Is Talibanization of Pakistan in Indian Interests?

[ajtr]

NightWatch

For the Night of 21 July 2010​

Pakistan: Prime Minister Gilani said it is important that NATO and Pakistani forces increase cooperation and the sharing of information for the joint monitoring of the Pakistan-Afghanistan border, The Associated Press reported 21 July. Gilani, while talking with NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen, sought NATO's assistance in improving a road network throughout Pakistan to provide supplies to NATO-led International Security Assistance Force troops and welcomed a proposal for the signing of a framework agreement between Pakistan and NATO.

Comment: The significance of the NATO discussion and US Secretary Clinton's recent visit are that they represent another "tilt" towards Pakistan on security matters for the third time since 1971. In this respect, the Obama administration is following the path of the Nixon administration, although circumstances have changed. Pakistan is receiving US tax dollars as if it were a state of the United States, but the results are pathetic.

There might not be a practical alternative, but prudence commends a clear understanding of how little the US tax dollars have purchased in Pakistan.

The US is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result. Neither military nor elected Pakistani governments have delivered bin Laden, Zawahiri or Mullah Omar. Quite the contrary. Coincident with increased US engagement, Pakistan has become less stable, manifest in the formation of the Pakistani Taliban, in addition to the failure to kill or capture the al Qaida leaders or the Afghan Taliban leaders. All the drone killings of lesser luminaries do not signify, by comparison.

President Zardari and Prime Minister Gilani repeat the same refrains that Musharraf uttered when he held both of their jobs: "there is no proof"; "share your proof"; "the men are not in Pakistan."

Pakistanis have been repeating these refrains for nearly ten years, regardless of a severe deterioration in Pakistan's internal security and a worsening of the Allied position in Afghanistan. Still, the repetition has produced a steady increase in US assistance to Pakistan, indicating the tactic works for Pakistan, not for the US, NATO or Afghanistan.

Since the rise of the Taliban in the mid-1990's, with Pakistani intelligence assistance, it has been clear that Pakistani interests in Afghanistan and South Asia are not congruent with American interests. This ought to be obvious after the past ten years. That is the only explanation, for example, for Mullah Omar's ability to operate with impunity from Quetta or Karachi, as he sees fit, against US forces in Afghanistan.

Pakistan has become an agent of instability and proliferation and a state sponsor of terror since about the mid-1990s. The US continues to reward bad, if not incompetent, Pakistani behavior. There might be no practical alternatives, but any notion that this policy is working by any measure of merit - such as improving security conditions in Afghanistan -- needs to be dispelled. This is a study in democracy.

Question for feedback: Does the US aid package exceed Pakistan's income tax receipts?

 

[nitesh]

To singh and ajtr:

What is the difference between pakistan's creation time and now talibunnies. Do you really expect to create an Islamic state not be Islamist? The whole concept of a state at the time of creation is negative "They are not Indians". Nothing positive can come out from these useless bunch. We are facing those same idiots from the day of our independence although may be with different names. The only benefit of this talibunnisation will be that they will concentrate on the world not only India. And those nukes which are solely pointed towards us will be pointed towards every one hint: towards godless China and the ultimate villain USA and Israel. All in all less number of nukes towards us that many less to manage. And we need to to waste time in diplomacy or any other thing. Just shoot if anything moves towards us. Don't allow any animal to enter (if any one survives after they kill among themselves). So I support there journey towards there true destiny.

 

[Mohan]

Yes talibanisation of Pakistan is in Indian interests. But there should be more than two or more groups who like to take control of it who ever wins Pakistan will contest for Afghanistan. Do the thing what china is doing to us fight Pakistan to the last Afghani. I say build the wall the way Israelis have built on the western side and watch on the Nepal and Bangladesh side. To be respected and feared you should carry both carrot and stick which our govt or babus are not able to comprehend the simple fact.

 

[ajtr]

To singh and ajtr:

What is the difference between pakistan's creation time and now talibunnies. Do you really expect to create an Islamic state not be Islamist? The whole concept of a state at the time of creation is negative "They are not Indians". Nothing positive can come out from these useless bunch. We are facing those same idiots from the day of our independence although may be with different names. The only benefit of this talibunnisation will be that they will concentrate on the world not only India. And those nukes which are solely pointed towards us will be pointed towards every one hint: towards godless China and the ultimate villain USA and Israel. All in all less number of nukes towards us that many less to manage. And we need to to waste time in diplomacy or any other thing. Just shoot if anything moves towards us. Don't allow any animal to enter (if any one survives after they kill among themselves). So I support there journey towards there true destiny.

Simple answer are we able to seal the borders for past 60 years?With every terror effects all over world countries tightens rules for Pakistanis entry but in india opposite happens with bleeding hearts in india shouting for open borders.Even though there will be less nukes pointed towards india but remember one thing it will be india which will be taken down first as always as our history teaches us.Its easy to take down india then usa or china.Its in india where there are bleeding hearts for pakistanis; not in china or usa.It is india whose internal security is weak and political class is direction less and bickering at each other not in usa or china.Its india which makes easy target than usa or china.

Added later: It would be advisable for india to fight them at their on soil rather than waiting for them to come to india soil and then fight defensive battle over the dad bodies of indian civilians on indian soil.

 

[Singh]

for a better understanding i would like to understand how severely was Iran effected when the taliban were ruling a'stan? i know then they had amassed their armed forces on their borders for a war which eventually did not happen post the intervention by pakistan (what a huge favor the iranians would have done on the americans if the war would have taken place, but then clinton's america would have then supported the taliban ) and there was a huge support given to the northern alliance.

1. The afghan areas bordering Iran are non-pashtun dominated edit they are fencing the area.
2. Iran now has one of the world's highest per capita population of drug users and unemployment is rampant
3. Sistan-o-Balochistan is a war zone
4. Iranians are racist and openly discriminate against Afghan refugees.
5. Iran's economic and financial situation is messy and there is rationing of essential commodities.
EDIT
6. Iran is a security state and has a smallish population, not similar to Pakistan - Afghanistan situation

Paaji,
i doubt we could do much incase the pakistan army influenced by the isi were to decide that it was time for religious heads to head the government the way it happens in iran, (the way i see this happening will be by way of mass street protests backed by the isi eventually leading to a revolution of sorts) and then have a name sake democracy much like today but by doing that they would have scuttled a lot of pressure off their shoulders. let us not forget soon there will come a leadership in their armed forces which has a bigger leaning towards their religion than we have ever had and let alone india, i doubt even the US would be of any use.
our political leadership seriously does need to wake up.

The source of power of the Iranian Mullahs is the IRGC not Iranian Army. They are wary of handing over control to a professional military.
Ayub Khan, ZA Bhutto, Zia, Musharraf all used mullahs to strengthen their grip. On their own Mullahs are pawns in the hands of the establishment. Very rarily the Mullahs have decided to strike out on their own. Both establishment-mullah re-inforce each other. However, over the coming decade things can change as more and more people growing up in the Zia era are entering the establishment.

 

[ajtr]

Yes talibanisation of Pakistan is in Indian interests. But there should be more than two or more groups who like to take control of it who ever wins Pakistan will contest for Afghanistan. Do the thing what china is doing to us fight Pakistan to the last Afghani. I say build the wall the way Israelis have built on the western side and watch on the Nepal and Bangladesh side. To be respected and feared you should carry both carrot and stick which our govt or babus are not able to comprehend the simple fact.

First thing valleys and passes of kashmir and bangladesh/nepal cant be walled.If wall would've been the solution then no fort in the history would have been taken down.no amount of carrots will work coz they see it as their entitlement from there past subjects.Only thing will work is stick.

 

[Singh]

To singh and ajtr:

What is the difference between pakistan's creation time and now talibunnies. Do you really expect to create an Islamic state not be Islamist? The whole concept of a state at the time of creation is negative "They are not Indians". Nothing positive can come out from these useless bunch. We are facing those same idiots from the day of our independence although may be with different names.

This based on the assumption that indeed Pakistan was created on the basis of religion but we know for a fact that the creation of Pakistan was done to ensure the Muslim elite doesn't lose its powers to democracy and meritocracy. Pakistan was a gift for the loyalty of the Muslim elites to the crown.

The only benefit of this talibunnisation will be that they will concentrate on the world not only India. And those nukes which are solely pointed towards us will be pointed towards every one hint: towards godless China and the ultimate villain USA and Israel. All in all less number of nukes towards us that many less to manage. And we need to to waste time in diplomacy or any other thing. Just shoot if anything moves towards us. Don't allow any animal to enter (if any one survives after they kill among themselves). So I support there journey towards there true destiny.

Very bold assumptions.
I believe Talibanized Pakistan's number 1 enemy will be India for 2 reasons :
1. India is an existential threat to them by way of us controlling their waters.
2. Most of our conventional armed forces are aimed at Pakistan.

US is friends with Saudis who wield tremendous influence.
China has no moral issues with terrorists, Chinese are already talking with Taliban in Astan btw.

 

[ajtr]

Another complete Hogwash to fool the world.Are there any moderates left in pakistan and reporter talks about moderate majority.....

Engaging Pakistan's moderate majority​

BY AMIL KHAN, JULY 22, 2010 Thursday, July 22, 2010 - 10:30 AM Share

Only a few miles away from the modern concrete villas and wide roads of Islamabad, lies the shrine of Golra Sherif. Muslims from all over Pakistan visit this spot to ask the buried saints to plead their case in front of God. Poor farmers ask for their Murree Whiskey-flavoured indiscretions to be overlooked. Young female graduates pray for a job. A handful of senior civil servants read the Quran by a graveside hoping God will understand why they keep a mistress. You might even find a feudal landlord or two proving his piety with a high-profile visit.

Political leaders mean little in the everyday lives of 180 million people who, for the most part, live in rural areas and have little to no contact with the government. What counts past the city limits of the large towns are the whims of feudal lords and the spiritual sanctuary provided by Pakistan's traditional religious infrastructure of shrines, soup kitchens and religious schools.

These shrines and the ceremonies that revolve around them are Islam for the vast majority of people in Pakistan, and this is the Islam that suicide bombers declared war on when they killed around 40 worshippers at Pakistan's most prominent religious shrine on July 1. Even as the Data Darbar complex in the heart of Lahore is being cleared of rubble, tensions that have been building for years between the two main Sunni traditions in Pakistan are about to turn combustible.

Pakistan's religious landscape is as varied as the ethnic mix that makes up the population. For the vast majority of Pakistanis, Islam is a religion of live and let live that calls on political leaders to ensure social justice and gives the lay follower plenty of opportunity to exercise and express his or her spirituality thorough celebrations and devotion to saints. However, extremism also has a long history in the area that is now Pakistan. The idea of enforcing Islamic observance through the power of the state gained traction in the subcontinent through Sayed Ahmad, a former student of religion from northern India who travelled to Pashtun lands and roused the tribes to fight in the name of Islam against non-Muslim influence over the crumbling Mughal Empire. Ahmad was a near contemporary of Mohammad ibn Abdul Wahhab, the spiritual founder of the strict interpretation of Islam practised in Saudi Arabia known as Salafism. Al-Qaeda also sees itself as a Salafi organisation.

Broadly speaking, the Sunni majority comprises of two main groupings -- Deobandis and Barelvis. Most Pakistani Muslims might not identify themselves as either. But in recent years, as the influence of extremist ideas has grown, the Barelvis, who often refer to themselves as Sufis, have become the defacto defenders of traditional Islamic practice. Meanwhile, Deobandis, who are ideologically close to the Salafis of the Middle East, are rooted in strict literal observance and are generally sympathetic to those, including the Taliban, who seek to impose religious observation on the masses. The two strands together exercise a massive influence over religious political dialogue in Pakistan.

Barelvis and more moderate Deobandis have come to represent Pakistan's mainstream. But the center ground is embattled. Militants, whether they are Taliban, the anti-Shia Sipah-e-Sahaba Pakistan or the traditionally Kashmir-focused Lashkar-e-Taiba, are gaining ground by convincing growing numbers of Pakistanis that the ultimate expression of Islam is to follow an unforgiving code that actively hates other religious traditions and condones killing innocent people to make a point.

In October last year, I arrived in Pakistan to work on a project called Karvaan-e-Amn, or Caravan of Peace, which is run by a British Muslim organization called Radical Middle Way (RMW). The aim of the initiative is to bring mainstream Islamic voices to Pakistanis through radio, print, television and the Internet to challenge extremists' carefully cultivated image as the epitome of Islamic practice.

What I found was a community embattled physically as well as ideologically. Sarfraz Naimi, a Barelvi leader, had been killed by a suicide bomber not long after declaring suicide bombing religiously forbidden. At around the same time, the Taliban had started bombing shrines in the former North West Frontier Province, now known as Khyber-Pukhtunkhwa.

In my first few weeks on the project, I helped organize a series of conferences that brought together religious leaders from all over Pakistan and introduced them to high-profile Islamic leaders from abroad. The idea was for the meetings to provide a morale boost to people who were feeling increasingly isolated and to allow them to demonstrate to their followers that they indeed were the majority in the wider Muslim community.

Pakistan's freewheeling media is quick to blame terrorism on shadowy foreign organizations, but the leaders who spoke at the conferences were not interested in passing the buck.

"Of all the terrorist attacks carried out so far, no American culprit has been caught, no one from Britain and no Israeli. All those who have been apprehended belong here. And with great sorrow, I say that they have been men with beards (religious men)," said one speaker, who holds a high-profile position within Pakistan's religious education establishment.

Many of the other delegates thought extremists were much better organised than them and lamented the fact it had taken so long for their leaders to meet together.

One of Pakistan's highest-ranking religious officials said of extremists; "In religious garb they organised hatred into a force. Now it is an organised force. These people are in society... The attacks on army installations were done by their followers who are in the army."

Most of the venerable men in beards and turbans thought they had made a mistake staying out of politics. "The problem is that Sufis left the political arena. We handed power over to the feudals and tyrants," said one. They all agreed that they needed to adapt to their new reality. They needed to organise, to become more assertive and to become relevant to political discussion. They chaffed at being seen to be pro-government, and therefore pro-West. They were keen to demonstrate that killing civilians was no way to express anger or to deal with differences in opinion.

But an influential minority wanted to go further. In the conferences, people made references about "the need for strength," some referred to the need to "answer the Taliban." In a madrassa in the rural hinterland of Punjab, an elderly former Barelvi leader with still considerable influence within the community's nationwide network said Barelvis should arm and organise a militia to take on the Taliban. "Our ideology is lying in its grave. And before long, if we do nothing, our lifeless bodies will be joining it," he said in Punjabi.

Analysts and former government officials I spoke to in Islamabad said armed conflict between the Barelvis and Deobandis would mean death and destruction on a scale that would make Pakistan's present violence pale in comparison.

The attack on Data Darbar makes that scenario frighteningly likely. In Iraq, provoking sectarian warfare was a central part of al-Qaeda's strategy. Although no one has officially claimed responsibility for the attack in Lahore, many analysts suspect Osama bin Laden's organization is attempting to pitch Pakistani Sunnis against each other as well as against other religious groups, and then profit from the bloodbath.

A leading Barelvi figure told me relations between his group and Deobandis were deteriorating. "Things are getting hot. We asked them to condemn the Taliban but they won't. They are distributing leaflets calling for the killing of those who visit shrines... If someone doesn't take action to calm things, we will be seeing violence."

The government is the obvious "someone," but politics makes democratically elected leaders unwilling to upset influential groups. After the bombings, a Deobandi gathering that included a former leading member of the sectarian militant group Lashkar-e-Jhangvi issued a statement threatening to make the provincial Punjab government pay in the polls if it acted against their interests.

The Barelvis for their part have called on officials to resign for their perceived support of banned Deobandi groups and are organizing protests in Lahore and Islamabad.

As Deobandis and Barelvis face off, a relatively peaceful June in Pakistan looks more likely to have been a brief respite rather than the portent of peace that everyone hoped. The smaller attacks, which hardly ever make the news, have started again. On July 15, a bomb in Khyber-Pukhtunkhwa destroyed a hundred year old shrine.

For decades internal and external actors have been exploiting religious fervor in Pakistan for political gain. That feeling has morphed, evolved, and developed a life of its own. The future of Pakistan will be decided by the outlook adopted by its people. And as of yet, that outlook is still being formed. Right now, despite the best efforts of extremists, the majority of Pakistanis see the core principles of their faith revolving around peaceful coexistence, social justice and community service. If the public sees Barelvis and Deobandi leaders marching their communities to war, the groups will threaten their own legitimacy. On the other hand, if extremists succeed in redefining what is considered "Islamic" and convincing ordinary Pakistanis that differing views of religion are worth fighting and killing over, the consequences will be devastating for Pakistan, and disastrous for the world.

It is not too late to engage with Pakistanis instead of leaving the field open for extremists. But that does mean developing the willingness and understanding to navigate Pakistan's religious environment.

Amil Khan works in Pakistan for Radical Middle Way and writes on issues connected to terrorism and extremism as Londonstani on the Center for New American Security's blog Abu Muqawama.

 

[Mohan]

I did not mean that the terrorist activity will come to end but will stop most of it provided there is vigil (i know you would say they will blast it) and the great wall of china was built on valleys and peaks too correct me if i am wrong. by building it you are making it even more difficult for them and cost,men, material wise not feasible. Carrots are only for Bangladesh and Nepal.

 

[Yusuf]

If the eventuality of Pak getting Talibed is for the world to make sure that their are at least two competing forces. Let them fight each other for the control and make sure no one gets more powerful than the other. When one gets powerful,it will mean that that group will then look to expand its sphere. So do what happened in Astan. Norther Alliance and Talibs. Only make sure that a Norther Alliance never becomes weak at any point.

 

[ajtr]

^^ like egging on the people west of indus to fight people east of indus. and clamping down the Radcliff line.

 

[ajtr]

Pakistani Taliban widen jihad ​

By Arif Jamal

The local chapter of Pakistan's Jamaat-i-Islami (JI) Islamist political party held a rally on April 19 in the historic Kissa Khwani Bazaar of Peshawar to protest the extremely low gas pressure and rolling blackouts that affect Peshawar residents up to 10 hours per day.

As leaders announced the end of the rally and protesters started to leave, a 14-year old suicide bomber detonated his suicide vest, killing 23 persons and injuring 50 others. The bomber successfully targeted local JI leaders and police officers - among the dead were JI Peshawar vice amir Haji Dost Mohammad and deputy superintendent of police Gulfat Hussain.

Due to the fact that Hussain was a Shi'ite Muslim, it was initially thought the bomber had specifically targeted him. However, all


other evidence suggested the real targets of the bomber were the JI leaders. Had it been by chance or mistake, they would not have continued to target more JI leaders later on. In order to downplay its differences with the Taliban and other jihadi groups, JI tried to blame the Americans for the bombing, with JI leader Hafiz Hashmat accusing private security firm Blackwater (Xe Services LLC) for the attack.

The suicide bombing of the JI rally was an attempt to widen the war that the Pakistani Taliban are fighting against the state of Pakistan. Although the bombing was not the only attack on JI leaders in recent months, it was the biggest, and such targeted attacks have continued. On June 16, the Taliban in Hangu assassinated JI leader Fida Saadi, a provincial executive council member. Soon afterwards they killed JI leader Haji Mohammad Khan and kidnapped his son in Darra Adamkhel on June 23.

The aim of the Pakistani Taliban is to establish an Islamic caliphate, one excluding the participation of all other Islamist groups. When the Afghan mujahideen found Kabul in sight after the fall of Dr Mohammad Najibullah's regime in the early 1990s, they threw themselves at one another's throats. The ensuing civil war gave birth to the Taliban movement.

Recently, the Pakistani Taliban intensified their war on the Barelvi movement and Sufi Islam by bringing the conflict to Punjab. New fronts were opened against the JI with the April 19 suicide bombing in Peshawar and against the Ahmadi community with a suicide bombing in Lahore on May 28.

The enmity between the JI and different parts of the Pakistani Taliban is both ideological and political. Although both JI and the Deobandi groups among the Pakistani Taliban follow the Hanafi school of jurisprudence, JI places less stress on ritual and more on political Islam. The Deobandis abhor the JI leaders (some of whom wear Western dress) and accuse them of having a lust for political power. [1]

However, the real existential threat to the JI comes from the Tehrik-i-Nifaz-i-Shariat Mohammadi (TNSM), led by Maulana Sufi Mohammad and his son-in-law Maulana Fazlullah. They lead the Pakistani Taliban in the Malakand Division and the Swat Valley.

Maulana Sufi Mohammad was a local leader of the JI until the early 1980s, when he developed differences with the party. In his desperation to grab political power, Sufi Mohammad started opposing the JI's policy of attaining power through elections.

He argued that an Islamic state could not be established through elections because the majority of people never vote in favor of Islamist parties. He started believing that the only way to establish an Islamic state was to follow the jihad philosophy of Maulana Maududi (1903-1979), the late founder of the Jamaat-i-Islami. Sufi Mohammad accused the JI leaders of deviating from Maududi's example. [2]

The real, personalized enmity between the two started after the US-led invasion of Afghanistan in October 2001. Most Islamist and jihadi groups started holding public rallies across Pakistan in favor of the Afghan Taliban. JI was in the forefront of these demonstrations, threatening that they would cross into Afghanistan to fight the Americans if US forces landed there.

However, only Sufi Mohammad led thousands of his followers into Afghanistan. Unprepared as they were, most of them died in US air strikes. Sufi Mohammad retreated with his decimated militia to Pakistan, where he accused the JI of luring him and his fighters into Afghanistan to weaken or eliminate them. Sufi Mohammad never forgave the JI and started preparing his revenge. In interviews the author conducted in 2004-2005, several TNSM commanders portrayed JI as a bigger threat than the Americans. [3]

It is difficult to say which group of the Pakistani Taliban has an interest in attacking the JI at this time. It is a safe bet, however, to believe that the followers of Sufi Mohammad want to take their long-delayed revenge. In the intense sectarian atmosphere, other groups would happily follow the lead.

Pakistan seems to be entering a period similar to that which Afghanistan went through between the fall of Najibullah and the advent of the Taliban in the 1990s, when different factions of the mujahideen fought to eliminate their rivals.

As the Pakistani Taliban spread their jihad to rival Islamist groups, the possibility of other Islamist militias being drawn into a civil war between extremist groups is looking more and more probable. If this happens, it will be bloodier than the mujahideen battles in the 1990s in Afghanistan, with an unimaginable international impact.

 

[anoop_mig25]

Is Talibanization of Pakistan in Indian Interests?


In last few months there is increased strategic-discourse on the Af-Pak conundrum given Obama administration's determination to roll-out all overt military presence from Afghanistan. Former US Ambassador's article in Indian media called for partition of Afghanistan giving de facto control of Sothern-Afghanistan to Pakistani supported Haqquani (the good Taliban) group, while retaining the Northern-Afghanistan under the current Karzai administration with western help. This strategy also calls for focused air cross-border campaign against the Taliban/AQ networks in Sothern-Afghanistan extending into Pakistani NWFP. This strategy essentially recognizes the ideological and organizational integration of Afghani-Taliban with Pakistani intelligence and armed forces organizations, given that the decision on who should run Southern-Afghanistan is entrusted with Pakistan Army and ISI.

A further extrapolation of this reality brings us to the subject of this article – Talibanization of Pakistan. Given the real or perceived victories against the world super power USSR and the sole power USA by a Islamic Mercenary force under a Jihadi call, it is highly likely that other associated parties also see this as a potent strategy to extend their vested interests. Given their ideological, organizational, and logistical integration with Taliban and AQ forces, the most-religious sections of Pakistani Armed Forces and ISI might like to adopt this strategy and emulate Taliban success within and without Pakistan. These sections of Pakistani establishment will find supporting space, structures, and logistics in the newly created Pashtunistan area blurring the political and sovereign borders of erstwhile Pakistan and Afghanistan.

Once this initiative gains traction it will not take more than 2-3 years for the entire Pakistan nation to come under Taliban control, given the social, religious and logistical support system created for these very elements in Pakistan for the past three decades by various civil and military administrations. There might be sporadic, half-hearted, and non-military resistance from the RAPE (Rich Anglicized Pakistani Elite) to Taliban advancement into Pakistan heart lands but it might not change the direction or the timeline of Pakistan's Talibanization program once key sections of Pakistan Army make their switch. The USA (and others) may resist the transformation of Pakistani crown jewels (nuclear arsenal) into Wahhabi nuclear assets; but there is very little chance of Pakistan losing these assets given the very unlikely invasion by USA (in search of WMD) or its allies.

In summary a new Islamic Talibani state of Pakistan (Land of Pure) is expected to be created in Indian sub-continent sometime between 2012 and 2015, essentially due to the world's sole super power's (USA) failed strategic vision and corrupt military strategy. By virtue of being the civilizational, political, geographical pivot of this region, India has paid the highest price for this western-perfidy in the name of geopolitics. In the past sixty years, India paid dearly for this western (especially UK and USA) misadventure with millions of lives (partition of India), countless terrorist attacks, and suppressed economic prosperity (anywhere between 2-5% of GDP growth).

So the big question for Indian strategic community is – Is Talibanization of Pakistan in Indian Interests? How these developments of geopolitical dimensions in its extended region influence its internal and external policy? Let us analyze -

Geopolitics
Since its formulation, Pakistan relied heavily on external powers to sustain its [sic] identity, and achieve a psychological parity with its larger neighbor India. In its efforts Pakistan was supported politically, technologically, militarily, and economically by its 3.5 friends, namely USA, KSA, PRC as full partners and UK and JPN as partial partners. It is a well-known and well documented fact how each one of these patrons helped shape the Af-Pak region to achieve the current state of religious-fanaticism, social-militarization, lack of human-dignity, and mercenary-jihadism. These external powers have been sustaining Pakistan to undermine the other regional and global (former) powers namely Russia, Iran, and India by funding it more than US$10-20B every year on one or other account.

What would be the geopolitical value-proposition of Af-Pak region in the advent of Islamic Talibani state of Pakistan (ITP)? The new ITP will continue to offer its services to external players for monetary and military goodies but will lose its politico-ideological connection with certain patrons. Given USA's continued presence and influence in Northern-Afghanistan and improved strategic-partnership with India, ITP may lose its geopolitical value to USA. ITP's relationship with UK and JPN are highly correlated with its alignment with USA and thus will receive similar treatment. In such a scenario the financial support Pakistan received in the past two decades will not continue into the future. PRC might be tempted to support ITP to counter Indian raise in the short-term but any PRC-ITP relationship will lose its potential as Indo-PRC trade relationship dwarfs any geopolitical gains PRC might achieve thru ITP. In addition to that ITP's jihadi vigor might create new internal-dynamics in PRC's Xinjiang province.

Thus the geopolitical value proposition of ITP will diminish as this region takes an overtly religious-mercenary dimension bringing half-century long shadow over Indian interests.

Economy
If Taliban rule of Afghanistan is any indicator, ITP will fail to nurture key policy and governance structures that are instrumental in achieving economic prosperity in modern sense. It is highly likely that the present feudal structures of Pakistan will evolve into warlord-like structures accumulating national wealth into very few pockets. Majority of the nation will remain poor and inefficient. ITP may be able to sell some of its services to potential geopolitical customers but will fail to become a reckoning force economically.

The present near-zero trade partnership between India and Pakistan turns out to be a boon in disguise for India as there will be zero impact on Indian economy due to ITP's transformation.

Nuclear War
This is a well debated issue. At present Pakistan possesses anywhere between 70-90 nuclear warheads and the means (missiles or aircraft) to deliver them. Pakistan's stated nuclear policy is to use WMD in the event of a significant loss of territory or military capability; without defining what that significance level is.

Irrespective of its formulation, ITP will continue to have this capability as it will be near impossible to sweep of a nation of ITP's size and population. A future ITP will also would maintain the same nuclear posture in order to maintain the ambiguity and keep the pressure on its foes, mainly India. Since the past and current administrations of Pakistan behaved no differently than a hypothetical Taliban nation; a fanatical religious world-view, terrorism as state-policy, and suppression of religious minorities there will be little change in terms of the nuclear posture from a future ITP with regards to India.

As far as India is concerned, formation of ITP would remove the veil of non-state actors from the nuclear equation. Any nuclear attack (dirty or pure) will be viewed as an act of war and will invoke a existential response from India. In fact ITP would have lesser incentive to go nuclear against India than nuclear-blackmailing Iran, or Israel or West or even KSA to gain enhanced political and economic incentives and establish itself as the undisputed leader of Islamic-Ummah.

Refugee Issue
There is a very high probability of a refugee crisis developing in western Indian borders during late transformation phase of ITP. It is highly probable that the refugee population is of two types – The RAPE class and religious minorities. Based on past behavioral patterns, the RAPE class will receive overwhelming support from Indian WKK-brigade (Wagha Kandle Kissers) wile the religious minorities will be seen as an economic and social burden on India by the Indian ruling class.

Based on Bangladesh freedom movement and Talibanization of Afghanistan experiences, It is safe to estimate that at least 15-20 million refugees will try to cross into India thru its western borders. These people will receive significant opposition and harassment from bordering Indian states Gujarat, Rajastan, Punjab, and Haryana, whereas there is fair chance that Kashmir valley separatists welcome some of these refuges on religious grounds, in a tactical move to future maneuvers. India's internal political fissures will be exploited by WKKs in all the border states to enhance their vested interests.

It is in the best interests of India to seal off Indian borders and contain any future refugee situation to af-pak region. One strategy is to support internal independence movements so the refugees see little need to move to India. Balochistan and Sindh regions offer great value in this regard, provided India offers generous financial and water resources under UN auspices. An alternative, yet risky, strategy would be for India to use UN to occupy a small area within ITP and declare it as a demilitarized zone (DMZ) for refugees.

In all the possibility an impending refugee crisis will be a game changer vis-à-vis India. It is in India's best interests that the Indian defense and political leadership prepares a well-rounded strategy to contain and support ITP refugee flow to serve its agenda.

Terrorism
The root of terrorism emanating from Pakistan lies in Pakistan's identity crisis and jealousy. Pakistan created and supported various terror outfits in its borders to hurt India in the past two decades. The advent of ITP will not change the ground situation in any way. ITP will become an overt terror state not only in Indian eyes but also for the international community. This will help India in removing the excuse of "non-state actors" and allow it to take suitable military action.

A possible side effect of the transformation of ITP can impact the Kashmir valley in Jammu and Kashmir. The Kashmir separatists might get emboldened by the perceived [sic] Islamic victory across the border might demand either unification with ITP or implementation of Sharia in the valley. A logical approach to this issue would be to repeal Article 370, which gives special status to the state of Jammu & Kashmir, as the whole JK issue becomes meaningless with the formation of ITP.

At national level, talibanization of Pakistan will open new opportunities for India. Creation of ITP will convince the Indian public on the dangers of Islamic fundamentalism once and for all. This will enable the Government of India to develop suitable anti-terror laws and civic infrastructure such as special intelligence services, courts, and paramilitary forces. If done properly such an initiative will have many positive side effects such as lower crime rate, better international credit rating etc.,

Role of Religion
People born and die, whereas the religion lives on and evolves/transforms. At least two generations of Afghans lived thru the current geopolitical game with no hope in the horizon. Similarly India has seen three generations of Pakistanis born and died in the past 60 years, but peaceful-coexistence is still a mirage in Indian subcontinent. Pakistani society's hatred and jealousy for any/every Indian value has increased many fold in the same period. Indian Muslims must make note of this in evolving their faith to suite the modern values of religious pluralism, respect for women's-rights, and focus on scientific reasoning in life.

Indian Muslims received their faith from the desert lands of west-Asia. It is time for Indian Muslim community to return the favor to Islamic-Ummah by offering an alternative perspective on faith, life, and environment where Islamic-Ummah can be at peace with itself and others. Indiam Muslims should demand a seat at Ummah's high-table where they can explain their brothers and sisters the difference between religion and once history, culture and heritage and that blind adherence to foreign culture, history and heritage removes the individual from their environment destroying the very spiritualism that religion claims to improve.

Conclusion
In summary the overall political, military, and terror posture of Pakistan will not change in the event of overt talibanization of Pakistani society. On the other hand it will open up new opportunities for Indian political leadership to get out of the geopolitical shackles of Pakistan and continue with its national resurgence. This development also provides a rare opportunity for Indian Muslims to lead the world Muslim community by balancing between religion and local culture/heritage.

Above table summarizes various influence factors, their weightages and threat probabilities with respect to current state of Pakistan and a possible ITP. As we can see the overall threat to Indian national interests is reduced by nearly 15%, which is equal to complete disappearance of Pakistani terrorism.

Now it is up to Indian political leadership to plan ahead and come up with suitable strategies to benefit from this once in a millennium opportunity. Such a vision would require clarity of national purpose, self-confidence, and efficient use of national resources. The world community is observing India with keen interest and lots of hope.

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i do not whether this author has seen any previous or current general of Pakistan(i mean pic) if u notice none of them support or rather say have/had supported beard like mullahs support. if ask any typical mullah he will say a beard is must for an(obi dent) Muslim

fist religion is tool has been successfully used by rulers to rule the world . no one is exception . it happen in EUROPE/CHINA/INDIA-SUBCONTINENT (except may be america)

various fraction were fighting with each other to capture Afghanistan after the withdraw of soviets

if this in-fightings would have prolonged american would have inter vined and would have established a government supportive of american interest. (Pakistan Saudis did n`t wanted this to happen)

so they provided Taliban with better weapon/tranning so that they could capture power before america led world could intervene

once Taliban captured Afghanistan through blood bath they where recognized by 3 country only Pakistan, Saudi Ariba ,(third i do not know? )

Pakistan establishment created Taliban to kill 2 birds with one stone
1>have government that is supporter of Pakistan (army)
2>to shift its solider from Pakistan wester border to eastern border



Pakistani generals aren't fool to allow Taliban `s to over-capture Pakistan and ruled them . they know how stupid this people and what hell they can create on earth(without nukes) , so people should stop worrying that one day Pakistan would be captured by Taliban.

Pakistan elites consisting of Pakistan establishment plus army would never allow this and they know how to tame this DOGS

Pakistan retained Taliban because Afghanistan can be use it to train non-state actors to carry out destructive activities in India , nobody would pays attention to Afghanistan.

hence India is worried now that once this activity would resumed if Pakistan favored government is installed as again world is not going to pay attention to whats happening in Afghanistan after US pulls out

even if Pakistan is over-throned by Taliban i highly doubt they would rage straight face war against India with nukes. because this toys require know-how before using them and Taliban preciously lacks it.they would continue with their best option i.e guerrilla war-fare

 

[nitesh]

Simple answer are we able to seal the borders for past 60 years?With every terror effects all over world countries tightens rules for Pakistanis entry but in india opposite happens with bleeding hearts in india shouting for open borders.Even though there will be less nukes pointed towards india but remember one thing it will be india which will be taken down first as always as our history teaches us.Its easy to take down india then usa or china.Its in india where there are bleeding hearts for pakistanis; not in china or usa.It is india whose internal security is weak and political class is direction less and bickering at each other not in usa or china.Its india which makes easy target than usa or china.

Added later: It would be advisable for india to fight them at their on soil rather than waiting for them to come to india soil and then fight defensive battle over the dad bodies of indian civilians on indian soil.

Ajtr, what are you saying is more of a PoV then fact, you assume that india will be taken down first. It was in 1998 when we made pakistani nukes to come out in open and in one decade time those nukes are close to becoming world problem. Once they reach hands on talibunnies they will shoot it on every one that is much better situation to have

 

[nitesh]

This based on the assumption that indeed Pakistan was created on the basis of religion but we know for a fact that the creation of Pakistan was done to ensure the Muslim elite doesn't lose its powers to democracy and meritocracy. Pakistan was a gift for the loyalty of the Muslim elites to the crown.

Well I agree to it on some level

Very bold assumptions.
I believe Talibanized Pakistan's number 1 enemy will be India for 2 reasons :
1. India is an existential threat to them by way of us controlling their waters.
2. Most of our conventional armed forces are aimed at Pakistan.

Singh saar what is the current situation the uniformed jihadis have only one aim to destroy us. Whereas these guys will carry a global agenda. It's a good situation to be in.

US is friends with Saudis who wield tremendous influence.
China has no moral issues with terrorists, Chinese are already talking with Taliban in Astan btw.

This will not count now as they are fighting now. Chinese have to pay for uigher oppression

 

[johnee]

To singh and ajtr:

What is the difference between pakistan's creation time and now talibunnies. Do you really expect to create an Islamic state not be Islamist? The whole concept of a state at the time of creation is negative "They are not Indians". Nothing positive can come out from these useless bunch. We are facing those same idiots from the day of our independence although may be with different names. The only benefit of this talibunnisation will be that they will concentrate on the world not only India. And those nukes which are solely pointed towards us will be pointed towards every one hint: towards godless China and the ultimate villain USA and Israel. All in all less number of nukes towards us that many less to manage. And we need to to waste time in diplomacy or any other thing. Just shoot if anything moves towards us. Don't allow any animal to enter (if any one survives after they kill among themselves). So I support there journey towards there true destiny.

Great points, mate. Just want to add a few more...
#)As you already pointed out that once the talibans take over pakistan,their guns and nukes will be trained at all the kafirs and not just exclusively at indians. Right now, pakistan under PA, is the enemy of India and India alone. Its nukes, weapons and terrorism are exclusively aimed at India, everything else is side-effects. But if talibans take over, they will concentrate on many more countries, which means they might concentrate less time and effort in killing indians.

#)taliban was able to rule Astan because it was funded by PA which in turn was funded by US. But if taliban start to take over Pakistan, where will they get their funds from? One needs money to rule a country, simply religion is not enough. Right now, Pakistan can be given billions of aid money, but if talibans take over, howwill any country justify donating arms or aid to them?

#)spill over effect? What spill over effect will it cause in India and how long will it last? Compared to the present situation where ISI is actively trying to misguide indians against their own nation, taliban will be much easier to handle due to lack of sophistication in their modus operandi. Remember, taliban like groups succeed by utilizing the lack of law and order and huge sympathetic public. Both these conditions may not be met in most parts of India. So, taliban's threat to India is over-exaggerated.

#)taliban attracts the muslim population of pakistan because they talk of justice and sharia. But when taliban gets to power,merely implementing sharia wont be enough, they would have to provide food, water, roads and meet the basic expectations of the people. The easiest way to defeat an ideology is to keep it in throne for sometime.

From India's point of view(and that is the only thing I am concerned with), all the above points are beneficial.

 

[Singh]

Singh saar what is the current situation the uniformed jihadis have only one aim to destroy us. Whereas these guys will carry a global agenda. It's a good situation to be in.

Taliban doesn't plot global terrorist incidents nor has any global ambitions.

You are confusing Islamists with global agenda and uneducated tribals/dehatis interested in sub-nationalist quasi-religious agenda.

Afghan Taliban -> want Shariat in Afghanistan and they don't recognise Durand Line. Made up exclusively(top leadership) of Pashtuns.
Mehsud Taliban -> want to rule Waziristan. Rival tribals/lashkars/jirgas are dead.
Swati Taliban -> want Shariat and power in Swat. Have killed or driven out all the landlords.
Punjabi/Seraiki Taliban -> Splinter groups but all radical Sunni extremists. Details sketchy.

This will not count now as they are fighting now. Chinese have to pay for uigher oppression

Chinese Uighyars will be supported by Al-Qaeda, LeJ, HuJi, 313 brigade etc. not Taliban. Taliban will however allow AQ et al to base themselves in their areas.
Mullah Omar had nothing to do with 9/11 or AQ he merely gave shelter to Osama based on Pakhtunwali nor did Mullah Omar hijack IC-814, he merely helped his Terrorist baradereen to escape to their home in Pakistan.

PS: Faisal Shezhad case is the first time ever that a taliban group (TTP/Mehsud Taliban) targeted a foreign country.

 

[nitesh]

Taliban doesn't plot global terrorist incidents nor has any global ambitions.

You are confusing Islamists with global agenda and uneducated tribals/dehatis interested in sub-nationalist quasi-religious agenda.

Afghan Taliban -> want Shariat in Afghanistan and they don't recognise Durand Line. Made up exclusively(top leadership) of Pashtuns.
Mehsud Taliban -> want to rule Waziristan. Rival tribals/lashkars/jirgas are dead.
Swati Taliban -> want Shariat and power in Swat. Have killed or driven out all the landlords.
Punjabi/Seraiki Taliban -> Splinter groups but all radical Sunni extremists. Details sketchy.

This is the crux of problem calssic good talian vs bad taliban
the good one is who so ever agrees to fight only India and bad one who targets west.

Chinese Uighyars will be supported by Al-Qaeda, LeJ, HuJi, 313 brigade etc. not Taliban. Taliban will however allow AQ et al to base themselves in their areas.
Mullah Omar had nothing to do with 9/11 or AQ he merely gave shelter to Osama based on Pakhtunwali nor did Mullah Omar hijack IC-814, he merely helped his Terrorist baradereen to escape to their home in Pakistan.

What you are trying to convey here?

PS: Faisal Shezhad case is the first time ever that a taliban group (TTP/Mehsud Taliban) targeted a foreign country.

Well it can be siad like this is the first time they are caught

 

[Vinod2070]

Not sure if it will be good but it will be messy for sure. It is just waiting to happen anyway and we better be prepared for the day and deal with the aftermath.

There are plenty of Pakistanis who don't want this to happen but they are mere pawns in the game. The PA is Islamist Jihadist, ISI is terrorist and rogue, the politicians are corrupt and pathetic and closet Jihadis. Complete Talibanization OF IRP is just a matter of time.

 

[Illusive]

Firstly talibanization wouldn't be in the interest of pakistan itself . They will loose the support of US(which they gradually are) , neither would China support someone with radical fundamentals , this would mean that they wouldn't have anyone to back them with military supply , for India it would mean full support of US in kashmir matter which pakistan doesn't want at any cost . Btw they already are talibanized , only thing is they are hiding it behind the cloak of democracy .