Know Your 'Rafale'

[Compersion]

@ersakthivel @sgarg

thanks for replying

1) if that is the case will there be reprimand on those who put the nation (india) in such a position

2) the ultimate purpose is to get large number of planes with transfer of technology why would france want to supply 36 planes when they can supply over 100+. HAL needs to be involved and they have done the same for Hawk and even Jaguar and to some extent Dhruv.

3) relations between France and india

if we are getting 36 planes for stop gap measure we could have got su30mki and even mig29 ... if we wanted 4.5 generation plane why in such small number. reliance on tejas and fgfa is fine but they are different animals. our amca needs to move fast. the nations also that deal with us later need to know we know what we are doing.

i think what we have done is a stop gap measure to deal with a bad tender and also bad arrangement that was taking us in a wrong approach and direction. what we have done is to deal with france and move it in a direction that is positive and good for india. and france will get a larger order but it will have to be like what we did with su30mki. rafael mki ... if not by the tender it can be away from the tender. we need to develop good relations.

we cannot deal with nations and especially UNSC members by issuing tenders and suddenly cancelling them and giving 36 orders. france is supportive of india in many areas and we need to get on the UNSC. france and the leadership of india will not like to be seen to be fools and being played by others.

it is better india and france work together and i am sure india would have been frank and explained what they really want and are willing to go with france. but we need to fix the system to make sure such a thing does not happen again if what is true that the tender was not done properly. i understand that the last administration did not finalize the deal (one can appreciate why that was not the case and how and why).

10+ years we need to get the best deal for everyone. and i feel this was planned the way it is happening in a larger broader context especially if one looks at the past when rafael at one stage was not in the tender due to non compliance. 36 (initial) order is to test that. and i have a feeling this was ultimately planned long ago and the finer details on how it is actually done is what we are discussing. the tender was designed for france to win. i feel this was a smart geo-political move by india because we have USA and Russia on the side. we also need to develop deep relations with big powers because we never know how and when we will use them later. (it helps by making smart and good decisions the other side will appreciate and want to take things ahead more deepers and strongly.) france needs to know that india will be a partner not a adversary. india needs to know that france will be a partner and not a adversary.

 

[sgarg]

As usual many DDM folks are making this 36 deal to be a teaser for the main 126 MMRCA rafale deal. With french govt giving these 36 rafales at a price lower than the price offered by Dassault in MMRCA, how will GOI buy the 126 MMRCA rafales at extra price is the question.

The French know that MMRCA deal will be cancelled. This is why these 36 are ordered in G-to-G mode.

 

[sgarg]

@Compersion, you are mixing too many things.

MMRCA has gone into endless fruitless negotiations. The tender has not yielded any result so far. How can you or anybody expect this tender to conclude now.

And why would government order these 36 planes outside the tender if tender itself is to be concluded? Makes no sense.

The whole idea is to maintain a relationship with French (likely for reasons of diversifying suppliers). It is clear that the botched MMRCA tender must not damage the relationship any further.

 

[tarunraju]

It's good that they arbitrarily purchased 36 units, outside MMRCA. If they had taken the MMRCA route, and purcahsed 126 (or even 36 units as a 'first-phase'), then the CAG would have taken into account the other bidders, including EF Typhoon's revised low pricing, and reported the Rafale purchase as a net-loss, giving Congis and presstitutes a ton of fodder.

 

[salute]

i read somewhere (in hurry) these rafales not gonna have aesa is that true ???

 

[Sakal Gharelu Ustad]

I have two questions after this deal now:

1) Do we really need ToT from Rafale if the Tejas Mk-2 plan does well as expected?
2) How expensive is the deal without Tot i.e. 4 billion euros for 36 fighters? It cheaper than the deal that Egypt got but we do not know the configuration.

 

[Lions Of Punjab]

Big Indian Political Push Sees #RafaleDeal Through

The splendid irony of the the M-MRCA! After a decade of decidedly non-political tendering and selection based on performance and arithmetic, it has taken a hearty helping of political intervention to push a deal through. The commentary on a selection process that was once trumpeted as patent-worthy is a separate post that's waiting to be written.

The idea that India and France needed to come up with something completely separate from the stubbornly stalled M-MRCA negotiations became clear last year when then Defence Minister Arun Jaitley (who also headed the Finance Ministry in a dual charge) briefed Prime Minister Narendra Modi about the 'stall'. While price negotiations continued at the MoD, the political wheels had no choice but to begin turning. It was the first big indication that a rumours of a collapse were far fetched, and that this government actually intended to get a deal done, whatever that deal was. Pressure from the Indian Air Force helped. Two things began happening in tandem at the time.

The dialogue over 36 Rafales was straight-up political, and did not involve acquisition managers from either side. A channel was opened between the Indian and French governments, which kept the M-MRCA programme teams briefed about progress in discussions. By January this year, the deal was a real option on the table, with India conveying in uncertain terms that if the Indian Air Force were to commit to purchasing 36 Rafales outright, the financial and other terms needed to be markedly better than those under negotiations for the M-MRCA.

In fact, Defence Minister Parrikar was quoted to have said today, "The Rafale fighter deal is a great decision taken on terms and conditions that are better. The jets are to be inducted in IAF in a span of two years."

Parrikar, who played hardball on the M-MRCA negotiations, played (and continues to play) a central role in giving the French government and Dassault the clearest possible message that flexibility would be key to arriving at an 'out of the box' solution de-linked from the MoD negotiations. This happened in February. The French government agreed near instantly to the proposal of 36 aircraft bought outright from Dassault in the full configuration finalised under the M-MRCA technical bid.

Livefist's understanding is that while the the deal for 36 Rafales is separate from the ongoing M-MRCA negotiations (the joint statement clearly states that), there arithmetic is likely to work out as follows: The 36 flyaway Rafales essentially replace the 18 Rafales that were to be purchased outright as part of the M-MRCA, leaving the negotiations to arrive at a deal on the lincense-build of 108 Rafales at HAL. That's 144 Rafale jets under consideration, or eight squadrons. The precise numbers could sway depending on how things move in negotiations -- remember, sticking points over the Dassault-HAL license build remain.

The one solid reality today is this: India will fly the Rafale. There's no longer any doubt about the fact that the French jet will fly in Indian colours. Of course, there are several questions:
Is the new deal an admission that the M-MRCA selection process & 'L1' centric procurement process has essentially failed?
Does the new deal essentially say that the Indian procurement process cannot be purely technical, and will always finally need a political push?
Could this decision have repercussions within the framework of the M-MRCA, in terms of possible action by Eurofighter, the L2 in the contest?
How does the government combat perceptions now that an 'out of the box' political solution was necessary to push through a deal that should have been seen through on merits and negotiations?
What repercussions does the new deal (note, it's still being negotiated) have on India's bargaining power across the M-MRCA table?
Does the new deal get India a better over-all price?

LIVEFIST: Big Indian Political Push Sees #RafaleDeal Through

 

[Compersion]

@sgarg

Thanks for replying. Have to agree with you with those points. We need to reach the destination that was planned. The tender might not be the best way to reach that destination - ideally the tender would have got us there. i dont think it is a question of france. and also it is not a question of rafael and dassault. there is a fascinating thought if it makes financial sense to buy dassualt if it is available for X amount and cheaper compared to the whole tender.

also

the question why order 36 ... in the spirit and times we live in now we cannot do such things without long term and deeper engagement planning. is 36 final ... will there be more and how ... we have to get into a situation it is win-win for india and france where there will be more. if it is only 36 jets and that is finish one has to be honest that would have to be for reasons that are not good (and we would need to deal with it fast and accordingly - i am sure we can).

also

not many people ask and think if india would be able to improve the rafael ... we also have expertise

also

we need to remove the idea that anyone can make a L1 bid at [Y] prices to win and later negotiate on different terms all together which is not good for the other tender bidders. i really feel that it was planned long ago that france would win (we would get a local assembly of french fighter jets) and how we got there is that needs to be seen in the bigger picture.

 

[indiandefencefan]

Now that 36 jets are being inducted , what about the rest of the 126 that were supposed to be acquired ??? Are these all the rafales we are buying or their will be seperate negotiations for TOT ??
Does anyone have any info about this matter?

 

[indiandefencefan]

i read somewhere (in hurry) these rafales not gonna have aesa is that true ???

No the rafales being bought are in accordance to the configuration offered in the MMRCA deal which includes AESA radars

 

[ersakthivel]

Big Indian Political Push Sees #RafaleDeal Through

The splendid irony of the the M-MRCA! After a decade of decidedly non-political tendering and selection based on performance and arithmetic, it has taken a hearty helping of political intervention to push a deal through. The commentary on a selection process that was once trumpeted as patent-worthy is a separate post that's waiting to be written.

The idea that India and France needed to come up with something completely separate from the stubbornly stalled M-MRCA negotiations became clear last year when then Defence Minister Arun Jaitley (who also headed the Finance Ministry in a dual charge) briefed Prime Minister Narendra Modi about the 'stall'. While price negotiations continued at the MoD, the political wheels had no choice but to begin turning. It was the first big indication that a rumours of a collapse were far fetched, and that this government actually intended to get a deal done, whatever that deal was. Pressure from the Indian Air Force helped. Two things began happening in tandem at the time.

The dialogue over 36 Rafales was straight-up political, and did not involve acquisition managers from either side. A channel was opened between the Indian and French governments, which kept the M-MRCA programme teams briefed about progress in discussions. By January this year, the deal was a real option on the table, with India conveying in uncertain terms that if the Indian Air Force were to commit to purchasing 36 Rafales outright, the financial and other terms needed to be markedly better than those under negotiations for the M-MRCA.

In fact, Defence Minister Parrikar was quoted to have said today, "The Rafale fighter deal is a great decision taken on terms and conditions that are better. The jets are to be inducted in IAF in a span of two years."

Parrikar, who played hardball on the M-MRCA negotiations, played (and continues to play) a central role in giving the French government and Dassault the clearest possible message that flexibility would be key to arriving at an 'out of the box' solution de-linked from the MoD negotiations. This happened in February. The French government agreed near instantly to the proposal of 36 aircraft bought outright from Dassault in the full configuration finalised under the M-MRCA technical bid.

Livefist's understanding is that while the the deal for 36 Rafales is separate from the ongoing M-MRCA negotiations (the joint statement clearly states that), there arithmetic is likely to work out as follows: The 36 flyaway Rafales essentially replace the 18 Rafales that were to be purchased outright as part of the M-MRCA, leaving the negotiations to arrive at a deal on the lincense-build of 108 Rafales at HAL. That's 144 Rafale jets under consideration, or eight squadrons. The precise numbers could sway depending on how things move in negotiations -- remember, sticking points over the Dassault-HAL license build remain.

The one solid reality today is this: India will fly the Rafale. There's no longer any doubt about the fact that the French jet will fly in Indian colours. Of course, there are several questions:
Is the new deal an admission that the M-MRCA selection process & 'L1' centric procurement process has essentially failed?
Does the new deal essentially say that the Indian procurement process cannot be purely technical, and will always finally need a political push?
Could this decision have repercussions within the framework of the M-MRCA, in terms of possible action by Eurofighter, the L2 in the contest?
How does the government combat perceptions now that an 'out of the box' political solution was necessary to push through a deal that should have been seen through on merits and negotiations?
What repercussions does the new deal (note, it's still being negotiated) have on India's bargaining power across the M-MRCA table?
Does the new deal get India a better over-all price?

LIVEFIST: Big Indian Political Push Sees #RafaleDeal Through

Ahhh,,,,,,

LIVE fist's understanding!!!!-

"Livefist's understanding is that while the the deal for 36 Rafales is separate from the ongoing M-MRCA negotiations (the joint statement clearly states that), there arithmetic is likely to work out as follows: The 36 flyaway Rafales essentially replace the 18 Rafales that were to be purchased outright as part of the M-MRCA, leaving the negotiations to arrive at a deal on the lincense-build of 108 Rafales at HAL. That's 144 Rafale jets under consideration, or eight squadrons. The precise numbers could sway depending on how things move in negotiations -- remember, sticking points over the Dassault-HAL license build remain."

This is how DDM twists everything out of context.

First the whole pantheon of DDM had no inkling about 36 rafale buy which is happening now.

But how could they claim an understanding that ,"remaining 126 will be built by HAL".

Do they have any understanding about how the seemingly unresolvable TOT, price and guarantee issues(almost all critical and contentious issues!!!) that could not have been sorted out for the past 4 years ,will be sorted out in future?

ANd what about their tons of spurious claims that almost 95 percent of MMRCA contract has been sewn up and the MMRCA deal will be signed by April during Modi visit,

Now it is crystal clear that even the deadline of PM's visit couldn't resolve those issues. How they are going to be resolved any time , with L1 not really being L1 at all.


Till yesterday every one was claiming that the water proof , fool proof , fairest of fair MMRCA tender RFP were so sacrosanct , and all negotiations were going on as per script.

Now all of a sudden GOI conveys its inability to mire itself in endless controversy by signing the deal with L1(who is no more L1 now , thanks to price escalation) who has no intention of honouring RFP rules as well(HAL production of rafale will be more costly and dassault can not guarantee HAL produced rafale flies in the face of RFP rules),

the same DDM turns around and savages the MMRCA scam ridden rule and selection process!!!!

but I was saying from day one, that letting financial bids lapse after selecting L1 is the stupidest thing to do, And if it was done in any private firm the entire negotiating team would have been fired now!!!

If at all they have higlighted these issues as deal breakers they could have claim laurels now.

but when guys like bharath karnard highlighted these same issues many worthies of this tribe and retired chairmarshal types like manmohan bahadur came down like ton of bricks on poor kharnard.

now this 36 straight rafale buy proves that all bharath karnard wrote was correct.

the scam called MMRCA is unworkable scheme of things deviced with the sole intent to fleece the tax payer.

Why?

Allowing financial bids to lapse before finalizing the tender is wrong.

Restricting negotiations with L1 was dead wrong,if at all paralle negotiations were being held with l2 over those same vexing issues like TOT, guarantee, price escalation, Dasasault wont have the option of holding out so long and infact we could have finished the negotiations long ago with complete TOT and production line by now.

Why these Defence journos and chairmarshals endlessly farting out in those endless vayu stratpost conferences couldn't publicly state these things shows ,that every one concerned in this sordid saga has other interests besides coutry's national interest in their mind.

that's why this rafale buy has turned out to be so contentious and foolhardy exercise of shooting ourself in the foot again and again ,with another piecemeal buy with a vacilating MMRCA tender.

And those pious sentiments expressed by Air marshal matheswaran types that the carefully crafted, and endlessly evaluated , MMRCA rafale deal was all about giving the much needed TOT to HAL to build tejas mk2 and AMCA has now been exposed as white lie, because Dassault finally conveyed its inability to give TOT, and stand guarantee at the price it quoted as L1.

this shows what will happen if defence purchases are left to the sole preserve of defence personnel .

Till today no one from DDM fake jour"analistic fable has highlighted this point, which has now come to the public view all by itself.

thats why this tribe of motivated planted fake news carriers a are called presstitutes by the general.

Now even God wont have the idea how Dassault and HAL will arrive at a satisfactory arrangement on all those contentious issues(practically every issue from selecting of JV partner to price , TOT, quality, and guarantee).

because defence journos and retired military personnels are supposed to give truthful insights into these nitty gritties beyond the understanding of common men,

It is not their job to write these flowery stuff like,

"The splendid irony of the the M-MRCA! After a decade of decidedly non-political tendering and selection based on performance and arithmetic, it has taken a hearty helping of political intervention to push a deal through. The commentary on a selection process that was once trumpeted as patent-worthy is a separate post that's waiting to be written."

what is the use of writing that long delayed separate post now,after everything was known to lay public. Instead of doing diagnosis these guys are doing post mortem like an average crime beat green horn reported faithfully repeating police statement on a crime word for word!!!!

What is the use of wailing like this now,"Is the new deal an admission that the M-MRCA selection process & 'L1' centric procurement process has essentially failed?
Does the new deal essentially say that the Indian procurement process cannot be purely technical, and will always finally need a political push?
Could this decision have repercussions within the framework of the M-MRCA, in terms of possible action by Eurofighter, the L2 in the contest?
How does the government combat perceptions now that an 'out of the box' political solution was necessary to push through a deal that should have been seen through on merits and negotiations?
What repercussions does the new deal (note, it's still being negotiated) have on India's bargaining power across the M-MRCA table?
Does the new deal get India a better over-all price?"

 

[Armand2REP]

MMRCA is dead, have no misconceptions about that. 36 confirmed up to 60 is all that will be bought in G2G transfer. IAF only ever wanted this and we know the military calls the shots. After waiting so long I am not angry at this decision, 60 is a healthy sale all made in France. It is not 128 but no matter, deals are pending in Malaysia, Indonesia, UAE and many future markets where Rafale finally becomes the export success sold in the hundreds. The question now is 'what happens to Made in India?

 

[Zebra]

MMRCA is dead, have no misconceptions about that. 36 confirmed up to 60 is all that will be bought in G2G transfer. IAF only ever wanted this and we know the military calls the shots. After waiting so long I am not angry at this decision, 60 is a healthy sale all made in France. It is not 128 but no matter, deals are pending in Malaysia, Indonesia, UAE and many future markets where Rafale finally becomes the export success sold in the hundreds. The question now is 'what happens to Made in India?

Sir, btw it is Make in India and not Made in India.

If I am not wrong.

 

[Illusive]

MMRCA is dead, have no misconceptions about that. 36 confirmed up to 60 is all that will be bought in G2G transfer. IAF only ever wanted this and we know the military calls the shots. After waiting so long I am not angry at this decision, 60 is a healthy sale all made in France. It is not 128 but no matter, deals are pending in Malaysia, Indonesia, UAE and many future markets where Rafale finally becomes the export success sold in the hundreds. The question now is 'what happens to Made in India?

Why not order the 60 straight away if MRCA was dead, media has been saying mrca is still alive though no official confirmation.

 

[Punya Pratap]

The first thing that has to be born in mind here is that Modi has involved the French Govt to ensure that we get these 36 jets at a far better pricing and knowing Modi's track record the remaining 108 Made in India Rafale's also will be at the L1 quoted rates and not on the almost double the rates quoted by Dassault. As Parrikar has bluntly said, Dassault cannot renege on the rates it quoted that made it the L1 in the first place.

If you read between the lines during the addressing of the press meet the flow was >> 36 Rafales through G-2-G route + French Govt supporting Make in India initiative hence the below is the conjuncture:

Involving the French Govt was smart and that gives us not only 2 squads to make up for the Mig 27 retiring from 2016/17 onwards to an extent but it also means that the GoI has decided to get French Govt to help it sort out the dealing with Dassault who has been difficult to negotiate with. The Make in India slogan will be supported by the GoI and French Govt and 50% of Rafale deal has to be realised through Indian supply chain which is going to be windfall for Private Industries in India if they can grab the opportunity. The same procedure shall be applied when the 108 remaining make in India Rafale's come for final negotiation where 50% instead of 30% of total deal shall be ploughed back through Indian domestically produced components in which I think the Pvt sector will be the major player should ensure better delivery frame by HAL as it will ensure a good LRU etc supply chain. This shall take care of the concerns of timely delivery by HAL and DASSAULTS concern that the production rate of HAL made Rafales is going to make the jets expensive. So ideally if we do go for the 108 indigenous jets on ToT then HAL will be a prime integrator and Pvt companies will form the bulk of the supply chain that shall create a better domestic avionics environment and supply chain which is indeed the whole idea behind the Make in India slogan!!

I have always had opposed the Rafale deal coz the UPA had made a mess of the contract and I said it then also that the entire cost analysis is a joke coz the final price (Unit cost + Life Cycle cost) has not been properly calculated as the Govt of the day was the most inept and bungling Govt ever who left the defense forces in a complete mess!! I hope the NDA govt renegotiates the Rafale jet to be made in India or ensures that we get the best rates and the best jets in a timely manner with full ToT that ensures we acquire genuine tech and not some eyewash!!

 

[Armand2REP]

Why not order the 60 straight away if MRCA was dead, media has been saying mrca is still alive though no official confirmation.

Due to elections and budgets, they don't want to commit at once or IAF could have lost the entire deal.

 

[SajeevJino]

MMRCA is dead, have no misconceptions about that. 36 confirmed up to 60 is all that will be bought in G2G transfer. IAF only ever wanted this and we know the military calls the shots. After waiting so long I am not angry at this decision, 60 is a healthy sale all made in France. It is not 128 but no matter, deals are pending in Malaysia, Indonesia, UAE and many future markets where Rafale finally becomes the export success sold in the hundreds. The question now is 'what happens to Made in India?

Hello @Armand2REP so long time .. How are you Sir..!!

Regarding the Deal the 36 is just the Beginning, IAF's minimum Procurement would be more than 3 squadrons

 

[roma]

Ahhh,,,,,,
LIVE fist's understanding!!!!-
This is how DDM twists everything out of context.
First the whole pantheon of DDM had no inkling about 36 rafale buy which is happening now.

Now even God wont have the idea how Dassault and HAL will arrive at a satisfactory arrangement on all those contentious issues(practically every issue from selecting of JV partner to price , TOT, quality, and guarantee).

i have highlighted two points from your post ( hope you dont mind )
and agree with you whole-hardheartedly on all of it

MMRCA is dead, have no misconceptions about that. 36 confirmed up to 60 is all that will be bought in G2G transfer. IAF only ever wanted this and we know the military calls the shots. After waiting so long I am not angry at this decision, 60 is a healthy sale all made in France. It is not 128 but no matter, deals are pending in Malaysia, Indonesia, UAE and many future markets where Rafale finally becomes the export success sold in the hundreds. The question now is 'what happens to Made in India?

Sir, btw it is Make in India and not Made in India.
If I am not wrong.

as for make in india -. please change it to AII - assemble in india
it is most unlikely there will be any great manufacturing technology transferred
more likely just use the lower cost labour to technically keep price down

seriously folks the price has been upped by another 12 BILLION - to 22 Billion
what that money could have done for LCA MK2 and MCA development ?

i can understnad the need to have some rafaels in the system as soon as possible,
given the time-frame of development of SU T50 / PAKFA - FGFA but did we indded
really need to go whole hog ? coudnt we have bout the 36 ( as egypt is doing ? )
and then buy as we go ? in fact that would give us more bargaining power

now we have paid up all up front and we dont have and reserve moves just in case .....

given that egypt and some arab countries are buying the same, it is most likely
that they might be coerced to pass info to pakistan and then china will know
all about our rafael fighter jet , ..... inside out ...so they might know how to counter its
abilities and thus we lose the surprise element

finally the additional 12 billion - a huge 2.5 billion goes back rto our industries ? ....great !

imagine what merely half that extra 12 billion expenditure could have done
for our kaveri engine development !

not singing the blues here - just offering food for thought - and debate !

 

[ersakthivel]

The first thing that has to be born in mind here is that Modi has involved the French Govt to ensure that we get these 36 jets at a far better pricing and knowing Modi's track record the remaining 108 Made in India Rafale's also will be at the L1 quoted rates and not on the almost double the rates quoted by Dassault. As Parrikar has bluntly said, Dassault cannot renege on the rates it quoted that made it the L1 in the first place.

If you read between the lines during the addressing of the press meet the flow was >> 36 Rafales through G-2-G route + French Govt supporting Make in India initiative hence the below is the conjuncture:

Involving the French Govt was smart and that gives us not only 2 squads to make up for the Mig 27 retiring from 2016/17 onwards to an extent but it also means that the GoI has decided to get French Govt to help it sort out the dealing with Dassault who has been difficult to negotiate with. The Make in India slogan will be supported by the GoI and French Govt and 50% of Rafale deal has to be realised through Indian supply chain which is going to be windfall for Private Industries in India if they can grab the opportunity. The same procedure shall be applied when the 108 remaining make in India Rafale's come for final negotiation where 50% instead of 30% of total deal shall be ploughed back through Indian domestically produced components in which I think the Pvt sector will be the major player should ensure better delivery frame by HAL as it will ensure a good LRU etc supply chain. This shall take care of the concerns of timely delivery by HAL and DASSAULTS concern that the production rate of HAL made Rafales is going to make the jets expensive. So ideally if we do go for the 108 indigenous jets on ToT then HAL will be a prime integrator and Pvt companies will form the bulk of the supply chain that shall create a better domestic avionics environment and supply chain which is indeed the whole idea behind the Make in India slogan!!

I have always had opposed the Rafale deal coz the UPA had made a mess of the contract and I said it then also that the entire cost analysis is a joke coz the final price (Unit cost + Life Cycle cost) has not been properly calculated as the Govt of the day was the most inept and bungling Govt ever who left the defense forces in a complete mess!! I hope the NDA govt renegotiates the Rafale jet to be made in India or ensures that we get the best rates and the best jets in a timely manner with full ToT that ensures we acquire genuine tech and not some eyewash!!

No way possible. First of all dassault has to sell the jets to all other countries to earn profit .

SO they would never agree to less than the revised l1 rates and stuff like TOT, guarantee.

thats why the govt has finally decided to bring in a closure on this scam ridden tender called MMRCA.

Now the MMRCA CNC and dassault can negotiate forever. reality is if they dont reach any favorable decision by the end of 36 rafale delivery and tejas mk2 and FGFA start production then they can quietly wind up and say good bye. thats what going to happen. because already modi govt is spending considerable political capital by going against the grain of Make in india campaign by renging even on a foreclosed make in india deal called MMRCA.

And they will unlikely to pander more for IAF whims. SO like mirage-2000 rafale is going to be a niche buy , and in a decade will be overshadowed by FGFA, it is not going to be the prime fighter of IAF after 2030.

They are doing this deal primarily to cut the backlash from french on the MMRCA failure and keep the strategic relationship afloat.

SO all the criticism of guys like Bharath karnard about this scam tender MMRCA(which releases L1 from holding the rates till financial closure is over!!!) is perfectly valid. And guys like Subramanium Swamy were not beating uselss trumpets on this MMRCA scam of endless evaluations by IAF and endless negotiations by MOD's CNC.

To put things into perspective MMRCA tender was floated in 2004, now eleven years later it was not even finished.

but tejas first flew on 2001 on an untested fly by wire tech, now in serial production by 2015!!!

BUt IAF and MOD can't even finish their evaluations and negotiations on a simple off the shelf buy!!!!

But no retd Chairmrashal who complains forever in delays of tejas project in those fart fests called vayu start post conferences , will even open his mouth about this.

In reality MMRCA tender is just another one in the long line of coalgate, 2G, ISRO Davos , common wealth , with financial interests of every one involved in primary and national interest only at the periphery.

What was the purpose of designating some one as L2 and not calling him for negotiation even after L1 increases prices substantially and reneges on all original RFP clauses regarding TOT, timeline, Guarantee and price that couldn't be resolved even after 4 years of negotiation at the highest level?

Now the govt is just keeping the strategic relation ship with france with this piece meal buy, because Parrikar's Su-30 MKI upgraded could replace the rafael is a clear indication that IAF's rafale or nothing and No plan B if rafale fails is just a white lie.

now 36(max possible 63) rafaels wont lift the skies in any future conflict considering the combined numbers of PLAf and PAF.

SO if any significant fleet numbers are needed we have to depend on tejas mk1, mk2 and Su-30 MKI upgraded, which proves parrikar right.

Thats why even today parrikar is saying,"after the initial purchase of 36 Rafale aircraft, the country will have more such planes under "Make in India initiative or Rafale kind of mechanism.""

More such planes could be rafales if dassault relents or extra Su-30 MKI,which can do the job as per Parrikar's earlier comments.

So what is now being operationalised is the much derided plan B.

 

[uoftotaku]

An interesting development missed from all the noise is HOW exactly is Dassault going to be able to produce and supply 36 IAF specific versions of the aircraft in 2 years time when their current production is by all accounts unable to do so. For info:

Dassault currently produces Rafales at a rate of 11 per annum...this is the MINIMUM economically viable number to ensure the production line is kept open as long as possible. In this number they are producing for 4 different "versions" of the aircraft, the single and tandem seat Rafale C and same for Rafale M, both in pre-set quantities every year to supply to French AF and Navy.

The party was spoiled so to speak by Egypt, who ordered 24 birds to be supplied (exactly like we want) in immediate, ready to fly configuration. The French AF "generously" agreed to give up aircraft destined for its squadrons to fulfill this order. IE, Egypt will get essential standard un-customized versions built to French specifications. Dassault will in fact have to carry out some stealthy surgery on the planes to remove sensitive electronics and comms related to the Nuclear Strike role that the Rafale fulfills in their service.

All this jugglery is done for a simple reason, Dassault cannot overnight raise the production numbers. For the foreseeable future it will continue to make only 11 planes a year. To raise production it has to signal to a number of subcontractors about its intent and place orders for so called long lead items, sometimes years in advance. So even if, to fulfill both Egyptian and Indian orders quickly, Dassault plans to raise its production to say 15 a year in the near term, it wont be able to realistically hit that target for at least a couple of years. And remember also that a drastic increase in production would require it to hire extra manpower, which will have to be trained etc before it can be deployed. Its reasonable to assume that Dassault will not break the bank, any rapid step up in production will only be temporary as after the 2 current export orders finish it has to wind down to 11 a year again as per the current status quo.

So we come back to the original point...WHERE are the Indian birds going to come from? Is the French AF going to essentially sacrifice ALL of its slots in the next 2 years? That still means only 12 aircraft will be available for the Indian order ( out of 22 scheduled, 6 for Egypt, 4 for French Navy which cant be switched to AF version due to differences in design)....So either, the French AF is planning to LOAN 24 birds out of its own inventory to India temporarily OR Dassault has been preparing for this order for at least a year before to rapidly ramp up production. Lets consider both options:

- Will the French AF loan its own birds? Perhaps...its shown with the Egypt order a willingness to compromise for the greater good. However there are fundamental problems. Their birds are mostly F1 and F2 type, NOT the new F3 which the IAF wants. They are also set up for French conditions and pilots, so will have to undergo major work to both bring them up to F3 standard and "tropicalise" them. Also they will need english controls hahaha. So this option seems far off

- Dassault has prepared for this. This is intriguing...people here and elsewhere mention Qatar which has wanted 36 birds for a while now. Could we be taking "their slots"? Not likely, For Qatar birds to be already in the pipeline an order would have had to be placed a while ago. But all indications int he last 3 years have been that Qatar has been stonewalling Dassault. Only VERY recently has talk of that order resurfaced but only in the sense that the Qataris were ready to listen to offers again. Nowhere close to placing any orders. So it may be pure coincidence that the number of 36 planes is matching. So where does that leave us? With the rather naughty possibility that this whole thing has been stage managed by the GOI since it got into power. Remember that the Dassault delegation was one of the first to have formal talks to the Modi govt out of all foreign vendors and many rounds of intense and closed door negotiations have been conducted in the year since. Could it be possible that somewhere along the line, the idea of Off the Shelf purchase (which Dassault offered in 2006 remember) was put back on the table and gained favor? Seems likely that negotiations have been going on formulating the commercial terms but with Dassault already being signaled to prepare for imminent orders they may have already ramped up their supply chain. The "announcement" now becomes a show piece, a cornerstone to mark a long planned trip to a key ally to bolster a visit that would otherwise have been devoid of much meat (aside from Rafale there really isnt much in terms of blockbuster dealing in this trip).

So if we see Dassault suddenly pumping out 24 birds a year till 2018, we know what happened.