Odds against an Asian Maskirova

Discussion in 'Defence & Strategic Issues' started by Soham, Feb 25, 2010.

  1. Soham

    Soham DFI TEAM Senior Member

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    I was wondering about the factors that keep us from a strong alliance with China. Do you think some of these are removable ?
    Also, is it even a viable possibility considering our relations with US and Russia and close China-Pak co-opeation ?

    I think this topic certainly deserves a deep thought - Rise of Asia.
     
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  3. Agantrope

    Agantrope Senior Member Senior Member

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    This wont happen in near future. Two Reason,
    Someone want us to fight to curb our development
    Ideology differences will make them fight unless they dont have any mutual benefit.
     
  4. Soham

    Soham DFI TEAM Senior Member

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    In my opinion, the biggest barriers are the following. Some of them removable, some of them needing drastic u-turns.

    1. Land disputes - Resolvable. Compromise by both sides can get this out of the table. However, it depends a lot on resolve and domestic opposition to such decisions. Its still doable, though.
    2. Pakistan - The word in itself is enough. If I have my history right. Pakistan-China alliance was more to do with countering the encirclement of China with Soviet influence. Again, if something mutually beneficial comes up for both sides, its doable, though much harder than the 1st.

    3. Our growing relations with the west, and already established relations with Russia. How do we dodge this problem ? I have no idea !



    On the other hand, an Indo-China alliance will be a game changer for the world. Good or bad, I don't know. For one, I don't think the Government systems would matter much.
     
  5. Soham

    Soham DFI TEAM Senior Member

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    What if their development is bolstered by this alliance ? Its certainly will. Their missiles will begin to look East, as well.

    Ideological differences did not stop Soviet-Indian and Sino-American alliances in the past.
     
    Last edited: Apr 1, 2010
  6. johnee

    johnee Elite Member Elite Member

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    Good topic, Soham. This topic certainly deserves a lot of discussion. I would say that we can have workable relation with China but first and foremost we need to prove to China that we are not pushovers. China would be interested in a mutually benefitting relationship with us only when it understands that we have some strengths that can come handy to it.
     
  7. Yusuf

    Yusuf GUARDIAN Administrator

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    I think the only thing that holds the relationship between india and china is what happened 40 years ago. Much as we may wish to move on, its a very deep wound on our psyche. India had a vision of cooperation with the Chinese, but the reply brutally hurt us. No matter how high the trade figures between the two countries go, how much we may try to normalize relationships but we will keep looking over our shoulders to make sure a repeat of the past doesn't happen again.

    Also as both countries develop further and eat into scarce resources, they will be competing than cooperating. There is a potential conflict there as well.

    All in all, a potential to cooperate is humongous, but the chances of it happening is just as small.
     
  8. Vinod2070

    Vinod2070 मध्यस्थ Stars and Ambassadors

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    Well, if USA and China can cooperate and compete at the same time, so can we.

    The issue is the lack of trust or rather mistrust about each other's intentions.

    India believes that China wants to limit us to South Asia and China believes that we are ganging up on her with others.
     
  9. johnee

    johnee Elite Member Elite Member

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    Yusufji, we have always been taught that China betrayed us by declaring a war while we were chanting 'hindi-chini bhai bhai'. I wanted know whether this is a complete truth or only a half truth as in was India completely innocent? Did India do nothing to trigger Chinese reaction?

    Anyway, in the long term what happened 40yrs ago was good for us. It woke us up from a deep slumber. Till then, it seemed that our foreign policy was based on idealism rather than realpolitik. Also, the history keeps us on toes, so even if in the future, we can build bridges with China we would be looking over our shoulders all the time and I think thats good thing instead of living in a romantic idealism about foreign policy.

    Yusufji, I agree with you when you say that India and China are both competing for increasingly scarce resources. But there are also fields where we could cooperate with each other, for instance: China is reaching saturating point in infrastucture development in its own country and is looking for a market while India is a tremendously underbuilt and undeveloped in terms of Infrastucture thereby being a potential market for China. Similarly, both China and India can be partners on various other issues and cooperate with each for mutual gains.
    I think the differences between China and India are in a way encouraged by the west, of course the mistrust and differences exist, but it seems like west tries to exploit these differences by playing the two countries against each other like speculating about impending clash of future superpowers India and China...etc. This kind of conflict between China and India(and other asian countries) of course suits the west so well. West has been using the old formula offsetting on asian country by using the other. All the asian countries are victims of this strategy by west: India, China, Russia, Japan, NoKo, South Korea, even Pakistan(of course, its rulers hardly care how their country is being used by whom as long as they are minting moolah). China has been challenging this world order in its own way. We could try and form an asian bloc comprising of India, China, Russia and Japan to off-set the west. Alternatively we could also use our relationship with China to offset US so that we could exert subtle pressure on them. In this regard, Pakistan has performed well. We frequently witness Pakistan supporting China and US and thus gaining from both to some extent. Pakistan is not the best example, of course, but I am mentioning merely to say that it is quite possible. Of course, a potential relationship with China comes with an added incentive that Pakistan would have one country less to prop it up.
     
  10. ahmedsid

    ahmedsid Top Gun Senior Member

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    The thing is that the Chinese detest our form of Governance, our way of operating I feel. They see us lazy people wasting resources, with their herd mentality. This is my personal observation, and this can differ from the Chinese perception. The Chinese are now competing with us, and they are kind of basking under all the importance they suddenly have, they are relishing their global financial heavyweight stats, and this is also an impediment.

    Even In forums, we see Chinese saying this and that about India, its democracy, its cities, its villages, its toilets! There is a kind of indoctrination goin on there, wherein they belive they are superior. Again a personal observation, and I maybe wrong.

    Chinese economy is export based, and they would want to dump their goods into India and that would be their first demand too if we become chums wid them. I mean, you can say that will make our Industries more better due to the competetion, and I would disagree, because you cant beat the Chinese because of the wages they pay their workers. I mean, they have plenty of skilled labour working cheap if i am not mistaken. In Kerala, we pay 400 Rupees to a person who will come and remove the weeds and arrange up the green surrounding. The wages are increasing day by day, and with this we wont be able to compete with them when we open up and meet their demand.

    Forgive me If my notions are wrong, its not meant to hurt anyone.
     
  11. ajtr

    ajtr Veteran Member Veteran Member

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    if 2 parties wish to fight based on distrust then there will always be 3rd party to take advantage of the fight.its same as two cats fighting and monkey taking the advantage.ideology difference has nothing to do with it its just mistrust
     
  12. Soham

    Soham DFI TEAM Senior Member

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    Maybe so. However I feel the reasons responsible for such hostilities are somehow unbalanced. We are losing so much, when there is so much to gain. Yes, the past is difficult to get around, but think about the upgrade in stability and security in the region under such alliances.

    Secondly, was 1962 a complete backstab as it is popularly made out to be ? Did "Forward Policy" not play any role ? There are many questions to be answered. As I said earlier, it would involve heavy compromise by both sides, often leading to actions against popular sentiments.
     
  13. Soham

    Soham DFI TEAM Senior Member

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    Your observations are mostly valid. Such superiority complex is not un-natural in a society which involved itself in a climb to Everest from dirty swamplands. Even I have noticed the various stereotypes across many forums. I guess it is a result of negative propaganda, which is quite reversible. The real herd mentality belongs to those who are most easily intoxicated by propaganda, and blindly follow power. Clearly, such mentality cannot belong to a democracy where we keep questioning our government 1000 times a day.
    Such propaganda is reparable and reversible.

    Look at it this way. We hate each other for the mistrust of our past. Who’s fault was it? I don’t know. But what I do know is, unlike our hostilities with Pakistan which are due to a hundred valid reasons and counting, our relations with China have always been externally controlled. Sometimes due to the allies we made, sometimes due to enemies. A mountain of misunderstandings and mistrust has created the ghost of our enmity which if you see, is quite baseless.
     
  14. ajtr

    ajtr Veteran Member Veteran Member

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    sure its solvable but then if one party insists that only other party should make concessions then its not.As in case of our neighbours.

    No. Pakistan -china Alliance was more to get india embroiled in south asia.so that no competition to china can evolve.THe Arunahal pradesh demand is just a symptom.real game is between china-india rivalry.

    Like same as we have been dodging last 50yrs.we didnt had WEST with us we only had ussr but only for 20 odd years.even west was against us and it was with china whole of this period.well we did ward off them then so sure we can do it now.



    Its nice fairy tale many indians propose.even indians propose such fairies with pakistan too.but on the hard reality they all break fairy loving indians heart with their hostility towards india.
     
  15. Soham

    Soham DFI TEAM Senior Member

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    Also, I don't believe that trade relations matter squat when military actions become inevitable. They often help to forge relations, but can never stop their breakage. Germany and England were great trade partners before the Wehrmacht rolled into Poland.
     
  16. Soham

    Soham DFI TEAM Senior Member

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    No mate.
    China embraced Pakistan to break the tightening Soviet/Non Soviet encirclement. Russia on the North, India on South, Japan and Korea on the East. They had to relieve the pressure in every direction. They neutralized/lessened the Indian threat by establishing relations with our arch-rivals.


    Who’s talking of warding off ? I’m talking about simultaneous relations with all three centres of influence.
     
  17. johnee

    johnee Elite Member Elite Member

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    India-China will not be best of chums and are bound to compete with each other on a variety of issues but at the same time India has grown tremendously from the last war the two countries fought. Can China really hope to conquer India militarily? For China, supporting Pakistan is the cheapest way to limit India to the sub-continent and do equal equal with Pakistan(a rogue nation at best and a group of terror supporting institutions at worst). But that strategy is getting obsolete as India keeps growing. From Chinese point of view wouldnt it be best to make peace with a nation like India which is growing enormously, presents a great market and is a neighbour(which gives India advantage to do on China what Pakistan does on India)?

    And India also has to be very careful if and when it tries to pursue Chinese friendship. It should not allow itself to be bullied on any issue that affects India's integrity and soveriegnity. Indian foreign policy must be firmly rooted in realpolitik instead of romanticism. India must understand that every nation will pursue its national interests and we must do the same. There are many areas where India will have cross swords with China but there are also many areas where India and China can help each other.

    @Soham: Just completely agree with every word of yours especially that thing about trade relations being of no importance in military matters.
     
  18. ajtr

    ajtr Veteran Member Veteran Member

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    Wait. till 1969 there was no treaty between india-USSR,IND-USA or india-japan against china.So in what way china saw it as its encirclement from south from india that it has then to cultivate pakistan as mutual military ally.China even came close to attacking india in 1971 but then backed off.i woud say till 1999 it was china-usa-pakistan triangle which was against india.and to some extent this triangle still exists.And first arrow of cultivating allies against india was shot by china not india.india in desperate situation in 1971 got allied with ussr.And when such a huge distrust exists between countries over a beriod of 50 yrs then its truly difficult to rollback.its either them or us.coz its the issue of survival.
     
  19. Soham

    Soham DFI TEAM Senior Member

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    When have I said anything about an India-Japan encirclement? Japan is still not an Indian ally. They're neutral.
    China was/is encircled by nations who hate her, but hate each other as well. Unless their survival is threatened, it would be a miracle to see Japan and Korea work together.

    Obviously its not easy to roll back. I'm not making webs of idealism here. I started the thread because I'm at a loss of concrete reasons for such enmity.

    Could you emphasize ?

    Uhm..no. I will not break my "fairy loving Indians heart"(where d'you get that from ?). Talks with Pakistan are an entirely different issue. It concerns a nation desperate to bleed us with anything and everything. Terrorism is the only way they can hurt a militarily and economically superior India. However, that's for another thread.
    Indo-China ties don't have mad mullahs declaring Jehad over some territory and the government actually supporting it.

    As I said earlier, our ties with China have been improvised by circumstances, rather than a pure diplomatic will.
     
    Last edited: Feb 26, 2010
  20. Soham

    Soham DFI TEAM Senior Member

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    Of course. If it involves compromising on integrity and freedom of decision, then the process is a failure to begin with !
     
  21. Soham

    Soham DFI TEAM Senior Member

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    We've all talked about how the actions in the past have converted to mistrust of the present.
    Real question, however is - Can we manage an alliance(non-military of course) with China looking at the way the Indian diplomatic factory is working at the moment ? With emerging Chinese power, US and Russia will find many avenues of co-operation; therefore close ties with US and Russia are very possible. On the other hand, China seems to be on a road of its own, challenging a superpower and a former superpower.

    So is a balance possible, or would we have to take a side ?
     

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