated defeats by the militants. It remains fixated on India to ensure high budgets and cohesion among troops of divergent ethnic and sectarian allegiances, U.S. officials and experts said.

    Many officers and politicians also oppose fighting the Islamist groups that Pakistan nurtured to fight proxy wars in Afghanistan and Kashmir , and because they think the U.S. is secretly conspiring with India to destabilize their country.

    Alarm rose in Washington this week after the parliament and Zardari agreed to impose Islamic law in the Swat district, where extremists have repelled several army offensives; closed girls’ schools; and beheaded, hanged and lashed opponents and alleged criminals.

    The government’s capitulation handed the militants their first refuge outside the remote tribal area bordering Afghanistan , and less than 100 miles north of Islamabad . Taliban fighters also advanced virtually unopposed from Swat into the Buner district, 60 miles north of Islamabad .

    Buner is close to a key hydroelectric dam and to the highways that link Pakistan to China , and Islamabad to Peshawar , the capital of the North West Frontier Province , much of which is already under Taliban sway.

    Many U.S. officials and other experts expect the militants to continue advancing.

    The Taliban “have now become a self-sustaining force,” author Ahmed Rashid , an expert on the insurgency, told a conference in Washington on Wednesday. “They have an agenda for Pakistan , and that agenda is no less than to topple the government of Pakistan and ‘Talibanizing’ the entire country.”

    Iqbal, the adviser to Sharif, disagreed. While militants will overrun small pockets, most Pakistanis embrace democracy and will resist living under the Taliban’s harsh interpretation of Islam, he said.

    “The psychology, the temperament, the mood of the Pakistani nation does not subscribe to these extremist views,” Iqbal said.

    The U.S. intelligence official, however, said that Pakistan’s elite, dominated since the country’s independence in 1947 by politicians, bureaucrats and military officers from Punjab, have failed to recognize the seriousness of the situation.

    “The Punjabi elite has already lost control of Pakistan , but neither they nor the Obama administration realize that,” the official said. ” Pakistan will be an Islamist state - or maybe a collection of four Islamic states, probably within a few years. There’s no civilian leadership in Islamabad that can stop this, and so far, there hasn’t been any that’s been willing to try.”

    Several U.S. officials said that the Afghanistan - Pakistan strategy that President Barack Obama unveiled last month is being called into question by the accelerating rate at which the insurgency in Pakistan is expanding.

    The plan hinges on the Pakistani army’s willingness to put aside its obsession with Hindu-dominated India and focus on fighting the Islamist insurgency. It also presupposes, despite doubts held by some U.S. officials, that sympathetic Pakistani military and intelligence officers will sever their links with militant groups.


    http://iaoj.wordpress.com/2009/04/18/pakistan-on-course-to-become-islamist-state-us-experts-say/
     
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  3. notinlove

    notinlove Regular Member

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    All i can do is be me, whoever that is.
    This could have grave implications for India , as much as indians would like to see a disintegrated pakistan , i would rather see those nuclear weapons in the hands of a competent and sensible military , rather than religious fanatics.
     
  4. GokuInd

    GokuInd Regular Member

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    So what's the bad news then?
     
  5. DaRk WaVe

    DaRk WaVe Regular Member

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    one year old article has been resurrected thats the bad news :)


    ROFL, that made my day seriously, How many more years are left BTW?
     
    Last edited: Apr 8, 2010
  6. notinlove

    notinlove Regular Member

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    Start counting girl :p
     
  7. DaRk WaVe

    DaRk WaVe Regular Member

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    its been at least like 3 years since i am hearing about the fall & disintegration of Islamic Republic of Pakistan, No doubt we are having 'hard times' but the situation is not as bad as it is been portrayed

    & i am seriously sick of the 'concerns over Pakistani Nuclear Weapons', Does Taliban employs soldiers from God Damn SAS,Green Berets, Navy Seals & Rangers, Will PA let them get hands on the 'strategic & national assets so easily'??
     
    Last edited: Apr 8, 2010
  8. notinlove

    notinlove Regular Member

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    Incase you didn't get it , I WAS JOKING .there is a ":p" at the end of the sentence ;)
     
  9. ahmedsid

    ahmedsid Top Gun Senior Member

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    There are chances of Pakistan, atleast a Part of Pakistan going into the hands of the fundamentalists. I mean this is not a war Pakistan can win by bombing and killing off terrorists, if that would be the case, Russia would be still having Afghanistan. This cant be won the way Pakistan is playing the game. There has to be a change from within. The Rules should change, I mean supporting a few terror outfits, dividing and saying Good Talib and Bad Talib, all this gotta stop, and there should be the same yardstick to measure all, be it terrorism against a neighbour or terrorism within! Only then will I be satisfied when Pakistanis tell me what, aaal is welll!
     
  10. ajtr

    ajtr Veteran Member Veteran Member

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    Pakistan has been islamist state since 1947.Present day talibanisation is the culmination of all the events since 1947 its polity army judiciary pandered to Mullahs.Btw pak army is more islamist than the taliban itself coz its the pak army which controls most of the islamist groups in pakistan.even the islamist culture in pak society is the gift of army only.
     
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  11. ahmedsid

    ahmedsid Top Gun Senior Member

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    You are right, but it didnt happen right after 47, it happened during the call to Jihad in Afghanistan. Before that it was mainly Racial Superiority Complex mixed with a False Sense Of Being an Islamic Country. After the Soviets were driven out, it was like Fanatiscim was the order of the day. They thought, better to Drive out India from Kashmir, and there started everything Pakistan is suffering today. Its what I always say, the snake we feed is bound to bite our hand one day, its just logic!

    These are dangerous zombie organisations the Pak army feeds and the ones they are fighting were chums not long ago, not only with pakistan, but Uncle Sam. We cant absolve Uncle sam of the responsibilty too, but then pakistan played into the hands of the very people they act to despise! Yes ACT!

    Being an Islamic Country is very much okay! Isnt Malaysia one? or some more? Its just that Pakistan got mixed up with the falsely branded Islam sold to it by a few!
     
  12. Vinod2070

    Vinod2070 मध्यस्थ Stars and Ambassadors

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    Well in Pakistan's case:

    [FONT=Courier New,Courier]Na Khuda hi mila/ Na wisaal-e-sanam/ Na udhar ke rahe/ Na idhar ke rahe

    Or as we say in Hindi

    Duvidha me dono gaye, maya mili na Ram.

    Pakistan is neither a fully Islamist country nor a secular one, nor even a moderate Islamic state. It has a confused identity leading to its confused state.
    [/FONT]
     
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  13. bengalraider

    bengalraider DFI Technocrat Stars and Ambassadors

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    I thought Pakistan already became Islamic after Gen. Zia went ahead with his sharia benches and hudood ordinance in 1978-79.
     
  14. Super Commando Dhruva

    Super Commando Dhruva Regular Member

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    No chances at all. Pakistan is minuscule as compared to Indian economy and global clout but it has mighty military achieved by logic of " we will eat grass". Pakistan has demolished its image around the world to keep the aid flowing but imagining that couple of thousand militants can take over million strong professional military hierarchical machine and control its Nuclear weapons is laughable.

    Pakistan is feeding militants to meet its narrow ends, at no time militants will be able to dictate its terms to master ISI or ISI won't spare a second to ditch them for benefit. Their obsession lies with " Hindu" India and they ( Terrorist sympathizers inside army and ISI, the big boys calling shots in Pakistan) know India cannot be beaten by turning whole nation into Jehadi playground.

    And leaving aside terrorist infrastructure, Pakistan is pretty modern state with middle class as quasi liberal. Their gullible citizens can easily be moulded into forming an opinion like that of Ziad Hamid speeches labeling monster created by Frankenstein as supported by evil RAW, MOSSAD, CIA.

    And yeah, Russia's 40th Army achieved all objectives in Afghanistan. Internal turmoil in soviet union forced Russians to retreat.
     
  15. ajtr

    ajtr Veteran Member Veteran Member

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    i once posted the series "story of pakistan" where najam sethi beautifully explained that the islamisation of pakistan started right from the time of independence and liaqat ali khan.during zia times it was complete and it has reached full circle now.
     
    Last edited: Apr 8, 2010
  16. ajtr

    ajtr Veteran Member Veteran Member

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  17. ajtr

    ajtr Veteran Member Veteran Member

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    I would rather say that islamization of present day pakistan started way back on 24th march 1940 when 1st pakistan(ie separate homeland for muslims of british ndia) resolution was passed and then to acieve pakistan Jinnah's threatening call of Direct Action Day, also known as The Great Calcutta Killing, was on 16 August 1946 and before that Iqbal in 1930 AIML session.In 1933 Jinnah used the term " pakistan" coined by Rehmat Ali for the emergence of such a islamist state.

    The Ghost of Muslim League- Still haunting?

     
  18. ahmedsid

    ahmedsid Top Gun Senior Member

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    What are you talking about? Why bring in the economy? You quote my Post wherein in my post I didnt mention anything you said! You saying Russian 40th Army achieved objectives, now you talking like Pakistanis saying they won 65 and 71 War! Learn to reply to the point and dont make it look like you just went on ranting!
     
  19. notinlove

    notinlove Regular Member

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    i don't want to comment on pakistan , but russians would like to point out that they did meet their main objective in afghanistan , and which was not to let NATO enter it.
     
  20. Super Commando Dhruva

    Super Commando Dhruva Regular Member

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    when did i rant Ahmed ji ? I apologize if you feel hurt. My utmost respect to you sir.
     

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