Japan's Containment Strategy against China

no smoking

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No, the US will not fight physically, but would do everything diplomatically, psychologically and build international consensus against China and put China in an embarrassing spot.
Without these disputes, US will still do that! Actually US has been do that for years and China too! That is all the big power game are about.

China is trying to find its place as a leader of Nations and doing all it can to ensure it.
Therefore, any adverse and sustained 'showcasing' of China as a hegemonic nation with imperialist ambition would be very counterproductive.
Well, when UK became the leader, it was those colonies bearing the blood and fire; when US rose up, it was her neighbours from mexicans to south americans suffered. That is what happend when a big power rising up: someone will be hurt no matter how smart you are.
 

Zero_Wing

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Without these disputes, US will still do that! Actually US has been do that for years and China too! That is all the big power game are about.



Well, when UK became the leader, it was those colonies bearing the blood and fire; when US rose up, it was her neighbours from mexicans to south americans suffered. That is what happend when a big power rising up: someone will be hurt no matter how smart you are.
so you just admitted your country is evil and following in the foot steps of other evil no reformed country's wow smells like hypocrisy
 

bose

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Without these disputes, US will still do that! Actually US has been do that for years and China too! That is all the big power game are about.
The key is if Japan will come out of its passifist mind set... If it can Japan is enough for China...

Well, when UK became the leader, it was those colonies bearing the blood and fire; when US rose up, it was her neighbours from mexicans to south americans suffered. That is what happend when a big power rising up: someone will be hurt no matter how smart you are.
but !!... China is not UK... those smaller countries can choke 80% of your trade by stopping all chinese ships through the strait of Malacca"¦
 

no smoking

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so you just admitted your country is evil and following in the foot steps of other evil no reformed country's wow smells like hypocrisy
I believe every country is evil since they always act only for their own interest.
 

no smoking

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The key is if Japan will come out of its passifist mind set... If it can Japan is enough for China...
It is too late for Japan to come out of its "passifist mind set", with debt level at 200% GDP and 1.3 birth rate, Japan has no money and no man to arm itself. The only way that Japan can fight China is allying with USA.



but !!... China is not UK... those smaller countries can choke 80% of your trade by stopping all chinese ships through the strait of Malacca"¦
First, if we don't include Japanese navy, all those smaller countires' navy combined together won't be able match Chinese power.
Second, it is almost impossible to put those smaller countries into one anti-Chinese alliance simply because they hate each other more than Chinese.
 

bose

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It is too late for Japan to come out of its "passifist mind set", with debt level at 200% GDP and 1.3 birth rate, Japan has no money and no man to arm itself. The only way that Japan can fight China is allying with USA.
There is a saying that goes like this "A dead elephant worth millions"... Never under estimate Japan... if the current Prime Minister of Japan continues for some more time there will be lot of surprises for all... Who could predict that recession hit USA in 1930's will re bound in WW-2 and there after ??

First, if we don't include Japanese navy, all those smaller countires' navy combined together won't be able match Chinese power.
Second, it is almost impossible to put those smaller countries into one anti-Chinese alliance simply because they hate each other more than Chinese.
They have a common interest that is "Hate for China"... this will bring them all together... at the end of the day it is interest and only interest that matters... combining all will be enough to pin down China in SCS itself that is what is needed... They do not need to match Chinese navy one on one"¦ they need the strike capability to deny China control of all SCS"¦ few ships going down will make Chinese exports down to its knees"¦
 

TrueSpirit

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It is too late for Japan to come out of its "passifist mind set", with debt level at 200% GDP and 1.3 birth rate, Japan has no money and no man to arm itself. The only way that Japan can fight China is allying with USA.
Both statements are correct to an extent. Particularly, the Japanese demographic issue is a huge crisis. There seems to be no easy way out of it. Debt issue is something that could be worked out over the short-term. "Debt" would not be a considerable variable when it comes to strategic equations or possible military confrontation between the two nations.

Second, it is almost impossible to put those smaller countries into one anti-Chinese alliance simply because they hate each other more than Chinese
Then, still these small nations can actually form an informal anti-China alliance.

As @Ray Sir remarked above, one should never discount this possibility when we have the precedent of Paki & China.

A common adversary makes many a strange bedfellow close shoulders. That apart, there is no permanent friends or permanent enemies. There is only permanent interests
 
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Ray

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It is too late for Japan to come out of its "passifist mind set", with debt level at 200% GDP
Japan's constitution
Back to the future

Many Japanese who do not support Mr Abe's right-wing views also favour revision, at least of article nine. This is what makes the constitution a pacifist one, for in it Japan renounces war as a sovereign right and even vows not to keep a standing army, air force or navy. Japan's sense of itself as a pacifist nation remains extremely popular. But according to the constitution's current interpretation, Japan may not even come to the aid of allies if they are attacked. Re-interpreting, rather than amending, the constitution would legitimise collective self-defence. Still, for many Japanese it rankles that Japan's "self-defence forces", formed in 1954 and among the world's most sophisticated armed forces, cannot call themselves a standing army. There is broad support for changing the constitution, which has never been amended, so that they can. It is a matter of national pride as much as anything else.
http://www.economist.com/news/asia/2...le-back-future
 

no smoking

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There is a saying that goes like this "A dead elephant worth millions"... Never under estimate Japan... if the current Prime Minister of Japan continues for some more time there will be lot of surprises for all... Who could predict that recession hit USA in 1930's will re bound in WW-2 and there after ??
Who could? Oh, everyone! England, France, Germany, etc, they all know that USA would be the key one in the coming world war! Lots people already predicted the rise of USA in 1890s.

They have a common interest that is "Hate for China"... this will bring them all together... at the end of the day it is interest and only interest that matters... combining all will be enough to pin down China in SCS itself that is what is needed... They do not need to match Chinese navy one on one"¦ they need the strike capability to deny China control of all SCS"¦ few ships going down will make Chinese exports down to its knees"¦
You can say that when these countries speak in one voice regarding China. But so far these countries failed to take unified stance! Why Thailand wants to risk a war against China for philippines when they have no border problem with China? Why cambodians want to shoot chinese boats when they are relying on China for its finance and defence? Why malaysia wants to fight for philippines when they are confronting each other for the same problem?
You forget one thing: China is the biggiest market for all of the south east asian countries. Most of them are making big money from China. It would make no sense for them to wage a war for others interest!
 

no smoking

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Both statements are correct to an extent. Particularly, the Japanese demographic issue is a huge crisis. There seems to be no easy way out of it. Debt issue is something that could be worked out over the short-term. "Debt" would not be a considerable variable when it comes to strategic equations or possible military confrontation between the two nations.
Please tell me how a debt of 200%GDP can be worked out over the short-term when the economy is not growing! "Debt" is a considerable variable when it comes to strategic equation or war. It means how much money you can throw on the table to build up your forces! And it won't be a short term money-burning contest!

Then, still these small nations can actually form an informal anti-China alliance.

As @Ray Sir remarked above, one should never discount this possibility when we have the precedent of Paki & China.
Good, you bring up Pak&China as example!
Does China sign any military alliance treaty with Pak? No!
Does China promise to fight for Pakistan? No!
If Chinese is not willing to fight any potential war against a relevant weaker india for Pak, what the chance do you think these 10 nations will fight a war against a far stronger country for OTHER'S interest?
 
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no smoking

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Japan's constitution
Back to the future

Many Japanese who do not support Mr Abe's right-wing views also favour revision, at least of article nine. This is what makes the constitution a pacifist one, for in it Japan renounces war as a sovereign right and even vows not to keep a standing army, air force or navy. Japan's sense of itself as a pacifist nation remains extremely popular. But according to the constitution's current interpretation, Japan may not even come to the aid of allies if they are attacked. Re-interpreting, rather than amending, the constitution would legitimise collective self-defence. Still, for many Japanese it rankles that Japan's "self-defence forces", formed in 1954 and among the world's most sophisticated armed forces, cannot call themselves a standing army. There is broad support for changing the constitution, which has never been amended, so that they can. It is a matter of national pride as much as anything else.
http://www.economist.com/news/asia/2...le-back-future
There is also a broad opposition on the change of constitution.
Even they made it, it doesn't matter any more! The way they can stand up to Chinese is relying on USA.
 

Ray

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The ones who are wanting a change is more than those who don't want.

I saw this on TV also of those interviewed.

Japanese do not like the Chinese and they are most uncomfortable with the rise of China in its aggressive form.
 

TrueSpirit

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Please tell me how a debt of 200%GDP can be worked out over the short-term when the economy is not growing! "Debt" is a considerable variable when it comes to strategic equation or war. It means how much money you can throw on the table to build up your forces! And it won't be a short term money-burning contest!
One, Japan's economy is already showing signs of recovery, though it is going to be a long journey.

Second, the short-term answer to this debt issue is monetary stimulus (a popular tool in crunch do-or-die situations). Raises inflation & further devalues an already devalued currency, but does the job at hand (i.e. debt-servicing).

Over the long term, there is no substitute for structural reforms which have already been initiated by the new Premier. So, overall things are looking better for Japan on the economic front, than they were half a decade in the past.

The real issue is demographic (which you probably under-estimated). All East-Asian tiger economies were able to sustain double-digit growth figures only when surplus labour was available to their workforce. So, even though productivity increased only marginally for them, more hands-at-work was the primary contributor in their erstwhile stellar performance.

Same goes with China. As its population ages (& effects of one-child policy) while relative proportion of productive workforce in overall population (which is workforce+dependents) decreases, its growth would reach a plateau & then on downward trajectory. This trend is already manifested in recent economic performance & would be more marked after 2025.

EU nations are already reeling under the same catastrophe (despite excellent individual productivity in most nations) & there's no easy way out for them. It is already too late for them.

In India's case also, the same phenomena could be exhibited after 2060. Until that happens, as long as this proportion is on favorable side, nations continue to reap the demographic dividend. There is simply no substitute/aberration to this trend.

Unless, a new Industrial, automobile, semiconductor or IT revolution takes place, sharply raising the productivity of existing workforce, only to partly compensate for the unfavorable mix of demography. But even that would eventually need, more hands-at-work & bigger market for consumption of its produce. We saw similar developments the world over in Eurasia & Americas in 18th-19th century, which lead to colonialism & imperialism.

Point is, the demographic challenge that Japan is confronting today is a loosing war which China too needs to confront within a decade & India after 2060. However, it is also a fact that owing to its size, China would be more favorably placed than the Japanese, in this respect.[/QUOTE]

Good, you bring up Pak&China as example!
Does China sign any military alliance treaty with Pak? No!
Does China promise to fight for Pakistan? No!
If Chinese is not willing to fight any potential war against a relevant weaker india for Pak, what the chance do you think these 10 nations will fight a war against a far stronger country for OTHER'S interest?
There is some Treaty of Friendship akin India's treaty with erstwhile USSR, right ? That is nothing but an undisguised euphemism for military alliance. History is full of such such precedents (especially in the 20th century) when such treaties were invoked to safeguard one's territorial sovereignty against the designs/ambitions of a dominating power.

China supplied fissile material, equipment designs, enrichment & reprocessing technology, conducted nuke tests on Pak's behalf in Lop Nor & continues to run Paki Nuke & Missile program. Does the world need more evidence?

Yes, PLA has not overtly come out in past wars against India but that was owing to the real menace of erstwhile USSR & then, US intervention. However, growing Chinese assertiveness creates an environment where a joint offensive by the two brother-in-arms becomes a distinctive possibility, that cannot be discounted. And it is in this light, India's defence preparedness has to be seen.

Now, the South China sea countries might come together in a military alliance to save their very existence, their territorial integrity which is under growing threat of being subverted by the PRC.

Not a question of "If" & "Whether" but "When".

You have your answers, whether you like them or not.
 
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bose

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Who could? Oh, everyone! England, France, Germany, etc, they all know that USA would be the key one in the coming world war! Lots people already predicted the rise of USA in 1890s.
So it also justifies for Japan too with recent sign of rebounding of economy there"¦

You can say that when these countries speak in one voice regarding China. But so far these countries failed to take unified stance! Why Thailand wants to risk a war against China for philippines when they have no border problem with China? Why cambodians want to shoot chinese boats when they are relying on China for its finance and defence? Why malaysia wants to fight for philippines when they are confronting each other for the same problem?

These all countries speak in one voice to resist Chinese ill intention in SCS is concerned"¦ Period

Regarding the Cambodia, those same brave men threw out the fascist & killer regime of Pol Pot supported by China"¦

I have personally seen the hate rate for Chinese in this region, all hate you people to the core"¦ If need be all will come together to fight the evil"¦ today it may be Philippines tomorrow it may be Malaysia"¦



You forget one thing: China is the biggiest market for all of the south east asian countries. Most of them are making big money from China. It would make no sense for them to wage a war for others interest!
China is not the only market in the region... so as Indonesia, Vietnam, South Korea and other countries... With un fair trade practices in China put in place to stop facing compitition from outside... there is noting to gain from China....
 

t_co

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@TrueSpirit

Japan is trying to devalue, but this creates problems when the average maturity of debt being issued in the Japanese government bond (JGB) market is over seven years long. This refers to the average repayment period of all bonds being issued. No sane investor will buy a long-duration JGB package at low interest rates in the face of rising inflation risks from aggressive quantitative easing. Indeed, Japanese banks themselves - supposedly the least exposed to any inflationary shift, since their liabilities (e.g. demand deposits and CDs) are funded in the same currency as their assets (government debt) - have shortened their average maturity holdings to under two years; foreign investors (China, Korea, US) have shortened yet further.

So where is all the long-term debt going? Currently, many elderly Japanese, out of a sense of patriotic duty (or extreme risk aversion) hold lots of long-term debt either directly or through their pension plans and life insurance policies. However, because of Japan's aging society, they have to sell off those assets for medical bills, day-to-day expenses, and asset liquidation at death, so that pool is slowly drying up, no matter how patriotic they are - the Japanese elderly are turning into net sellers of long-duration Japanese bonds. When that happens, the Japanese government will have no option but to shorten the maturity of its debt profile in the face of headwinds it has created by printing so many yen - it will have to issue a bunch of short term debt into a market that is rapidly jacking up nominal interest rates because its inflationary expectations are rapidly rising. And instead of fixing the problem, all that does is accelerate the day of reckoning for Japan's balance sheet.

Now, what I just wrote about is "dry tinder" - it's conditions that make the JGB market dangerous for the Japanese government. They could navigate it if no one ----s with them, but then all it would take is one Soros to completely ruin their day - and New York financiers are not exactly forgiving of close allies, either; just look at how badly Soros blew up the Bank of England in '92. On top of that, China - a geopolitical rival being hurt by Japan's assertive defense posture - and South Korea - an economic rival being hurt in export markets by Japanese devaluation - hold close to $280bn in JGBs that they could offload at the worst possible moment.

Basically, Shinzo Abe's game plan is to try to navigate the Japanese ship through dangerous waters, while anyone from opportunistic vultures to his worst rivals - acting on their own, not necessarily in concert - could send waves his way large enough to completely capsize him.

And on top of this, Abe is acting up in front of Beijing. I think Xi is just waiting for Abenomics to enter its most risky period, and then drop an anvil into the JGB market to teach Japan a brutal lesson not to mess with the neighborhood hegemon. Perhaps it's better this way, that China can formally show its dominance over Japan without shedding a drop of blood.
 
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no smoking

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The ones who are wanting a change is more than those who don't want.
People always wants change when they are stuck in recession. The question is HOW! Some want the change in this area while others may want other kinds of change. Remember Japan has been discussing this for 20 years and they still cannot make up a road map until today! That shows how complicated it would be!

I saw this on TV also of those interviewed.
You do know that each TV channel has its own political stance, right!

Japanese do not like the Chinese and they are most uncomfortable with the rise of China in its aggressive form.
No one like the rise of any of its neighbours, especially when she owns 20millions lives to her neighbour.
 

no smoking

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One, Japan's economy is already showing signs of recovery, though it is going to be a long journey.

Second, the short-term answer to this debt issue is monetary stimulus (a popular tool in crunch do-or-die situations). Raises inflation & further devalues an already devalued currency, but does the job at hand (i.e. debt-servicing).
This solution was used before. It didn't work! The problem for Japan is: in the past they are holding certain level of production chain alone, they are losing their market share to Korea/Europe and even china starts to squeeze their profit. They have the money but they don't see the increase of sales!

Over the long term, there is no substitute for structural reforms which have already been initiated by the new Premier. So, overall things are looking better for Japan on the economic front, than they were half a decade in the past.
Tell me what kind of structural reforms is initiated by Abe?

Point is, the demographic challenge that Japan is confronting today is a loosing war which China too needs to confront within a decade & India after 2060. However, it is also a fact that owing to its size, China would be more favorably placed than the Japanese, in this respect.
Demographic challenge can be overcome by immigration, increase birth rate or improve productivity. Considering Japan's culture tradition, population intensity and technology level, all three don't work for them. For China, we still have lots of space for these 3 solutions. For india, the problem is not demographic which is too remote. The current challenge is the race between population increase and shortage of resources!

There is some Treaty of Friendship akin India's treaty with erstwhile USSR, right ? That is nothing but an undisguised euphemism for military alliance. History is full of such such precedents (especially in the 20th century) when such treaties were invoked to safeguard one's territorial sovereignty against the designs/ambitions of a dominating power.

China supplied fissile material, equipment designs, enrichment & reprocessing technology, conducted nuke tests on Pak's behalf in Lop Nor & continues to run Paki Nuke & Missile program. Does the world need more evidence?

Yes, PLA has not overtly come out in past wars against India but that was owing to the real menace of erstwhile USSR & then, US intervention. However, growing Chinese assertiveness creates an environment where a joint offensive by the two brother-in-arms becomes a distinctive possibility, that cannot be discounted. And it is in this light, India's defence preparedness has to be seen.

Now, the South China sea countries might come together in a military alliance to save their very existence, their territorial integrity which is under growing threat of being subverted by the PRC.

Not a question of "If" & "Whether" but "When".

You have your answers, whether you like them or not.[/QUOTE]
 

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