Kim Jong Il - DEAD!

[Iamanidiot]

Nothing big will happen. It is in both China's and South Korea's interest that North Korea continues to exist. No one will interfere in the dynastic pass-over of power.

Problem is the the generals aka thugs might have personal ambitions which can destroy the plans

 

[Iamanidiot]

South Korea is now facing a big challenge: An after Kim Jong iL's North Korea.
If North Korea remains stable, all parties will follow the protocol but unification may further delayed. If North Korea is unstable, a conflict or even bloody war may break up cost hundreds of thousands of lives. Even though South Korea unites with North, they will have to face 40 million dead poor North Korean with trillions of dollars rebuilding task needed.

The south koreans do not want any refugees from Noko waste of money and resources

 

[kickok1975]

The south koreans do not want any refugees from Noko waste of money and resources

Not really. Korean people are pretty close emotionally and country unification is their highest priority for both North and South. Never underestimate Korean's desire to get an united country.

 

[Iamanidiot]

Not really. Korean people are pretty close emotionally and country unification is their highest priority for both North and South. Never underestimate Korean's desire to get an united country.

People may have all the appeal but it will be the leadership and corporates opinions matter more

 

[asianobserve]

Nothing big will happen. It is in both China's and South Korea's interest that North Korea continues to exist. No one will interfere in the dynastic pass-over of power.

Agree. There might be smaller scale cross-border skirmishes due to NOKORs effort to strengthen its new leader but nothing spectacular. The SOKORs are already used to this successional dramas. The US and SOKOR most certainly would not like to rock the boat at this stage when the World economy is thetering on the brink of collapse.

 

[asianobserve]

On the US side I have a feeling American strategic planners are not so keen to see NOKOR collapse. Their German reunificatuion experience should thought them that the reunified entity actually is not assured to be still compliant with it.

 

[Iamanidiot]

On the US side I have a feeling American strategic planners are not so keen to see NOKOR collapse. Their German reunificatuion experience should thought them that the reunified entity actually is not assured to be still compliant with it.

Put it simply South Korea does not want a NoKo Collapse

 

[thakur_ritesh]

The worrying thing about NK "fairy tale" plots for their Kims is that they have to mix it with a grain of reality. This is where your cross border adventures come in. The sinking of the SK navy ship may only be the start. The "fairy tale" building efforts may yet intensify in the first days, weeks or years of the new very yound Kim.

Yes, but the extent of escalation will depend on to what extent china wants it to be, for now the flare up will be limited and to the extent where it will be manageable because china wouldn't want too many issues to handle and they would rather like to keep the dprk card for another day when they are literally cornered and domestically within dprk where in a make believe world where castle is built on lies and propaganda a small escalation can then be projected many times over, and the people who are no more than the pets one has at one's home will be all too happy to more than believe every word of it.

the fairy tale thing is about how the nature was all too happy to welcome this person when he was born by unusual things happening or how signs appeared that this is the only person to rule dprk, etc. they had built these illusionary images around the two kims.

 

[asianobserve]

Put it simply South Korea does not want a NoKo Collapse

Just consider them hesitant. They desire the stability and the potential political and economic power house that may come out from a reunified Korea while at the same time the fear the mass refugee exodus which may exhaust the South economically and politically. Note that these NOKORs are ill-prepared for the rigors of a modern and economically vibrant.

 

[IBSA]

A problem of the Kim Jong-il sucession maybe his son is a young of twenty-somehow years old. The elders generals can not to accept obeys a young leader and try a coup d'etat

 

[asianobserve]

Yes, but the extent of escalation will depend on to what extent china wants it to be

I don't know if China was informed before the sinking of the Cheonan. All indications was that China was just as surprised as the rest of teh World on this NOKOR action. Of course China had to put a brave face later on.

 

[asianobserve]

A problem of the Kim Jong-il sucession maybe his son is a young of twenty-somehow years old. The elders generals can not to accept obeys a young leader and try a coup d'etat

And I think he studied in Europe. He might actually prefer techno nightclubs over perfectly synchronised mass presentations.

 

[Iamanidiot]

Just consider them hesitant. They desire the stability and the potential political and economic power house that may come out from a reunified Korea while at the same time the fear the mass refugee exodus which may exhaust the South economically and politically. Note that these NOKORs are ill-prepared for the rigors of a modern and economically vibrant.

Most NoKo citizens are put it simply NoKo citizens...Just think of the time and resources that are needed to hammer them into shape does SoKo have the resources to hammer them into shape?.The only reason SoKo fears NoKo is the refugee problem

 

[IBSA]

Independently who assumes the gov of Noko, there no possibility of a reunify in next years


The South Koreans already says they don't wants reunify in Vietnam way - through war - nor a reunify in German way - with most rich side paying the developing of the most poor side. They prefers to wait and help Noko reaches a certain developing level before to absorbs it.

 

[thakur_ritesh]

I don't know if China was informed before the sinking of the Cheonan. All indications was that China was just as surprised as the rest of teh World on this NOKOR action. Of course China had to put a brave face later on.

i dont for a second believe something as huge as sinking of that ship happened without the chinese in the loop, no, not happening. chinese are way too smart for such a thing to happen without them knowing about it.

though a little far fetched, but that comes across as saying that pakistanis didnt know that OBL was in pakistan all the time.

we can be reasonably sure the higher ups would hvae known about it.

 

[asianobserve]

chinese are way too smart

You're giving them too much credit.

 

[Iamanidiot]

i dont for a second believe something as huge as sinking of that ship happened without the chinese in the loop, no, not happening. chinese are way too smart for such a thing to happen without them knowing about it.

though a little far fetched, but that comes across as saying that pakistanis didnt know that OBL was in pakistan all the time.

we can be reasonably sure the higher ups would hvae known about it.

Thakurji the NoKo's are nutters among nutters.The Chinese threatened to ban food shipments because of a border shootout at the China border but nope the Noko's didn't give two hoots

 

[thakur_ritesh]

You're giving them too much credit.

hahaha

well, ......... but then lets put it like this, they are way too involved in dprk's affairs to have let such thing happen without them being in the loop.

 

[SADAKHUSH]

Is it possible that that new leadership will keep the gradual liberalization of economy in place? Since heir apparent was educated in the Switzerland, how and what effect will this have on his decision making? Is he going to move gently towards western influence in order to raise the living conditions of his people? If he does that would some or all of the Military top brass go against and stage a coup d'tetat and bring in new leadership?

 

[asianobserve]

Is it possible that that new leadership will keep the gradual liberalization of economy in place? Since heir apparent was educated in the Switzerland, how and what effect will this have on his decision making? Is he going to move gently towards western influence in order to raise the living conditions of his people? If he does that would some or all of the Military top brass go against and stage a coup d'tetat and bring in new leadership?

He's too young to be independent minded, he may only be a leader by title. It may take him several more yeards to mature in his position.