Numbers of future combat aircraft---less space for Tejas

[ashdoc]

Assuming that numbers of combat aircraft in IAF are going to be around 750 in number in the future ( up from about 650 today ) , where is space for LCA Tejas ?

Let us check the numbers of combat aircraft in 2030 based on future plans .

By 2030 the Sukhoi 30 MKI will be already in full numbers ( 272 ) in IAF . But having being started to be inducted in the late nineties , even the earliest Sukhois will not be yet ripe for retirement . Here I am assuming that their service life is about 40 years .

Plus there will be MRCAs . The contract of 126 aircraft may have been increased by to about 200 .

And by this time hopefully the FGFA will have been inducted in full numbers---about 250 .

If we add the numbers 272 ( Sukhois ) + 200 ( MRCAs ) + 250 ( FGFAs ) = 722 .

Even if we assume that some aircraft will be lost to accidents , there will be about 700 combat aircraft .

So there is space for only 50 more Tejas aircraft . So where will the planned 200 Tejas fit in ??

Unless of course we do not buy more than the initial 126 MRCAs .

The Sukhois are already contracted for numbering 272 , that number is fixed . FGFA is not contracted yet , but there is no sense in funding the development of a new aircraft unless we buy it in large numbers . Its number is going to be 250 to 300 , but here I am quoting minimum number ( 250 ) .

So , unless we buy only 126 MRCAs , there is hardly any space for Tejas .

Or else , we are thinking of expanding our combat aircraft fleet .

Here of course , I am assuming the Tejas development gets completed as planned . But there seems to be no space for it .

Can somebody explain the arithmetic to fit Tejas in the air force ??

 

[rock127]

Why we would be having only 700+ combat planes only? Our economy is supposed to increase and we have at least 2 major threats in our region.One of the threat is much bigger and have to be tackled by both quality and quantity. Air Force in future would be a deciding factor and has to be the spearhead of any nations armed forces.

 

[agentperry]

look tejas gave a lot to India even without coming into service. regarding numbers- we dont know what will future battlefeild look like. exactly 100 years ago tanks were imagination now they are considered to be stone age thing which needs replacement.

tejas entry into IAF. you want it to put it against which fighter aircraft? is it required to put tejas against that plane provided we are buying so many planes from diff countries. India is now not in league of nation which buy a fighter plane for a static security situation like we did in 60s 70s 80s. now we cant end at su-30 or mrca or fgfa..

the situation is just like cold war. one side show case(off) a platform and other party gets on table to beat it. it will go on and on

 

[Apollyon]

Ashdoc ..please kindly include the numbers of UCAV's ....
UCAV will be the future of aerial-combact and no one can decline this fact

 

[ashdoc]

Why we would be having only 700+ combat planes only? Our economy is supposed to increase and we have at least 2 major threats in our region.One of the threat is much bigger and have to be tackled by both quality and quantity. Air Force in future would be a deciding factor and has to be the spearhead of any nations armed forces.

Right now the number of combat aircraft is little more than 650 . I am already saying that by 2030 it will be 750---that is , about 100 more . Beyond that , at least I dont know about any plans to enlarge the size of the combat fleet .

 

[Anonymouse]

India's next-gen stealth fighter may not be what we thought - The DEW Line

NAK Browne, air chief marshal of the Indian air force, said yesterday in New Delhi that he actually plans to buy 166 single-seat and 48 twin-seat versions of the FGFA, which will be derived from the Sukhoi PAK-FA.

I think, MRCA options beyond 126 will be exercised only if there is a problem with FGFA.

For both IAF and Naval Tejas MKII, only 99 engines has been ordered so far. For IAF, I think MK-I will be 40 (ordered) and MK-II will be 83. Naval MK-II will be 40-60, 6 ordered so far.

Livefist: IAF Grudgingly Accepts Tejas IOC, Wants 83 Mk-IIs

 

[Galaxy]

By 2030,

MKI - 272-350
MMRCA - 126-200
Tejas MK1,2,3(amca) - 200
PAKFA - 200

16-20 fighter jets = 1 squadron. So, 50 squadron x 18 = 900 needed which will be achieved by then.

100-120 odd MIRAGE M2k & MIG29 would be decommissioned after 2030.


18 years is a very long period and too early to predict.

 

[noob101]

You make a good point I was thinking of this exact thing a while back.... The IAF is sanctioned in terms of squadrons not no. of aircraft. Each squadron typically has 16 single seat +2 twin seat trainer AC. and I think that aircraft are ordered with crashes and fleet reserves in mind.... rough calculations

SU 30MKI- last batch of 42 will probably be for special ops and N strike role divided into 2 squadrons
remaning 230 - 12 squadrons with 14 AC fleet reserve

MMRCA- 10 squadrons - with 20 fleet reserve

PAK FA/ FGFA 10 squadrons (160 single seat -20 twin seat)
1 squadron of twin seat with 24 AC for special ops and N strike
6 single seat 4 twin seat fleet reserve

Total comes to ~ 34 squadrons by 2030 however by this time some of the older MKIs will be ending their serviceable life, by then we might just have 10 squadrons so that leaves enough room for 10 squadrons of LCA around 200 AC. Also the sanctioned strength may raised to 45 leaving place for the 2 Mirage and 3 Mig 29 squadrons.

feedback form experts is welcome

 

[p2prada]

There is place for LCA in the IAF in the short term. Current orders for LCA in IAF are 20 Mk1s and 20 Mk2s. Another 83 Mk2s are pending.

However apart from MRCA, MKI and PAKFA, we have need for AMCA. If done in time the initial orders alone will be around 200-300 with possible end number between 500 and 1000 AMCAs. IAF may look for 60 squadrons in the future. No point speculating though but the AMCA could very well be our F-16s.

 

[Godless-Kafir]

You left out Mirage-2000, Mig-29 which would account for atleast 150 aircrafts and who said Pak-Fa will be inducted by then? That is very naive by then the Pak-Fa would have probably FOP and only by 2025 Pak-Fa will be completely inducted.

272-Su-30s,
50-Mirage2000
65-Mig-29
126-MMRCA
100-LCA if we are lucky.
------
613 odd aircrafts.

 

[noob101]

There is place for LCA in the IAF in the short term. Current orders for LCA in IAF are 20 Mk1s and 20 Mk2s. Another 83 Mk2s are pending.

However apart from MRCA, MKI and PAKFA, we have need for AMCA. If done in time the initial orders alone will be around 200-300 with possible end number between 500 and 1000 AMCAs. IAF may look for 60 squadrons in the future. No point speculating though but the AMCA could very well be our F-16s.

Yeah the AMCA if successful will be a game changer for sure... it would be a much better strike platform than the MMRCA or LCA. But i am afraid that by the time it comes UCAV's will dominate the market so we probably wont see 500 -1000. 200-250 for the IAF and 100 for the IN.... and i agree with you that IAF should look for 60 squadrons by 2030.

 

[nrj]

ACM himself said & it was discussed long back that, by 2016-17 MRCA tech will be outdated but LCA-MK-II will still be up-to current standards & with possible scope in further upgradation.

For MK-I, yes the numbers may not move from current orders but that is not the case for MK-II, there is certainly huge space for it to fill in.

 

[ashdoc]

You left out Mirage-2000, Mig-29 which would account for atleast 150 aircrafts and who said Pak-Fa will be inducted by then? That is very naive by then the Pak-Fa would have probably FOP and only by 2025 Pak-Fa will be completely inducted.

272-Su-30s,
50-Mirage2000
65-Mig-29
126-MMRCA
100-LCA if we are lucky.
------
613 odd aircrafts.

the date i am discussing is 2030 , not 2020 . read properly .

 

[ashdoc]

ACM himself said & it was discussed long back that, by 2016-17 MRCA tech will be outdated but LCA-MK-II will still be up-to current standards & with possible scope in further upgradation.

are you seriously suggesting that MRCA , whether it is typhoon or rafale , is outdated compared to LCA MK 2 ??!!!

 

[nitesh]

Ashdoc, you are assuming that the number of IAF squadrons will remain same. As our forces footprint increase, we need more number of air crafts in our inventory.

 

[noob101]

the role of Tejas will be a replacement for the mig 21's, the primary role being 2nd line aircraft for interception and secondary air strike roles. The Tejas is perfectly suited for this type of mission. Im sure the airforce will order the MK II in larger nos., because it requires a cheap 2nd line fighter any foreign options would cost a lot more... plus the Tejas is a capable aircraft. This is why I think it will be around for a long time.

 

[debasree]

what about the 5th jeneration aircrafts which india invested significant amout of money to jointly produce it with russia ,i mean pak-fa no body counts on it ,i think if we r lucky we can get 2-3 squdrons of these plane

 

[nrj]

are you seriously suggesting that MRCA , whether it is typhoon or rafale , is outdated compared to LCA MK 2 ??!!!

Yes it sounds outrageous. But it is what suggested by IAF, not me. MRCA thread archives has it all.

 

[Killswitch]

I have found the IAFfleet to be absurd for quite some time now.


If I had any say....


SU 30-----360 (20 squads)
MMRCA-----180(10 squads)
LCA--------180(10 squads)



I think the money spent on Mig 29, Mirage, Jaguar, and Mig 27 upgs should have been used to but more sukhois and MMRCA. These planes are old and complicate logistics. Sticking to 3 types is simple. It lets HAL focus on a few important lines. It also gives mechanics a break.

 

[noob101]

I have found the IAFfleet to be absurd for quite some time now.


If I had any say....


SU 30-----360 (20 squads)
MMRCA-----180(10 squads)
LCA--------180(10 squads)



I think the money spent on Mig 29, Mirage, Jaguar, and Mig 27 upgs should have been used to but more sukhois and MMRCA. These planes are old and complicate logistics. Sticking to 3 types is simple. It lets HAL focus on a few important lines. It also gives mechanics a break.

MMRCA will start inductions in 2015 if we are lucky and take at least 6-7 years, around the same time frame for LCA if we order today... what are you going to do in the mean time?

thats the reason for the upgrades of mig 29, mirages. mig 29's are superb aircraft and very good air superiority fighters with countries still ordering them and Kargil proved the importance of mirages until the MMRCA comes in we need them as they are the only multipurpose aircraft with IAF today.

mig 27 will start phasing out around 2020.Jaguars wont be there for much longer either. Although the IAF may still operate 2 squadrons form the 1999 and 2001 order for maritime strike or deep penetration strike. basically these are the aircraft waiting for MMRCA.

LCA is another story we needed to place orders for 200 last year as mig 21 are to be phased out by 2017