Pakistan Economy: News & Discussion

hriday

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here good point about pakistan economy ....recent trend...good video

 

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Economy faces serious challenges: SBP
The country’s crop sector posted negative growth of 6.3 per cent in 2015-16, which led to a decline of 0.2pc in the overall agriculture sector for the first time since 2000-01, according to the State Bank. Textile exports declined almost 6pc year-on-year to $3 billion in July-Sept, data by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics shows.
KARACHI: Pakistan has been facing serious challenges, including low savings and investment levels, falling exports, poor spending on the social sector and reliance of the tax structure on stopgap measures that create distortions in the economy, according to the State of the Economy 2015-16 report released by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) on Thursday.
It praised the government for macro-economic achievements and expressed hope for a better future with a higher economic growth rate. However, it identified a number of challenges that the economy has been facing.
There are certain challenges that deserve the undivided attention of all stakeholders, said the report. “Pakistan needs to increase its savings and investment levels. Although public investment is increasing despite resource constraints, investment by the private sector has not increased sufficiently,” it said, adding that this has inhibited the country’s potential growth.
“Savings are not commensurate with required investible resources. The situation cannot be fully remedied unless the private sector, in particular, comes up with attractive savings schemes in the areas of pensions, provident fund, gratuity, old-age benefit schemes; targeted marketing of such schemes (including in the rural areas) is also imperative,” said the report.
Declining exports continue to pose a major challenge for a sustainable external account. Some recent policy fixes are welcome steps and will have positive impact, but structural issues in the export industry should also be resolved, it said.
These shortcomings magnify the impact of falling global commodity prices. “Therefore, a more coherent and integrated industrial and trade policy, supplemented by a regulatory regime that rewards innovation, is the need of the hour,” said the report.
“While ongoing fiscal consolidation measures are welcome and have been widely appreciated by both local and foreign stakeholders, the reliance of the tax structure on stopgap measures — like the imposition of regulatory duties in November 2015 — is creating distortions in the economy,” said the report.
As sectors like telecommunication and energy yield hefty revenues, others like agriculture are hardly contributing their worth in total taxes, it added.
The report said the country has been unable to spend nearly as much on social sector development as it needs to. Be it health or education, Pakistan spends much less as a percentage of GDP than many developing countries.
“Despite some improvements in areas like poverty alleviation, maternal and child mortality and primary school enrolment, the country was unable to meet a majority of the targets set under the Millennium Development Goals (MDG) framework,” said the SBP report, adding that with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) having replaced MDGs last year, a deep rethink is required across all levels of the government.
The report said that Pakistan seems to be well-positioned to address these challenges and make progress to a higher growth trajectory and social development. Moreover, a prolonged spell of low oil prices has made it easier to expedite and deepen structural reforms, it added.
The report reiterates that without private-sector participation, it will be hard to achieve a higher and sustainable growth rate that is built on the pillars of entrepreneurship, innovation and competitiveness.
While commenting on sector performance, the SBP said the crop sector posted negative growth of 6.3 per cent in 2015-16, which led to a decline of 0.2pc in the overall agriculture sector for the first time since 2000-01.
The industrial sector posted healthy growth of 6.8pc in 2015-16, which was not only higher than 4.8pc growth realised in 2014-15, but also surpassed the annual target of 6.4pc. Construction activity grew 13.1pc in 2015-16 – more than double the level of growth seen in 2014-15.
On the back of modest growth in the commodity-producing sectors (agriculture and industry), higher trade volumes and a healthy performance by financial institutions, the services sector grew at a decade-high level of 5.7pc in 2015-16, the SBP said.
“With an improved macroeconomic environment, better energy supplies and subsiding security concerns, business sentiments are upbeat. In addition, smooth progress on China-Pakistan Economic Corridor-related projects will ease infrastructure and energy constraints, and also create demand for industrial output.”
 

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‘Pakistan’s economy will collapse in the next 10 years’
KARACHI: Education is linked with economic prosperity but the education sector in Sindh is underperforming despite the fact that Rs700 million of the province’s annual development budget has been allocated to the education sector, said Education Minister Jam Mehtab Hussain Dahar.
“Pakistan’s economy is going to collapse like that of Greece’s in the next 10 years,” he warned. Dahar was addressing the inauguration ceremony of a conference, titled ‘International Conference on Transforming Economic Development: Policies and Strategies’, organised by the Applied Economics Research Centre (AERC) at the ICCBS, Karachi University on Tuesday. “Pakistan has been divided into haves and have-nots classes,” he said.
Like other flourishing countries, Pakistan has to manage according to its own environment to achieve the international Sustainable Development Goals, he said.
Pakistan is facing enormous challenges such as illiteracy, poverty, inequalities, corruption, energy and governance issues that have had a direct negative impact on the economic development and growth of the country, he pointed out.
“Pakistan is heading towards a social and economic hurricane that will cause great damage,” said AERC director Prof Dr Samina Khalil, adding that the economic hurricane will sweep away much of the current economy and Pakistan’s assumptions about the future.
The three-day conference aims to devise development policies and strategies for the transformation of the economy of Pakistan, explained Dr Khalil. It is providing a forum for discussion among renowned national and international academics, researchers, practitioners, policy makers and students, she said.
Seconding the education minister, economist Dr Kaiser Bengali said that Pakistan has been divided into two classes, the haves and have-nots. “The country’s exports are being reduced as compared to imports, which have increased,” he said, pointing out that the deficit created from this difference between exports and imports is mounting up debts.
Tension with India is extremely harmful for us, said Pakistan Institute of Development Economics vice-chancellor Dr Asad Zaman. “Pakistan needs to rethink and reconfigure trading patterns; self-sufficiency is the need of the hour,” said Zaman.
A total of 32 research papers will be presented in the conference.
Hope is alive yet.
IMG_20161123_122809_026.JPG
 

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If Pakistan conducted a surgical strike, it would become part of Indian textbooks: COAS Gen Raheel

Chief of Army Staff (COAS) Gen Raheel Sharif on Thursday termed India's 'surgical strike' a 'drama'.

"If Pakistan were to conduct a surgical strike, it would become a chapter in Indian textbooks," the army chief said.
I used to think this general is somewhat different from previous ones who keeps doing his job and doesn't speak much and trying to prevent terrorism atleast within Pakistan. Par Muh Khola toh same lallu bakiyo sa.

The army chief, addressing members of a tribal jirga in Khyber Agency's Bara tehsil said the Pakistan Army is "the strongest force against terrorism".

"They have eliminated terrorism from Pakistan's tribal areas," he said.

"I kept the morale of Pakistan Army up in my time, but I will hand over the reigns to the next chief on Nov 29," he told members of the jirga..
"We have fought the menace of terrorism together over the years," the army chief said. "It has woven us eternally in an unbreakable bond."
"I hope that the relationship between the army and the nation will continue, even after I say goodbye to the Pakistan Army," he said.

Talking about his post-retirement plans, he said he would like to dedicate his life for the welfare of the families of slain soldiers.
The COAS is set to retire Nov 29 and is spending his last week as army chief on farewell visits around the country.
 

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Bas yahi sunna baki reh gaya tha.
:flypig::flypig::flypig::flypig::flypig:
FLYPIG
I used to think this general is somewhat different from previous ones who keeps doing his job and doesn't speak much and trying to prevent terrorism atleast within Pakistan. Par Muh Khola toh same lallu bakiyo sa.
There's no difference. Social Progress pace in Pakistan has remained just half or even lesser of India for last 25 years. I don't get anything different.
Air Chief seems more sensible than Army Chief.
Ghanta sensible!!
called on India to resolve the Kashmir issue, saying: "They should speak on matters of principle and our ties will improve."
They know very well that we will never ever move ahead in this context. Phir bhi itni backchodi?:biggrin2:
 

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‘Pakistan can’t afford bullet trains’
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan cannot have bullet trains, even though this was one of the ruling party’s election promises, Khawaja Saad Rafique told the National Assembly on Tuesday.
When we asked the Chinese about it, they laughed at us. We should consider the 160kmph train under CPEC as a bullet train. We can’t afford an actual bullet train, there’s no market for it,” the railway minister said.
Admitting that their party had faced a lot of criticism over not launching the project, he said that the country didn’t have enough money to build one. “Even if we do, we don’t have such a big range of upper and middle class passengers who will buy tickets.”
In an articulate speech on the floor of the house, Mr Rafique gave members a comprehensive overview of the performance of his department and insisted that he was doing as much as possible to clean up the department and turn it into a profit-making entity.
Punjab, Sindh and Balochistan are not prepared to turn over railway land to the Pakistan Railways, preventing the department from using them to generate more revenue, he told the house.
Minister tells NA Punjab, Sindh, Balochistan refusing to turn over railway land
“The biggest problem with railway lands across the country is that they are owned by the provincial governments while being under the possession of Pakistan Railways. The provinces are not prepared to turn over these lands to us, despite a Supreme Court order to do so,” he said.
“There isn’t a chief minister I haven’t pleaded with over the past three-and-a-half years. Except Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, which turned over 90pc of such lands to us, the other provinces have not handed us a single marla.”
“How can we commercially exploit land whose title doesn’t belong to us?” he asked.
However, he clarified that land that was occupied by traditional dwellers or slum residents would not be touched. “How can we displace those people; where will they go?” he said, while vowing to act strictly against those who used railway land for commercial purposes.
He claimed 1,017 acres of land had been retrieved from encroachments during his tenure.
Although the minister was supposed to respond to a motion regarding the “non-utilisation of lands of Railways in the country”, he covered nearly all aspects of his department in his detailed remarks.
Narrating his experience of negotiating with the Chinese over projects related to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, the minister said that things were not as rosy as they appeared to be.
“We will not buy a pen worth Rs2 for Rs10, not while I am heading this department,” he said, explaining that the Asian Development Bank (ADB) had been asked to fund the Lahore-Peshawar section.
“Our Chinese friends have expressed their displeasure, but we’ve made it clear that we have the discretion. They should limit themselves to the Karachi-Lahore track, we will dualise the [up-country] tracks with the ADB,” he said.
Accusing previous administrations of mismanaging Pakistan Railways’ affairs, he detailed all the ills of the department he inherited — from adulterated and substandard food in dining cars to the practice of removing original parts from locomotives or cannibalising carriages to fix damaged bogies.
Although his predecessor Ghulam Ahmad Bilour was in the house when Mr Rafique began his remarks, the ANP member left the assembly once the minister began to take aim at his track-record.
Talking about the Karachi circular railway, he said that the project was wrongly distributed between the various governments, given that the bulk of the financial burden had been placed on the federal government. “We’re having problems running a national railway network; how can you expect us to build intra-city systems? Across the world, metros and local trains are run by independent authorities.
“Yes, state institutions must operate with a certain amount of losses, but it must break even.”
He also lamented that all trains are repaired manually. “We are looking to move towards greater automation of this process, which will help curtail human error and accidental deaths.”
 

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Govt fails to develop e-commerce rules
Despite an announcement last year, the government has failed to unveil e-commerce rules that would have allowed global online payment giants PayPal and Ali Baba to offer their services in the country.
Minister of State for Information Technology (IT) Anusha Rehman had announced last year that the government would solicit mechanism to coordinate with international e-commerce players such as PayPal and Ali Baba, encouraging them to establish their setup to enable e-commerce services in Pakistan.
The government had set introduction of ecommerce in the country a top priority area to counter the decline in exports. However, there was another issue as online shopping could result in increasing the import bill which would have declined the foreign exchange reserves.
An official source said that the IT Ministry initiated the work with the help of the commerce ministry but there were some turf issues between the two ministries that still remain to be resolved. The finance ministry was worried that the consumers may turn to buy foreign brands and that will be a big drain on hard to maintain reserves.
Pakistan had planned to invite global online payment giants. The move followed a decision by the global Financial Action Task Force to remove Pakistan from its list of high-risk and non-cooperative jurisdictions linked to money laundering.
Pakistan is now ranked in FATF’s white-list, meaning that Pakistan has now internationally accepted anti-money laundering and counter-terrorist financing standards in place which were previously not available.
But still neither US-based PayPal nor Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba (which operates a service called Ali pay) currently work inside Pakistan, as the country has strict regulation limiting online payments for services. The local vendors offer cash-on-delivery options.
Pakistan has a growing IT industry that mainly provides outsourcing services in the form of coding to major Western clients. IT exports, which account for around 10 per cent of the total services exports, are currently estimated close to $3 billion annually. The figure is based on estimate as the county IT exports are not properly maintained under the export head.
Pakistan launched high-speed mobile internet services 3G and 4G in 2014 and it helped increase the mobile broadband users significantly over the last two years.
Pakistan is also a leading country in mobile banking services but fear of erosion in foreign exchange reserves is holding the introduction of ecommerce in the country.
 

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Is Pakistan heading towards a debt trap?
If we’re not careful

So what exactly is Pakistan’s present debt profile? As per the figures released by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) in November 2016, the total Central Government debt as on 30.09.2016, stood at Rs19.9 trillion, ‘excluding liabilities’, and of which the domestic debt constitutes Rs14.4 trillion while external debt makes up Rs5.5 trillion. Meaning, this is excluding government’s contingent liabilities, which in their own right have swelled to nearly Rs1 trillion. What this latest debt number also means is that over the first quarter (July-September) of this fiscal year, the government added to the debt by some Rs858 billion, taking the debt to GDP ratio to nearly 69.50%, which in June 2016 stood at around 66.50%. The trend is rather alarming because despite government’s claim of being at the peak of debt’s bell curve, which theoretically meant that the national debt should have started to come down, it instead is going in the reverse direction! This, not withstanding, that when finishing the last fiscal year, the government to hide its inefficiencies had made a clever move to avert criticism over mounting debt by amending the ‘Fiscal Responsibility and Debt Limitation Act of 2005’, through a Finance Act that literally changed the debt goalposts. The Finance Ministry not only diluted the law but also got relaxed the statutory limit of restricting the public debt at 60% of GDP. Both the previous PPP government and the present PML-N governments have been in violation of this condition, but with the above master stroke the PML-N government has set a new statutory deadline of June 2018 to bring the debt back to 60% GDP level, as against the earlier deadline of June 2013.
The trouble is that Pakistan’s debt sustainability indicators have significantly worsened in the past years and especially in the last three years due to a high increase in foreign exchange and refinancing risks, which appears to be the result of reckless high cost borrowings. The average time to maturity of public debt fell in fiscal year 2015-16, which in-turn has increased the refinancing risks and similarly, the short term foreign currency debt as a percentage of official liquid reserves and net international reserves increased in fiscal year 2015-16, which in-turn increases the foreign currency risk. The government of course argues that its debt management strategy clearly sets target ranges for currency, refinancing and interest rate risks, and though quite a few indicators are currently in red, they still fall within the limits prescribed in its Medium Term Debt Management Strategy 2016-19.
It further takes heart from the some global statistics by citing that amidst a high prevalent global debt phenomenon, Pakistan’s current debt at around $73 billion (over a population base of 200 million) is still quite manageable in comparison with say for example, Greece $367 billion, Ireland $865 billion, Spain $1 trillion and Italy $1 trillion. Fine, but the underlying flaws in such an argument being that not only are all these failed economies, but also that they represent a single monetary block that gets balanced through a complex system of intra-regional monetary balancing mechanism overlooked by a rather dubiously accountable European Central bank. And then, Pakistan on the other hand is neither a European economy nor does it have the luxury of printing (at will) the second leading reserve currency of the world.
Pakistan’s debt profile presents an even bleaker picture when one starts to dissect the nature of its historical debt and the one that has been piled up in recent years. The historical debt profile has little to show for itself: national infrastructure fails to match that of any developed economy; public support systems of health, housing, utilities, education and social benefits remain unsatisfactory; stubborn poverty level stuck at about 30% or more; extremely narrow and small industrial base; and a top heavy public administration system that despite being inefficient has become further entrenched over time. To make matters worse, during the past three years, government has been on a borrowing binge, acquiring expensive foreign and domestic debt at commercial rates. Though it has repeatedly claimed that it is increasing its credit only to the extent of budget deficit requirements, the reality is quite different. For example, the increase in federal government’s debt from July-September 2016, adds up to Rs858 billion, whereas, the budget deficit in the same period was only Rs450 billion – only about half.
Now where is all this money going? It is the answer to this question that forms the real troubling part. Borrowing in itself is not essentially a bad thing as long as it can be spent in a productive manner. So, really if all these borrowing would have been put to productive use in self-sustaining projects or outlays, it would have been wonderful, because essentially the government could have claimed success in raising necessary investments and then putting them to use in a manner that not only generates growth, but also leaves the country richer in due course. Sadly, this has not been the case.
The growth continues to remain elusive at under 5% – private analysts say closer to 4% – and by all accounts unless the GDP growth rate shores up to 6.50% or beyond, the present level of debt may already be unsustainable. The problem is compounded by the fact that Pakistan’s exports are rapidly declining and foreign remittances have also slowed down considerably – both these trends are likely to continue in the near-term. Owing to slowdown in exports and provided external borrowing are not capped, Pakistan’s external debt to export ratio is projected to be at 442% by 2019-20, which obviously will make it un- serviceable. Exports, which used to finance 80% of imports in the early 2000s, now finance less than 50% of imports. Over the last decade, our exports have grown by merely 4% compared to 12% in Bangladesh and 10% in India. As for remittances, since they are negatively correlated with oil imports (bulk of remittances coming from the Gulf countries), the former are naturally slowing down due to oil prices being low. Finally, to as what do we have to show for these piled up liabilities? Answer: Not much – higher foreign exchange reserves that in effect are debt driven; public sector enterprises with a bottom-less subsidy pit; resurgent circular debt in the power sector; fancy projects that continue to run in red; and a three years spending spree that belies any kind of prioritisation, transparency or accountability. IMF in its last country report opined that for a developing country like Pakistan, 50% debt-to-GDP ratio should be considered prudent level, whereas, we seem to be miles away. No marks for guessing, unless the present debt strategy is quickly re-visited, Pakistan may well be fast slipping into a debt trap!
 

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Tax collection fell 5.8pc in November
ISLAMABAD: The revenue collection fell around 5.8 per cent year-on-year in November to Rs212 billion, according to provisional figures available with Dawn.
In October, the revenue collection stood at Rs233.7bn, a shortfall of Rs22.3bn against the target of Rs256bn. The shortfall was Rs59bn in the first quarter (July to September) of this fiscal year.
One reason behind the successive shortfalls was the unprecedented payment of sales tax refunds to exporters during the last few months, a tax official said.
In August, the government paid out around Rs25bn exclusively to exporters to clear mostly outstanding refunds.
Over and above this figure, the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) has released over Rs23bn of sales tax refunds of all taxpayers through the newly installed electronic transfer of refund system. Last year in November, the FBR paid only Rs3bn in refunds.
The FBR expected to receive Rs1bn to Rs2bn under the income tax when the revenue figures were finalised in the next few days, the tax official said.
Despite shortfalls, the FBR seems less worried as Pakistan is no more under the International Monetary Fund’s programme.
Another reason, pointed out by Finance Minister Ishaq Dar, for the shortfall in revenue collection was no change in oil prices for the past few months. A whopping Rs18bn loss was witnessed in the sales tax collection as petroleum prices remained steady in the July-September quarter.
To achieve the target in the current fiscal year, the FBR will now have to record a growth over 20pc in the next seven months.
The focus of the tax department will now be on six withholding taxes for which it will have to make extra efforts. Several small measures in income tax, sales tax and federal excise duty will also be taken to boost the revenue collection.
About Rs391bn of income tax was stuck in court litigation. Usually the settlement of such cases takes at least four months. This is another area which can help to get extra billions, the tax official said.
Another area with a revenue shortfall was the withholding tax collected on banking transactions.
The only reason for the shortfall was a slowdown in property transactions because of the upward revision in valuation tables. “We are expecting the resumption of property transactions in the months ahead,” the tax official said.
The government is also considering a tax amnesty scheme for property owners at a special tax rate of 3pc. This will also help the FBR to pocket extra billions.
Two new automation systems in sales tax have been introduced to plug loopholes that caused a revenue loss of billions of rupees. “We are expecting better revenue because of these measures,” the tax official said.
 

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Tax collection fell by 6%?What kind of country is this? Tax revenue falling,exports falling,even Literacy rate falling(yes,its true).
 

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Tax collection fell by 6%?What kind of country is this? Tax revenue falling,exports falling,even Literacy rate falling(yes,its true).
Obviously it's a country in free fall.:biggrin2:
They just resolved to say goodbye to imf and now this fall in revenue.

Now besharam govt of Pakistan will again beg for loans here and there.
 

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S.Korea's Kia to start assembling cars in Pakistan: Lucky Cement

South Korean carmaker Kia Motor Co will start assembling cars in Pakistan, according to a local partner that is planning to invest Rs12 billion ($115 million) to set up a plant and manufacture the Kia vehicles.

Karachi-listed Lucky Cement, which is part of the vast conglomerate Yunus Brothers Group, said in a statement on Thursday it planned to set up a new company to start "manufacturing, assembling" Kia vehicles.

It was not clear how much capital Kia itself would invest in the venture.

Representatives for the South Korean company could not immediately be reached for comment.

Kia cars had been assembled by Pakistan in the past but disappointing sales led to a halt in manufacturing.

The new venture will also market and sell, besides import and export of, "all types of Kia vehicles, parts and accessories," Lucky Cement told the Pakistan Stock Exchange in a statement.

Kia's re-entry into Pakistan will boost government efforts to shake up the Japanese-dominated car market and loosen the grip of Toyota, Honda and Suzuki, who assemble cars in Pakistan with local partners.

Last month, French carmaker Renault agreed to invest in a new factory in Pakistan and official say they are talking to several other carmakers.

The government believes increased competition should bring down exceptionally high car prices in Pakistan, and in March it introduced a new auto policy favouring new entrants into the market by offering generous import duties.

The incentives have angered existing market players, some of whom have said publicly they should get similar terms.

Pakistan, with a population of nearly 200 million people, is a potentially huge market, but just 180,000 cars were sold in the 2014/2015 fiscal year.

That compares with more than 2 million passenger vehicles a year in neighbouring India.
 

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Renault to produce cars in Pakistan
THE NEWSPAPER'S CORRESPONDENT

Nov 29, 2016

ISLAMABAD: Renault will start producing vehicles in Pakistan in 2018, the Board of Investment (BOI) announced on Thursday.

Miftah Ismail, the BOI chairman, told Dawn that the French car manufacturer had submitted its application to the government for the manufacture of vehicles. The application is now under process at the BOI and the Engineering Development Board.

This will be the first time that a European car manufacturer will set up a plant in Pakistan.

Mr Ismail said that Renault would initially make an investment of $100 million to produce 6,000 vehicles per shift at the plant set up by Ghandhara Nissan Motors in Karachi. A technical team of Renault visited the plant on Thursday. Renault intends to manufacture 16,000 vehicles in three shifts and to raise the production capacity to 50,000 in two phases.

According to the BOI chief, Renault will manufacture both SUVs and sedan cars.

Efforts will also be made to revive the manufacturing of Nissan vehicles in the same plant, he added.

Renault already has an alliance with Nissan since 1999, making it the longest running transnational partnership between two major manufacturers in the automotive industry. In 2013, Renault was the eleventh biggest automaker in the world by production volume.

Finance Minister Ishaq Dar led a Pakistan delegation to France in September to hold negotiations with leading French car manufacturers, Renault included..

The Economic Coordination Committee (ECC) had constituted a committee to review the auto policy and recommended fresh measures for expansion, investment and consumer protection. The committee was headed by Water and Power Minister Khawaja Muhammad Asif and included BOI Chairman Miftah Ismail.

The engineering side draft of the policy was prepared by the Engineering Development Board while the BOI chief took care of the financial aspect.

Published in Dawn, November 4th, 2016
 

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