Nirbhay Cruise Missile Development

[Zero-Sum-Game]

There are some concerning news coming through media at the moment... Don't know the authenticity but they are being forwarded by express news service.

 

[Cutting Edge 2]

@kurup had posted the NOTAM for 25/26th of May earlier. Did it change?

According to insider rumours date seems to be 31st May. That warning might be for some other test.

 

[kunal1123]

After three failures, Nirbhay to be tested on 31st May
3-4 minutes
SOURCE: ENS

With three failures and without clearance from the technical committee formed to recommend rectification measures, Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) is all set to conduct a fresh experimental trial of homegrown subsonic cruise missile Nirbhay on May 31.

However, the move to put the missile into trial with faults in the system has left a section of scientists worried. While navigational and hardware problems still persist in the weapon system, glitches in Nirbhay flight control computer are yet to be rectified.

So far, of the four tests of Nirbhay missile, three have met with failure. Though the missile covered a distance of nearly 1,000 km during its second trial on October 17, 2014 and was claimed as successful by the DRDO, it could not maintain low height as intended.

Sources said an independent technical committee was formed after the failed fourth trial in December last year to identify faults in the missile sub-systems and suggest remedial measures.”Even as the committee refused to give a go-ahead for the test, the top brass of DRDO is adamant on going for fresh trial. They are expecting a miracle to happen but with defects in the system, failure is a foregone conclusion,” said a defence scientist on condition of anonymity.

During Aero India 2017 in February, Director General of DRDO S Christopher had said the suggestions of the technical committee have been incorporated and the missile is ready for trial.Sources said Nirbhay cruise missile, which was powered by a turbofan engine earlier, will be tested using a turbojet engine this time.The first test flight conducted on March 12, 2013, was a failure as the missile fell down only after 20 minutes of flight.On October 16, 2015, the missile during its third test nose-dived into the sea after covering only 129 km in 11 minutes.

Nirbhay’s fourth trial on December 21, 2016 was aborted midway as the missile changed its course due to late deployment of wings.Before third and fourth trials, ‘The Express’ had raised doubts on the outcome of the tests as the missile had faults in the flight control and navigation software.Having a strike range of nearly 1,000 km, the two-stage missile is six metres long. With a diameter of 0.52 metres and wing span of 2.7 metres, Nirbhay weighs around 1,500 kg and can carry warhead of 200 kg.

Designed by Aeronautical Development Establishment (ADE) and launched in 2004, the projected date of completion of Nirbhay was December 31 last. It was, however, extended till June, 2018 after a review.
Christopher chose to ignore the queried about the faults in the missile system.

 

[kurup]

@kurup had posted the NOTAM for 25/26th of May earlier. Did it change?

The warning that I posted of Nirbhay no longer exists ...... So test is postponed .

As for May 31 ..... no warning exists for that day .

 

[Khagesh]

Nirbhay’s fourth trial on December 21, 2016 was aborted midway as the missile changed its course due to late deployment of wings.Before third and fourth trials, ‘The Express’ had raised doubts on the outcome of the tests as the missile had faults in the flight control and navigation software.Having a strike range of nearly 1,000 km, the two-stage missile is six metres long. With a diameter of 0.52 metres and wing span of 2.7 metres, Nirbhay weighs around 1,500 kg and can carry warhead of 200 kg.

Tests and test failures are part of life. Lage raho.

But what interests me is the dia of 0.52.

Play around with this site.
http://www.engineeringtoolbox.com/smaller-circles-in-larger-circle-d_1849.html

Presume K-4 dia at 1.3 mtr, K-15 dia at .74 for missiles, adding about 25% more in the dia for the full up wooden round. I presume an ATV Arihant silo of may be 2 mtr. which gives 3 K-15 in that silo and also 1 K-4. But that also gives me 7 Nirbhays in that one ATV Arihant Silo (I will be happy to have 6). Kaisa laga.

Now tell me if we should keep testing even if we fail............. or not?

 

[sayareakd]

extension was given, which has faded my hopes, another failure coming.

 

[Prayash]

Mee including my family were scheduled to stay at drdo guest house in chandipur house for 27th may but today we got news from drdo guy that a missile test will happen in few days and drdo people will stay there, no tourist can be allowed. He said we could go there next week.

 

[xeaaex]

Mee including my family were scheduled to stay at drdo guest house in chandipur house for 27th may but today we got news from drdo guy that a missile test will happen in few days and drdo people will stay there, no tourist can be allowed. He said we could go there next week.

Sad for you good for us all, i hope we are successful thia time.
And i am sure they are going to be successful this time.
Afterall they are scientists and engineers and they no everything about the project and hence they are going for the test so early and we are just random people commenting on a forum.
Urgency in test shows that
1) they are confident.
2) they are sure they have rectified the problem that missile encountered during the last trials.
3) government want results and hence this guys are pretty serious.
............................................................
I work on neural networks, Those who are disappointed by failures,let me tell you one thing.
The more you fail the more you get to know about the sample set that will fail for sure, and that means the more we come to know what is going to be successful in the given sample set.
Don't get discouraged Don't get disappointed we will succeed.

P.s. just like ISRO succeed in taming their naughty boy(GSLV).

 

[Prayash]

Sad for you good for us all, i hope we are successful thia time.
And i am sure they are going to be successful this time.
Afterall they are scientists and engineers and they no everything about the project and hence they are going for the test so early and we are just random people commenting on a forum.
Urgency in test shows that
1) they are confident.
2) they are sure they have rectified the problem that missile encountered during the last trials.
3) government want results and hence this guys are pretty serious.
............................................................
I work on neural networks, Those who are disappointed by failures,let me tell you one thing.
The more you fail the more you get to know about the sample set that will fail for sure, and that means the more we come to know what is going to be successful in the given sample set.
Don't get discouraged Don't get disappointed we will succeed.

P.s. just like ISRO succeed in taming their naughty boy(GSLV).

Im not sad i will go there next sat/sunday.

Let us just pray for nirbhay's success.This repeated failure of nirbhay is a problem which will be eventually solved. Let me tell you DRDO facing heavy sanction from MTCR(created exclusively for anti Indian interests)had successfully tested agni1 on 22 may, 1989 before testing it inside supersonic air tunnel. They innovatively used the newer CFD computer those days. Im sure Nirbhay will also be a success story.

 

[Chinmoy]

extension was given, which has faded my hopes, another failure coming.

Extension is for project completion. Success or failure this time would not mean end of project.

 

[indiatester]

Im not sad i will go there next sat/sunday.

Let us just pray for nirbhay's success.This repeated failure of nirbhay is a problem which will be eventually solved. Let me tell you DRDO facing heavy sanction from MTCR(created exclusively for anti Indian interests)had successfully tested agni1 on 22 may, 1989 before testing it inside supersonic air tunnel. They innovatively used the newer CFD computer those days. Im sure Nirbhay will also be a success story.

What is a CFD computer?

Regarding Nirbhay, the hardware itself should be in the known expertise of the engineers, as it is just a one time use aircraft. The software is surely an issue, but given the existing simulation possibilities, even that should be done IMO. I hope they are successful.

 

[Adioz]

Extension is for project completion. Success or failure this time would not mean end of project.

What does failure augur for IA on the cruise missile front?
Will we get a foreign product? (I seriously fkin hope not)
Will we leave it be and concentrate on getting Brahmos to reach 800km mark and beyond?
Will we start a completely new project for a longer range LACM?
Will we collaborate with some other country to make the weapon?

Failure in this project should not sound a death knell for sub-sonic cruise missile development in India. IMHO, the GoI will not cut the umbilical cord so easily.

 

[sayareakd]

Looks like some plans in that direction. Another Arjun in making, this time other party learned and try to do this at development stage. Lets pray for best and support local effort.

 

[Chinmoy]

What does failure augur for IA on the cruise missile front?
Will we get a foreign product? (I seriously fkin hope not)
Will we leave it be and concentrate on getting Brahmos to reach 800km mark and beyond?
Will we start a completely new project for a longer range LACM?
Will we collaborate with some other country to make the weapon?

Failure in this project should not sound a death knell for sub-sonic cruise missile development in India. IMHO, the GoI will not cut the umbilical cord so easily.

If GoI had to cut the umblical cord, they would not have given extension twice after the last failure. GoI is not going to do that in next 2 years at least.
As far as 800 km Brahmos is concerned, both the system can't replace each other. Both are designed with two different purpose. IA could always cry for filling up the gap, but the thing is, who is going to provide you a CM?

JV is another thing, but looking at the current development cycle of Nirbhay, the only field where some sort of foreign interference is possible is in engine. Moreover this time they are looking to test Turbojet instead of turbofan. So seems they are more interested in component test rather then the complete product test. Not a too bad idea I think.

 

[sthf]

I think this needs to be reposted.


A grand total of Rs 90 crores are being spent on the Nirbhay project and full rate production will result in $0.5 million per unit.

Either throw money at a problem like China does or look for creative solutions.

 

[Pulkit]

JV is another thing, but looking at the current development cycle of Nirbhay, the only field where some sort of foreign interference is possible is in engine. Moreover this time they are looking to test Turbojet instead of turbofan. So seems they are more interested in component test rather then the complete product test. Not a too bad idea I think.

Testing a component rather than the complete product in this case is a bad idea. Why?
1)Delays development.
2)Increases Cost.
3)Individual testing can be done without the complete product.
4)They are aware of the issues which are not resolved (as per one of the articles) but they are still going for the test which in a way is suicide.

This can even kill the project as there has not been a single ray of hope in this.they have already taken alot a time a little more would not have any more bad name. They should have made sure all issues are resolved before going for another test.

If the articles stating that still some issues needs to be addressed is false then I think it is good to test it.

 

[HariPrasad-1]

Looks like some plans in that direction. Another Arjun in making, this time other party learned and try to do this at development stage. Lets pray for best and support local effort.

I think the last failure was not due to any design issue but malfunctioning of some system. It already has one highly successful test.I am very optimistic about Nirbhay and I see it a success in coming test.

 

[Chinmoy]

Testing a component rather than the complete product in this case is a bad idea. Why?
1)Delays development.
2)Increases Cost.
3)Individual testing can be done without the complete product.
4)They are aware of the issues which are not resolved (as per one of the articles) but they are still going for the test which in a way is suicide.

This can even kill the project as there has not been a single ray of hope in this.they have already taken alot a time a little more would not have any more bad name. They should have made sure all issues are resolved before going for another test.

If the articles stating that still some issues needs to be addressed is false then I think it is good to test it.

Ground testing of any component and flight testing of the same are two different things. Any component which pass out with flying colors in ground or arrested testing doesn't mean that it would act same or give same result in flight. As per Sourav Jha, 90 crore is till date expenditure in the project. Now it may sound too much, but for any such project I think this sum is quiet reasonable.

GoI doesn't give extension on face value. Any project director or manager would have to fight hard to keep any project alive. Now after fighting for it and getting the much sought extension, project manager would be the last on earth to commit suicide. But this hasty step could be possibly for two reasons:
Reason 1: Team wants to tests components and want to do it fast, so that in case of failure they do get ample time before the extension period end to carry out further tests.
Reason 2: Team simply wants to junk the project with faulty component.

Now for me reason 1 seems more logical. Instead of waiting for all tests to happen under controlled environment and then taking up the test at last time they are playing a gamble. If it passes, they have valid reason to ask for timeline and if it fails, they would get enough time to go through results and rectify. On the bright side, I am seeing a win win situation for DRDO and ARDE as of now.

 

[captscooby81]

The last failure was because of the malfunction in the deployment of the wing of the missile....

I think the last failure was not due to any design issue but malfunctioning of some system. It already has one highly successful test.I am very optimistic about Nirbhay and I see it a success in coming test.

 

[square]

I think this needs to be reposted.


A grand total of Rs 90 crores are being spent on the Nirbhay project and full rate production will result in $0.5 million per unit.

Either throw money at a problem like China does or look for creative solutions.

90cr is too small a amount on developing a cruise missile of given specification...