Is China ready to sail in a choppy water?

Discussion in 'China' started by kickok1975, Sep 28, 2011.

  1. kickok1975

    kickok1975 Stars and Ambassadors Stars and Ambassadors

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    Maybe not.

    1. Our leaders are still lack political will and obsessed with so called “harmonious” society while the whole government system is deeply corrupted, lack of transparency and social justice.
    2. Our generals are still interested in spending billions of dollars purchasing weapons from other country which indicates they are not fully confident of our own equipment (General Guo boxiong is currently in Moscow on a shopping spree)
    3. Our weapon development is still heavily relying on reverse engineering and copycat, lack of innovation even though we have some new jet developed recently, which means we still have a long way to go on R&D
    4. Our military force has been lack of real combat experience for too long (more than 20 years) and has been contaminated by “harmonious society” as well. It’s a big question mark if they can face some real challenge
    5. Our family size has been reduced to the bare minimum thanks to one child policy. A lot of our children are spoiled and parents are reluctant to let their children service the country
    6. Our economic structure is still outbound oriented and too many jobs are tied with exporting business . Our country is heavily rely on importing resources from foreign countries and both aforementioned points make us very vulnerable should some major crisis happen

    These are some of my personal concerns about China. I’m afraid we are not completely ready yet to face all challenges but it doesn’t mean we should give up our interest to please everyone. Conflict and war is not solution but significant concession is also not an option. It requires a lot of wisdom, courage and calculation to sail in such choppy water. But can our government accomplish it?
     
    Last edited: Sep 28, 2011
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  3. sob

    sob Moderator Moderator

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    A very interesting critique from your side. It is important to know of ones weakness and work on them. With the pluses come the minus, they need to be balanced. But then utopia is and will always remain a dream.
     
  4. Illusive

    Illusive Senior Member Senior Member

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    Vietnam alone did a lot of damage to China in the past, although things in China have changed greatly, but still China should be aware of the consequences of its arrogance towards the ASEAN, towards India and Japan.
    A friendlier appraoch wont harm its interests and also help make new allies.
    Also I heard from other Chinese members in the other forum of possibilities of a military coup in the future, some say its inevitable. Thats a risk too.
     
    Last edited: Sep 28, 2011
  5. Adux

    Adux Senior Member Senior Member

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    A country which is 80% export oriented economy v/s a country which is 70% Domestic consumption. A War with India will be absolutely devastating for the Chinese economy.
     
  6. amitkriit

    amitkriit Senior Member Senior Member

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    My question is whether India is ready to do the same. My view is that west looks at both India and China as serious threats, and wishes to take advantage of our rocky relationship. But I am sure that our policymakers are mature enough to see the real picture, and we will manage to avoid mutual destruction and bloodshed at all cost.

    A war at this juncture will hurt us, it will push us back by several decades. Let us concentrate on the real issue, that is "creating a great future for our people", and let us keep engaging each other in fruitful discussions/negotiations.

    I have said this before, Asia must belong to Asians, and we are capable enough to solve our problems on our own, peacefully.
     
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  7. Ray

    Ray The Chairman Defence Professionals Moderator

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    Interesting observations.

    One cannot be the best in all fields.

    The Chinese defence industry has done well in leaps and bounds, but yet there are fields where it has not got total expertise, like aircraft engines or aircraft carriers. Therefore, it would not be surprising if the Chinese Defence Minister or military personnel go shopping for the same abroad.

    No country has ever had a totally 'harmonious' society. It is an impossibility. There will always be the haves and the have nots and there will always be a strife. What is important is that the Govt controls the dissensions in such a way that the stability of the country is not so badly shaken that there is a revolution. China's mode to control dissensions may not be ideal, but then they have been able to control secessionists and other dissenters whereby the stability of the country has not been shaken in too adverse a manner.

    A Readers Digest survey states that the Russians and the Chinese are the most patriotic people in the world. If that be the case and the survey is true, then the 'spoilt' children of China because of the One Child policy (and that they are spoilt should not be surprising) is better than the unspoilt children elsewhere.

    True, China has to look at means how to keep their economy booming, beyond being dependent merely on exports.

    War has never been an answer for development.

    That is why countries must desist from wanting to exercise hegemonic aspirations.
     
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  8. amoy

    amoy Senior Member Senior Member

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    Really an interesting topic. Here's my take

    for (1) I'm always suspicious of the hoopla and media attention around the "Harmonious Society" goal put forward by Hu, since many bureaucrats are perceived to interpret 'Harmony' their way as covering up problems or showcasing by 'Potemkin Village' alike. And CCP seems losing locomotive steam to get upfront with the widening social disparity. Against the backdrops of the 'cake' growing big many feel less and less relevant to the boom

    for (2) Military procuremnt from Russia is way beyond acquiring hardware plus know-how. Furthermore it's also abt balancing out the bilateral trade and overall relationship, in subtlety. With its sheen fading away as an superpower, Russia certainly is gruntling as it's relying on exp of raw materials in exchange for China's finished consumer goods, and China is seen as a contender in many ways incl. a recent aid to Belarus which is regarded as the bear's backyard..

    for (6) IMO it's an exaggeration that the economy is 80% exp oriented. In fact foreign trade stands for 60% of China GDP, and trade surplus 6% of GDP but declining. That being said it's still a big challenge for China to boost domestic demands, back to (1) incl. buidling up a sound social security network and narrowing income gaps to encourage consumption instead of saving.
     
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  9. Armand2REP

    Armand2REP CHINI EXPERT Veteran Member

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    One positive I have seen is when enough people online complain, the government reverses its policy. The internet has been a real positive for China as even with 40,000 Jing Jings and Cha Chas, the people still cannot be silenced. The protests so far have been localised so it isn't destabalising yet, but protests are getting more organised and more influential that the CCP can no longer ignore them. One of these days the protesters are going to get a national organisation and no more CCP.

    And if China wasn't under an EU embargo it would tens of billions. PLA lacks pretty much all critical technologies, especially engines of most types which are necessary for self sufficiency. For China to "sail in choppy water" she needs to stop copying weapons and start developing them. That is how you become self-sufficient.

    I have been reading blogs about Chinese officers and they say that the military is as corrupt and lazy as the government. Who has to pay bribes to get low tier jobs in a military? I drive around and see all the white plated military vehicles parking where they want, driving how they want and no police to stop them. I could go buy a fake military plate for 200 quai and many people do. You know the real military vehicle only if it is a luxury car like Mercedes. The military is like a new privileged caste society. It is not made to fight wars but to rule the people with an iron fist.

    Chinese urban kids are the most spoiled on the planet. Being the only child the parents buy them anything they want. Watching them in class I see they are selfish and greedy. They do not know the word "share" or "care" about other people. This generation is growing every year and it will be the undoing of the fabric of society.

    Chinese exports already had its peak before the global crisis so you can't get growth out of a dead horse. The real problem for the Chinese economy is its reliance on construction. It is over 50% of GDP and accounts for nearly all growth. China is already saturated by new developments with 25-30% vacancies in residential and commercial space. CCP is addicted to this growth model and has nothing to replace it. To fund this building easy money has flooded the market and NPLs are in the hundreds of billions now and will go into the trillions when the bubble bursts. China is headed for a lost decade like Japan.

    No, your current government cannot accomplish it. Only a free China can meet those goals and it will either come by peaceful reform or a bloody civil war. Your rich tycoons are already fleeing the country leaving mountains of debt they will never repay, they see what is coming.
     
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  10. Adux

    Adux Senior Member Senior Member

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    Like Viets say, the French and Americans will go, the Chinese wont.
    Our concerns are shared by the them too, but the person who is 'more' scared about war, will be taken advantage of by the other. Indians should be seen as an entity which is not afraid of war, India should act beliergent and unpredictable as Pakistan does to India, our Nuclear stockpiles should reach 1000 warheads or more. Strength will be respected and understood.

    There is nothing like Asia for Asians. Both China and India has already outgrown the Asian continent. Chinese dont see Asia for Asians, rather for Asia rather the world for Chinese. Any Indian who thinks less than that, are doing much disservice to his nation.
     
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  11. kickok1975

    kickok1975 Stars and Ambassadors Stars and Ambassadors

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    We have too many Chinese hawks flooding all military forum but few of them recognize the weakness China has. It’s good to be patriotic but we need clear mind too. I attended a local US-China sister city celebration a couple days ago and meet a few Chinese officials and several rich businessman. In private they all admitted have strong desire to send their children abroad which most of them already did. Ironically almost all Chinese CCP leaders’ children had been studied or currently living overseas. These are the same people propaganda “Harmonious society”, control our military and direct our foreign policy. With that being said, it’s hard to imagine they can defend China’s interest without worrying about their children, maybe asset overseas. Our government enjoys “indisputable power and authority” with no regard to Chinese people’s will. That’s the biggest weakness as my concern.
     
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  12. ace009

    ace009 Freakin' Fighter fan Elite Member

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  13. ace009

    ace009 Freakin' Fighter fan Elite Member

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    Have you heard of a saying "dogs bark while elephants walk on" - India is like the elephant - large, slow in general, but very powerful. Pakistan is like a dog - all barky to get attention. India does not need that kind of attention. We don't need to have a stockpile of 1000 warheads to gain "attention" and respect. Only about 200-300 tactical warheads and a couple of dozen strategic warheads (at most) would be enough for defense. Rest (anything more) would be just a juvenile d1ck measurement contest and a wastage of precious resources.

    Last time someone said "Asia for Asians" was the Japanese empire, when they overran China, South-east Asia and the pacific islands including Philippines. Are you sure we want to even discuss that again?

    As for India - outgrowing a continent is not our goal - our goal is to provide decent lifestyle, political independance and military security to all Indians - that's it. That's all.
     
  14. asianobserve

    asianobserve Elite Member Elite Member

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    Sounds like "East Asian Greater Co-Prosperity Sphere." It didn't work with our less sophisticated grandfathers in SEA it will not work now. Dude try singing another tune..
     

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