Mideast Imbroglio: An Outcome of Saudi-Iranian rivalry

[sorcerer]

The post-Arab revolution Middle East is apparently divided into three major blocs competing for regional leadership role. The Saudi-led bloc of ossified dictatorships, Iran-led bloc of sectarian leaders, and the Turkey-led revolutionary pro-people bloc are at odds over how to respond to the geopolitical changes taking place in the region.

The oil power Saudi Arabia and the curiously ambitious United Arab Emirates along with post-coup Egyptian warlords are determined to reverse the revolutionary changes in the Middle East. They are pursuing their belligerence on the back of oil dollars, unthinkingly hoping that their treasures are inexhaustible.

They have secured a tactical win in Egypt by installing their military strongman Sisi on the seat of power. Instigated by their foreign colonial masters, they are confident that they will hand over Libya, Tunisia and Yemen to the modern Lawrences of Arabia. In return for their geopolitical favors, they receive not only weapons but also a false sense of prestige. Despite their repressive measures, the Saudis and their regional partners have not been able to curb the surging revolutionary wave. This obviously makes them angrier and more paranoid, leading to more irrational policies.
Those who control Baghdad and Damascus are warlords trying to keep their advancing rivals at bay. Barely controlling the capital cities and some territories here and there, they heavily depend on their Iranian allies (and their allies from outside the region) to manage whatever remains in their control.
The two regional stalwarts wearing their cloaks and turbans — the so-called custodian of the Two Holy Mosques and the self-appointed occultist deputy of the twelfth Imam Mahdi — are helping their clients in Cairo and Damascus to carry out massacres of innocent people.

Turkey along with wavering Qatar and unsure Tunisia would like to see the overdue democratic changes in the region. The best thing about this bloc is that these countries enjoy the goodwill of average citizens in the region and beyond. However, the modern Lawrences of Arabia and their bleating clients are obviously not ready to accept popular demands which undermine their lifestyles of unchecked wickedness.

Mideast Imbroglio: An Outcome of Saudi-Iranian rivalry | StratRisks
Iran, which received Iraq as a political gift after the 2003 US invasion, is in alliance with Syria's Al Assad tyrant family, the Houthi militants in Yemen, and its proxy Hezbollah in Lebanon. The Iranian regime is doing its best to maintain the status quo in its favor until it reaches a comprehensive deal with Uncle Sam in Washington. The Iranian tactics have been disastrous in Iraq and Syria. In both the countries, Iran-backed regimes have lost huge swathes of land to their opponents, but the Iranian egos are content with the bloodshed their policies have produced.

 

[Hari Sud]

Middle East has been hot potato ever since the state of Israel was formed in 1948. That is the latest of the fist fights in that part of world, although considred holy by Muslim, Jews and Christians.

The original fight began when Prophet Mohammed out of nowhere came to Jerusalam to ascend to the heaven and chose that rock where Abraham was about to sacrifice his son to appease the Gods. He did not do that act of sacrifice as the myth says, Gods intervened. Since then from the begining of the Jewish presence in the area, this spot is sacred. And it was so for about a millennium or two, until Prophet Mohammed with a new religion and new a zeal ascended to the heaven using that rock. That act started the fight with Jews and Christians. Later Arab leaders sent a great army in about a hundred years after Mohamed ascending to the heavens to forcibly capture the rock and built a Mosque now called Dome of the Rock.

That fight has been going for that since then.

Jews had been expelled by the Roman in fist century AD, from Judea hence there was none to reclaim that location for the Jews. Hence Arab
occupation was perpetuated. Two millennium later in 1948, Jews came back and they wished that spot back. Not only that, they wished to expell all the Arabs, who now call themselves Palestinions from the historical Jewish Promised Land. They almost succeeded but by early seventies of the last century the oil wealth intervened. Arabs were wealthy but not United enough to remove the Jews but started the fight which goes off and on for the last sixty years. They never scored a victory, rather always defeated by much smarter but lesser in numbers Jews.

If that is not enough, the oil wealth fuelled a revolution in neighbouring Persia now called Iran. Iranians are Muslim but of a different faith, outcome of which was decided immediately after the ascending of Prophet Mohammed to heavens. The war of succession divided Muslims into two groups I.e. Arabs of traditional faith living in Arab lands as Sunnis. The people of Arayan stock living in Iran and a few Arabs chose to breakaway from traditional Muslim philosophy and began to call themselves Shias. The holy book of both is same.

Arabs and Iranians or Sunnis and Shias have had huge trouble with each other. The Arabs carried the message of the Prophet at point of their sword from Spain to India, hence they are too numerous. The Arayan Iranian stayed within their boundaries except they carried their own message to a few places but not much but this resulted in conflict. This conflict between these two factions never ended. It simmers from time to time. Recently an Iranian holy man fueled by the oil wealth carried out a revolution which overturned the existing rulers and established a religiously governed state in Iran. They also instigated other Shias to rebel against Arab domination.

From 2003 onwards, Iraq which is 60% Shia with Arabs as a larger population base had political power handed out to them by the Americans, which other Arab Sunnis did not like. Now a new fight started. The Sunni Arabs draw their monetary support from Saudi Srabia and Shia Arabs of Iraq have the political power and their own oil wealth to support them. The current fight of ISIS with Shia rulers of Syria and Iraq is actually Sunni versus Shia fight with Americans supporting the Iraqi Shias only.

This fight had been going on for 1400 years and is unlikely to end. US has unneccassry jumped into the frey. Saudis will continue to support Arab Sunnis and Iranians will support the Shias.

In all this fight, rest of the world is a mute spectator. Sooner than later US as usual would get tired and look for ways to get out. This war would continue.

Truthfully what has US got to gain. It has much to loose. Hence it should stay out.

Until one or the other faction have a decisive victory and rises to rule for another four hundred years the fight will go on. (Last Turkish Sunni Victory over Iranian Shias happened four hundred years back. There was peace for that long until recent times).

US never understood historically the rise of Muslim in Arabia, hence they are unable to get their mind around who to support. There was no need to pick up a fight with Iranian Mullahs in 1978. Now that they have picked a fight with them, they do not know how to end it. Similarly there was no need to remove Sunnis from power in Iraq. That was a big mistake. Had the Sunni Arabs like Saddam Hussein continued to rule Iraq, there would be no Shia rule in Iraq and no ISIS fighting the Shias. Truthfully Americans never understood the dynamics of power in Middle East. Now they have Jews, fighting the Arabs. Five hundred miles away Shais and Sunnis are fighting with Iranian and Saudi backing. Each of them are mad at America for supporting one side or the other.

Nobody can help this fight, it ends with decisive victory of one faction or the other. By then they have exhausted themselves and looking for ways for peace. I hope it happens sooner than latter.