Known unknowns about Modi are catalysts for a reset Indo US relations

[Ray]

Fear and loathing in Washington: The known unknowns about Modi are perfect catalysts for a reset of India-US relations

WASHINGTON: The American establishment is registering a measure of fear while the liberal academic-NGO community a sense of loathing at the prospect of Narendra Modi becoming India's next PM. They are full of questions with no real answers.

If elected, how would a state CM play the national and international game? How would he deal with a US administration whose policy lately has been to hit India on multiple fronts to extract concessions? More importantly, how would he look at a country that denied him a visa and had no contact with him for seven years?

The anti-Modi coalition of Christian evangelists, left-leaning Indian Americans and Muslim activists is gearing up to mount pressure through the US Congress. They will keep the heat on even though the old fervour is gone, especially among Republicans.

The uncertainties, the ambiguities and the "known unknowns" about Modi are actually perfect catalysts for a "reset" of India-US relations currently running at a low. They can create the new chemistry necessary for a more balanced equation better suited to the times. It cannot be the responsibility of one partner to create equilibrium, constantly ignore provocations and appease. A good relationship bears traffic in both directions.

Actually the reset has already begun. Ironically, the button was pushed by the Khobragade affair. Needless provocation sparked a strong Indian response and washed the fuzziness off the relationship. Dialogue has gained in clarity since. The defensive tone has been replaced by a confident articulation of Indian expectations from the relationship. It is neither arrogant nor whiney. Terms of engagement will change further if Indian voters give a clear mandate.

Unfortunately, the last phase of the UPA government left the impression that India will reverse its policies in the face of pressure and noise from Washington. It did so on preferential market access and transfer pricing. This has emboldened US lobbies out to draw more blood. After all who wouldn't use a tactic that works?

Over the past three years, Washington has also come to believe it did India too big a favour with the nuclear deal and received little payback. This premise conveniently ignores the many tangibles (Indian purchases of US defence platforms to the tune of $10 billion in less than a decade) and intangibles (India's decision not to criticise wholesale spying by NSA). A strong government in New Delhi is unlikely to be as patient or as yielding.

Piling on public pressure is bad strategy for the general health of the relationship. It reduces the Indo-US story to one of trade and investment disputes and blurs the original idea for coming together - a geostrategic convergence of interests.

The new government will realise soon enough that an inward-looking Obama administration has had only fitful engagement with the world. That it has paid no special homage to strategic vision, and instead allowed a disaggregation of the India-US relationship. Then it has come after New Delhi issue by issue.

It has attacked India at the behest of big pharma and other business interests whose maximalist agenda has been repeatedly exposed. Their game is to scotch any serious attempt to keep medicine affordable while discrediting India's generic drugs industry through means both fair and foul. In their calculation, if India bends, it would scare smaller, weaker countries from ever contemplating a compulsory licence.

US pharma's brutal overreach has even put the much-touted Trans-Pacific Partnership under a cloud as negotiating countries discover the traps set for them under the guise of protecting intellectual property and copyrights. If the US Trade Representative reviewing India's intellectual property regime downgrades it and puts it on the list of 'Special 301' countries, this will add another twist to an already twisting relationship. Such naming and shaming could lead to sanctions.

Pushing the business agenda of demands drafted by the US Chamber of Commerce at a time when the US is losing international partners faster than it is acquiring them is unwise. Especially when Obama's signature foreign policy effort - the pivot to Asia - keeps reincarnating in lesser and lesser avatars.

Obama had also pledged to strengthen bonds with emerging economies but today all Brics are piled up against America for various reasons. India, Brazil, China and South Africa abstained on a UN resolution condemning the fifth partner Russia's annexation of Crimea. India also abstained on a US-sponsored resolution against Sri Lanka's human rights situation.

This reflects a post-Khobragade realism, a push-back, even a new equilibrium. India will give but also take. For every US demand to open the Indian economy, there would be an equal and opposite demand on completing a "totalisation agreement". India may find it useful to cross-link and leverage defence contracts for something tangible. Surely $10 billion worth of arms can buy relief on H-1B visas or a more honest policy towards a certain neighbour that remains the hub of terrorism. The truth is if Washington can be transactional, so can others.

But this new phase should not obscure the larger logic behind India and the US coming together because the many reasons for convergence remain. Those with a wider window than a four-year election cycle understand that. Equally importantly, those who make national security policy in India know what balance of power is more beneficial.

Fear and loathing in Washington: The known unknowns about Modi are perfect catalysts for a reset of India-US relations - The Times of India

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If Modi forms the Govt, will there be any change in policy towards the US?

If so, what changes do you think wthe new Govt will undertake?

Will it be a more robust interaction or will be confrontationist or will it be an equal partnership?

 

[W.G.Ewald]

Re: Known unknowns about Modi are catalysts for a reset Indo US relati

Why did "fear and questions" become "fear and loathing"? A sexier headline?

Fear and questions in US over prospect of Narendra Modi becoming prime minister - The Economic Times

 

[W.G.Ewald]

Re: Known unknowns about Modi are catalysts for a reset Indo US relati

If Modi forms the Govt, will there be any change in policy towards the US?

If so, what changes do you think wthe new Govt will undertake?

Will it be a more robust interaction or will be confrontationist or will it be an equal partnership?

This is what it takes to get news attention about India. Does Modi wear an asbestos suit?

Burning man grabs politician during live TV debate in India - CNN.com

 

[W.G.Ewald]

Re: Known unknowns about Modi are catalysts for a reset Indo US relati

A group of Republican representatives from the United States Congress traveled to Gujarat Thursday to meet the state's controversial chief minister, Narendra Modi.

Representatives Cynthia Lummis of Wyoming, Aaron Schock of Illinois and Cathy McMorris Rodgers of Washington all said they were eager to work with Gujarat, according to a statement on Mr. Modi's Web site.

http://india.blogs.nytimes.com/2013...e-calling-on-modi/?_php=true&_type=blogs&_r=0

 

[W.G.Ewald]

Re: Known unknowns about Modi are catalysts for a reset Indo US relati

The United States has requested a meeting with Narendra Modi, a candidate for prime minister of India, signaling an attempt to establish a relationship after a chill that dates to 2005, when the American government imposed a visa ban to rebuke him for his role in religious riots in his home state.

A spokesman for the United States Embassy in New Delhi confirmed that the embassy had reached out to Mr. Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party some time ago, and that a meeting would take place. The spokesman, Peter Vrooman, described the invitation to meet with Ambassador Nancy J. Powell as "part of our concentrated outreach to senior political and economic leaders, which began in November, to highlight the U.S.-India relationship."

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/11/w...indian-opposition-leader-it-once-rebuked.html

Then Powell resigned, I think.

 

[JMM99]

Re: Known unknowns about Modi are catalysts for a reset Indo US relati

@Ray,

Given India's tidal wave election, Mr Modi should have a great degree of freedom of action in setting the stage for India's future foreign relations with major powers, including the US. With respect to the US, he does not have to make any sudden moves and can proceed with deliberate speed, sizing up the reaction of the present USG to his electoral success. He also has to take into account (and one can be reasonably assured that he will) that a substantial segment of the present USG has a negative regard for Mr Modi.

The "poster child" for the anti-Modi segment of the present USG is Katrina Lantos Swett, daughter of Tom Lantos (also father of the US "human trafficking" legislation which underlay the prosecution of Ms Khobragade). She presently leads the Lantos Foundation for Human Rights & Justice - whose 2013 Human Rights Prize winner was Hillary Rodham Clinton (currently the leading candidate for the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination). Ms Swett, although herself an unsuccessful political candidate, has been a faithful member of both the West Coast and East Coast Democratic, left-progressive establishments (e.g., Sens. Feinstein, Boxer, Schumer, Gillibrand; the Clintons and the Cuomos).

Ms Lantos-Swett's campaign against Mr Modi has gone on for years; and has been mounted from her position as a USCIRF Commissioner (United States Commission on International Religious Freedom; see her link to her USCIRF statements from 2012). She was re-appointed to that position 11 Apr 2014, together with two other commissioners who have joined with her, Mary Ann Glendon and Dr. M. Zuhdi Jasser (USCIRF link). Here are several of her statements on Mr Modi from 2013-2014:

A Conversation With Katrina Lantos Swett, on Religious Freedom in India (Aug 2013)

'Narendra Modi, poster child of India's failure to punish the violent': US commission (Nov 2013)

Testimony of USCIRF Vice Chair Dr. Katrina Lantos Swett on "The Plight of Religious Minorities in India" (Apr 2014)

US panel wants Modi included on lookout list besides visa ban (May 2014)

Ms Lantos-Swett (and her allies) are not likely to be swayed by arguments contrary to their ideology.

Now we can wait for the results of our Nov congressional elections; although currently, a serious wave election doesn't seem that likely to me - e.g., Gallup, Democratic Party Still Seen More Favorably Than GOP; Both parties face "upside down" net favorable ratings (May 16, 2014):

Election results appear to more clearly favor one party in years when a majority of the country sees that party but not the other in a favorable light. This happened in 2006 and 2008, when the Democrats enjoyed majority average favorable ratings, while about four in 10 Americans had a favorable opinion of the Republican Party. Both elections were Democratic sweeps, with the 2008 elections giving Democrats control over both Congress and the White House for the first time since 1994.

The Republican rout in the 2010 midterms was not foreshadowed in the party's 41% average favorable rating that year, which was essentially no better than perceptions of the party in the election years of 2006 and 2008. However, views of the Democratic Party in 2010 had tumbled from the 2008 average by 11 points, indicating growing disenchantment with the ruling party. Even though the Democrats' 2010 average favorable rating was an insignificant two points higher than the Republicans', Republicans won the House handily and gained Senate seats.

Implications

The Democratic Party maintains a slender lead in favorability over the Republican Party, but both parties are "upside down" in net favorability. The fact that the public does not see either party positively suggests both parties will likely face some difficulties in convincing voters to give them their support this November. But for now, the Republican Party may have the most reason for concern: if its favorability rating hovers in the range in which it currently resides, this will be the lowest favorability rating either party has ever held in an election year. Given the GOP's big hopes this fall -- including claiming a Senate majority -- this low rating could cast cold water on these lofty objectives.

This poll has an interesting discussion of "favorable-unfavorable" ratings in US politics, beyond the bottom line quoted above.

Regards

Mike

 

[prohumanity]

Re: Known unknowns about Modi are catalysts for a reset Indo US relati

Fear because India will be very difficult to manipulate or intimidate...under BJP......loathing because India will demand mutual respect and dignity...under BJP. No more cavity searches of Devyanis of India....no more bad attitude and belittling ...otherwise retaliatory cavity searches might happen of Nancys..
Its not easy for some in west to learn mutual respect as some of them still think they rule the world and are "exceptional" New generation of western nations are going to break these dogmatic and arrogant attitudes and they are already doing it.
Modi and Rajnath are not individuals.....they are a phenomenon.....millions of Modis and Rajnaths can erupt if India is abused by any other major power.
There has been a long list of India haters and de-valuers...starting from Henry Kissinger..Madly Albright, Barbar Box,
and many more. Its not good to alienate 1.25 billion Indians....because 1.3 billion Chinese and 300 million Russians PLUS almost entire Latin America and most of Middle East is already adversarial to West. How many more enemies West needs. Time to mend ties and treat India with mutual respect and decency.
Lastly, using Pakistan against India is an outdated and counterproductive strategy in today's times.

 

[pmaitra]

Re: Known unknowns about Modi are catalysts for a reset Indo US relati

A reset in Indo-US relations will revolve largely around economic realities

Modi knows that a large number of electorates, who would traditionally vote for Congress, have switched sides, and it is believed by many, that it was mainly due to inflation.

Make no mistake, the scourge of unrelenting inflation turned the poor and the middle class against Congress: for the last three-and-a-half years India has been suffering its highest rate of inflation for 20 years, one that has also been higher than the world average.

Source: BBC News - Why did India's Grand Old Party suffer a poll rout?

Considering that Indians have largely voted in favour of a more competitive economic policy, as against state sponsored largesse, it should be no surprise that Mr. Modi will have to concentrate his efforts towards building an economy that is more self-contained.

While it might be too early to speculate, it is quite a possibility that Gen. V. K. Singh is going to become the Defence Minister. If that happens, India is likely to shift focus on domestic manufacturing of expensive defence hardware. In other words, Ural Wagon Zavod's T-90 and Lockheed Martin's C-130J are likely to get the boot.

Noting that there were problems in imports that needed to be ironed out, Singh favoured large scale indigenisation so as to overcome the difficulties of technology denial regimes.

Source: Army Chief VK Singh seeks greater forces-DRDO-industry interface | Latest News & Updates at Daily News & Analysis

Indian bureaucracy has also indicated that they are in no mood to import Solar equipment from the US, and is willing to fight it out in WTO.
Source: United States Challenges India's Restrictions on U.S. Solar Exports | Office of the United States Trade Representative

Under such circumstances, it is quite possible that the US will continue to restrict importing skilled workers, and favour those that have made some prior investment into the US economy, such as, individuals who have studied and graduated from a US university as an out-of-state student.
Source: http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/techtank/posts/2014/04/16-h1b-visa-immigration-reform-west (Do not take every sentence in this article as Gospel.)

It is a well known in economic circles that production of goods is related to, labour (along with capital and land).
Source: Factors of production - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Hence, in a globalized world, if India imposes restriction on free movement of goods from the US to India, the US will be well within its rights to impose restrictions on free movement of labour from India to US.

If this happens, economic ties between the US and India will further abate.

Now, coming back to the banking sector, Mr. Modi does face a few challenges. One challenge would be to curtail the powers of the Reserve Bank of India, that has been running the show, allegedly, on the lines of the International Monetary Fund.

Central bank policies: A Reserve Bank of India panel in January proposed key changes including targeting consumer price inflation and making a committee responsible for monetary policy, and not the RBI Governor alone. This would require changes to the RBI Act. The BJP top brass has not spoken widely on the issue, but it will likely be a tough sell for RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan. He has the backing of some global agencies like the International Monetary Fund. Mr Modi's government may also look to eventually separate the debt management function from the RBI, on the grounds that debt management sometimes conflicts with the central bank's monetary policy stance.
[...]
Banking: The next government will need to help state-run lenders battling rising bad loans caused by the slowing economy, rising interest rates and project delays. Stressed loans in India - either bad or restructured - total $100 billion (Rs. 6 lakh crore), or about 10 per cent of all loans. Fitch Ratings expects that ratio to reach 14 per cent by March 2015. Rising bad loans threaten to choke the gradual recovery in Asia's third-largest economy, according to the OECD. The interim budget in February set aside Rs. 11,200 crore to help the sector meet key capital ratios, but analysts say more money is needed.

It is to be seen how much clout the IMF has over global economics.

Jacob Lew, the Secretary of the US Treasury, has been trying to convince the US Congress to approve the reform bill for IMF.
Source: Testimony of Secretary Jacob J. Lew before the House Financial Services Committee

The banking cartels know very well, and are already preparing, to move some of their eggs from the IMF basket into the BRICS Development Bank's basket. Thus, either the US Congress will approve the IMF reform, if IMF has to remain relevant, or IMF will slowly wither away.

Assuming there is a cooling down of trade between India and the US, it will force India to focus on a self-contained economy, thus making India immune from sanctions, while in the US, there will be more jobs available for ordinary Americans (and personally, I feel the claim that there are not enough skilled Americans, rather exaggerated). On the other hand, if India can isolate itself from the US Dollar, it will no longer be forced to absorb US inflation, as every time the Federal Reserve prints more paper currency, it effectively recycles wealth back to the US, from other countries that hold US Dollar reserves (inflation is US' biggest export). This is the same thing the Reserve Bank of India does - every time it prints paper currency, it recycles wealth back from people's bank accounts back to the RBI.

Eventually, if India is to see long term growth, much of the Indian economy has to be self contained, instead of relying on export and GDP figures, at the cost of inflation - remember, inflation was behind the demolition of Congress.

 

[Ray]

Re: Known unknowns about Modi are catalysts for a reset Indo US relati

@Ray,

Given India's tidal wave election, Mr Modi should have a great degree of freedom of action in setting the stage for India's future foreign relations with major powers, including the US. With respect to the US, he does not have to make any sudden moves and can proceed with deliberate speed, sizing up the reaction of the present USG to his electoral success. He also has to take into account (and one can be reasonably assured that he will) that a substantial segment of the present USG has a negative regard for Mr Modi.

The "poster child" for the anti-Modi segment of the present USG is Katrina Lantos Swett, daughter of Tom Lantos (also father of the US "human trafficking" legislation which underlay the prosecution of Ms Khobragade). She presently leads the Lantos Foundation for Human Rights & Justice - whose 2013 Human Rights Prize winner was Hillary Rodham Clinton (currently the leading candidate for the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination). Ms Swett, although herself an unsuccessful political candidate, has been a faithful member of both the West Coast and East Coast Democratic, left-progressive establishments (e.g., Sens. Feinstein, Boxer, Schumer, Gillibrand; the Clintons and the Cuomos).

Ms Lantos-Swett's campaign against Mr Modi has gone on for years; and has been mounted from her position as a USCIRF Commissioner (United States Commission on International Religious Freedom; see her link to her USCIRF statements from 2012). She was re-appointed to that position 11 Apr 2014, together with two other commissioners who have joined with her, Mary Ann Glendon and Dr. M. Zuhdi Jasser (USCIRF link). Here are several of her statements on Mr Modi from 2013-2014:



Ms Lantos-Swett (and her allies) are not likely to be swayed by arguments contrary to their ideology.

Now we can wait for the results of our Nov congressional elections; although currently, a serious wave election doesn't seem that likely to me - e.g., Gallup, Democratic Party Still Seen More Favorably Than GOP; Both parties face "upside down" net favorable ratings (May 16, 2014):



This poll has an interesting discussion of "favorable-unfavorable" ratings in US politics, beyond the bottom line quoted above.

Regards

Mike

@JMM99

Modi's election has indeed been somewhat of a political tidal wave.

The Congress Party with its 44 seats, has been reduced to a 'recognised organisation' from being a 'recognised party' (since it got less than 55 seats ) under a 1988 Law, is hardly in a position to contribute or oppose. In fact, in Jammu and Kashmir, Delhi, Rajasthan, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Gujarat and Jharkahand, the party failed to win a single seat and has been wiped out and are eating crow since they lampooned the BJP as a party that had no pan India representation.

Notwithstanding, I seriously doubt if the present bonhomie with the Western Nations or Japan will recede. The reasons are simple – India has to kick start its economy and surface from the mood of doom and gloom (caused by lack of jobs, high inflation, flight of capital and investments, skyrocketing food prices, slow down in the manufacturing sector and so on). It is no brainer that it is the western countries and Japan from where the investments will come and the expertise and technology for the manufacturing sector that will generate the jobs.

Further, I would be real surprised if Pakistan and China in the not too distant a future does not undertake some action to test India under the new dispensation, especially test 'strongman' Modi. Hence, it will be a priority to make up for the decade long paralysis the Congress led UPA Govt which has reduced the defence forces practically to the status of being just a ceremonial national fad. India has to refurbish, refit and acquire to make it meaningful to be able to, in a positive and befitting manner taken on the challenges posed by Pakistan and China. Here, again the West has to be banked upon, more so, the US.

Indeed the anti Modi camp led by Ms Lantos-Swett (and her allies) in the US will put hurdles, but with big ticket military acquisition, their voices will become a mere whimper to reduce to a whisper, when the big ticket military acquisitions will translate into jobs for Americans and giving further impetus to the betterment of the US economy.

The Vajpayee led BJP – NDA Govt was the one that started the Next Steps in Strategic Partnership (NSSP) the US. Therefore, it would be natural that this BJP led Alliance in Govt to continue to move the initiative forward.

I would not take the likes of BBC or the English exclusive upper crust opinions seriously since they still have the colonial hangup and are uncomfortable with any PM of India who is not from the champagne gulping, diamond oozing, Queen's English speaking (though I hardly would think an Italian accent is understandable when speaking English) drawing room class.

 

[prohumanity]

Re: Known unknowns about Modi are catalysts for a reset Indo US relati

Your source is BBC...an extremely biased source in favor of old, declining west who still make veiled threats and want people to believe that a giant nation like India or China can not grow economically without their help. India's economy is mostly self sufficient. Only in last 10 years, due to IT and outsourcing a small part of India's total economy became dependent on mercy of west.
Media like BBC, Guardian and The economist tried to malign Mr.Modi and BJP to stop them from winning but ..boy O boy..Indian voters are very smart ..they could smell this stink and ignored the west financed media.
The last 10 years were disaster for Indian middle class and poor families as the fruits of economic growth were robbed and distributed among 1% rich and politically connected. Multinational corporations wanted to create a small powerful rich class who will destroy India's culture and convert Indians into junk food eater, junk TV watchers and intellectually bankrupt so that they can manipulate this nation and maximize their profits. I am impressed with the judgement capacity of an average Indian voters who has a lot of common sense and could read through all this.

 

[mattster]

Re: Known unknowns about Modi are catalysts for a reset Indo US relati

The real hard truth of this matter is fairly simple - the US and India are not in any way critical to each other.

The relationship is really not that important to either country, despite all the platitudes offered by the diplomats.
India has always been the "potential regional power" that could never really get its act together.
It is a country that has been severely hobbled by weak coalition governments that did not have the mandate to deliver robust growth, or solve teething problems, or launch any bold strategic initiatives.

The US on the other hand in its relationship with India has been hobbled by the lack of a cohesive policy towards India......changing with successive administrations, and a total lack of understanding. The US is always distracted by other hot spots and wasteful wars like Iraq.

So both countries have stumbled badly in the last 20 years - the only thing that can change this dynamic is if India becomes a strong economy that has the potential to significantly increase trade with the US. If India develops a 500 millions middle class with spending power to buy the latest hi-tech gadgets, etc......then India with start getting some of the attention that other countries get.

The only scenario that would change this is if the Chinese do something really stupid by getting over aggressive with India or any of the ASEAN countries......like start a war or something. That would quickly change the entire strategic calculus of a lot of players who are sitting on the fence.

If Narendra Modi can turn India into a Top 3 economy, then the relationship will have some wings.
Otherwise it always going to be the same old warmed up tired line about - the 2 biggest democracies in the world should be natural allies...blah, blah, blah !

 

[AVERAGE INDIAN]

Re: Known unknowns about Modi are catalysts for a reset Indo US relati

Forget the western media, Our own chamchas in the country doesn't give good press in general about our country everything is one side bashing example the stories about modi and general Vk singh. Loudly broadcasting India's faults to the world, while willfully ignoring any positives, reflects a terrible insecurity in some domestic media groups and most of the videshi media groups.

 

[Ray]

Re: Known unknowns about Modi are catalysts for a reset Indo US relati

The hard truth is not that the India and US are not mutually compatible in the arena of geopolitics and geostrategy, the faultlines are more historical – the long colonial past makes India wary of the Anglo Saxon dispensation. And US is taken to be Anglo Saxon, even though that may not be a truism since the majority are of the Germanic stock. Yet"¦"¦"¦

Platitudes are but the narrative of the diplomatic interactions and are but natural.

India has never strived to be a 'power', regional or otherwise. A study of Gandhi moral philosophy or Nehru's desire to be the 'conscience of the third world' would indicate the lack or strategic vision or the desire for power or to become a power.

Had India any desire to be a 'Power', then Nehru would not have reined in the Army when it was about to knock on the doors of Muzzafarabad or stop the link that was being established between Punch and the Valley in the first war in Kashmir that had been initiated by Pakistan with its tribal hordes led by officers of the Pak Army.

When China was to occupy Tibet in the 50s by attacking with more than 80,000 troops (CIA estimates). the US nudged India to assist Dalai Lama. India declined to assist. If India indeed wanted to be a 'Power', this was the ideal time to do so. China had the Korean War in hand with over 180,000 Chinese troops in the fray. China would then have to fight Tibet assisted by India with the Tibet people consisted of the Khambas, Golok and other tribes of the East, who knew their territory well and with all military assistance from the US. Nehru did nothing.

So, the question of India wanting to be a 'regional' power or otherwise was never in India's mind. Personally I think it was India's loss, but then I speak from hindsight.

The situation is different now.

True, India may have been constricted by Coalition govts, but there was no lack of understanding of mutual benefits that can accrue. It is just that the wariness that Indians have of the Anglo Saxon colonial past and overdependence on the Communist and Left parties for survival that inhibited the Coalition Govts from acting decisively. One may recall that the last BJP led NDA Coalition Govt had initiated the NSSP (Next Steps in Strategic Partnership) is a diplomatic initiative between the United States and India on cooperation in strategic areas such as nuclear, space and military. It did not reach its aim since the NDA lost power.

Iraq, though some may call the justification of 'Freedom and Democracy' immoral and bogus, yet it was not wasteful if one observes it from the US' national interest. It broke the OPEC stranglehold in using oil as a weapon for their aggrandisation, gave the US an access to the largest 'sweet oil' reserves, and at the same time brought the US closer to the soft underbelly of Russia and within striking distant to the Caspian Sea oil and gas.

Returning to the issue of India, India now has a Govt beyond the crippling assistance from any other political party. It is carrying the 29 other parties that form the NDA for the sake of form and not appear to be rejecting them once in power with an own majority. And the PM, Modi, is a man of his decision and very focused. He is known to be a man who delivers what he promises. He has promised India to be rid of galloping inflation, lowering of food prices, getting more jobs, reviving the manufacturing sector, making India's defence forces strong enough to meet the challenges etc. Modi cannot achieve the same without foreign direct investment, technology infusion, and India cannot be capable of meeting the security challenges from infrastructure within since it has no defence manufacturing infrastructure as such. It just has to depend on the West and Japan.

China and Pakistan will not too far in the future 'test' India. It has to be capable of a suitable response. Hence, there are compulsions for a closer interaction with the West with no time to be lost.

Further, as per Forbes, Chinese economy though still vibrant, is losing steam. India, on the other hand, under Modi, maybe a better option, more so since the labour still is cheap and India has a western culture, non cosmetic and false as in China, that makes the West more comfortable and reliable.

Therefore, the future of the Indo US relationship is bound to fructify and grow.

China is working against itself it appears with all the new found belligerence in the South China Sea.

 

[prohumanity]

Re: Known unknowns about Modi are catalysts for a reset Indo US relati

As the western culture has dictated the rules and thought process of most of the world for last 100+ years, the vocabulary has become western. For example...If China "dominates"...or India "dominates"...All the time trying to compare the two and creating a rift and tension .....The eastern vocabulary is that of ...let's cooperate..grow together ...lets have harmony...lets have a multi-polar order and so on.
There is a fundamental difference in core thought patterns of westerners and easterners...west is individualistic and therefore very narcissistic...so uses language of domination and submission.....East has "we" type thought patterns....we can "coexist"..we can all live in "harmony" ..we can have mutual respect etc. These narcissistic longings for unlimited material wealth by individuals to prove to others that they are "special' or "exceptional" has spread to most of the world like cancer and is fast becoming "world culture" As East grows materially, its own native value system of "we can all live and cooperate and coexist" will become more commonplace. Its sad that Indian mind has to a great extent become like western mind in last few decades.

 

[Hari Sud]

Re: Known unknowns about Modi are catalysts for a reset Indo US relati

Mr. Modi, do not be in any hurry to make friends with US.

Fix the internal political, parliamentary and bureaucratic muddle.

US is aware that Mr. Modi you are mad. For them India is unimportant. But then again US is going to trust the double crosser Pakistan.

US can take India to WTO on patents and get rest of the third world mad. This is a case US is unlikely to win in next five years.

In the mean time US is loosing opportunity after opportunity to boost trade and business.

What if India arrests one of US's junior diplomat in retaliation, for lying on submitted applications, which they did unwittingly not realizing that left leaning politicians are planning a major diplomatic disruption in New York.

A major diplomatic row will break out. US will be powerless to do anything.

In the end whose purpose has been served. It definitely is not US's.

 

[mattster]

Re: Known unknowns about Modi are catalysts for a reset Indo US relati

As the western culture has dictated the rules and thought process of most of the world for last 100+ years, the vocabulary has become western. For example...If China "dominates"...or India "dominates"...All the time trying to compare the two and creating a rift and tension .....The eastern vocabulary is that of ...let's cooperate..grow together ...lets have harmony...lets have a multi-polar order and so on.
There is a fundamental difference in core thought patterns of westerners and easterners...west is individualistic and therefore very narcissistic...so uses language of domination and submission.....East has "we" type thought patterns....we can "coexist"..we can all live in "harmony" ..we can have mutual respect etc. These narcissistic longings for unlimited material wealth by individuals to prove to others that they are "special' or "exceptional" has spread to most of the world like cancer and is fast becoming "world culture" As East grows materially, its own native value system of "we can all live and cooperate and coexist" will become more commonplace. Its sad that Indian mind has to a great extent become like western mind in last few decades.

To write something like this means you know absolutely nuts about Chinese culture.

Don't think all Asians societies share your Indian values. There is no culture in the world that is more materialistic or greedy or ruthless than Chinese culture.
There is no culture that worships wealth and glorifies material success like Chinese culture.
I should know.....I lived among them half my life.

And lastly....there is no country that has humiliated India, and never misses an opportunity to humiliate India like China and its ally Pak.

Simplistic notions of East versus West are just that - simplistic and intellectually lazy.

Go ask the Filipinos or Vietnamese what they think of the China's "we can all live in harmony " as you put it.
The Chinese definition of "we can all live in harmony" is I get to keep an island that is a hundred miles away from your shore, and a thousand miles away from mine.

 

[Ray]

Re: Known unknowns about Modi are catalysts for a reset Indo US relati

Dealing with China is not easy.

If one checks its equation in any dispute, be it trade, political, territorial, one would find it is based on 'My way or the Highway'.

One can clearly note in the Chinese media the haughty, arrogant, pontifications of their politicians or Generals on any issue that concerns a dispute.

If there is a dispute, then it should be resolved by dialogue and mutual give and take.

One just has to note how the Chinese believe in making their writ run in disputes through belligerence and armed actions.

It would be a 'frog in the well' attitude to believe that coexistence can be the byword for equations with China.

While one should attempt to have a relation with China on even keel, but one has to also understand the Chinese mentality and philosophy.

They are after all the 'Middle Kingdom' or so they believe and claim.

Middle Kingdom or "zhōngguó" is the philosophy that started with the Zhou Dynasty that they was the "centre of civilization" or "centre of the world."

The 'Records of the Grand Historian' on which much of the history of China is based, gives the concept zhong to indicate the centre of civilization.

That mentality of their being the sole inheritors of the world so to say, should never be lost sight of.

Emotions cannot overtake pragmatism.

 

[mattster]

Re: Known unknowns about Modi are catalysts for a reset Indo US relati

The thing that really irritates me about some Indians is that no matter how many times they get [MOD Edit: Expletives removed.] by the Chinese......they still think that they can make the Chinese sit down, and be fair and reasonable. How god damned naive can you get ???

There is no such thing as "fair" when China has the upper hand. Chinese culture is simply put - a "dog eat dog" culture.
Even my Chinese friends openly admit that. There is no mercy for the loser.
It either I win or you lose. Its never about we can both win or share !!

Everything for the Chinese is a "ZERO SUM" game.

You can do billions of dollars of trade with China, but that doesn't mean they won't slap you if they think they can get away with it.

 

[Ray]

Re: Known unknowns about Modi are catalysts for a reset Indo US relati

The thing that really irritates me about some Indians is that no matter how many times they get [MOD Edit: Expletives removed.] by the Chinese......they still think that they can make the Chinese sit down, and be fair and reasonable. How god damned naive can you get ???

There is no such thing as "fair" when China has the upper hand. Chinese culture is simply put - a "dog eat dog" culture.
Even my Chinese friends openly admit that. There is no mercy for the loser.
It either I win or you lose. Its never about we can both win or share !!

Everything for the Chinese is a "ZERO SUM" game.

You can do billions of dollars of trade with China, but that doesn't mean they won't slap you if they think they can get away with it.

Not all Indians. Some.

The good old Gandhian piety stuff and Nehru the Blind's philosophy has been ingrained in the multitudes. Passivity par excellence.

Hence, the manner India gets tossed about.

A sort of national masochism?

India is changing.

Peaceful coexistence, yes. But on my terms also.

Modi's first foreign visit, it is said, will be to Japan. Trade, technology and security concerns!

For all what one believes, Japan would produce defence material in India with Indian collaboration, giving the façade that it is Indian and then export and share the profit!!

Today's newspaper indicates power generation, energy requirements from Germany.

Quality over cheap and shoddy quantity that was the mantra with the earlier dispensation.

Modi is made of a different cloth.

 

[JMM99]

Re: Known unknowns about Modi are catalysts for a reset Indo US relati

@Ray, and others

Generally, I enjoyed and was informed by this well-written piece by Kanwal Sibal, Foreign ties will blossom under the new Modi government (IDR, Courtesy: Mail, 20 May 2014); specifically, as to the COA (Course of Action) Mr Sibal suggests for Pres. Obama in regard to Mr Modi and the US DoS:

Our relationship with the US remains very important, but to reinvigorate it the US should not let short-term transactional considerations take precedence over the logic of the strategic relationship.

Modi being the sole victim of the US legislation on religious freedom, the White House should be issuing an Executive Order to annul the State Department's decision to blacklist Modi in the first place.

While Obama's gesture of telephoning Modi and alluding to a Washington visit by him can be appreciated, the fact that as Prime Minister he can now obtain an "A" category US visa does not erase the original insult.

What think you all as to the likelihood of the WH and US DoS admitting error in the "Modi Matter" ?

Regards

Mike