Malacca Strait will become irrelevant before the end of the decade

Discussion in 'Defence & Strategic Issues' started by trackwhack, Jul 27, 2013.

  1. trackwhack

    trackwhack Tihar Jail Banned

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    While our government and policy makers lag, China is intelligently plugging one of its biggest strategic vulnerability - Malacca Strait.

    As of today, we can safely estimate that more than 40% of China trade passes through the Malacca Strait. But this situation will no longer be relevant by the turn of the decade.

    Trends in shipping through the Baltic shows that in another three to five years more than 50% of Current Chinese shipping volume could pass through Malacca, i.e virtually all of its trade with Europe. The only trade that will still flow through Malacca will be trade with India and Africa and Oil from the Gulf.

    However, with Gwadar fully functional and China trying to buy Chabbar now, all African trade will be moved by rail or truck through Pakistan. If they manage a base in Maldives then they effectively ensure that we cant create a naval blockade, with an already existing base in Gwadar and another in Hambantota. If Chabbar falls, then thats 3 naval bases, so forget about a naval blockade.

    Oil pipelines are being laid at a ferocious pace. Massive contracts with Russia which will supply all of its oil through pipelines over their own territory have already been signed. All of the former Soviet states have also signed over a major chunk of their reserves. Gulf oil will be easily mated to these pipelines and new ones through Pakistan rendering oil tankers obsolete. Oil from Africa will again be siphoned off at Gwadar and Chabbar.

    In fact the situation may be so bad that India can potentially face a naval blockade from oil supplies from the Gulf and Africa, effectively rendering us impotent.

    It was so important to grab the offer that Mauritius made about those two islands. They would have given us massive territorial waters and an effective outpost. Why oh god are our policy makers so stupid and short sighted.

    I could make this a painfully long article with numbers and projections, but this is the inference.

    I dont see Malacca as strategically that significant in the coming decades.

    p.s. China may have also smartly avoided a major chunk of Americas AsiaPac strategy by making Diego Garcia irrelevant
     
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  3. marshal panda

    marshal panda Regular Member

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    Chineese operation in Gwadar will not be smooth !
     
  4. trackwhack

    trackwhack Tihar Jail Banned

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    In 5 years it will be because the war ends in a year.
     
  5. trackwhack

    trackwhack Tihar Jail Banned

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    Correcction in my Initial post, I meant Arctic Ocean below


     
  6. HeinzGud

    HeinzGud Senior Member Senior Member

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    Chinese are planing there move carefully while India is still piecing together the puzzle. IMO India talks big but lacks in action. They have made all of it's potential neighbors enemies except Pakistan which is a enemy nevertheless and still continue it's policy of antagonizing the neighborhood, sometime for the petty politics of its states and sometimes for the world players like USA.

    India should learn from China. Moreover India is in the same situation like China. I mean India has cold relations with its neighbors so does China. Except China has a ally in its back yard i.e. North Korea where India do not have such an ally. China is living next to a super power enemy (not so much though). India is living with a super power enemy. So likewise India should learn from China.
     
  7. Ray

    Ray The Chairman Defence Professionals Moderator

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    LIke making all its neighbours their enemies and build dreams with foreign land far, far away that can be kicked in he teeth by their neighbour faster than lightning?
     
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  8. HeinzGud

    HeinzGud Senior Member Senior Member

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    The so powerful neighbor couldn't even counter our terrorist boys. The so powerful neighbor left it to us Sri Lankans and finally we finished them with in 3 years. So much for big talk.

    We Sri Lankans has to made all of our neighbors our enemies. Even the issue with India we have the bickering of only one state with worthless politicians. We have a good connection with all the other states of India. :p

    Wait till we get rid of 13A
     
    Last edited: Jul 27, 2013
  9. Ray

    Ray The Chairman Defence Professionals Moderator

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    You are correct.

    We are not Buddhist of Sri Lankan origin who has forsaken Buddha's principles and are pseudo Buddhist who are but butchers.

    We are yet to assume the mantle of butchers as you have done.

    If we do so, where will there be a Sri Lanka?

    Never forget that Sri Lanka is but a dot in the ocean as big as a full stop and no more lying at the boot of India!

    And we have won the Merdeka Cup, remember?

    Where will be your big talk when you become a mouse if we shed our culture and religious beliefs as you have done?

    Are you Buddhists?

    Or are you butchers pretending to be followers of a great sage?

    Even Ashoka changed with the beauty of Buddhism, but he would be shocked that there are people in Sri Lanka, who have turned into barbaric hordes making a mockery of Buddhism!

    In Buddhism, you cannot kill life, right?

    But would you know Buddhism?

    YOu adorn it as a fashion statement!
     
    Last edited: Jul 27, 2013
    A chauhan and hit&run like this.
  10. bose

    bose Senior Member Senior Member

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    Learn from your earlier mistakes [ I hope you remember your activities in 1971] and stop the old habit of sleeping with India's enemy... else bigger trouble you invite...

    Without India's help you could not have fought those very same boys.... If India wanted your chief tormentor could have easily escaped...
     
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  11. HeinzGud

    HeinzGud Senior Member Senior Member

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    Yeah the Pacifism of India is evident in JK.

    BTW butchers are butchers anyway. Unless we have not been butchers we would have been part of India by now.
     
  12. HeinzGud

    HeinzGud Senior Member Senior Member

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    Why always you people talk about the "IF" statement?

    We fought the war and we won. So you people are no need to worry about victory.
     
  13. Ray

    Ray The Chairman Defence Professionals Moderator

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    You bet it.

    Or else could we not done a Sri Lanka model?

    We have more resources, right?

    But we are more Buddhist in our philosophy than frauds like you!
     
  14. bose

    bose Senior Member Senior Member

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    We use the "IF" statement because you people are telling lies to whole world that you have done it on your own... If India wanted something bad we could have curved out another example of Bangladesh out of sri lanka... You may not be lucky next time...
     
  15. Ray

    Ray The Chairman Defence Professionals Moderator

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    as far as being a part of India, it was no problem to make you a part of India.

    But who wants junk?
     
  16. hit&run

    hit&run Elite Member Elite Member

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    It is more easier to block/hit Chinese supplies passing via Pakistan or Burma than doing a blockade of IOR/straights of Malacca. Sea lanes has to be kept open, no one will complaint when we will hit Chinese submarines/PLAN trying any misadventure against Indian navy, though.
     
  17. HeinzGud

    HeinzGud Senior Member Senior Member

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    There won't be a next time brother... you chances are over.
     
  18. HeinzGud

    HeinzGud Senior Member Senior Member

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    Resources won't make any one better. Look at some African countries.

    You need to be defiant and valiant. So far India has not shown she is defiant. Be defiant and we will talk about Indian intentions then.

    P.S. It is better to be a fraud than living on the knees.

    Yeah who wants junk?
     
  19. bose

    bose Senior Member Senior Member

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    So confident!! You tried to needle India in 1971 [allowing PAF to re fuel and hosing US Navy without any provocation from Indian side] and then you faced the consequence there after, it did not helped you then 40 years back… there is no surety that sharing same bed with India’s enemy now will help either…

    Do not forget Tamils is our people not yours…

    No one has escaped by killing innocent civilians in the past… nor Sri Lanka will… In justice being done NOW to TAMILS will surely open up new “Chances”… time is on our side…
     
  20. amoy

    amoy Senior Member Senior Member

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  21. HeinzGud

    HeinzGud Senior Member Senior Member

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    Yeah that's why India refused to even take the coolies working in Sri Lanka.

    That's why your Indian state of Tamilnadu keeps do not offer jobs to the Sri Lankan Tamil refugees.

    So much love.

    Our people... heh!

    We do not care about Tamil chances....... Let them try again and as always we will win.
     

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