Pakistan Defence budget analysis

Discussion in 'Pakistan' started by Ind4Ever, Jun 8, 2015.

?

Should India increase its defence budget to 5% GDP ? To crush paki economy?

  1. yes. This is one way we can punish pakimorons

    9 vote(s)
    42.9%
  2. No , we don't have to do it

    12 vote(s)
    57.1%
  1. Ind4Ever

    Ind4Ever Regular Member

    Joined:
    Apr 23, 2015
    Messages:
    197
    Likes Received:
    117
    Pakistan Defence budget analysis
    Published June 8, 2015 | By admin
    SOURCE: NATION PK

    [​IMG]

    Pakistan has reluctantly upped its defence budget for 2015-16 by 11 percent. Total defence outlay is Rs 700.2 billion as compared to Rs 627.2 billion allocated in the outgoing fiscal year, showing an increase of Rs 73 billion. The actual increase in defence expenditure is about 8% or Rs 63 billion when compared to the revised figures for 2014-15. Military had sought an increase of Rs 173 billion.
    Pakistan’s spending on military is the lowest as compared to the countries from whom it perceives a military threat. Earlier India had hiked its military spending by 11 percent. This year, India is spending 47 trillion rupees ($40 billion) on upkeep end readiness of its armed forces. India’s budget is more than five times Pakistan’s defence spending. In real terms India upped its budget by US$ 5 billion, which is only $ 2 billion short of Pakistan’s total budget—it represents an acute asymmetry which leaves many Pakistani defence analysts worried, because India is already the world’s largest weapon importer. India is expected to spend $100 billion over a decade on its defence upgrade programme.


    Out of Pakistan’s defence budget, Pakistan Army would get 48 percent while 20 percent goes to Pakistan Air force, and Navy’s share is 10 percent. Of Rs 700.2 billion, Rs 293.5 billion have been allocated for employees related expenses, Rs 180.2 billion for operating expenses and Rs 152.8 billion have been earmarked for physical assets. In line with earlier practice, figure of Rs700. 2 billion does not include Rs 163.4 billion allocated for pensions of the military personnel that would be given from appropriate heads of the national budget. This practice is followed by most of the countries including India.
    In addition, military would also be given Rs 165 billion under the contingent liability and Rs 85 billion under the Coalition Support Fund (CSF). Summing up the direct and indirect allocations, in real terms Rs 1113 billion have been allocated for the military, which is about 28.2 percent of the country’s total budget. CSF is the reimbursement of the expenditure by Americans after it has been incurred by Pakistan’s military in support of Afghan conflict related military activities and services; hence this is more of book adjustment action than a material allocation for the year 2015-16.
    An analysis of the defence budgets of previous years indicates that though during the preceding five years defence expenditure has almost doubled from around 350 billion in 2009-10 to Rs700 billion this year, the rate at which it has been increasing has continuously diminished. In 2009-10, government increased the defence budget by 21.46 per cent, which was reduced to 17.58 per cent in 2010-11. In 2011-12 the defence expenditure was upped by 14.73, which further dropped to 11.79 per cent in 2012-13. Given the internal security challenges much of the increase in this year’s defense budget by Pakistan is likely to be spent on the fight against militancy.
    Pakistan has four immediate neighbours China, Iran, Afghanistan and India alongside a long coastline to its South. Pakistan has no threat from China and Iran, in the traditional domain, there is no history of unmanageable threat from the sea side as well. Militarily, Afghanistan becomes a country of concern as and when it houses extra-regional forces on one pretext or the other; and threat recedes in-terms of military value when foreign forces depart. However, Pakistan has a history of facing an traditional threat from India in the form of the use of or threat to use military force—resulting into three wars and numerous standoffs. This threat is of existential magnitude. And to make the matters worse, Pakistan-India relationship is perpetually on tenterhooks, ready to ignite on mildest pretext. On the outbreak of any crisis, first thing that happens is breakdown of communications, followed by rapid climb on escalatory ladder, by India, to a level just a rung or two below actual shooting level, from where neither further climb is tenable nor a graceful descent remains a viable option for India, hence ending up in prolonged stalemates in the form of protracted deployment of militaries.
    Pakistan strives for a sustainable equilibrium in the South Asia. Higher conventional military asymmetry between India and Pakistan is one of the most serious threats to South Asian security. Indian actions and intent that radiate, aggravate and substantiate traditional threat are: India has a numerical advantage in personnel and inventory that varies between 1:3 and 1:5 in favour of India; Indian defence budget is more than five times the Pakistani defence budget and its robust economic growth supports such spending, thus creating dilemmas for Pakistan.
    India has an inclination to embrace dangerous doctrinal concepts. Ideas of limited warfare under nuclear overhang, Cold Start Doctrine or proactive operations and massive retaliation indicate provocative mind-set of Indian military command. Ongoing massive force modernization and conventional arms build-up by India is estimated to cost 120 billion spread over 10 years. The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) Fact Sheet released in March 2014 reveals that India was the world’s largest importer of major conventional weapons between 2008–13. India’s imports of major arms increased by 111 percent between 2004–2008 and 2009–13, making it the world’s largest importer. Its imports were 14 percent of the global total— almost three times larger than those of China and Pakistan.
    During 2009–13 India invested heavily in air-strike capabilities; received 90 of 222 Su-30MKI combat aircraft ordered from Russia. It also received 27 of a total of 45 MiG-29K combat aircraft for use on aircraft carriers. India has 62 Russian MiG-29SMT, 49 French Mirage 2000-5 and 36 French Rafael combat aircraft on order. During the next fiscal year, it is contemplating to order, 126 combat air-craft, 15 Apache attack helicopters, 22 CH-47F Chinook medium lift helicopters, 197 light helicopters and 145 Ultra-light Howitzers. Ongoing integrated missile development programme is being given capability enhancement related tasks. Moreover, exclusive capabilities like nuclear submarines, aircraft carriers, and long-range military air transport aircraft are under procurement. Cyber and space programmes are receiving focused attention. An anti-ballistic missile (ABM) system is undergoing operational trials. India also aspires for achieving a potent Space Warfare capability by positioning its weapons and command and control centres in the outer Space.
    By declaring China its principal enemy, India has forestalled the possibility of bilateral arms control and arms reduction arrangements between Pakistan and India. Indian Military capability put together on the pretext of China could be unleashed entirely against Pakistan. Over 80 percent of Indian arsenal is Pakistan specific and nearly 90 percent of its military command and control structures are Pakistan oriented. Despite its irrelevance to the conflict resolution, India continues its wheeling dealing for strategic foothold in Afghanistan, broadly focused to marginalize Pakistan’s influence.Its usage of Afghan territory for disruptive activities in FATA, Baluchistan and urban centres throughout Pakistan is an open secret.
    Due to a smaller economy Pakistan does not wish to match India weapon by weapon. Pakistan has proposed a Strategic Constraints Regime seeking mutual agreement on reduction of conventional forces and not deploying ABM systems etc. Apparently India is not interested in lowering the tensions, recent statements by Indian minsters indicate that India has embarked on a well-calculated anti-Pakistan policy.
    Under the circumstances Pakistan is under compulsion to maintain an increasingly expensive military capability to deter India from any misadventure. In this contest modest hike is Pakistan’s defence budget stands justified; even though Pakistan would like to reduce its military spending and divert the funding for social sector development. Unfortunately key yet defence spending cut is with India and not Pakistan.

    http://idrw.org/pakistan-defence-budget-analysis/
     
  2.  
  3. Srinivas_K

    Srinivas_K Senior Member Senior Member

    Joined:
    Jun 17, 2009
    Messages:
    4,674
    Likes Received:
    3,351
    I think India's defence budget is allocated based on the growing strategic interests in IOR and other parts of Asia.

    India is acquiring assets that can be used for providing security and safety to this region. Pakistan is a threat and I think if India continues its economic growth and defence plans ..... India will be in another league all together.

    India should be aiming at double digit economic growth, strong manufacturing and technological base to be a confident power on this globe.

    Simply put .... we should accelerate our defence and strategic vision, that will keep both the threats at bay.
     
    SANITY and Ind4Ever like this.
  4. Ind4Ever

    Ind4Ever Regular Member

    Joined:
    Apr 23, 2015
    Messages:
    197
    Likes Received:
    117
    If India has to grow and provide peaceful environment to south east Asia we must understand and get ready to take offensive steps towards China . Our strategic planning has been based on minimum deterrence and maximum defense.

    There no way to have minimum deterrent. How it can even exist ? Once there deterrence there will counter offensive from Chinese . 38 bil usd is not enough to protect 1.25 billion Indians and our trillions of dollar properties asserts . I spend 6000-9000 rs for my car as insurance but why only 38 billion or 30 bil average for the past decade ?

    Defence budget must be based on threats we have. One hand failed state Pakistan which literally spend everything on defence on the other hand we have China which trying to match Super powers like US . And am aware we can't spend 150 billion on defence budget given the size of economy. But we should at least have stop gap budget let say 30 bil $ goes to new procurement for the next 10 years and later we can come back to less aggressive budget ... 10 billion each year for each forces . That's will come around to 100 billion for each. Airforce , Army , Navy
     
  5. Ind4Ever

    Ind4Ever Regular Member

    Joined:
    Apr 23, 2015
    Messages:
    197
    Likes Received:
    117
    Hi srinivas :) how are u . True . Our navy needs to match up with PLAN which is expanding alarmingly . Sure they can't do anything deep inside our waters . But given the size of ours which is even smaller can protect our asserts and friends in SCS ? Better option would to partner with Vietnam and others and start new warships building shipyards in India to focus on exports . There by providing jobs to our people , providing warships to keep Chinese busy and so securing our interest globally and play a global leader in Asean security . This is what Chinese do . They give soft loans to all these cash strapped countries and provide Jobs in China . Now they get interest for the loan , jobs for Chinese people plus they strengthen their place globally .
     
    Srinivas_K likes this.
  6. Srinivas_K

    Srinivas_K Senior Member Senior Member

    Joined:
    Jun 17, 2009
    Messages:
    4,674
    Likes Received:
    3,351
    I am fine mate :)

    India as of now cannot match Chinese economy, but India can certainly match PLAN even excel it in IOR. IOR is our strength and strategic position.

    IN must make the IOR region an impenetrable fortress for India.

    You are correct, we need alliances and we need to form strategic partnerships with like minded countries like Japan, Vietnam, Phillipines, Singapore, S.Korea and other ASEAN nations.

    If we project India a decade or 15 years from today, I think we can match China in most of the areas and can take on any threat from China and Pakistan.

    Until that time we need to concentrate on building our economy and capabilities.
     
    SANITY and Ind4Ever like this.
  7. Raja.pakistani

    Raja.pakistani Regular Member

    Joined:
    Nov 17, 2011
    Messages:
    381
    Likes Received:
    63
    Most of this increase will be to finance the ongoing operation against the Pakistani Taliban (TTP), Operation Zarb-e-Azab ..stop this obsession of comparing budget with Pakistan and do what is best for your country
     
    manindra likes this.
  8. blueblood

    blueblood Senior Member Senior Member

    Joined:
    Jan 28, 2011
    Messages:
    1,871
    Likes Received:
    1,427
    We are, by spending a measly 1.8% of our GDP and by forcing Pak to match the spending we are doing exactly what is best for our country.

    A financially weaker Pak is much better for us than a militarily weaker Pak.
     
    brational likes this.
  9. Raja.pakistani

    Raja.pakistani Regular Member

    Joined:
    Nov 17, 2011
    Messages:
    381
    Likes Received:
    63
    Pakistan is spending according to what suit to their interests and is financially weaker because of internal reasons i.e poor governance and foreign policies. India cannot afford a military adventure with us as long as we are atomic power so there is no chance of full scale conventional war in this region. Pakistan has to concentrate on internal threats and less worry about India. History tell us that India never initiated a war because of certain conflicts during partition but it was always Pakistan. Financially weaker Pakistan will never lose anything if war start in this region so it will be india who will lose more if war begin lol
     
    SANITY and Srinivas_K like this.
  10. blueblood

    blueblood Senior Member Senior Member

    Joined:
    Jan 28, 2011
    Messages:
    1,871
    Likes Received:
    1,427
    So what next time Taliban attacks or when you run out of petroleum, again or get sick of load shedding you are going to send your 40 year T-59s to conquer Delhi or just nuke it.

    I have been reading your posts for quite sometime and defence strategies are not your strong suit so I humbly suggest that you stick to social issues threads.
     
  11. Raja.pakistani

    Raja.pakistani Regular Member

    Joined:
    Nov 17, 2011
    Messages:
    381
    Likes Received:
    63
    Where you have been reading my posts lol I never claimed to be the expert of defence analyst but its just common sense. If we are financially weaker then its because of polices of our own incompetent government and not because of India. What load shedding has anything to do with India .D Look at the results of American military adventures in poor backward countries and it was combined with strong NATO forces. We can say strongest on this planet but their economy loss big time and we cannot say surely whether they won these wars or lost them
     
  12. blueblood

    blueblood Senior Member Senior Member

    Joined:
    Jan 28, 2011
    Messages:
    1,871
    Likes Received:
    1,427
    Which is exactly my point. We don't want this situation to change. We want you to spend more and more money on arms and less on education, health and infrastructure.

    You already spend $2.5 billion each year on nuclear warheads which is a lot of money, the kind of money which you don't have.
     
  13. warrior monk

    warrior monk Regular Member

    Joined:
    Nov 24, 2014
    Messages:
    585
    Likes Received:
    730
    Location:
    Odisha
    Funny thing Pakistan's total Budget is lower than India's defence budget.
     
  14. blueblood

    blueblood Senior Member Senior Member

    Joined:
    Jan 28, 2011
    Messages:
    1,871
    Likes Received:
    1,427
    I think we are behind by $2 billion. But Inshaallah, the time will come soon enough when India's defence budget will be twice their budget. I would say somewhere around the middle of next decade.
     
  15. Blackwater

    Blackwater Veteran Member Veteran Member

    Joined:
    Jan 9, 2012
    Messages:
    20,983
    Likes Received:
    11,811
    Location:
    Akhand Bharat
    so who is funding Pakistan this time???

    China
    saudi
    arabs
    amreeka
    WB
    IMF

    who???
     
  16. ezsasa

    ezsasa Senior Member Senior Member

    Joined:
    Jul 12, 2014
    Messages:
    3,509
    Likes Received:
    3,044
    Location:
    Hyderabad, Andhra Pradesh, India
    All of the above :balleballe::scared2::pound::rofl::cowboy::hippo::facepalm:
     
  17. SANITY

    SANITY Regular Member

    Joined:
    Oct 16, 2014
    Messages:
    582
    Likes Received:
    229
    Location:
    NCR
    Do we have much to gain from an illiterate and unstable Pakistan compared to stable educated one?
     
  18. blueblood

    blueblood Senior Member Senior Member

    Joined:
    Jan 28, 2011
    Messages:
    1,871
    Likes Received:
    1,427
    Absolutely, only the "aman ka tamasha" types think that a stable Pak is in India's interest. A stable Pak gets to choose the battlefield, be it terror in the cities, be it terror in Kashmir, be it LOC firing, be it Kargil like intrusions.

    It's not just the army but the nation fights the war which means civilian population has to be in a supporting role in whichever way possible. But when half of your population can't read and 85% of your high school age children are out of school there is practically nothing you can offer to your army execpt cannon fodder, something which is not really needed in 21st century.

    If you want to better understand my point, look at the role of Territorial army in war and peace and why they prefer to recruit govt. professionals like employees of railways, telecom, electricity boards etc.
     
  19. Raja.pakistani

    Raja.pakistani Regular Member

    Joined:
    Nov 17, 2011
    Messages:
    381
    Likes Received:
    63
    Well its one point to look at it but if you look at different side then whenever there is instability in the neighbourhood then it has its impact on the other countries sharing the border. Instability in Afghanistan had its adverse impact on us . Political instability in east Pakistan made you interfere in war when huge bengali people started crossing the border. You were involved in breaking Pakistan in 1971 then what you achieved except hate and now illegal immigration from Bangladesh lol
     
    SANITY likes this.
  20. SANITY

    SANITY Regular Member

    Joined:
    Oct 16, 2014
    Messages:
    582
    Likes Received:
    229
    Location:
    NCR
    You speak very differently from common Pakistanis. The first in my experience to say India was made to interfere in 1971.

    Though, regarding instable Afghanistan, from what I have read so far, seems this is what Pakistan desires for fear of encirclement or loss of influence in the region. So they will need to change their strategy with Afghanistan as well if they want to focus on internal challenges.
    http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/orde...19-afghan-pakinstan-rapprochement-felbabbrown

    Anyway, I also think a stable Pakistan is best for region's development.
     
  21. 26/11

    26/11 Regular Member

    Joined:
    Mar 1, 2015
    Messages:
    82
    Likes Received:
    103
    Location:
    Ahmedabad
    That was totally different case. India was helping Bengalis to gain freedom. So, we allowed them to cross border.
    In case of Pakistan each guy trying to cross border will cost India only a bullet (Rs. 25 for each Baki). And I think we will be more than happy to bear this expenditure of bullet to help them get their 72.
     

Share This Page