Odisha, Bihar growing faster state in India than Gujarat

Discussion in 'Economy & Infrastructure' started by KS, Nov 9, 2011.

  1. KS

    KS Bye bye DFI Veteran Member

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    Nitish steals Modi’s growth thunder, but Guj still miles ahead

    Nitish steals Modi’s growth thunder, but Guj still miles ahead | Firstpost


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    Bihar is India’s new growth tiger. Thanks to the return of the rule of law under Nitish Kumar and steadily rising investments in infrastructure, Bihar clocked a superfast 14.15 percent state GDP growth rate in 2010-11, topping Tamil Nadu’s 11.74 percent and Gujarat’s 11.58 percent.

    Chhattisgarh, with 11.57 percent, and Maharashtra with 10.47 percent, are the other two states with double-digit growth rates last year.

    Is Narendra Modi’s Gujarat, the poster-boy for development and growth, losing out to Nitish Kumar’s Bihar?

    Not by a long chalk. For one, Bihar’s growth is on a low base. Gujarat’s economy is more than two-and-a-half times Bihar’s. Bihar’s economy is also more dependent on agriculture (22 percent) and services (74 percent) than Gujarat – which makes the former’s growth volatile from year to year depending on the monsoons and flood damage.

    Where Nitish Kumar’s Bihar will make a difference by growing fast is in labour costs. PTI
    Bihar has less than 5 percent of its GDP coming from industry while Gujarat has nearly 28 percent. Gujarat is streets ahead in manufacturing – which, going ahead, is likely to be the growth driver under the New Manufacturing Policy (NMP), and the proposed development of the Delhi-Mumbai Integrated Corridor (DMIC).

    But the growth stakes are no longer just a Narendra Modi versus Nitish Kumar affair. Other states too are gearing up for faster growth, including former laggards like Chhattisgarh and Uttar Pradesh.

    In 2010-11, Uttar Pradesh managed a decent 8.08 percent GDP rise – nothing spectacular, but a big jump from past levels of 2-4 percent, and its track record of waywardness. Given that Uttar Pradesh is India’s second largest state in terms of GDP behind only Maharashtra – any pick-up means a huge growth in absolute terms.

    In 2009-10, the year in which full comparable figures are available, Maharashtra had a state GDP of $190 billion, Uttar Pradesh of $109 billion and Gujarat of $90 billion (Source: Wikipedia).

    Despite the rise of Bihar as a growth tiger, its overall impact on India’s growth story will be less than that of Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Gujarat. Reason: its low overall size of economy.

    A Maharashtra averaging 10 percent growth in the next 10 years (from 2009-10) would reach $492 billion by 2019-20, and Gujarat would reach $233 billion. But a Bihar growing at the same rate would reach just about where Gujarat is today – $93 billion.

    Uttar Pradesh, on the other hand, would be as big as Gujarat even if were to grow slower at 8 percent; if it grew at 10 percent, it would be $50 billion ahead of Gujarat at $282 billion by 2020.

    In short, thanks to the base effect, India’s ability to reach double-digit growth rates once we overcome the current crisis of slowing growth and inflation will depend on the Big 5 of Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Gujarat – who collectively account for nearly 45 percent of the country’s GDP.

    However, where Nitish Kumar’s Bihar will make a difference by growing fast is in labour costs. Thanks to no stagnation in the past, Bihar was India’s biggest labour supplier of unskilled labour. Now, with growth zooming, and with the availability of guaranteed jobs under the National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (NREGA), Biharis are no longer rushing to Punjab, Delhi, Mumbai and other metros in search of construction or farm jobs.

    Not surprisingly, The Economic Times reports that the real estate and infrastructure sectors are feeling a huge labour pinch. “Migrant labour from the state constitutes around 50 percent of the unskilled workers employed in these sectors nationally.” The paper says wage bills for the realty and infrastructure sectors are up by 35-50 percent.

    The bottomline is this: growth will be driven by the Big 5; but Bihar’s growth will impact the rest by soaking up the supply of unskilled labour.

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    Very happy to see even the formerly laggard states growing at full pace..The true development will only come when these grow and not when the already developed states develop further. Hats off to Mr.Nitish :namaste:
     
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  3. utubekhiladi

    utubekhiladi The Preacher Elite Member

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    one of this guys should become president and other guy should become prime minister. India bohat aage nikal jayeega
     
  4. KS

    KS Bye bye DFI Veteran Member

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    I disagree..One of them the PM and another a Home Minister or Commerce Minister.

    President is a rubber stamp that any dumbo can be.
     
  5. Galaxy

    Galaxy Elite Member Elite Member

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    I will prefer Narendra Modi as P.M and Nitish Kumar as Dy P.M may be or some important ministry like Finance, Railway, etc. President is just rubber stamp.
     
  6. thakur_ritesh

    thakur_ritesh Administrator Administrator

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    it is fascinating to see the numbers chhattisgarh is able to clock. we always talk about other states, but here is a state severely infested by maoist terror, but still some astounding numbers.

    can someone please share reports and detailed analysis on chhattisgarh on what is it that they have been doing consistently correct. thanks.

    at least the media reports suggest raman singh is a fine CM.
     
  7. Singh

    Singh Phat Cat Administrator

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    Except Maharashtra, all the top performing states are non-Congress ruled states.
     
  8. LurkerBaba

    LurkerBaba Staff Administrator

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    The growth numbers in Bihar are mainly due to huge boost in consumption as the law and order situation improved. Nitish's main challenges would be land reforms and industrialization
     
  9. Singh

    Singh Phat Cat Administrator

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    curbing population growth and "brain drain", developing basic infrastructure
     
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  10. LurkerBaba

    LurkerBaba Staff Administrator

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    Yeah, population growth needs to curbed. The current fertility rate (around 4) is insane
     
  11. nitesh

    nitesh Mob Control Manager Stars and Ambassadors

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    I just came back, astonished to see the all round development happening. What Raman sir has done right is that, he has given preference to infrastructure development, which in turn giving impetus to other industries. BSP (Bhilai Steel Plant)is always there, not got permission to visit the new rail facility for 260m rails. Too much of security around. A new city is coming up for capital. Good thing is that they have planned for the water supplies already. Lot of small dams near by to hold the water. Electricity supply is consistent, which gives incentives to industries. Lot of ancillary units churning out different products. Government is taking out encroached lands, trying to widen up the roads before the situation goes out of hand, but the new four lane highways are also a problem, as you see the fully loaded trucks speeding above 105 consistently (I am sure about this as I was touching 105 in my Pulsar :D, damn Bhilai to Raipur 37km in less then half an hour). Good thing is lot of underpass, flyovers in construction to allow smooth traffic at the highways, and the populated centers doesn't get effected, it is not enough though as average death toll is 2 per day due to speeding vehicles. I heard there is plan to put a metro between Bhilai and Raipur (totally underground). Bilaspur to Nagpur 3 track rail is in Operation (I have seen it till Gondia, never got a chance to go till Nagpur, so can not confirm it surely).

    New Army training facility is coming up. I have seen envoys moving to set up the infrastructure for that. This will serve as training ground for Jungle warfare. Huge facility coming up for IA (I think 10k acre land is allocated for Army use).

    Things need to be done:

    The Bastar area needs more attention, although plan is there to convert the non arable land to plant jathopatra, and turn C.G. in to a hub for bio diesel. But not got enough data points, about how it is supposed to be implemented. There is no other way to cut this Red menace other then all round economic development. With Army's permanent presence, I feel the things will get in control sooner.
     
  12. KS

    KS Bye bye DFI Veteran Member

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    My project mate is from Sitamarhi,Bihar and he could not stop singing paeans of Mr.Nitish's development work and how he has drastically improved the law and order situation, improved road and electric infrastructure and the overall industrial environment over there.

    Raman Singh, Nitish Kumar ,Modi, Tarun Gogoi, Shivraj Chauhan..these are some of the guys who still give me some hope in the Indian demo'crazy'.
     
    Last edited: Nov 9, 2011
  13. nasavsisro

    nasavsisro Regular Member

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    GANDHINAGAR: Contrary to Gujarat government's tall claim that the state's growth rate is highest in the country, latest statistics culled out from ministry of statistics and programme implementation (MOSPI) data suggest just the opposite.

    While the state government has still not handed over the data of gross state domestic product (GSDP) for the last financial year to the Government of India, its own budget documents reveal that the GSDP growth in 2011-12 over the previous year, at current prices, was 15.20 per cent. :confused:

    Comparable MOSPI statistics show that the all-India Gross Domestic Price ( GDP) grew in 2011-12 at 15.68 per cent (also at current prices), or exactly 0.48 per cent higher than that of Gujarat. Worse, nine major states, including backward states like Bihar, Odisha and Chhattisgarh, have registered a higher rate of growth than Gujarat. Notably, the current prices data do not discount rate of inflation prevailing during the year. The 15.20 per cent rate of GSDP growth of Gujarat is shown only in one state document - "Statement under the Gujarat Fiscal Responsibility Act, 2005". It was released during the recent session of the state assembly.

    The nine states which registered a higher rate of growth are Bihar (20.39 per cent), Haryana (17.10 per cent), Himachal Pradesh (15.34 per cent), Kerala (17.94 per cent), Chhattisgarh (15.28 per cent), Odisha 16.00 per cent), Tamil Nadu (16.04 per cent), West Bengal (16.03 per cent) and Uttarakhand (15.73 per cent).

    Interestingly, none of the official papers so far released by the state government show Gujarat's GSDP growth rate at constant prices, calculated after discounting inflation. Calculated at 2004-05 prices, most states have released their advance estimates (AEs) of GSDP data at constant prices, and handed these over to the GoI. The all-India rate of growth for 2011-12 has been put at 6.88 per cent.

    A senior government official told TOI that the state government has "still not calculated" the AEs of GSDP at constant prices, but added, "We believe it will be higher than the national average."

    The official further said, the state budget document which released the AEs for current prices "may not be exact... We haven't yet finished our calculation", he insisted.

    Source:Times of India


    :namaste:
     
  14. Daredevil

    Daredevil On Vacation! Administrator

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    Odisha and Bihar are relatively backward states and therefore have a lower base on which to grow and therefore the growth rate of them appear higher. Comparison with other states in such terms is futile and useless.

    Consider the example of a wealthy man (Gujarat) with 100 crores wealth earning 10 crores versus a another man (Bihar) having a wealth of 100 lakhs earning 15 lakhs. Now who is earning more?
     
  15. Predator

    Predator Regular Member

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    typical of TOI, even before official statistics are released they bring out news piece attacking Gujarat. now comment section of TOI will turn into a all-out war. TOI has mastered the art of inciting passion among its readers and profiting from the ad revenue so generated
     
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  16. iNDiAN.96

    iNDiAN.96 Nationalist Senior Member

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    Official data still not released by Gujarat government but somehow TOILet paper made news from it. :lol:
     
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  17. TTCUSM

    TTCUSM Regular Member

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    North India growing faster than the South:

     
  18. trackwhack

    trackwhack Tihar Jail Banned

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    North India must grow faster than the south. This is good news.
     
  19. Mad Indian

    Mad Indian Proud Bigot Veteran Member Senior Member

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    Guys, its Growth in terms of current Prices(nominal growth, ie, real growth + INFLATION) and not Constant prices(real growth). Wait till the statistics on real growth comes out.

    For instance, Pakistan's GDP growth for 2008 was supposed to be 20+% and of course it was in Nominal terms. So will you claim that Pakistan grew faster than India?:nod:
     
  20. utubekhiladi

    utubekhiladi The Preacher Elite Member

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    TOI is mouth piece of congress.. what else do u need
     
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  21. Ray

    Ray The Chairman Defence Professionals Moderator

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    Good show and three cheers for Odisha and Behar!
     

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