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IS THE UNITED STATES CUTTING PAKISTAN OFF? THE POLITICS OF MILITARY AID
http://warontherocks.com/2015/08/is...ng-pakistan-off-the-politics-of-military-aid/
Ending U.S. reimbursements to Pakistan's military is not as simple as it sounds. The way Washington handles this delicate issue could have a big impact on Pakistan's behavior as well as on militant groups with American blood on their hands.
U.S. policymakers have learned a lot of hard lessons since the invasion of Afghanistan months after 9/11. One of them is that no realistic inducements or threats of coercion are likely to change the Pakistan military’s strategic calculus regarding support for militant groups like the Haqqani network. The most lethal arm of the Taliban insurgency and a critical ally for the Pakistan military, the Haqqanis became the bête noire for the United States in Afghanistan. Most U.S. forces have withdrawn from Afghanistan, but the group nevertheless was a major subject of discussion over the weekend in Islamabad, where U.S. national security advisor Susan Rice met with Pakistani civilian and military leaders.
The visit came on the heels of an announcement that U.S. Secretary of Defense Ash Carter declined to certify that Pakistan had taken adequate steps against the Haqqani network, which is believed to be responsible for a recent spate of attacks in Afghanistan. Unless Carter reverses this decision, Pakistan’s military is out $300 million in what is called “Coalition Support Funds.” That still leaves $700 million in authorized money on the table for the fiscal year, and that money is unlikely to be withheld.* The financial loss of $300 million is not inconsequential, but the political symbolism of the decision is the real story.
Why We Pay
After 9/11, a new authority was created to enable the United States to reimburse coalition partners for their logistical and combat support of U.S. military operations connected with the global war on terror. The Department of Defense administered these reimbursements, Coalition Support Funds (CSF), for costs incurred above and beyond normal operating expenditures. Almost 30 countries have received CSF, but Pakistan is far and away the largest recipient. Pakistan has pocketed approximately 82 percent of the money disbursed since 9/11.
Theoretically, CSF was intended to enable Pakistan military operations against militants in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) in support of Operation Enduring Freedom. These operations were considered critical to supporting the NATO / ISAF mission in Afghanistan by reducing cross-border violence emanating from Pakistan. In reality, CSF also became an inducement used to keep open the Ground Lines of Communication (GLOCs) into Afghanistan. Today, this latter objective is less important as a result of the U.S. drawdown. Only 9,800 troops remain in Afghanistan, with most of them focused on advising or counterterrorism. The numbers fluctuate, but Pakistan still maintains more than 100,000 troops in the FATA. These forces are deployed to fight the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, which is waging an insurgency against the Pakistani state. Many observers do not think that Pakistan would pull its troops out if CSF stopped. More importantly, even if they did, the NATO/ISAF combat mission in Afghanistan is over and thus the original rationale for CSF no longer exists. So why did Congress reauthorize another $1 billion in CSF for Pakistan for the latest fiscal year?
First, some U.S. policymakers lack confidence that Pakistan would keep its troops in the FATA if the money stopped. Although the Pakistan military does not target all the groups the United States wants it to, the presence of Pakistani troops does constrain the operating environment for al-Qaeda. Those who fear Pakistan might pull its troops from FATA if CSF stopped believe that although the original rationale for CSF no longer applies, reimbursements enable operations that help meet U.S. counterterrorism objectives. Second, and relatedly, some policymakers believe that CSF remains a necessary sweetener to induce tactical counterterrorism cooperation, especially against al-Qaeda and given the potential rise of the Islamic State in the region. There is a sense, not entirely unfounded, that CSF can provide leverage to affect tactical shifts in Pakistani behavior, such as keeping the GLOCs open. The decision not to certify Pakistani action against the Haqqanis will further test this proposition. Third, as long as there are U.S. forces in Afghanistan, some U.S. policymakers and military officials remain leery of turning off the tap since they believe the threat coming from across the border would be even worse if the Pakistan military reduced its force presence. Fourth, some policymakers likely worry that cutting off CSF will fuel Pakistan’s narrative of U.S. abandonment and with it more bad behavior.
How We Pay
The United States provided reimbursements to Pakistan with little oversight through 2008, when the Government Accountability Office issued a report criticizing this practice. This led the Department of Defense to institute more stringent procedures. Receipts piled up and the time between expenditure and reimbursement grew, causing CSF delays to become an irritant in the bilateral relationship with Pakistan. Frustration was already mounting in the United States, largely because of Pakistan’s ongoing support for militant groups like the Haqqani network. Then came the annus horribilis, which began in 2011 with the Raymond Davis episode. In May, U.S. Navy Seals killed Osama bin Laden in Abbottabad. Five months later, NATO troops killed Pakistani forces during an accidental clash at two Pakistan military checkpoints in the Pakistani border area of Salala. The United States refused to apologize for the Salala incident, which many Pakistanis believed was deliberate. Pakistan closed the GLOCs; the United States froze CSF.
The relationship cratered, but both countries walked back from the precipice. The United States issued an apology for Salala in summer 2012 and Pakistan reopened the GLOCs. Money began flowing once again. As part of the effort to rebuild the relationship, the Department of Defense worked hard to streamline the reimbursement process. These efforts included the creation of standard categories of expenditures (such as food, water, fuel, and ammunition) expended in support of U.S. military efforts. At the same time, however, Congress prohibited reimbursements for the roughly seven-month period when the GLOCs were closed and mandated that future CSF was contingent on Pakistan keeping the GLOCs open. Congress also legislated that Pakistan could not receive CSF unless the secretary of defense certified that security was being maintained along the GLOCs, and that Pakistan was making demonstrable efforts both against al Qaeda and other militant groups and to counter the threat of improvised explosive devices (IEDs) in Afghanistan. These provisions were updated in fiscal year 2014 to include cooperating with U.S. counterterrorism efforts against the Haqqani network and other militant groups like Lashkar-e-Taiba, and not supporting terrorist activities against the United States or coalition forces in Afghanistan. The secretary of defense, in coordination with the secretary of state, may waive these restrictions if it is in the U.S. national security interest to do so. No secretary of defense has ever certified. Instead, multiple secretaries waived certification on national security grounds.
Continued below
http://warontherocks.com/2015/08/is...ng-pakistan-off-the-politics-of-military-aid/
Ending U.S. reimbursements to Pakistan's military is not as simple as it sounds. The way Washington handles this delicate issue could have a big impact on Pakistan's behavior as well as on militant groups with American blood on their hands.
U.S. policymakers have learned a lot of hard lessons since the invasion of Afghanistan months after 9/11. One of them is that no realistic inducements or threats of coercion are likely to change the Pakistan military’s strategic calculus regarding support for militant groups like the Haqqani network. The most lethal arm of the Taliban insurgency and a critical ally for the Pakistan military, the Haqqanis became the bête noire for the United States in Afghanistan. Most U.S. forces have withdrawn from Afghanistan, but the group nevertheless was a major subject of discussion over the weekend in Islamabad, where U.S. national security advisor Susan Rice met with Pakistani civilian and military leaders.
The visit came on the heels of an announcement that U.S. Secretary of Defense Ash Carter declined to certify that Pakistan had taken adequate steps against the Haqqani network, which is believed to be responsible for a recent spate of attacks in Afghanistan. Unless Carter reverses this decision, Pakistan’s military is out $300 million in what is called “Coalition Support Funds.” That still leaves $700 million in authorized money on the table for the fiscal year, and that money is unlikely to be withheld.* The financial loss of $300 million is not inconsequential, but the political symbolism of the decision is the real story.
Why We Pay
After 9/11, a new authority was created to enable the United States to reimburse coalition partners for their logistical and combat support of U.S. military operations connected with the global war on terror. The Department of Defense administered these reimbursements, Coalition Support Funds (CSF), for costs incurred above and beyond normal operating expenditures. Almost 30 countries have received CSF, but Pakistan is far and away the largest recipient. Pakistan has pocketed approximately 82 percent of the money disbursed since 9/11.
Theoretically, CSF was intended to enable Pakistan military operations against militants in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) in support of Operation Enduring Freedom. These operations were considered critical to supporting the NATO / ISAF mission in Afghanistan by reducing cross-border violence emanating from Pakistan. In reality, CSF also became an inducement used to keep open the Ground Lines of Communication (GLOCs) into Afghanistan. Today, this latter objective is less important as a result of the U.S. drawdown. Only 9,800 troops remain in Afghanistan, with most of them focused on advising or counterterrorism. The numbers fluctuate, but Pakistan still maintains more than 100,000 troops in the FATA. These forces are deployed to fight the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, which is waging an insurgency against the Pakistani state. Many observers do not think that Pakistan would pull its troops out if CSF stopped. More importantly, even if they did, the NATO/ISAF combat mission in Afghanistan is over and thus the original rationale for CSF no longer exists. So why did Congress reauthorize another $1 billion in CSF for Pakistan for the latest fiscal year?
First, some U.S. policymakers lack confidence that Pakistan would keep its troops in the FATA if the money stopped. Although the Pakistan military does not target all the groups the United States wants it to, the presence of Pakistani troops does constrain the operating environment for al-Qaeda. Those who fear Pakistan might pull its troops from FATA if CSF stopped believe that although the original rationale for CSF no longer applies, reimbursements enable operations that help meet U.S. counterterrorism objectives. Second, and relatedly, some policymakers believe that CSF remains a necessary sweetener to induce tactical counterterrorism cooperation, especially against al-Qaeda and given the potential rise of the Islamic State in the region. There is a sense, not entirely unfounded, that CSF can provide leverage to affect tactical shifts in Pakistani behavior, such as keeping the GLOCs open. The decision not to certify Pakistani action against the Haqqanis will further test this proposition. Third, as long as there are U.S. forces in Afghanistan, some U.S. policymakers and military officials remain leery of turning off the tap since they believe the threat coming from across the border would be even worse if the Pakistan military reduced its force presence. Fourth, some policymakers likely worry that cutting off CSF will fuel Pakistan’s narrative of U.S. abandonment and with it more bad behavior.
How We Pay
The United States provided reimbursements to Pakistan with little oversight through 2008, when the Government Accountability Office issued a report criticizing this practice. This led the Department of Defense to institute more stringent procedures. Receipts piled up and the time between expenditure and reimbursement grew, causing CSF delays to become an irritant in the bilateral relationship with Pakistan. Frustration was already mounting in the United States, largely because of Pakistan’s ongoing support for militant groups like the Haqqani network. Then came the annus horribilis, which began in 2011 with the Raymond Davis episode. In May, U.S. Navy Seals killed Osama bin Laden in Abbottabad. Five months later, NATO troops killed Pakistani forces during an accidental clash at two Pakistan military checkpoints in the Pakistani border area of Salala. The United States refused to apologize for the Salala incident, which many Pakistanis believed was deliberate. Pakistan closed the GLOCs; the United States froze CSF.
The relationship cratered, but both countries walked back from the precipice. The United States issued an apology for Salala in summer 2012 and Pakistan reopened the GLOCs. Money began flowing once again. As part of the effort to rebuild the relationship, the Department of Defense worked hard to streamline the reimbursement process. These efforts included the creation of standard categories of expenditures (such as food, water, fuel, and ammunition) expended in support of U.S. military efforts. At the same time, however, Congress prohibited reimbursements for the roughly seven-month period when the GLOCs were closed and mandated that future CSF was contingent on Pakistan keeping the GLOCs open. Congress also legislated that Pakistan could not receive CSF unless the secretary of defense certified that security was being maintained along the GLOCs, and that Pakistan was making demonstrable efforts both against al Qaeda and other militant groups and to counter the threat of improvised explosive devices (IEDs) in Afghanistan. These provisions were updated in fiscal year 2014 to include cooperating with U.S. counterterrorism efforts against the Haqqani network and other militant groups like Lashkar-e-Taiba, and not supporting terrorist activities against the United States or coalition forces in Afghanistan. The secretary of defense, in coordination with the secretary of state, may waive these restrictions if it is in the U.S. national security interest to do so. No secretary of defense has ever certified. Instead, multiple secretaries waived certification on national security grounds.
Continued below
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