Is Talibanization of Pakistan in Indian Interests?

Discussion in 'Pakistan' started by johnee, Jul 22, 2010.

  1. johnee

    johnee Elite Member Elite Member

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    Is Talibanization of Pakistan in Indian Interests?


    In last few months there is increased strategic-discourse on the Af-Pak conundrum given Obama administration’s determination to roll-out all overt military presence from Afghanistan. Former US Ambassador’s article in Indian media called for partition of Afghanistan giving de facto control of Sothern-Afghanistan to Pakistani supported Haqquani (the good Taliban) group, while retaining the Northern-Afghanistan under the current Karzai administration with western help. This strategy also calls for focused air cross-border campaign against the Taliban/AQ networks in Sothern-Afghanistan extending into Pakistani NWFP. This strategy essentially recognizes the ideological and organizational integration of Afghani-Taliban with Pakistani intelligence and armed forces organizations, given that the decision on who should run Southern-Afghanistan is entrusted with Pakistan Army and ISI.

    A further extrapolation of this reality brings us to the subject of this article – Talibanization of Pakistan. Given the real or perceived victories against the world super power USSR and the sole power USA by a Islamic Mercenary force under a Jihadi call, it is highly likely that other associated parties also see this as a potent strategy to extend their vested interests. Given their ideological, organizational, and logistical integration with Taliban and AQ forces, the most-religious sections of Pakistani Armed Forces and ISI might like to adopt this strategy and emulate Taliban success within and without Pakistan. These sections of Pakistani establishment will find supporting space, structures, and logistics in the newly created Pashtunistan area blurring the political and sovereign borders of erstwhile Pakistan and Afghanistan.

    Once this initiative gains traction it will not take more than 2-3 years for the entire Pakistan nation to come under Taliban control, given the social, religious and logistical support system created for these very elements in Pakistan for the past three decades by various civil and military administrations. There might be sporadic, half-hearted, and non-military resistance from the RAPE (Rich Anglicized Pakistani Elite) to Taliban advancement into Pakistan heart lands but it might not change the direction or the timeline of Pakistan’s Talibanization program once key sections of Pakistan Army make their switch. The USA (and others) may resist the transformation of Pakistani crown jewels (nuclear arsenal) into Wahhabi nuclear assets; but there is very little chance of Pakistan losing these assets given the very unlikely invasion by USA (in search of WMD) or its allies.

    In summary a new Islamic Talibani state of Pakistan (Land of Pure) is expected to be created in Indian sub-continent sometime between 2012 and 2015, essentially due to the world’s sole super power’s (USA) failed strategic vision and corrupt military strategy. By virtue of being the civilizational, political, geographical pivot of this region, India has paid the highest price for this western-perfidy in the name of geopolitics. In the past sixty years, India paid dearly for this western (especially UK and USA) misadventure with millions of lives (partition of India), countless terrorist attacks, and suppressed economic prosperity (anywhere between 2-5% of GDP growth).

    So the big question for Indian strategic community is – Is Talibanization of Pakistan in Indian Interests? How these developments of geopolitical dimensions in its extended region influence its internal and external policy? Let us analyze -

    Geopolitics
    Since its formulation, Pakistan relied heavily on external powers to sustain its [sic] identity, and achieve a psychological parity with its larger neighbor India. In its efforts Pakistan was supported politically, technologically, militarily, and economically by its 3.5 friends, namely USA, KSA, PRC as full partners and UK and JPN as partial partners. It is a well-known and well documented fact how each one of these patrons helped shape the Af-Pak region to achieve the current state of religious-fanaticism, social-militarization, lack of human-dignity, and mercenary-jihadism. These external powers have been sustaining Pakistan to undermine the other regional and global (former) powers namely Russia, Iran, and India by funding it more than US$10-20B every year on one or other account.

    What would be the geopolitical value-proposition of Af-Pak region in the advent of Islamic Talibani state of Pakistan (ITP)? The new ITP will continue to offer its services to external players for monetary and military goodies but will lose its politico-ideological connection with certain patrons. Given USA’s continued presence and influence in Northern-Afghanistan and improved strategic-partnership with India, ITP may lose its geopolitical value to USA. ITP’s relationship with UK and JPN are highly correlated with its alignment with USA and thus will receive similar treatment. In such a scenario the financial support Pakistan received in the past two decades will not continue into the future. PRC might be tempted to support ITP to counter Indian raise in the short-term but any PRC-ITP relationship will lose its potential as Indo-PRC trade relationship dwarfs any geopolitical gains PRC might achieve thru ITP. In addition to that ITP’s jihadi vigor might create new internal-dynamics in PRC’s Xinjiang province.

    Thus the geopolitical value proposition of ITP will diminish as this region takes an overtly religious-mercenary dimension bringing half-century long shadow over Indian interests.

    Economy
    If Taliban rule of Afghanistan is any indicator, ITP will fail to nurture key policy and governance structures that are instrumental in achieving economic prosperity in modern sense. It is highly likely that the present feudal structures of Pakistan will evolve into warlord-like structures accumulating national wealth into very few pockets. Majority of the nation will remain poor and inefficient. ITP may be able to sell some of its services to potential geopolitical customers but will fail to become a reckoning force economically.

    The present near-zero trade partnership between India and Pakistan turns out to be a boon in disguise for India as there will be zero impact on Indian economy due to ITP’s transformation.

    Nuclear War
    This is a well debated issue. At present Pakistan possesses anywhere between 70-90 nuclear warheads and the means (missiles or aircraft) to deliver them. Pakistan’s stated nuclear policy is to use WMD in the event of a significant loss of territory or military capability; without defining what that significance level is.

    Irrespective of its formulation, ITP will continue to have this capability as it will be near impossible to sweep of a nation of ITP’s size and population. A future ITP will also would maintain the same nuclear posture in order to maintain the ambiguity and keep the pressure on its foes, mainly India. Since the past and current administrations of Pakistan behaved no differently than a hypothetical Taliban nation; a fanatical religious world-view, terrorism as state-policy, and suppression of religious minorities there will be little change in terms of the nuclear posture from a future ITP with regards to India.

    As far as India is concerned, formation of ITP would remove the veil of non-state actors from the nuclear equation. Any nuclear attack (dirty or pure) will be viewed as an act of war and will invoke a existential response from India. In fact ITP would have lesser incentive to go nuclear against India than nuclear-blackmailing Iran, or Israel or West or even KSA to gain enhanced political and economic incentives and establish itself as the undisputed leader of Islamic-Ummah.

    Refugee Issue
    There is a very high probability of a refugee crisis developing in western Indian borders during late transformation phase of ITP. It is highly probable that the refugee population is of two types – The RAPE class and religious minorities. Based on past behavioral patterns, the RAPE class will receive overwhelming support from Indian WKK-brigade (Wagha Kandle Kissers) wile the religious minorities will be seen as an economic and social burden on India by the Indian ruling class.

    Based on Bangladesh freedom movement and Talibanization of Afghanistan experiences, It is safe to estimate that at least 15-20 million refugees will try to cross into India thru its western borders. These people will receive significant opposition and harassment from bordering Indian states Gujarat, Rajastan, Punjab, and Haryana, whereas there is fair chance that Kashmir valley separatists welcome some of these refuges on religious grounds, in a tactical move to future maneuvers. India’s internal political fissures will be exploited by WKKs in all the border states to enhance their vested interests.

    It is in the best interests of India to seal off Indian borders and contain any future refugee situation to af-pak region. One strategy is to support internal independence movements so the refugees see little need to move to India. Balochistan and Sindh regions offer great value in this regard, provided India offers generous financial and water resources under UN auspices. An alternative, yet risky, strategy would be for India to use UN to occupy a small area within ITP and declare it as a demilitarized zone (DMZ) for refugees.

    In all the possibility an impending refugee crisis will be a game changer vis-à-vis India. It is in India’s best interests that the Indian defense and political leadership prepares a well-rounded strategy to contain and support ITP refugee flow to serve its agenda.

    Terrorism
    The root of terrorism emanating from Pakistan lies in Pakistan’s identity crisis and jealousy. Pakistan created and supported various terror outfits in its borders to hurt India in the past two decades. The advent of ITP will not change the ground situation in any way. ITP will become an overt terror state not only in Indian eyes but also for the international community. This will help India in removing the excuse of “non-state actors” and allow it to take suitable military action.

    A possible side effect of the transformation of ITP can impact the Kashmir valley in Jammu and Kashmir. The Kashmir separatists might get emboldened by the perceived [sic] Islamic victory across the border might demand either unification with ITP or implementation of Sharia in the valley. A logical approach to this issue would be to repeal Article 370, which gives special status to the state of Jammu & Kashmir, as the whole JK issue becomes meaningless with the formation of ITP.

    At national level, talibanization of Pakistan will open new opportunities for India. Creation of ITP will convince the Indian public on the dangers of Islamic fundamentalism once and for all. This will enable the Government of India to develop suitable anti-terror laws and civic infrastructure such as special intelligence services, courts, and paramilitary forces. If done properly such an initiative will have many positive side effects such as lower crime rate, better international credit rating etc.,

    Role of Religion
    People born and die, whereas the religion lives on and evolves/transforms. At least two generations of Afghans lived thru the current geopolitical game with no hope in the horizon. Similarly India has seen three generations of Pakistanis born and died in the past 60 years, but peaceful-coexistence is still a mirage in Indian subcontinent. Pakistani society’s hatred and jealousy for any/every Indian value has increased many fold in the same period. Indian Muslims must make note of this in evolving their faith to suite the modern values of religious pluralism, respect for women’s-rights, and focus on scientific reasoning in life.

    Indian Muslims received their faith from the desert lands of west-Asia. It is time for Indian Muslim community to return the favor to Islamic-Ummah by offering an alternative perspective on faith, life, and environment where Islamic-Ummah can be at peace with itself and others. Indiam Muslims should demand a seat at Ummah’s high-table where they can explain their brothers and sisters the difference between religion and once history, culture and heritage and that blind adherence to foreign culture, history and heritage removes the individual from their environment destroying the very spiritualism that religion claims to improve.

    Conclusion
    In summary the overall political, military, and terror posture of Pakistan will not change in the event of overt talibanization of Pakistani society. On the other hand it will open up new opportunities for Indian political leadership to get out of the geopolitical shackles of Pakistan and continue with its national resurgence. This development also provides a rare opportunity for Indian Muslims to lead the world Muslim community by balancing between religion and local culture/heritage.

    [​IMG]

    Above table summarizes various influence factors, their weightages and threat probabilities with respect to current state of Pakistan and a possible ITP. As we can see the overall threat to Indian national interests is reduced by nearly 15%, which is equal to complete disappearance of Pakistani terrorism.

    Now it is up to Indian political leadership to plan ahead and come up with suitable strategies to benefit from this once in a millennium opportunity. Such a vision would require clarity of national purpose, self-confidence, and efficient use of national resources. The world community is observing India with keen interest and lots of hope.

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    Last edited: Jul 22, 2010
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  3. ajtr

    ajtr Veteran Member Veteran Member

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    Isn't that true that Pakistan has already been talibanised by its 60 years of experiments with radical wahabi islam???If not what else has remained to be talibanised there????
     
  4. nrj

    nrj Stars and Ambassadors Stars and Ambassadors

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    Talibanization of Pak is indirectly in Indian interests. Unfortunately its harmful for the native pakistanis but the consecutive Goverment sitting in Pak are comfortable with it rather it has been nourishing atmosphere for them. Although Talibanization of Pak is a sad view to look for the solution of the problem. Pak Goverment has never wanted to be part of solution for Talibanization of the af-pak region unless it has threatened the working government, so naturally Pak Gov is itself part of the problem in this view. However, India is not the one calling shots in this af-pak situation but it is US. India can not be relaxed in this process. There is always danger about spreading of this talibanization within the the Indian territory.
     
    Last edited: Jul 22, 2010
  5. ajtr

    ajtr Veteran Member Veteran Member

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    If india has to take care of situation in the AF-PAK.If it doesnt then it will be fighting talibans on its own soil among its own people as pakistan is "doing" now(which i'm doubtful as being dog and pony show).
     
  6. nitesh

    nitesh Mob Control Manager Stars and Ambassadors

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    What is the problem of India if Pakistanis achieve there true destiny
     
  7. nrj

    nrj Stars and Ambassadors Stars and Ambassadors

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    If India has to take care of af-pak so as to assure stability within Indian borders, it'll need some strong political will coupled with stable Gov to carry on the founded policy. I do not see it happening as of now. We will just look for temporary solutions than preventing the problem from its roots.
     
    Last edited: Jul 22, 2010
  8. ajtr

    ajtr Veteran Member Veteran Member

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    Problem is that they will try to take india to same destiny as that of their.Their only motto is...

    "Hum to doobenge sanam tumhein bhi le doobenge"

    loosely translated as......If we go down we will take you down along with us
     
  9. Singh

    Singh Phat Cat Administrator

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    The problem is radicalization will have a catastrophic spillover effect on India as has been evident over the last 30 years.

    1. Pakistan has fueled many insurgencies and acts of terrorism in India such as Khalistan, Kashmir, IC-814 and the Indigenous Islamic (Simi and the like). This has resulted in the loss of lacs of lives and billions of dollars. If past is an indicator, future will not bode well for India.

    2. Pakistan has also caused us to inflate our military budgets and curtail rights in favour of security. A taliban Pakistan has the potential of turning India into a quasi-security state, and give greater power to the security establishment.

    3. Pakistan's talibanization has had a feedback effect on the religious right wing in India. There are reports of growing radicalization amongst India muslims and Indian hindus. A Talibanized Pakistan will ensure that the Hindu-Muslim divide will strengthen. And not to mention millions of minorities dead in Pakistan.

    4. Obviously with a talibanized nuclear state in our neighbourhood, India's security outlook will worsen. There will be a massive flight of capital from the nation, FDI will reduce, taxes will increase to shoulder the extra economic burden of security. Our gdp growth will reduce and our dream of becoming a developed nation will have to wait indefinitely, perhaps.

    5. With any attack on India, India will have an option of either declaring war on Pakistan or putting pressure. Putting pressure as we have realized will not work, and declaring war can result in a nuclear war. Essentially we will have to increase covert action in Pakistan which will also mean a rise in number of terror attacks in India. No city or madrassa in Pakistan will be safe from India, and consequently no market or city will be safe in India from Pakistanis.

    PS: Pakistan was created so that the feudal Muslim elite continues to be powerful. It is fulfilling its destiny.
     
  10. LETHALFORCE

    LETHALFORCE Moderator Moderator

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    what difference will it make when the military and ISI who are running the country are already talibanized??
     
  11. Singh

    Singh Phat Cat Administrator

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    The answer is they are not (atleast not completely)
    They use Taliban for achieving their strategic interests. Taliban in Astan is awesome, Taliban in Punjab is bad news for Pakistan.
     
  12. nrj

    nrj Stars and Ambassadors Stars and Ambassadors

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    How long will it last? This destiny is short-lived.
     
  13. Agantrope

    Agantrope Senior Member Senior Member

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    As long as there is a distance between india and talibs are always good. It will be a bad day for India when talibs capture the pakistan.
    It may still feuds the terrorism in india as like today.
    Any War escalation will end in nuclear war. Cowards often press the button soon.
    Main weapon of the talibs is the Religion. They hypnotise the gullible indian peoples who follows the islam and it may result in the new SIMI like terrorist organisations, Popular Front like political wing of it

    It will be good as long as pakistan remains as a buffer state between us and the talibs
     
  14. LETHALFORCE

    LETHALFORCE Moderator Moderator

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    There will be a long battle between pak punjabis and Taliban before this ever happens and if the Punjabis fight sincerly they should easily defeat the Taliban.
     
  15. Singh

    Singh Phat Cat Administrator

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    Pakistan society is not exactly a modern intellectual liberal society.

    Talibanization is an ideology not people.
    Taliban btw follow Deoband Islam.
     
  16. thakur_ritesh

    thakur_ritesh Administrator Administrator

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    taliban taking over pakistan would be one of the worst things to happen but if it were to happen we will have to live with it. we better make our internal security top notch, cure our many uprisings that are happening right in the heart of the country to the NE and make sure we do not at any time let the extremists take center stage from any side of the rightists or the leftists or as happened post independence when after a decade of 8% economic growth we had to lick our wounds for the next three and a half decades a similar script might be re-written and this time keeping the country united will be a lot more difficult because a talibanized pakistan, a radical bangladesh and commie china would not leave any stones unturned to make the most of this opportunity.

    we better be prepared for the worst if we are not, which does look like the case atleast for now!
     
    Last edited: Jul 22, 2010
  17. Singh

    Singh Phat Cat Administrator

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    I agree with the gist of your post that India needs to concentrate on internal security and inclusive of growth. A strong India can dictate its terms regionally and globally (our impressive growth and military power is what got us a lot of clout in the first place) and will also allow us to weather any storm.

    However, the political class is oblivious to this fact, why else would we engage Pakistan, not take out Maoists, foster Hindu-Muslim divide and let Kashmir boil despite winning the insurgency ?

    Keeping in mind the ground realities and our shortcomings it is advisable that India does all it can to prevent Talibanization of the neighbourhood in the short term and overhaul the political rot and security holes in the medium-long term.
     
  18. DaRk WaVe

    DaRk WaVe Regular Member

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    Talibanized Pakistan means a bigger mess in world & more terrorism, what washed up on our borders from A-stan will wash up on Indian border, When your neighbor's house is burning then you must hope that fire brigade puts the fire before your home is also turned into ashes
     
  19. ajtr

    ajtr Veteran Member Veteran Member

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    There is a difference---Pakistan knowing allowed to create and foster it with america's active/inactive help allowing it to percolate deeper into the society.India on the other hand has been fighting it and for the same time period not allowing it to take roots into indian society.
     
  20. Singh

    Singh Phat Cat Administrator

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    At the end of the day Afghanistan and Pakistan are aspirationally similar and have open borders.
    India and Pakistan are aspirationally different and have sealed borders.

    Indian govt and people are fortunately not sadistic, and unfortunately not influential when it comes to Pakistan's internal issues. It is upto the Pakistanis to decide the future of their country, India can only react.
     
  21. thakur_ritesh

    thakur_ritesh Administrator Administrator

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    for a better understanding i would like to understand how severely was Iran effected when the taliban were ruling a'stan? i know then they had amassed their armed forces on their borders for a war which eventually did not happen post the intervention by pakistan (what a huge favor the iranians would have done on the americans if the war would have taken place, but then clinton's america would have then supported the taliban :D) and there was a huge support given to the northern alliance.

    Paaji,

    i doubt we could do much incase the pakistan army influenced by the isi were to decide that it was time for religious heads to head the government the way it happens in iran, (the way i see this happening will be by way of mass street protests backed by the isi eventually leading to a revolution of sorts) and then have a name sake democracy much like today but by doing that they would have scuttled a lot of pressure off their shoulders. let us not forget soon there will come a leadership in their armed forces which has a bigger leaning towards their religion than we have ever had and let alone india, i doubt even the US would be of any use.

    our political leadership seriously does need to wake up.
     

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