Numbers of future combat aircraft---less space for Tejas

[ace009]

MMRCA will start inductions in 2015 if we are lucky and take at least 6-7 years, around the same time frame for LCA if we order today... what are you going to do in the mean time?

thats the reason for the upgrades of mig 29, mirages. mig 29's are superb aircraft and very good air superiority fighters with countries still ordering them and Kargil proved the importance of mirages until the MMRCA comes in we need them as they are the only multipurpose aircraft with IAF today.

mig 27 will start phasing out around 2020.Jaguars wont be there for much longer either. Although the IAF may still operate 2 squadrons form the 1999 and 2001 order for maritime strike or deep penetration strike. basically these are the aircraft waiting for MMRCA.

LCA is another story we needed to place orders for 200 last year as mig 21 are to be phased out by 2017

The MiG-29s in IAF has one of the worst records. MiG hashed up in quality, not to mention they were waay behind in putting in A2G capabilities, conformal fuel tanks and FOD protection. As a result, most of the IAF MiG-29s were still suited for one thing only - short distance interception/ air denial. But IAF already has the MiG-21s for that role. The poor performance of the MiG-29s were one reason why the MiG-35s (upgraded MiG-29s) were summarily rejected from MMRCA. It is only NOW that the MiG-29 SMT level upgrades will allow the MiGs to be somewhat useful, but the upgrades are not that cheap. The Mirages on the other hand have served IAF really well, and with the present upgrades can serve IAF till 2025 (and knowing IAF, probably well beyond). Still, it is one f**king expensive upgrade for the Mirages.
I still think that IAF, HAL and MoD should have focused more on the LCA, maybe partnered with a foreign company like SAAB or Dassault to fast pace LCA Mk-2 development and inducted ~200 LCA Mk-2 by 2020 instead of spending ~$4 billion on "upgrades" of the Jaguars, MiG-29s and Mirages.

 

[AbhishekDas]

by 2020 iaf may have upto 894 combat aircrafts which will comprise of 272 Super-Sukhoi 30 MkIII, 40 Sukhoi-FGFA, 54 HAL Tejas mk-1 LCA, 58 Dassault Rafaels F3, 63 Mig-29UPG, 141 Jaguar-SL-UPG, 90 Mig-27 FL, 125 Mig-21 Bisons..........by 2030 iaf may have 1,103 combat aircrafts which will comprise of 144 Sukhoi-FGFA, 150 Hal Tejas mk-3 amca, 366 Super-Sukhoi 30 MkIII,189 Dassault Rafael F3, 54 Hal Tejas mk-1 LCA, 200 Hal Tejas mk-2 LCA.......!!!

 

[AbhishekDas]

IAF will have 894 combat aircrafts, 263 major Transport Military Aircrafts, 456 UAV & UCAV's, 450 Airforce Helicopters by 2020....... by 2030 iaf will have more than 1,100-1,200 combat aircrafts, 320 Major Transport Military Aircrafts, 756 UAV & UCAV's, 650 Airforce Helicopters of different types.......these aircrafts & its huge numbers will enough to counter China's Growing Plaaf & Pakistan's Paf.......!!!

 

[AbhishekDas]

Plaaf can't defeat Iaf both at present & in future, in any himalayan fight between the two countries despite Plaaf having good capable aircrafts in future like J-31 & J-20 stealths, Sukhoi-30 mkk1, Sukhoi-35 S, J-10 B, J-11, Fc-1/ Jf-17 etc because indian airforce pilots & soldiers are well trained to defend the borders from aerial attacks & to shoot down even stealth fighters, in future Iaf will deploy more sophisticated stealth aircrafts catching radar jointly under development by Izrael & India, thisradars will be equipped with both Barak sams & Aakash mk-3 version Sam's........so don't underestimate the power of India, if China is in the dream of defeating India like 1962,it will become disatrous for them........!!!

 

[Pulkit]

A quick reply based on my knowledge only..

44 Squad is what we need to have operational by 2030 that is 44X21 = 924
There will a large number of aircrafts retiring in the mean while ... all the upgraded aircrafts will be starting to retire by 2025-2030 so there will be a huge window to fit Tejas.... Even today when we are suposed to retire migs only the order of Rafale cannot be sufficient...
Tejs MK1 fits the role of interceptor which is actually needed as migs areretiring..
Then we have FGFA say 144-200 AMCA Tejas MK2(surely huge numbers will be ordered as it will be close to MMRCA)...
Then we will have sukhoi as well...
So i dont think Tejas will be left out as with FGFA AMCA Tejas MK2 currently in line India wont be needing a new aircraft till 2045-2050 ans tejas will hve a definate role in IAF...

And with more Aircraft carriers in line by 2030 we will see alot moe orders for Tejas MK2....

Assuming that numbers of combat aircraft in IAF are going to be around 750 in number in the future ( up from about 650 today ) , where is space for LCA Tejas ?

Let us check the numbers of combat aircraft in 2030 based on future plans .

By 2030 the Sukhoi 30 MKI will be already in full numbers ( 272 ) in IAF . But having being started to be inducted in the late nineties , even the earliest Sukhois will not be yet ripe for retirement . Here I am assuming that their service life is about 40 years .

Plus there will be MRCAs . The contract of 126 aircraft may have been increased by to about 200 .

And by this time hopefully the FGFA will have been inducted in full numbers---about 250 .

If we add the numbers 272 ( Sukhois ) + 200 ( MRCAs ) + 250 ( FGFAs ) = 722 .

Even if we assume that some aircraft will be lost to accidents , there will be about 700 combat aircraft .

So there is space for only 50 more Tejas aircraft . So where will the planned 200 Tejas fit in ??

Unless of course we do not buy more than the initial 126 MRCAs .

The Sukhois are already contracted for numbering 272 , that number is fixed . FGFA is not contracted yet , but there is no sense in funding the development of a new aircraft unless we buy it in large numbers . Its number is going to be 250 to 300 , but here I am quoting minimum number ( 250 ) .

So , unless we buy only 126 MRCAs , there is hardly any space for Tejas .

Or else , we are thinking of expanding our combat aircraft fleet .

Here of course , I am assuming the Tejas development gets completed as planned . But there seems to be no space for it .

Can somebody explain the arithmetic to fit Tejas in the air force ??

 

[Pulkit]

Having faith and confidence in once defense is good but what you just expressed is over confidence...
The way China is growing from defense point of view we can't simply beat them,,,
If you would have said Pakis then there was is and will be never ever any doubt...
but with china we cannot take them for granted ... MOst of there A/C might not be superioir to our might be copied but with that huge fleet they are very mucha threat to us....

Plaaf can't defeat Iaf both at present & in future, in any himalayan fight between the two countries despite Plaaf having good capable aircrafts in future like J-31 & J-20 stealths, Sukhoi-30 mkk1, Sukhoi-35 S, J-10 B, J-11, Fc-1/ Jf-17 etc because indian airforce pilots & soldiers are well trained to defend the borders from aerial attacks & to shoot down even stealth fighters, in future Iaf will deploy more sophisticated stealth aircrafts catching radar jointly under development by Izrael & India, thisradars will be equipped with both Barak sams & Aakash mk-3 version Sam's........so don't underestimate the power of India, if China is in the dream of defeating India like 1962,it will become disatrous for them........!!!