Pakistan army warns of ‘disproportionate response’ in future wars

Discussion in 'Defence & Strategic Issues' started by kseeker, Dec 5, 2013.

  1. kseeker

    kseeker Retired

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    Pakistan army warns of ‘disproportionate response’ in future wars - The Hindu

    - PRAVEEN SWAMI

    “Army’s mother document” says growing Indian military power “disturbs strategic equilibrium of the region”

    Pakistan’s official Army Doctrine calls on the country to “invoke disproportionate responses” in future wars with India, a copy of the document obtained by TheHindu has revealed. “The causes of conflict with the potential to escalate to the use of violence,” the classified internal document states, “emanate from the unresolved issue of Kashmir, the violation of treaty arrangements on sharing of natural resources, and the organised and deliberate support by external powers to militant organisations.”

    The December, 2011, Doctrine does not name any country as a threat, but Pakistan has accused India of seeking to block its access to Indus waters, and backing terrorism. The Doctrine describes itself as the “army’s mother document” and “the fountainhead for all subordinate doctrines.”

    Indian military sources told TheHindu the study was commissioned in the summer of 2008, soon after former chief of army staff General Pervez Kayani took office. It evolved through intensive discussions of the Kargil war of 1999 and the near-war that followed the December, 2011, terrorist attack on Parliament House

    Georgetown University scholar Dr. C. Christine, author of a forthcoming book, Fighting to the End, says the Doctrine confirms what scholars have long known. “It tells us several interesting things,” she says, “among them that the Pakistan army sees Indian military modernisation as a threat, but that they also think nuclear weapons will insulate them from the consequences of pursuing high-risk strategies, like backing jihadist clients.”

    Future wars, the Doctrine states, “will be characterised by high-intensity, high-tempo operations under a relatively transparent battle-space environment.” This, it states, is because of the “incremental increase in asymmetry of conventional forces and [the] nuclear overhang” — evident references to the programme of rapid modernisation India put into place after the 2001-2002 crisis, and both countries’ efforts to expand their nuclear weapons capabilities.

    In the view of the Doctrine’s authors, de-facto parity between the two countries induced “through a combination of conventional and nuclear deterrence, has obviated the [likelihood of] conventional war.”

    However, the Doctrine argues, “a disparity at the conventional plane continues to grow disproportionately, which too disturbs the strategic equilibrium of the region.” This, it states, “depletes peaceful diplomacy and dialogue, replacing it with coercion on the upper planes and violence across the lower-ends of the spectrum.”

    “What worries Pakistan’s army,” says the former Indian Army vice-chief, Arvinder Lamba, “is their inability to organise offensive or defensive responses to our growing rapid mobilisation capacity. Their challenge is to deter us from striking by threatening nuclear weapons use in the face of the least provocation.

    “India’s government and military must seek perceptual clarity on exactly what we intend to do in the face of such threats,” he said.

    The Doctrine states that Pakistan will use nuclear weapons “only as a last resort, given its scale and scope of destruction.” Nuclear parity between India and Pakistan, it argues, “does not accrue any substantial military advantage to either side, other than maintaining the status quo.”

    “In a nuclear deterrent environment,” it adds, “war is unlikely to create decisive military or political advantage.” However, it argues that “integration and synergy between conventional and nuclear forces, maintaining both at an appropriate level… [will avoid] an open-ended arms race.”

    It does not state what the red lines compelling nuclear weapons use might be, but says future strategic “force development centres around developing and maintaining credible minimum deterrence, based on a [land, sea and air] triad, including an assured second-strike capability [to an Indian nuclear first-strike].”

    “Lots of this thinking has been operationalised in Pakistan’s military,” says Rana Banerjee, a New Delhi-based expert on the Pakistan army, and former Research and Analysis Wing official. “Basically, this document signals they intend to react to even limited Indian military operations with disproportionate force, and hope fear of escalation deters New Delhi from reacting to events like 26/11.”
     
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  3. Ray

    Ray The Chairman Defence Professionals Moderator

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    Re: Pakistan army warns of ‘disproportionate response’ in future w

    Pakistan has a death wish!
     
  4. kseeker

    kseeker Retired

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    Re: Pakistan army warns of ‘disproportionate response’ in future w

    And we will grant them that :D
     
  5. jmj_overlord

    jmj_overlord Regular Member

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    Re: Pakistan army warns of ‘disproportionate response’ in future w

    those guys never learn their lessons..........bragging to do this and that under the shadow of their chini brothers
     
  6. Singh

    Singh Phat Cat Administrator

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    Re: Pakistan army warns of ‘disproportionate response’ in future w

    Parliament was attacked in 2001 and not 2011.
     
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  7. Singh

    Singh Phat Cat Administrator

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    Re: Pakistan army warns of ‘disproportionate response’ in future w

    Quick thoughts:

    Pakistani Military knows that it'll not be able to resist the onslaught of Cold-Start. Their response will be to try and escalate any confrontation to nuclear levels.
    Earlier they toyed with the idea of nuking their own territories with battlefield nukes to slow down India, now they are threatening to go on an all out nuclear war.
     
  8. pkroyal

    pkroyal Regular Member

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    Re: Pakistan army warns of ‘disproportionate response’ in future w

    In erstwhile Japan when Samurai,s ruled the country with the Monarch as the titular head,

    Ceremonial suicide was committed by a Samurai for an act of dishonour.

    The Japanese word for this is 'Seppuku' ( dying with honour), it involves slitting the stomach with a sharp knife, the British picked up this word ( Hara kiri) the actual act of disembowelment & made it famous across the world. Such ceremonies were solitary or assisted. When a Samurai flinched or had problems with 'Seppuku" his second ,standing next to him beheaded that person with one stroke of his samurai sword, so that honour while dying was maintained,

    Now Pakistan must decide, will it be an assisted suicide or a solitary one, we( IA) are ready to abet & assist this noble act.
     
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  9. kseeker

    kseeker Retired

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    Re: Pakistan army warns of ‘disproportionate response’ in future w

    Good catch :thumb: Perhaps, it was a typo which has been ignored by the author.
     
  10. kseeker

    kseeker Retired

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    Re: Pakistan army warns of ‘disproportionate response’ in future w

    I bet, they will beg for our (Armed forces of India) assistance :D
     
  11. Singh

    Singh Phat Cat Administrator

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    Re: Pakistan army warns of ‘disproportionate response’ in future w

    @pkroyal @Ray

    Scenario Building : There is a major terror strike in India. India launches Cold Start. Cold-Start is extremely successful.

    What do you think Pak's response will be ?
     
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  12. Singh

    Singh Phat Cat Administrator

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    Re: Pakistan army warns of ‘disproportionate response’ in future w

    Hastily written article ?

    If Christine Fair is aware of this doctrine, that means it has been leaked to the Think Tanks and Swami wanted to get this report printed asap before others pick it up
     
  13. Free Karma

    Free Karma Senior Member Senior Member

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    Re: Pakistan army warns of ‘disproportionate response’ in future w

    What is the reason for this sudden noise from Pakistan that we're seeing?

    Just last month he was saying friendship/rainbows, now it's the other way. Are they planning something?

    They really cant afford anything, given the state of their country, they are not even in full control...strange.
     
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  14. kseeker

    kseeker Retired

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    Re: Pakistan army warns of ‘disproportionate response’ in future w

    Yes, that makes sense.
     
  15. pkroyal

    pkroyal Regular Member

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    Re: Pakistan army warns of ‘disproportionate response’ in future w

    @ Singh

    This nuclear sabre rattling by Pakistan has been going on for a considerable period of time.

    Time to call the bluff !

    Some of their nuke missiles are going to prove to be dud's (something like the scud missile).

    India will not resort to cold start even if there is a major terror strike, it will most likely respond by a missile attack on some important facility in Pak, in congruence with a covert operation with SF troops on multiple militant training camps which are located well forward closer to the LoC.

    Aim will be to avoid unnecessary civilian casualties ( thus inviting International opprobrium) but teaching a hard lesson with militant casualties to show for reasons for a strike.

    The response in any case will be a graduated response.

    Nukes will not be used by Pak even TNW's ( Tactical Nuclear Weapons) as it will invite an asymmetrical response from India. Leading to their decimation
     
    Last edited: Dec 5, 2013
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  16. kseeker

    kseeker Retired

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    Re: Pakistan army warns of ‘disproportionate response’ in future w

    Man... You stole my thoughts !

    On one hand they are pleading for friendship, this, that :blah: :blah: :blah: on the other hand, they are issuing threats ! :tsk:

    Though it's funny, I am no Nostradamus however, don't know why, I have this bad feeling that, something nasty would be awaiting for India in near future !
    @Decklander,

    An thoughts on upcoming war (?) w.r.t. astrological perspective ?
     
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  17. Decklander

    Decklander New Member

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    Re: Pakistan army warns of ‘disproportionate response’ in future w

    A short nuke war in Punjab is very much predicted by many astrologers and it will result in unification of India with extremely high deaths in Pak Punjab.
     
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  18. Vishwarupa

    Vishwarupa Senior Member Senior Member

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    Re: Pakistan army warns of ‘disproportionate response’ in future w

    Plus division of pakistan into 4 parts.
     
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  19. Ray

    Ray The Chairman Defence Professionals Moderator

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    Re: Pakistan army warns of ‘disproportionate response’ in future w

    With the Cold Start, Pakistan cannot use the nuclear option since it will be a shallow bridgehead (for the want of a better word) that threatens no strategic areas of Pakistan, excepting their ego and a chunk of territory.
     
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  20. CrYsIs

    CrYsIs Regular Member

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    Re: Pakistan army warns of ‘disproportionate response’ in future w

    It's clear that the establishment in Pakistan is hallucinating, probably drank too much bhaang.


    If Pakistan is thinking of launching a disproportionate attack,India would decimate it beyond recognition.

    Pakistan should realize that it's foriegn aid funded military's capability is nowhere near India.

    It has no industrial or scientific base.It's economy is in ruins.It's in the league of top failed states right along with somalia,Afganistan and congo.

    Instead of building bridges and sending the message of peace they are sending veiled threats.We in India must give a befitting reply to it.
     
  21. Virendra

    Virendra Moderator Moderator

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    Re: Pakistan army warns of ‘disproportionate response’ in future w

    It is a classic delay and delude tactic. Flipflops of blowing hot and cold are an integral part of it.
    What did Japan do with US for months in the name of diplomacy and dialogue .. before Pearl Harbor?
     
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