Discussion in 'International Politics' started by Vinod2070, Feb 23, 2010.
This guys makes some interesting predictions in his book.
As per him, China can not be a great power.
Nor can India. Some interesting predictions by this guy.
I have not read the book so far. I think this guy has a solid understanding of International geo politics and power structures and is likely to be right more often that not.
India has always had the potential. We have not realized it for a long time. Can we do it now?
How dated is this video? Japan no longer "towers" economically over China or Germany..
Yes, "your country" has declined faster than anticipated. In relative terms of course.
Japan is still a much bigger economy that Germany, last I checked.
George Friedman is forgetting basic law of changes in nature that no power remains at zenith all the time.secondly he is doing mistake in understanding china and india.china is right now challenging usa lets wait for another 5-10 years we'll see real change in usa power.usa right now talking of G-2 realizing the erosion of its power.most the mistake outsiders do is in reading india.hence u get such theories from west like india is hust a amalgamation of different countries sewn together by British empire.He is right that beauracracy is holding back indian economy,saying that indian center is weak he is wrong on that.
Right now the Indian center is week because of coalition politics. I think he is correct in that.
It is difficult for any central government to take really tough decisions in such circumstances or create a long term vision for the country and sell it to the masses.
According to him, Europe is dead, Brasil is isloated, Russia will collapse, China will collapse, India can't even do business with itself and Turkey will rise to reclaim its Ottoman throne over the Muslim world. What a crock of merde. Here are my predictions on that for this century...
Europe will unite and the US will default making the EU the only true Super Power replacing NATO with a European Army.
Brasil will become the hegemonic leader of South America being an energy super power with a strong economy and military.
China will be the new Japan, not collapsed but in long term stagnation.
India will rise similar to Brasil being the hegemonic power over the IO and surpassing China in economy.
Japan will continue to fall, Toyota bankrupt losing car and electronics markets.
Turkey, Once the US defaults, NATO will evaporate and Turkey will be standing against Greece in a united EU. Relations with Europe will worsen over Cyprus/Greece and their economy will collapse. Without Europe, Turkish economy is nothing and with the US unable to afford to prop them up will have no military power.
South Korea will become a stronger influence in Asia. DPRK will either collapse internally or be taken over by force from the South. A united Korea will see impressive growth in economy and power rivaling that of Japan.
Russia has enough energy reserves to keep them funded for a long time. Their biggest threat comes from their own incompetence. The Soviet infrastructure is crumbling and isn't being replaced much less expanded. As the years drag on and this and the domestic economy continues to crumble, the people will grow tired forcing a political coup. A more democratic Russia will emerge sparking better relations with the EU, perhaps even integration. The dreams of the Soviet Empire are lost with the CIS space becoming more independent as the years progress.
USA will default and have to recapitalise their economy. They will be reduced in power but still a major player second only to the EU. NATO will be reworked into a European and North American alliance, we will still work together but with more European voice.
Your making the incorrect assumption that China will come to the negotiating table as the weaker or even equal power.
China always is supposed to be on top and is supposed to be the stronger position.
It was hoped that as China grew it would be more reasonable, But only its assertiveness has grown with its power.
The US knows its stronger it wont back down. China never negotiates as the weaker power or as the equal.
There arises friction.
G2 will never come to pass, China will never concede to partner with the US. recent actions have only confirmed that.
US-China relations will be the same as US-Soviet reasons.
However the Mutually assured destruction is not buy nuclear weapons, But Dollars and Yuaan
There may be some truth in what he says but there are to many factors proving him wrong.
Delhi is still where all military power lies, as well as all police power.
Our infighting between states is not unlike that of the original young United states.
Youth of the nation see India as superpower and cannot fathom dis-unity.
Coalition politics is a strong point of democracy, even if it weakens the system It has wider representation of the people. Most developed nations have Coalition governments.
When India was made a republic in 1950 An American journalist said it would collapse by 1960. In 1970 they said Indira Ghrandi meant the end of India
today its 2010.
The American economy is recovering from a recession.
Indian economy grows by more than 7%
Tell me how right can they be this time around.
Well, he won't be right or wrong because he is from the same country as of that journalist. We can look around us and see that India has not been as effective at the world stage as it could be. We have been unable to improve the governance at home, take any really tough decisions or take any really big initiatives like the Chinese have done.
China comes across as a determined power that knows what it wants and that can't be messed with. India comes across as indecisive that doesn't know what it wants and is indecisive.
i think there are very few who understand how the prc negotiates, and projects it self, and you have done it absolutely aptly. there is no room for a thing called g2, they will rather bulldoze their way to the top on their own terms if the space is not created for them, and certainly one of the virtues of a single party system. they also have done their home work well by building proxies to fight for them around all main power centers across the world.
as for the prediction part goes, its an absolute crap. it is all centered around the us, with the intent of projecting how the us will with the help of its allies sustain it self with all the other emerging powers having to lick the dust in due course of time, and we dont need to wait for 100years to see the world change, just need another two decades, by when the us in gdp numbers would have most certainly been clipped by the prc, and india catching up fast enough.
all one needs is peaceful two decades, though the thing to be looked out for is, are these emerging powers smart enough to not fall in the traps that will be laid out for them, or will they also end up as germany?
WELL i have learned that comparing a young parliamentary democracy to a communist state in political power is not fair play.
The more refined our democracy becomes over time the more, the more effective we will become, At this point of time i can say without a doubt that the refinement process is still on going. The day any Indian can enter politics and get elected is the day we become a mature democracy.
For now India remains as it has always a reactionary force, slow to act but with results clear to see.
In 1962 , the war with china turned the Ghandi state into a military powerhouse.
In 1991, near economic ruin transformed an impoverished state into an economic power house.
^^ I do agree. Do we have the time?
The world is changing too fast around us. To not run is to fall behind.
my mistake in leaving the unsaid from typing resulted in your mistake of reading my post incorrectly.what i meant was that usa is seeing the real china emerging and with in 5-10 years china gonna challenge usa power so to thwart that usa is is talking of G-2.hope its makes clear.
You speak as if all of them are perfect and have no problems of their own.
You have to reasonable in your expectations and situation.
The world is changing my friend, India is one of the many driving factors of that change
They do have their problems and they are not perfect by any means.
It may also happen that they falter and fail and our slow and steady tortoise may even win the race.
I would rather not base my hopes on their weaknesses or issues but making ourselves stronger. As of now there is no doubt that India is losing the mindshare compared to China. The Chindia thingy is already in the past.
Parity with China is that what all of this is about,
Tell me what the big deal is let them get ahead, Let them extend themselves.
As long as our interests are secure i have no issue about how slow or how fast China conducts its business
This is not a race, and even if it were china is the 2nd largest economy and India is the 12th. the gap is plain for any to see.
we cant actualy go against China head on. they have deeper pockets and as a result more influence
we need to focus more on development and growth then some Geo-political squabble.
But its only natural to expect that as we grow, our power grows as that happens, we can focus on spreading our wings a bit.
One thing you should understand is that we may never achieve total parity with China, we may also surpass them. But what ever happens. We still have enough power to secure our interests. and even if we only ever become the 3rd largest economy in the world, our population economy and military would instantly grant us a prestigious position in the world order. and despite our lack of parity that alone will secure our intrests
Our stronger diplomatic position yields us some leverage. And as we grow more important that will only be more valuable
^^ To me again, it is not about parity but being able to secure our interests and play the role that our size demands.
Do you feel we are doing that at present? Do you think China will not hamper us in playing our due role? Does China not want to be the only top dog in Asia?
China is trying to hem us in South Asia and unless we make quick strides in several domains, I think they may well succeed. Our size doesn't guarantee anything. We have been the second largest country forever without anything to show for it.
Is he not the same guy who also named Poland??
Well talking for India, the few things I would like to mention:
One of the strongest military
Second fastest growing economy
Very very srong diplomatic influence
Strong democratic political setup
Growing presence in advance scientific and technological fields
very strong cultural influence
Keeping all this in mind, how can they evade India or China. The person seems to be a PR gys for USA. How can he made prediction for 100 years when none of us would be able to see it? Over all poor attempt.
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