Libya: Was it for OIL after all?

Discussion in 'West Asia & Africa' started by pmaitra, Apr 5, 2011.

  1. pmaitra

    pmaitra Moderator Moderator

    Joined:
    Mar 10, 2009
    Messages:
    31,663
    Likes Received:
    17,163
    Location:
    EST, USA
    Libya: Was it for OIL after all?

    Readers may kindly refer to few previous threads on the conflict in Libya:
    These threads (except one) have become too large, and I would like this thread to discuss the real motives behind the intervention in Libya.

    Questions:
    • Was the intervention indeed for saving civilians?
    • Do armed rebels qualify to be classified as civilians?
    • Why recognise the rebels?
    • Why did the Russian Federation, PRC, India, Germany and Brazil abstain at the UN vote?

    Some recent news articles:
     
  2.  
  3. Blackwater

    Blackwater Veteran Member Veteran Member

    Joined:
    Jan 9, 2012
    Messages:
    21,002
    Likes Received:
    11,842
    Location:
    Akhand Bharat
    Purely for oil my dear. Aur gadafi obama ka phupha to nahi lagta ha lolllllllllll jokes apart. Libya has 10th largest oil reserve in the world. With saudi, Iraq and Arab world except few are in USA and allies hand ,they want clean sweep.
     
  4. pmaitra

    pmaitra Moderator Moderator

    Joined:
    Mar 10, 2009
    Messages:
    31,663
    Likes Received:
    17,163
    Location:
    EST, USA
    Libya: Rebels set to export first oil shipment

    Libya: Rebels set to export first oil shipment

    The first export of oil from rebel-held areas of eastern Libya for almost three weeks is due to begin later.

    Libya's opposition groups are making plans to load a tanker believed to have now docked at a terminal near Tobruk.

    It comes as Nato air strikes were reported against pro-Gaddafi forces and rebels gathered near the town of Brega.

    Libya's government has remained defiant, with an envoy who is visiting Europe insisting that Col Muammar Gaddafi will not step down.

    Meanwhile Saif al-Islam Gaddafi, son of Col Gaddafi, has told the BBC that Foreign Minister Moussa Koussa did not betray Libya by leaving for the UK.

    He told the BBC's world affairs editor John Simpson that Mr Koussa had travelled to Britain for health reasons and was being pressured into making allegations about Libya's government in an effort to secure immunity from prosecution.

    Export potential
    The Reuters news agency reported that the tanker had arrived at the Marsa el-Hariga export terminal near the town of Tobruk.

    There were unconfirmed reports that the tanker en route to Libya was the Liberia-flagged Equator vessel, owned by Greece-based Dynacom Management.

    Lloyd's List, the shipping news and data provider, says that some 1 million barrels of oil are expected to be loaded on to the tanker - possibly bound for Qatar.

    The small Gulf state has recognised Libya's rebels as the country's legitimate government and has agreed to market oil from rebel areas.

    Libya is Africa's third largest oil producer, but exports have dried up since the anti-Gaddafi uprising began some two months ago.

    Libya had been exporting 1.6m barrels a day.

    Michelle Wiese Bockmann, of Lloyd's List, told the BBC: "The significance is not only that this is the first shipment in 18 days, but it is also a signal that Libya is open to international trade and shipping. It will send a message to other tanker owners."

    The high quality crude was worth about $100m (£62m) at current prices, she said.

    The oil is then most likely to be marketed to countries such as Italy, which has previously been an important buyer of Libya's output, she added.

    Italy's government has also openly backed the rebel administration.


    On Monday, European Union officials clarified legal advice on sanctions, saying that oil exports were allowed as long as revenues did not find their way to the Gaddafi government or state oil company.

    The collapse of exports from Libya has helped drive up oil prices, which on Monday hit a two-and-a-half year high.

    Brent crude rose $2.36 to $121.06, after earlier reaching $121.29. US light, sweet crude rose 53 cents to $108.47, the highest close since September 2008.

    Tripoli defiant
    On the ground on Tuesday, Nato jets bombed Libyan government vehicles near Brega, reports said, as small groups of rebels assembled on the outskirts of the city.

    The air strikes destroyed two in a convoy of eight vehicles, forcing the others back into the centre of Brega, rebels said.

    Nato says Western air strikes have destroyed 30% of Col Gaddafi's forces' military capacity.

    The ongoing clashes came as Libya's government struck a defiant note.

    A senior envoy visiting Europe, Abdelati Obeidi, met Turkish officials on Monday and refused to back down. "Both sides have a rigid stance," a Turkish foreign ministry official told Reuters news agency.

    Click to play: Col Gaddafi's son Saif al-Islam told the BBC's John Simpson Moussa Koussa was "old and sick"

    "One side, the opposition, is insisting that Gaddafi should go. The other side is saying Gaddafi should stay. So there is no breakthrough yet."

    In Tripoli, Saif al-Islam Gaddafi told the BBC's John Simpson that Moussa Koussa had been allowed to leave Libya, and denied that the former foreign minister knew incriminating details about the Lockerbie bombing or other atrocities.

    "The British and the Americans, they know about Lockerbie, they know everything about Lockerbie so there are no secrets anymore," Mr Gaddafi said.

    "Come on. The British government say this: you have no immunity unless you co-operate. He [Moussa Koussa] is sick, he is sick and old so if you put it this way, no immunity of course... [he] will come out with the funny stories."

    Moussa Ibrahim, a prominent government spokesman, also backed the long-term leader, warning that without Col Gaddafi Libya could slide into civil strife.

    "The leader provides Libyan tribes and Libyan population... a unifying figure," he said.

    Libya, Mr Ibrahim said, was open to political reform - "elections, referenda, anything" - but "the leader has to lead this forward".

    Source: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-12969004
     
  5. Nonynon

    Nonynon Regular Member

    Joined:
    Mar 13, 2011
    Messages:
    246
    Likes Received:
    15
    1. Yea, I think oil and internal politics. Maybe also to spare Europe some new refugees. Saving people can be a nice side effect but no more.
    2. I think Armed rebels count as soldiers for the rebel side. Gandafi killing those people can be seen as a pure military action but it doesn't mean its OK to do that and the same for Gandafis soldiers (not so sure about the mercenaries though). So best shorted the war and prevent a bloody civil war that can go on for years.
    3. Recognizing the rebels can get them to like you already and if they really win then they might owe you for it or at least remember it as a good thing about you. That's why Iran and El Qaida are so frustrated, the West is scoring public relation points and there's little they can do about it.
    4. Abstaining from the vote is gambling that Gandafi will win because he will remember that as a good thing. Personally, I think it also has to do with an Eastern block building up and the only reason Turkey isn't with them on this one (Turkey is known as a very possible member of an Eastern block) is because Turkey is Muslim. I wouldn't be too surprised if at some point Gandafi will start using Russian advanced AA weapons at some point. If an Eastern block will be formed now then it means Turkey and most of the rest of the Muslim world would be left out and I think that's a reason why Turkey is trying so hard to do more in Libya - because they don't want an Eastern block without them.
     
    Last edited: Apr 5, 2011
  6. pmaitra

    pmaitra Moderator Moderator

    Joined:
    Mar 10, 2009
    Messages:
    31,663
    Likes Received:
    17,163
    Location:
    EST, USA
    Secret liasons in Libya

    Secret liasons in Libya

    Mark Mazzetti and Eric Schmitt | April 2, 2011
    Times of India


    While President Obama has insisted that no American military ground troops participate in the Libyan campaign, small groups of CIA operatives have been working in Libya for several weeks as part of a shadow force of Westerners that the Obama administration hopes can help bleed Qaddafi's military. In addition, dozens of British special forces and MI6 intelligence officers are inside Libya, directing airstrikes from British jets, gathering intelligence about Libyan government tank columns, artillery pieces and missile installations.

    American officials hope that information gathered by intelligence officers - including the location of Qaddafi's munitions depots and troops - might help weaken Libya's military. In addition, American spies are meeting with rebels to try to fill gaps in understanding who their leaders are, and allegiances of groups opposed to Qaddafi.

    Source: http://www.timescrest.com/world/secret-liasons-in-libya-5110
     
  7. Armand2REP

    Armand2REP CHINI EXPERT Veteran Member

    Joined:
    Dec 17, 2009
    Messages:
    10,397
    Likes Received:
    2,314
    Glad you finally start your political thread about it even being nearly a month late. The Orbat thread wasn't for political discussion but "Order of Battle." You really won't know if the war is about oil until you see the results. Everyone claimed US invaded Iraq for oil and they ended up importing less than before.
     
  8. amoy

    amoy Senior Member Senior Member

    Joined:
    Jan 17, 2010
    Messages:
    5,524
    Likes Received:
    1,548
    So what's your point? Sakorzy not for oil, but merely for France's world "leadership"? or for saving "civilians" with artillery and tanks?
     
  9. Armand2REP

    Armand2REP CHINI EXPERT Veteran Member

    Joined:
    Dec 17, 2009
    Messages:
    10,397
    Likes Received:
    2,314
    Oil, world leadership, saving civilians, regional stability, selling hardware, securing strategic interests, popular support... there are many reasons which culminate in the decision but the most import is the French people want it. Sarko already failed to act for Tunisia and Egypt and has taken much attack over his inaction, if he didn't act now he would surely be done. France is a world power second only to the US in projection capability, sitting on a first tier military and not using it for good is a waste. We cannot fix all the world's problems, but we can pick our battles carefully to help make the world a better and safer place. Africa is our sphere and instead of promoting genocide like China, we try to prevent it.
     
  10. AOE

    AOE Regular Member

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2011
    Messages:
    437
    Likes Received:
    23
    @nonynon and Armand2REP: I agree with your points.

    Everyone will focus on a conflict in the Middle-East as being purely about oil, but not consider the other incentives such as the possibility of bringing democracy to Libya, and preventing Gaddafi from killing more of his people. The same was said about Iraq yet people ignore the many Kurds, Iraqis, and even some Arabs who praised the arrival of US soldiers to topple Saddams regime. Instead people will look at a conflict through a narrow lens, and spew mindless rhetoric.

    I guess since we're all involved in some kind of conspiracy to enslave the world through an oil economy, perhaps we should have kept Hosni Mubarak and the leader of Tunisia in power. After all they were pro-western, and the formers country has a considerable supply of oil in itself.
     
    Last edited: Apr 9, 2011
  11. Armand2REP

    Armand2REP CHINI EXPERT Veteran Member

    Joined:
    Dec 17, 2009
    Messages:
    10,397
    Likes Received:
    2,314
    France is active in many places that we have no oil interests, we have missions in Lebanon, Kosovo, Chad, Ivory Coast, Somalia and Afghanistan where Total has no contracts. France didn't invade Iraq in 2003 and faced much criticism for it... it isn't about the oil.
     
  12. AOE

    AOE Regular Member

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2011
    Messages:
    437
    Likes Received:
    23
    I was being sarcastic. :p

    I don't buy the rhetoric that the west is always motivated for resources in a war, as there are plenty of examples to the contrary as to the ones you just listed. I'm not saying it's not a motivator, but it's not the full picture.
     
  13. The Messiah

    The Messiah Bow Before Me! Elite Member

    Joined:
    Aug 25, 2010
    Messages:
    10,788
    Likes Received:
    4,552
    That is the golden rule applicable to all and not only the west. Wars are fought for one's own benefit and not for another's.
     
  14. pmaitra

    pmaitra Moderator Moderator

    Joined:
    Mar 10, 2009
    Messages:
    31,663
    Likes Received:
    17,163
    Location:
    EST, USA
    You seem to have an issue with political discussion as well as news posts which is totally understandable, what annoys me is that at times several parallel threads exist on the same topic, but then that's me.
     
  15. Armand2REP

    Armand2REP CHINI EXPERT Veteran Member

    Joined:
    Dec 17, 2009
    Messages:
    10,397
    Likes Received:
    2,314
    I certainly have no issue with political discussions, but one thread is for combat related discussion and the other three for political. Now there are four political threads about it. What annoys me is getting my thread derailed when I am trying to document combat action in Libya. Now, feel free to discuss to your heart's content the legality and motives for this war. I may just join in...
     
  16. AOE

    AOE Regular Member

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2011
    Messages:
    437
    Likes Received:
    23
    That's a blanket statement I don't accept, as it means that all wars are equivalent in moral justification which would mean none are worth fighting.
     
  17. amoy

    amoy Senior Member Senior Member

    Joined:
    Jan 17, 2010
    Messages:
    5,524
    Likes Received:
    1,548
    That altruistic "moral" justification aside why don't France or Alliance (whatever u call it) end the war quickly instead of letting it drag on since they could have easily wiped out Col Qaddafi's camp militarily?

    That bunch of rebels seem a complex mixed bunch of defectors, rival tribes, Al Qaeda elements, and even Royalists with different motives/agendas. It'd be no easy task for Sarko to prop up a post-Qaddafi regime that dances to his tune
     
  18. AOE

    AOE Regular Member

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2011
    Messages:
    437
    Likes Received:
    23
    If you want the war to end quickly, then support the idea of grounds forces being sent in. They will end the stalemate and prevent Gaddafi from killing anymore of his people.
     
  19. sandeepdg

    sandeepdg Senior Member Senior Member

    Joined:
    Sep 5, 2009
    Messages:
    2,333
    Likes Received:
    216
    Location:
    Gurgaon/Noida
    For all the allies efforts, it seems the rebels will be crushed in a matter of few weeks and then its back to the old Libya.
     
  20. Nonynon

    Nonynon Regular Member

    Joined:
    Mar 13, 2011
    Messages:
    246
    Likes Received:
    15
    Gandafi can never win at this point, both the west an the Muslim world all assisted the rebels and Gandafi isn't going to forget that. Then again maybe if Russia and China pull something off to neutralise the West and the Muslim world then Gandafi can have a chance...

    Also, as long as the war goes on the rebels opinion of the West improves but this will only work to a point were they will start getting angry the West isn't doing enough so maybe the West wants to go to that point before ending the war. I estimate that point can be reached in a few weeks. The Muslim world on the other hand doesn't need that Rebel public support so if I'm correct about this they will do whatever they can to hasten that point in order to end the war faster. Also, as long as the war goes on more riots can use it for inspiration so in order to stop the Arab riots, the war needs to stop.
     
  21. amitkriit

    amitkriit Senior Member Senior Member

    Joined:
    Jul 17, 2009
    Messages:
    2,465
    Likes Received:
    1,923
    Location:
    La La Land
    Influence of both Russia and China in this region is over-estimated. Gadhaffi lost to the regional politics, and West pulls all the strings in this region.
     

Share This Page