Discussion in 'West Asia & Africa' started by johnee, Aug 10, 2009.
X-posted from another forum.
If you look at Bruce Riedel's arguments, he makes the statement "A stable Pakistan is in India's interest" come true with some clever sophistry in the genre of "I am less of a rapist that the other guy. You will be raped by him if you do not tolerate me".
This is, after all what the Pakistan army does successfully.
The National Interest
Because of such dire threat scenarios, it is being "accepted" that a stable Pakistan is necessary.
"We are so afraid of the LeT and Taliban that we would rather love the Pakistani army.
Hey but the US is allowed to love the Pakistan army? But India?
For India the Pakistan army and LeT are one and the same
Its for international consumption. I dont think thats the view in private.
No stable pakistan is bad for india.. India should make sure pak remain in trouble....
i think we should have to vote on this.
My money is with unstable pakistan at present,given the fact they are born to level scores with india. i am open to change my stand in future when the trust between both countries will increase. if one could ask me that the trust should be increased from indian side then i ll say its only pakistan's call to do so. India has done more than enough for the same. i can see there is little change in mind set ordinary pakistani since they are feeling the pain what is happening there in pakistan. Now they are understanding that whatever is happening in pakistan due to there irrational anti india policies is ending up being a futile and costlier misadventure.
Very simple physics: For every action there is equal and opposite reaction.
A good Pakistan (for India ) is an annihilated Pakistan.
No body stopped Pakistan to progress and become a stable prosperous country. But since birth it is unnecessarily taking India as a threat and every policy in Pakistan is originated to counter India. The nation as a whole is a victim of Paranoid psychosis and it has gone to the level of 'no return'. It kept on maintaining a much bigger military force in comparison to its affordibility , it promoted jihadis to cut India with thouand wounds and now it is almost in front of bankruptcy and severely wounded by the jihadis and fundamentalists they promoted once. Somebody quite accurately said Pakistan is a nuclear power with no proper power. Stability and prospwerity seemto be a remote dream..even if it can be achieved by a miracle the mind set up of Pakistan will never be changed as I said it has gone to the level of no return.
Yes, a stable, prosperous subcontinent is in India's interest. That's a no-brainer.
Only a "friendly" stable Pakistan is of use to India. We can make a lot of money from their market. And thats what maybe the politicians mean when they say that. Otherwise and unfriendly Pakistan, whether stable or not makes no difference to India. It will have to keep fighting its war against terror.
a unstable pakistan cant be in favou of india- pakistan's unstability means - taliban's overpowering in pakistan .
which in turn can trigger danger for our border. we surely dont want talebani on our border. we had enough with let - and we all know what taleban can be. if we are facing problem - containing let and jud - taleban is way more powerful than them.
another thought is : why should we even want an unstable pakistan - this will be bad for pakistani people. we as indian dont have ant problem with pakistani people - rather we can relate to them way better than the politicans and powerful of our country.
the enemy is not poor arse country men from karach ihe is me and you. on other side of border.
problem are - the lawmakers, the politicians, the religion lords,
But, does the Pakistan wants to be stable??. Pakistan has taken great pains in expanding its military to counter India at the cost of prosperity and peace to its citizens. The motto of Pakistani establishment (which is nothing but Pakistani army) has been destruction of india by 1000 cuts even if at its own destruction. It has failed to destroy India by its 1000 cuts policy, but it has succeeded in destroying itself. It is on the brink of complete destruction by its brainchild Jihadis. Even India cannot to do anything to save it from destruction, as it is in a position of point-of-no-return.
Moreover, a prosperous Pakistan is never good for Indian interests, as it gives enough ammunition to use against India recklessly, which it has done in the past. Stable pakistan is not amenable to Indian interests as it wants India's destruction at any cost. So, India should take proactive steps to break pakistan into smaller states which could be amenable to Indian interests. Pakistan can be fragmented based on its ethnic tensions that are simmering for a while now, such as, Balochistan, Pashtunistan, Sindh, Seraikistan, Baltistan. All India needs to do is covertly support the separatist factions to achieve their goals without much bloodshed.
It is the pakistani punjab region which is more rabid in its hate against India as you can see in their majority presence in the Pakistani military at top echelons. Pakistani punjab will be more controllable when pakistan is broken and has no more room to fall upon during war or for resources. It will also be land locked and rivers that it depends are under control of India.
Then, I will wish for a stable and prosperous fragmented states of Pakistan which would not be anti-India as it is now.
For all this to happen, we need to consider two patrons of Pakistan which are keeping it alive on ICU, namely, US and China. With China being slowly sidelined from Pakistan by US in the name War on Terrorism, we can for now ignore China. Once we get US on our side, I think India can accomplish this objective.
Just my dreams..
Why will Taliban come to India. They will have hands full in Pakistan. Why didn't Taliban attack Pakistan when they were ruling Afghanistan, because they were stage managed by Pakistan. They have turned against Pakistan because Pakistan at the behest of US has been attacking them in their pakhtoon lands.
Moreover LeT and JuD are not some terrorist organization formed on their own, they were created by ISI. Aren't you following Hafeez Saeed court case, how shoddily they are conducting the prosecution. The quicker we realize this fact, the better it is for us. Don't get deluded that these terrorist organizations are on their own.
Yousuf is 100% right. You have to add the term "friendly". unfriendly Pakistan stable or unstable equaliy dangerous for India. Just go back by two decades. Condition of Pakistan was not as bad as today.....did they restrain from harming India? Not !
Solve all their problems and give them trillions of fund. They will end up buying arms and ammunation to counter India. This India phobia will remain as long India is there.
Answer lies in reflecting in the past, has a prosperous Pakistan been in our interest in the past and what all have we got in return of a stable Pakistan. Terrorism in Kashmir, Punjab, tactical support to Maoists, suspected role in ne, the infamous policy to bleed India through 1000 cuts, blasts all over the country, thousands of people killed all over the country, 48, 65, kargil, a nuke armed nation which has lunatics in high positions who fancy using them on India, a country where the idea of hate India is taught in text books of school children sounds most certainly not be in india’s interest.
The only ray of hope that I see coming from Pakistan are a section of their civil society who presumably want better relations with India, can this group come to centre stage. Well in a country where military thinks they own the country and have known to do coups, who have no respect for their own constitution, probably this one is a too far fetched thought.
I have always maintained the best way to deal with Pakistan is to either keep it bogged down with their mess that they keep finding themselves in every now and then for they have an amazing efficiency in creating such situations for themselves but the moot question is does India have the capability to keep Pakistan in that state and I have my doubts on that.
Or else make sure this country breaks up with just Punjab and nwfp as one country called Pakistan and may be also sindh but voices for an independent state consisting of sindh need to be heard more prominently. Baluchistan needs to be made an independent country where India has clear influence through which we make sure our needs of energy requirements are fulfilled. The point of getting back pok has already been discussed to great details and the importance of that, so that needs no further mention.
In all this it is very important that nwfp remains a part of Pakistan. We have seen how easily this region can erupt in flames and how this fire spreads like wild fire to other parts of Pakistan. An over aggressive Pakistan towards India can certainly be nipped through this weak point.
Yusuf, do you think that an Indian friendly Pakistani regime is possible as long as Zia era brainwashed military personnel are there in Pakistani military in near or mid-term future. I highly doubt it. In that case, shouldn't we pacify such an unstable, anti-india Pakistan by covert means to establish new states that will be amenable to Indian interests.
No. Not in the near or mid term future. Like TR said, its only when the saner elements come to center stage that its possible. But for that the PA and ISI has to lose its culture and become a subordinate of democracy.
I doubt if those saner elements (if there are any) will be allowed to occupy the center stage as long PA/ISI culture is there. But, how do one break the stranglehold of PA on democratic governments?. When will they become subservient to democratic governments?. These events are very unlikely given that the country has deeply rooted into such culture.
Well said. Now, do you ever expect Pakistan to be 'friendly' with India considering their domestic politics(and overarching grip of their military)?
No matter who comes to power in pak. They will work against India. So unstable pak is good coz they will engage in war of terror become empty from inside. If u give them money yes its true they still fund there army not on there economy. In both the cases they will work against India so its better when pak is weak and unstable.
Firstly, TR a great post. Congratulations.
Then, IMHO, all the 'saner' elements of Pakistan are just mild jihadi types. Scratch on the surface and one finds that they share the same antipathy towards India that the rest of the nation does.
Then, even if we take them on their face value, I dont think they can ever emerge on their national scene strong enough because Pakistan, by its very origin, has been a state which is attracted towards extremism of religion and antipathy towards India. Infact, these are the two reasons for the formation of Pakistan(partition of India) itself. That is those that have come to power in Pakistan had always had to present an extremist face of religion to prove themselves muslims enough and hostility towards India to prove themselves pakistanis enough.
So, waiting for the 'softer' elements to take centre-stage is no option at all for India. India can work on other options that you have proposed.
Again, thumbsup for your post.:113:
A stable Pakistan that is not our sworn enemy is in our interest but that is really far fetched.
The next best (or least worst) option is a fragmented Pakistan with its southern fragments friendly to India and the rump northern parts powerless and impotent to do anything substantial.
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