I think the fact that there aren't any live ball by ball updates from him is not conclusive evidence that he may be dead.
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If Hafiz Saeed were dead, would the BJP allow the brownie points to go down the drain by not claiming credit for it? And if Hafiz was killed, would Pakistan keep insisting that there were no surgical strikes, instead of using it as fodder to recruit more jihadis to LeT?
You've answered your own question. No one's for sure if Hafeez is dead or not. It's not even clear if the state of his health had anything to do with last week's strike. However, we did hear a lot of chatter and whispers about a high value target (HVT) being taken out or captured. Now I think it's less likely that an
aiyyaashi, aaram pasand, rotund pig like Hafiz Saeed will go anywhere near the spartan LeT camps near the LoC. Not just because the accommodation will be less than comfortable, but also due to a real danger of him being taken out in surgical strikes or even mortar fire from across. No, the pig is cowardly and self-preservationist to the core to keep himself safely enmeshed in Muridke, while he dispatches cannon fodder to the LoC and elsewhere.
However, it's possible that his son or top commanders were there to oversee the final stages of a big terror strike and they were taken out or captured. Plus, he is rumoured to have lost a few handlers and preachers in the strike. These are more valuable than ordinary jihaadis, because they probably occupy a space higher up the ladder and replacing them becomes difficult.
The reports of heart attack too seem puzzling. It's probably a stretch to imagine that he may have been "poisoned" ala Al Baghdadi, which would suggest that the surgical strikes "penetrated" far deeper than acknowledged and this was not the spur of the moment- groundwork was in lace and would have happened sooner or later. Uri was the trigger.
Regarding, claiming the credit for offing him. If he turns up alive after a few days, months or even years, those who claimed credit will have a egg on their faces. The others will run riot. No, the best curse of action is let the details come out on their known. If he's indeed
halaaled or incapacitated, it will come our sooner or later.
It's still befuddling to me why Pakistan is insisting the raids didn't happen, given that their narrative has always been that of an 'aggressor Indian Goliath' being pushed back by the mighty Pakistani army. This might be the first time in international relations where the attacker is saying "I have broken the ceasefire, breached your territory and hit you" and the victim is saying "no no, you have not breached any rules". Basically they are letting us have an escape route, which means that if they find out that we have destroyed more things than we had initially claimed, then they cannot stick that bill on us, because they have already given us a clean chit.
If indeed Hafiz Saeed was killed in this raid, then Pakistan has already given a clean chit to India. How is this going to help the Pakistani narrative? Too much confusion on my side. Maybe this is what they call the fog of war.
You should understand the psychology of the Baki army. It has been amply explained by gurus on BRF, in media and "scholars" from overseas who have had a chance to see TSPA up close.
Christine (un)Fair, the Baki-loving motorhama, who turned sour on them has this to say about the TSPA
"
[Pakistani army] view defeat very differently. They don't view it in terms of territory lost or value of territory or number of lives lost. They view defeat as that moment when they can no longer resist India."
Now this is a very important point to understand. Losses in war do not count as long as Pakistani army is alive and kicking and ready to fight the next battle with the "Hindu Indians".
Lost land in 1965-> India did not take over Lahore, Sialkot, AoA, we won.
Lost East Pakistan, Turtuk, land along LoC and 90,000 PoWs in 1971-> India failed to dismember Pakistan into more than two parts, AoA, we won.
Lost in Siachen-> We are facing eevil Yeendus at Siachen and eevil yeendus cannot come further (nevermind we cannot even see it, nor have we shown any interest in going further yet), AoA, we won.
Lost in Kargil-> India never crossed the LoC, We sit on top of a previously unoccupied peak on LoC (nevermind surrounded by IA posts on three sides and would the first to be roasted in a war), Internationalised the Kashmir issue, AoA, it was a tactical victory screwed by Ganja Sharif.
And now the Uri strikes. You get the picture.
Any public humiliation that leads to the loss of their self-proclaimed "honour and dignity" especially vis-a-vis India is what they perceive as true defeat.
The surgical strikes caught them totally unawares. They expected that it would be business as usual as it was during MMS time- dossiers, diplomacy etc. To be fair to them, GoI too seemed to be headed in that direction and they thought, Modi for all his pre-election bluster was too constrained by economy and international pressure to escalate.
But a coordinated striker along a large swathe of LoC, simultaneously targeting many camps, dispatching jihaadis, handlers, coordinators and motivators alongwith unspecified TSPA left them toally nood, with chaddis pulled down to the ankles. They cannot admit that they were royally screwed by the enemy they hate the most and that with one stroke, GoI and IA demolished all their so-called red lines.
Worse, our strikes have been acknowledged and even appreciated by world at large. Baki chaddis have been pulled down and the world is openly laughing and smirking at them. So how do they react? They claim that nothing happened, they are still wearing pants and whosoever disagrees is lying.
It's like a
sadakchaap gunda who used to pester the local people was finally thrashed in public, stripped bare and paraded on a donkey. Next day he comes back black and blue all over, his minions who did not see the incident, but heard about it, quickly surround him and start hankering for details
Minions:
Bhai, yeh kya sun rahe hain, suna hai us fauji ne kal aapki baja daali, waheench galli mein dho daala.
Gunda:
Kaun bola be ye, apun ko ko kuchh nahin huela hai. Koi mai ka laal paida nahin hua to bhai pe haath daal sake.
Minions:
Lekin bhai, aapki ki sar se pair tak vaat lag gayeli hai, daant bhi gaayab, thobra soojela hai, aap to chal bhi nahin paa rahe.
Gunda:
Woh to apun peeyela tha aur gatar mein gir gaya. Apun itna full too tha ki waheench so gaya.
Minion:
Lekin bhai...
Pakiya (Bhai's trusted lieutenant):
Chup saale, bhai bola na ki bhai ko kuchh nahin huela hai to nahin huela hai. Abhi zyada syaanpatti karne ka nahin aur nikal patli gali se. Khaali peeli bheje ki dahi kar rela hai.
Minions all walk away. When they have gone, Bhai calls Pakiya
Gunda:
Pakiya..
Pakiya:
Haan bhai..
Gunda:
Ja darwaaza band kar aur balm or senke wali baatli le kar aa...
Pakiya
: Laaya bhai..
Gunda:
Aur Pakiya..
Pakiya
: Haan bhai..
Gunda:
Sandaas pe senk waali takiya rakhne ka..
Pakiya
: Jo hukum bhai..
This in a nutshell is Bakistan..