Next Round of Indian Nuclear Tests

Discussion in 'Defence & Strategic Issues' started by Yusuf, Apr 24, 2012.

  1. Yusuf

    Yusuf GUARDIAN Administrator

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    The ease at which the international community took into its stride the ICBM test of India certainly indicates a growing acceptance and importance of a nuclear India in the context of changing world power structure. When India tested the Agni missile technical demonstrator in 1989, a lot of pressure was put on India to roll back both its nuclear as well as ballistic missile program. India all but abandoned the Agni program due to this pressure only to revive it in full force post Kargil.

    Since then, India has conducted many tests. Though we faced condemnation for our nuclear tests from some quarters and sanctioned, those sanctions were removed in double quick time. Since then, indian economy has boomed and the US and India have been on a honeymoon notwithstanding Obama.

    The US has been on a downward spiral for the last few years. China has been marching ahead and in fact caught the US strategic and military planners off guard with its military technological advances in the last few years. The J-20, DF21A "carrier killer" and also its moves to acquire aircraft carriers in a hurry has put Washington in a tizzy. So much so that Obama became more than willing to abdicate US pre-eminence to the Chinese and started the notion of G2 until he realized that the Chinese aimed to make the world a G1 place with the Chinese at the top of the heap.

    So when India recently tested its Agni V ICBM, the US more or less welcomed it though not in direct words. There was no negative reactions.

    "US is comfortable with Indian progress in the nuclear and missile fields", Lisa Curtis, senior research fellow for South Asia, and Baker Spring, research fellow in National Security Policy, at The Heritage Foundation, a conservative thinktank said in a commentary.

    "India's successful test of the Agni-V, a nuclear-capable long-range missile, is a major step forward for New Delhi in attaining nuclear deterrence against regional rival China," they said calling it as "telling that no country has criticised India's missile test."
    Curtis and Spring also noted that the US State Department simply called on all nuclear-capable states to exercise restraint and underlined India's solid record on non-proliferation and its cooperation with the international community on nuclear issues.
    "This is a far cry from Washington's position on Indian ballistic missile development throughout the 1990s, when Washington pressured New Delhi to modify its nuclear and missile posture," they said suggesting "the new US stance also demonstrates a welcome evolution in US non-proliferation policy."
    "The US change in position with regard to Indian missile capabilities demonstrates how far the US-India relationship has evolved over the last decade," Curtis and Spring said.
    "Now the US views India as a strategic partner with growing economic and political clout that will contribute to promoting security and stability in Asia."

    The above comments are telling. The US is probably comfortable with India pursuing an independent defence and foreign policy and allow it to grow its nuclear and missile stockpile to defend itself from the ever growing and aggressive Chinese military which is flexing its muscles in the South China Sea as well as trying to assert itself in the border dispute against India. The Chinese use of Pakistan as a proxy and proliferation of nuclear and missile technology is also not lost on the US.

    In the next couple of years, India will further test the Agni V missile and also develop even longer range land based ICBMs and also SLBMs. This will only add to the pressure within the DRDO to make sure that the nuclear arsenal is reliable and also validate new designs and different types of warheads and yields to suit its growing arsenal of missiles. This means that another round of nuclear tests would be required.

    At the current time, it may not be tenable for India to conduct nuclear tests, but as India’s economy grows and the US and the west at large gets more involved in India and also face growing Chinese threats, India could well test the western governments by first testing a 10,000 km range ICBM for its reaction and also privately make it known to the west that India requires another round of nuclear tests to check for reliability as well as validation of technology that has been developed since the last round of tests in 1998. India could then announce a round of 12 tests or so over a period of 6 months or so which should include some higher yield warheads and also test the capacity to make megaton warheads just to check capability though it is not desirable to maintain a megaton arsenal.Along with that, we should announce that we will sign the CTBT. If there is no outrage with this announcement and it does not lead to any effect on the civil nuclear deal and other defence deals that india has signed over the last few years, India could go ahead with the tests. If the reaction is not conducive, we could wait for some more time. India should not try to conduct any tests on the sly without taking into confidence the US and other western nations with whom India is developing a very strong partnership.

    I am more than certain that in a five year timeline, the situation will be ripe for India to conduct nuclear tests.
     
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  3. Oracle

    Oracle New Member

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    You wrote this? Excellent read and some good observations.
     
  4. Yusuf

    Yusuf GUARDIAN Administrator

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    Yes Sir, I wrote this. Thinking a lot these days.
     
  5. thakur_ritesh

    thakur_ritesh Administrator Administrator

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    Yusuf,

    I see 3 important things that need to happen before we go for the next round of tests which should be an extended round of tests, which as you say, could spread over 6 months or if need be, more:

    The primary focus has to be to get the economy around the 5-6t usd mark first and foremost.
    We need a further depleted USA from what it is today, and a much more aggressive China where the need on part of west for India is that much more.
    Then, as you suggest, do a ICBM test in the range of 10,000(+)kms, and announce the actual range. This should be done irrespective of the expected reactions.

    I'll like to believe we are still at least a decade away from all of the above except for the ICBM which should most definitely happen within the timeline of the next central government. For the nuke tests we might have to wait for the government that gets formed after the next one.

    If China does something stupid in SCS, that will without a doubt make our job all the more easy. China rather than the rhetoric should take the bait, that'll be the biggest service that China can ever do for us.

    PS: Start a blog with this article.
     
  6. Yusuf

    Yusuf GUARDIAN Administrator

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    I got that as an afterthought but had already hit post about China getting silly in SCS. Yes you are right. China is flexing its muscles in the SCS. It will play into our hands to get more aggressive about our nuclear and missile program. Hitting the 5Trillion mark is quite a distance away 12 years at least. Considering an average rate of 7% over the next 5 years, we will be a 3 trillion economy in nominal terms. We can do better than 7% if the right policies are in place. That should be good enough to allow us some leeway. If the US falls further in the power game, then all roads should be clear for us.

    I am not a professional to start a blog mate.
     
  7. thakur_ritesh

    thakur_ritesh Administrator Administrator

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    About the GDP, my sense is we will like to keep the rupee traded at around the 50 rupee mark for sometime to come now, our nominal GDP YoY growth rate should be around 14-15% (and there abouts), with real growth rate ideally at 8%, though preferably 9%, which I strongly believe is very doable for at least a decade to come.

    With those figures we should hit the 5-6t usd mark by 2020-22.

    I am not sure but there remains a psychological affect of 5t usd, and by then we should be most definitely amongst the top 5 economies of the world. The other factor I have in mind is, there would be very few countries in this world who would even dare say a word to an economy which would be worth that size, which would be growing at a healthy rate, would be a democracy, and a country with whom most would like to align in whichever way possible. Just the clout would be so big.

    It is around this time, 2020-22, that nuke tests should happen, or better put, I see happening, and while announcing them we should be very confident and once announced should carry them again irrespective of what the world would have to say to us.

    Come on mate, you dont need to be a professional to start a blog. That article has been very nicely done up.
     
  8. LalTopi

    LalTopi Regular Member

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    Yusuf.
    I agree entirely that Nuke tests will be possible as long as we announce that we will also sign the CTBT post the tests. After all, this is also what China and France did (If my memory serves me right). Not sure that the size of the economy would be that much of a factor, as we should be able to match GB and FR GDP in nominal terms within 5 years.

    What are your thoughts on becoming a permanent member of the UN SC post signing of the CTBT?
     
  9. Yusuf

    Yusuf GUARDIAN Administrator

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    The size of the economy is a factor as no one will be able to sanction a 3 or 4 trillion like we faced post 1998.

    UN security council is not going to be won by asking for one. A strong economy and a military increases our chances to get the seat.
     
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  10. trackwhack

    trackwhack Tihar Jail Banned

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    I agree with your points however two issues that should prompt us to test much earlier should be.

    1) NSG membership: If the NSG treats us with disdain then we have to treat them with disdain. We have to make it clear that we will barge in if we are not let in
    2) UNSC reforms - timeline commitment from P5 for reforms. If timeline is too stretched or untenable or if no timeline is set, we test, both a long range missile as well as large warheads.
     
  11. Yusuf

    Yusuf GUARDIAN Administrator

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    Both will not work IMHO. Pakistan will also conduct big bangs and demand a place. Right now India is getting what it needs for its nuclear industry. Civilian plants are getting imported fuel and our own fuel is getting into making weapons grade material. So far so good.
     
  12. trackwhack

    trackwhack Tihar Jail Banned

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    As long as we continue to equate ourselves with the Pukes, what can you expect from the rest of the world. For starters let us stop worrying about Pakistani reactions and what demands they make. If this leads to a breakdown of the NSG, its awesome. If the NSG wants to let Pakistan in thats their headache. I care only about whether India is sitting at these two tables or not.

    If we are not allowed a place then it is imperative that our foreign policy starts reflecting the hostility shown to us.

    We have applied for full membership of the NSG. A refusal is an insult and has to be dealt with. We have to send a message that we mean business. The world cannot ignore the security and economic needs of a fifth of humanity based on such cartels.
     
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  13. Iamanidiot

    Iamanidiot Elite Member Elite Member

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    Yusuf but we don't have a ----ing workable bum design of the optimal yield add to that nuclear fuses for ballistic missiles
     
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  14. Yusuf

    Yusuf GUARDIAN Administrator

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    The demands have already been made. Blackmail will not work. I am not equating India with Pakistan but telling you what will happen if India uses nuclear tests as a threat to get UNSC seat. Idea is to get all of it diplomatically
     
  15. Yusuf

    Yusuf GUARDIAN Administrator

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    Are we making all those missiles to burst crackers? Indian program is fairly advanced. The tests we did in 98 was to weaponise.
     
  16. trackwhack

    trackwhack Tihar Jail Banned

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    Not a threat, a repercussion. We don't need to tell them permanent seat or else. We have cards that we can play too. The case is plain and simple. It does not make any sense to have two puny countries like England and France on the P5 and not have India in there. If we are not there, it is our responsibility to ensure the credibility of that organization is destroyed. Through the nuclear deal we pretty much did that with a slew of such cartels.

    Getting it diplomatically is all ok, but not in 10 years when its all too obvious. We need in now, we should have been in 50 years back and diplomacy has got us nowhere. Whatever we have bargained and got has been due to actions we have taken. If not for the 98 tests and the missile program we would not have got half of what we have now. Arrogant powers can be won over only through our own show of arrogance.
     
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  17. Iamanidiot

    Iamanidiot Elite Member Elite Member

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    Think of it another way may be the IA wants to emulate the Chinese Conventional warheads.All those mijjiles need not carry nooks.A conventional ballistic missile barrage on Rawalpindi and Lahore defence calloney will work wonders in Indo-pak bilateral relations
     
  18. Yusuf

    Yusuf GUARDIAN Administrator

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    Off course. But the point of this thread is to talk about deterrent against China.

    My views on Pak vis a vis use of nukes are here http://defenceforumindia.com/forum/...onse-pakistani-nuclear-strike.html#post477352
     
  19. The Messiah

    The Messiah Bow Before Me! Elite Member

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    Give nuclear tipped agni 3 and bhramos to vietnam.
     
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  20. Iamanidiot

    Iamanidiot Elite Member Elite Member

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    Messiah its a lot of trouble
     
  21. s002wjh

    s002wjh Senior Member Senior Member

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    lol and see whats the reaction will be from US
     

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