Pakistan cannot sustain an 'Arms Race' with India

[Superdefender]

I heard a Pakistani TV discussion show on you tube. Pakistani panel was discussing that by 2050, Indian economy shall be 49 times larger than the economy of Pakistan. They said what shall happen to our status in the region. How can world recognize a country against India whose economy is is 2% of the india (Main enemy).

I heard a Pakistani TV discussion show on you tube. Pakistani panel was discussing that by 2050, Indian economy shall be 49 times larger than the economy of Pakistan. They said what shall happen to our status in the region. How can world recognize a country against India whose economy is is 2% of the india (Main enemy).

Lolz status. They are worried about status. Ha ha. Worry about your existance Pakis. In future, even Nigerian economy will be much ahead of you!

 

[Superdefender]

And Pak will not face economic crisis but social crises. Pak People will resort to riot. Who wants to live in a hell country when your neighourhood is getting mightier in wealth and power day by day! We can see another Saudi Spring in Pak just to join with India.

 

[HariPrasad-1]

Funny thing is that our nominal GDP could be larger than our GDP in PPP by 2050. :biggrin2:
Nigeria is said to become fastest growing economy of world by then.

By the way, how would pakistan watch us because then, we will have 4-5 times higher nominal GDP per capita and 3-4 times higher in PPP than pak by then? What do you think?

If i go by pakistani panel data, indian economy shall be 50 times larger. Population of pakistan is 1/7th. So indian per capita income should be 7 times higher i.e 50/7=~7.

This shall be true if Pakistan remains a nation which seems very unlikely. It shall be Pakistan (Punjab), Scind, Baluchistan, khaiber pakhtun etc

 

[HariPrasad-1]

And Pak will not face economic crisis but social crises. Pak People will resort to riot. Who wants to live in a hell country when your neighourhood is getting mightier in wealth and power day by day! We can see another Saudi Spring in Pak just to join with India.

yes, India Getting rich , peaceful and prosperous is a tight slap on 2 nation theory. As i heard one Pakistani lady arguing in Pakistani parliament that this is not the country Mohammad Ali Jhinha had promised us. One pakistani Shayar said that Julate hue registano ki khatir , mahekte gullista chood aye.

This is the situation of pakistan and it do not seem to improving.

 

[HariPrasad-1]

Lolz status. They are worried about status. Ha ha. Worry about your existance Pakis. In future, even Nigerian economy will be much ahead of you!

yes, it is unlikely to remain a single country.

 

[bengalraider]

I have been working in education sector in last 10 years, and I have seen the issues firsthand.
As I said, our human resources are still not up to mark. We have done well in couple of areas like services export, but overall economy is still limping forward.

Human resources are the key to a modern wealthy society.

Exports cannot grow exponentially, even software exports, as exports are dependent on demand in other countries. The target countries are stagnating today.

The domestic demand is not as strong, as it seems from cursory examination. The IIP is weak as domestic demand driver is not strong.

Human Resources need proper infrastructure to grow exponentially. We are still lacking in terms of educational institutions and access to them. While I agree with you that we lack in human resources I'd like to point out yet again that infrastructural development is a step in the right direction to increase human resource levels. The current program of "skill India" is also geared to improvement of human resources of the country.
Exports are dependent on manufacturing strength as well, as of today we simply do not stand a chance in front of the Chinese. However this looks to change as China grows to have a per capita HNI far larger than ours.We have the advantage of youth as well. Cheap, Young labor for a manufacturing force can do wonders if utilized effectively. We still have many bottlenecks in the legislative front as you have pointed out in your second post . Those are but temporary and will be removed as market forces require.

 

[garg_bharat]

@bengalraider, your points are good. However Chinese advantage is unlikely to vanish despite its higher per capita. China is not the only competitor of India. It is not appropriate to focus only on China.

For example East Europe is strong competitor in software services.

India needs investment in every area, not only infrastructure. Overinvestment in construction is also counter-productive as we have seen in many markets.

The growth rate of 7% cannot be sustained for a long period. I think long period growth rate will come down to 3-3.5%, if you extrapolate over next 30 years.

 

[Indx TechStyle]

If i go by pakistani panel data, indian economy shall be 50 times larger. Population of pakistan is 1/7th. So indian per capita income should be 7 times higher i.e 50/7=~7.

This shall be true if Pakistan remains a nation which seems very unlikely. It shall be Pakistan (Punjab), Scind, Baluchistan, khaiber pakhtun etc

No
Indian population in 2040-50 projected is 1.6 billions, meanwhile that for pak is 360 millions.
Moreover, Indian population will decline too after 2040.
So, per capita income will be much higher.
According to pakistani newspaper dawn, it will be 10.2 times higher in Nominal terms (PPP will be less).

Pakistan is not only loser. Today Britain is almost same as that of America in income and development but by 2050, they will have per capita income less than half of USA.

 

[Indx TechStyle]

The growth rate of 7% cannot be sustained for a long period. I think long period growth rate will come down to 3-3.5%, if you extrapolate over next 30 years.

It's possible if growth of professional class continues. This is same as China progressed in 1990s.
Something like East Asian growth model working in India.
We can maintain 7-7.5% growth easily for 15-20 years but other affairs are evidence that a country which is at the stage of India must grow much faster than 7.5%.
Hope, you understand.
7.5% growth is a cup of tea if watching India's expanding dominance and other attributes and perceptions, but we are well behind what best could be done.
So, we our potential is much higher as compared to our growth.

 

[bengalraider]

@bengalraider, your points are good. However Chinese advantage is unlikely to vanish despite its higher per capita. China is not the only competitor of India. It is not appropriate to focus only on China.

For example East Europe is strong competitor in software services.

India needs investment in every area, not only infrastructure. Overinvestment in construction is also counter-productive as we have seen in many markets.

The growth rate of 7% cannot be sustained for a long period. I think long period growth rate will come down to 3-3.5%, if you extrapolate over next 30 years.

The figure of a 47$ trillion PPP GDP is based on an actual growth of only 4.2% per annum between 2014 & 2050. Economists envisage a growth of 7-10% / annum for the next 15 years and a slowdown to 2-3% till 2050 . The average of 4.2% on the lower side is used to calculate the figures quoted.

 

[bengalraider]

I'd like to add that the slowdown described above is called the " middle income trap" . India may escape the trap and keep growing rapidly, but that remains to be seen

 

[garg_bharat]

The figure of a 47$ trillion PPP GDP is based on an actual growth of only 4.2% per annum between 2014 & 2050. Economists envisage a growth of 7-10% / annum for the next 15 years and a slowdown to 2-3% till 2050 . The average of 4.2% on the lower side is used to calculate the figures quoted.

I think figures are overly optimistic. I see coming decade as tough. 2016-2025 looks tough due to severe debt problems developing in major economies. There is a limit to which money can be printed.
The time period 2026-2040 is when real growth in India is expected, once a new economic cycle starts.

A growth rate of 7-10% in current depressed trade conditions can come if local investment is very strong. I would pick the lower of this range given the poor international trade, but chances are more of negative development.

 

[HariPrasad-1]

No
Indian population in 2040-50 projected is 1.6 billions, meanwhile that for pak is 360 millions.
Moreover, Indian population will decline too after 2040.
So, per capita income will be much higher.
According to pakistani newspaper dawn, it will be 10.2 times higher in Nominal terms (PPP will be less).

Pakistan is not only loser. Today Britain is almost same as that of America in income and development but by 2050, they will have per capita income less than half of USA.

true, I had this in mind but decided not to go in much detail. Thanks. Bloody 10.2 times is a hige difference. All muzzies will try to infiltrate in india. Better we start building a great wall right now.

 

[HariPrasad-1]

I have made some basic calculation.
8% growth rate shall push our economy 13.70% in 34 years. Moreover, 5% rise in rupee value should result in 5.25 times bigger economy. Both to gather should result into 72 time bigger economy in 34 years which means 165 TR USD economy by 2050. Our GDP in PPP is jumping by lapse and bounds . You must know that we had an economy 4.4 tr ppp in 2011 whch is about to touch 8 tr USD now. We have a right leadership in place now and there is no looking back.

 

[Bornubus]

Pkais knows this a Tank force of 3000 + and a Top 5 IAF and Navy can only be stop by Tactical Nukes.

Thus NASR.

But due to history and their Psyche they will always feel inferiority complex and will always afraid of us,even without any war.

 

[Superdefender]

Pakistan ‘very concerned’ at India’s military modernisation

• Prasun Sonwalkar, Hindustan Times, London
  |
• Updated: Feb 09, 2016 19:57 IST

File photo of Indian Navy’s aircraft carrier, INS Vikramaditya. Pakistan was particularly concerned with India acquiring advanced weapons systems. (AFP Photo)


Pakistan’s military establishment is said to be “very concerned” about the conventional military modernisation programme of the Narendra Modi government, and “frustrated” that no “deal” had been struck with India since the NDA came to power.

As the International Institute of Strategic Studies (IISS) published its annual “Military Balance 2016” report on Tuesday, Ben Barry, a senior expert who works with the military-strategic communities in India and Pakistan, said there was “great optimism” in Islamabad when Modi came to power.

“In the government and security community in Pakistan there was great optimism when Modi came to power, that he would be able to engage Pakistan and maybe strike a deal (normalisation of relations, reduction of tension over security),” Barry told HT.

“But I think there is some frustration in Islamabad that they haven’t been able to achieve that. We have contacts with the Pakistani military. I think they are very concerned about India’s conventional military modernisation.”

Barry, a former brigadier in the British army, said Pakistan was particularly concerned with India acquiring advanced weapons systems like Apache helicopters, C-130 Hercules aircraft and T-90 tanks. The India-US nuclear deal too remained a matter of concern in Islamabad.

According to the IISS expert, “We should take confidence that there hasn’t been a repetition of the terrible massacre in Mumbai. I may be proved wrong, though, but given the state of various extremist groups in Pakistan, it is very, very difficult for the Pakistani government to withdraw all of them. They may have had a hand in generating some of these and setting them up, but it’s quite difficult to turn them off.”

Barry said Pakistan Army chief Gen Raheel Sharif was able to “take advantage” of the 2014 massacre in an army-run school in Peshawar to launch Operation Zarb-e-Azb to clear North Waziristan of militant groups.

“There is no doubt that it has made considerable difference. Islamist terrorist groups and their capabilities have been considerably degraded by the Pakistan Army and the police,” Barry said.

The “Military Balance 2016” report details various initiatives taken by the Modi government to encourage FDI and private sector participation in defence, and lists the personnel and assets of India’s armed forces and reserve forces.

“The Indian government’s ‘Make in India’ policy aims to strengthen the indigenous defence-industrial base through measures that include reforming India’s foreign direct investment cap. However, industrial-capability limitations and bureaucratic obstacles have hampered a number of promising initiatives,” it said.

Focussing more on developments related to Russia, China, Iran and NATO, the analysis states that western military technological superiority is eroding due to the proliferation of advanced military capabilities and growing accessibility to military-relevant high technology around the world.

Source: International Institute for Strategic Studies, London

 

[Indx TechStyle]

I think figures are overly optimistic. I see coming decade as tough. 2016-2025 looks tough due to severe debt problems developing in major economies. There is a limit to which money can be printed.
The time period 2026-2040 is when real growth in India is expected, once a new economic cycle starts.

A growth rate of 7-10% in current depressed trade conditions can come if local investment is very strong. I would pick the lower of this range given the poor international trade, but chances are more of negative development.

As I said before:
Yet GDP could be smaller if population declines before our expectation.

It's possible if growth of professional class continues. This is same as China progressed in 1990s.
Something like East Asian growth model working in India.
We can maintain 7-7.5% growth easily for 15-20 years but other affairs are evidence that a country which is at the stage of India must grow much faster than 7.5%.
Hope, you understand.
7.5% growth is a cup of tea if watching India's expanding dominance and other attributes and perceptions, but we are well behind what best could be done.
So, we our potential is much higher as compared to our growth.

Better we start building a great wall right now.

India Planning a Separation Wall in Kashmir
Not only this, these walls will be equipped with several automatic guns and security systems.
There's threads and details about it more in Army Section.
It will be like security systems in Hollywood Movies.

 

[bengalraider]

I think figures are overly optimistic. I see coming decade as tough. 2016-2025 looks tough due to severe debt problems developing in major economies. There is a limit to which money can be printed.
The time period 2026-2040 is when real growth in India is expected, once a new economic cycle starts.

A growth rate of 7-10% in current depressed trade conditions can come if local investment is very strong. I would pick the lower of this range given the poor international trade, but chances are more of negative development.

India is already doing more than 7% growth, this is despite legislative changes like GST,land and labor being blocked. This blockade should clear in the near future, I believe we will cross 8% growth by 2018 on the back of infrastructure spending and legislative changes alone, add to that the human resources fillip from the skill India programme and the effect of even 25% of the committed 421$billion in FDI being realized in reality. The DMIC alone should push GDP up by a percentage point when complete. I think your analysis is painfully flawed , from a country specific point of view India shall grow at 7% or higher for the next 20-25 years at least. That's until we too hit the middle income trap and achieve per capita incomes of 4,500$ & above.
What happens then is another story altogether.

 

[garg_bharat]

@bengalraider, I hope so too. But it will not happen, as global growth is slowing down. A lot of jobs in India are dependent on global growth. India is not isolated anymore.
The current year projection is unlikely to be met. We shall come back to this topic 6 months in future.
Then you will understand my words better.

The private investment picture in India is weak. IIP is weak. A lot depends on overseas factors as how services growth pans out.

FDI is a paper tiger, as world is reeling in overcapacity.

 

[Indx TechStyle]

That'sThat's until we too hit the middle income trap and achieve per capita incomes of 4,500$ & above.

I guess you're saying $45000 and not $4500 as our per capita income is $6664 significantly higher than all South Asian Countries (except Sri Lanka) and closer to Southeast Asians.
Yet our per capita income growth rate is higher which will put us ahead of them as well soon.