Opportunity for Obama
David Coleman's terrorism and Bhopal are befouling Indo-US relations, says N.V.Subramanian.
18 October 2010: Whatever the spin by governments in India and the US, president Barack Obama's November state visit to this country will be a washout closing resembling disaster unless America seriously revisits three issues. One is the matter of publically and unequivocally supporting India's bid for permanent membership in the UN Security Council (UNSC). The two other things focus on two individuals, David Coleman Headley and Warren Anderson, who must be turned over to India in the interests of justice. Without clear and apparent movement on these issues, obviously initiated by India but actively encouraged by the US, Obama's visit will create no ripples here and become a case of lost opportunities.
The stark fact is that few things excite India and presumably Indians as much as cricket, Bollywood gossip, festivities, having fun, and making money. Indians are not by and large political in nature (Hinduism is a greatly individualizing religion) and they are no less insular than Americans, although their knowledge of the world (among the literate sections) and a desire to travel overseas (if only to shop) is greater. A visiting American president ordinarily makes little impact on the lives of Indians and Obama would generate as much or as little momentary blip as his predecessors did who toured India.
Except, perhaps, in recent times, Bill Clinton. Clinton has left a more lasting impact on India than other US presidents before or after him. Clinton of course is a wildly charismatic man but he opened to India in a manner other presidents did not and it enabled him to seal a greater than mere political relationship with this country. That bond with Clinton extends to his wife, Hillary, the US secretary of state, and it is a certainty that if she ever runs for the American presidency again, she would be a favourite of India, unless there is a more provenly-friendly Republican Party candidate.
Barack Obama has the capacity to do a second Clinton, but it does not appear that he has looked at his forthcoming visit to India beyond the gridlines drawn by the Washington bureaucracy. Obama has to reach out to the Indian people if he wants to energize Indo-US ties over and above a sterile strategic relationship, and the three issues mentioned above are critical to this exercise.
Take the UNSC permanent membership ambitions of India. It provides the real test of how far the US is willing to go to assist India in the emerging world power structure. It is no gainsaid that ultimately India has to prove worthy of such UNSC status, and that it has to exercise the powers it has to assist with creating a global environment of democratic peace. But equally, the US cannot take a position of opposing India's ambitions, preferring Japan, while expecting warm and friendly ties with this country. If India has to strive alone to join the UNSC with veto powers (which, in the ultimate crunch, is how it will be), then it will have no incentive to explore deep and enduring ties with the United States. Their relationship would then be marked and marred by opportunism. If Obama wants to change this, then it is clear what he has to do. In India, he must ringingly endorse India's claim for veto powers, and promise all of his -- and the US's -- assistance.
Issue number two pertains to Warren Anderson. Following the renewed uproar over the Bhopal gas tragedy, the Manmohan Singh government reluctantly has pledged to move to get Anderson to stand trial in India. There have been attempts by Obama administration officials to pressure India to cease pursuing Anderson, and its consequences have been damaging for the US in a different sector. It is clear that the aftershock of Bhopal tied the hands of the Manmohan Singh government on the nuclear liability bill, with a united opposition making it impossible to give any concessions to foreign reactor makers, American and others. The lesson from this is that unless the Bhopal episode is closed to the entire satisfaction of India and Indians -- and at a minimum, Anderson has to stand trial here for this -- US businesses, especially those in sensitive sectors like nuclear energy, will be the subject of extraordinary suspicions, to the point of disabling them to strike roots in the vast and growing Indian market.
David Coleman Headley is the third and most important focal point. When he was first exposed as a Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) terrorist scout for 26/11 and a US undercover agent, this writer was among the first to analyze that America was protecting him. This writer also made the point that the US decided to arrest Headley only when his plans to target the Danish paper carrying the Prophet's cartoons had reached an advanced stage. In other words, the US stood by and watched 26/11 happen but only moved to stop Headley when core Western interests were threatened. Recently, the US and NATO carried out a month-long bombing campaign against Al-Qaeda and Taliban targets in North Waziristan when a plot to attack several European cities came to light. On the other hand, there was no decisive action to prevent 26/11, except a routine tip-off to Indian authorities with vague timelines.
Every day brings more revelations about Headley, 26/11 and the shameful complicity of US covert services which, at the very least, will scupper Obama's visit. The latest is that one of Headley's three wives informed US officials about his LeT terrorist connections and suspicions about a 26/11 plan complete with tape-recordings and other evidence nearly a year before the Bombay carnage but that they ignored her and continued to protect him as an operative. In the face of such media disclosures, the US says it gave India access to Headley. Earlier, India was demanding Headley's extradition, but dropped it probably under US pressure. But new revelations about Headley are again making Indian public opinion deeply suspicious of US intentions vis-a-vis India, robbing its counterterrorist thrust of credibility, and letting an impression grow that Pakistan has a free pass to terrorize India.
The only way to salvage the situation is for the US to turn over Headley to India, overriding the judicial guarantees given to him that prevent this. In a situation where India held a terrorist who had harmed the US, America would not permit Indian legal procedures to stand in the way of getting him. The Manmohan Singh government immediately must have to make a strong pitch to gain custody of Headley. It will forthwith convey the seriousness of the issue and send a message to the US not to toy with intimate Indian concerns and anxieties. It will also give notice to Pakistan that India will hunt down Pakistani terrorists to the ends of the world.
If Barack Obama cannot promise delivery on any of the three discussed subjects, then he should be prepared for a non-visit in November.
N.V.Subramanian is Editor, www.NewsInsight.net, and writes internationally on strategic affairs. He has authored two novels, University of Love (Writers Workshop, Calcutta) and Courtesan of Storms (Har-Anand, Delhi). Email: [email protected].