Is a stable Pakistan in our interest?

nitesh

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the TTP doesn't have the ability to conduct a commando operation (like for example the one in Mumbai that was done by LeT). They need the hallmark of Pakistani army training and that can only be got from the Kashmiri groups.

Whatever "training" (I doubt it, but anyhow) the CIA/PA gave to the Taliban was way back in the cold war era. But mostly, they just gave them guns/rocket launchers and sent them off to battle.
Lame argument, where those stingers are? The anza manpads? Are you saying that they were used by kashmiri Jihadists in afghan war?

If you say so :lol:
Yes it is a dream that will never come true.

The USA might allow it, and frankly even if the USA doesn't want it, China can march in under the pretext of fighting the Uighur terrorists.

If not, then maybe the Indian Army can move in. Even better.
Well we can only speculate

Yeah...we're going to sit and pray that they hit South Korea and not us? :)>
Right now they all will be used only and only against India and a tool for continuous nuclear back mail now they have to target various places including China. I think this scenario is better.
 

johnee

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If that's your worst case scenario, I'd consider upping the thread level to bloody-hellish case scenario.
Supposing that the Pakistani Army somehow crumbles, the Talibunnies take ove the government, where do you think they'll go next? Kashmir. If you think Kashmir is bad today, wait till the Taliban team up with Al Qaida to cause some real mayhem.
Today, at least you have a state to deal with which is to some extent answerable to the UN and to other global powers. The Taliban has no such qualms. They'll be so emboldened by their victory in Pakistan that they'll pull out all the stops. The entire Af-Pak region will turn into a breeding ground for Jihadists (yes, far worse than today).
With the Pakistani Army, atleast we know that we can defeat them if they try and attack. But these mujahideen aren't the kind who sign surrender documents and then keep quiet if you get the drift.

I think the horrors of such a situation are too scary to contemplate. Lets be good and try to beat our neighbour into a functioning democracy. That's the only way out IMO.
Well, lets rewind a bit...exactly a year before, India was attacked with impunity by Pakistan in Mumbai killing 200 odd Indian and foreign citizens. India fumed with anger, MEA(and a part-time PM then) Pranab Mukherjee announced 'all options are open'. Then Pakistan upped the ante, they threatened a nuclear war if even limited strikes were attempted even in POK. What happened? India crumbled under the nuclear threat. Then India tried to use diplomacy, because our leaders like you believed that Pakistan is still to some extent answerable to UN and other powers of the world. What happened? Absolutely no progress in the case of Hafiz Sayeed. ISI/PA go scot free after attacking India. Before that India was attacked in Afghanistan. Again after one year India's consulate again attacked. What has India been able to do?

Two reasons:
1) Of course, we can defeat the PA(because they are only good at creating and arming terrorists), but we wont get a chance to do so because PA will use the nuclear card and continue to wage war against India while India watches helplessly.

2)Pakistan gets funded by the same powers that are expected to curb its terristic ways. These funds are then used by Pakistan for anti-indian activities(recently admitted by Gen.Mush in as many words).

In the present condition that Pakistan exists, India can be engaged by Pakistan perpetually without any fear of impact.
But, if Taliban defeat PA and takeover Pakistan. Then, the first thing that will come into focus would be Nuclear arms of Pakistan. Nuclear arms of Pakistan today are only meant for India and everyone knows this. But if Taliban takeover, then they will extend the nuke blackmail to everyone else i.e US, EU, China, Israel, India. We will have company and they will be forced to act.

If you imagine Pakistan as a snake and its nukes as venom, then right now the snake has been trained to strike only us. But if the snake turns 'rogue' and can potentially attack 'everyone else', then 'everyone else' will take steps to defang(denuke) the snake(pakistan).

Then in the present scenario the Pakistan will keep getting aids from the powers that be inspite of knowing very well that these funds will be used against India. But if Taliban, takeover then such an arrangement is not possible and evenn the mighty taliban cannot fight without funds.

Now, consider a situation where Pakistan somehow survives the present crisis in its present form. If and when, US retreat from Afghanistan, Pakistan will put back the old arrangement. That is, talibuddies go back to torturing Afghanis and provide footsoldiers for Jihad in India, while PA lords over both Pakistan and Afghanistan. In this scenario, India(particularly Kashmir) would face the terrorism to the levels of 1980 again. Therefore the doomsday scenario that you fear can still come true, even in the present situation.

But if Taliban do takeover Pakistan, then the powers that be would be forced to act on Pakistan. Pakistan would lose all remaining credibility to stake claim on Kashmir. Taliban are international villians and everyone will find it legitimate if they are crushed. PA is only villian for India, when it stakes claim to Kashmir, then it seen as legitimate by international audience.
Lastly, taliban/pushtun fighters in Kashmir is not new. IA has dealt with them in the past and we can do so pretty well in the future. Our COIN ops capability need not be underestimated.

Lastly, Taliban are really successful in Pakistan because they enjoy sympathy from all quarters. There is a maddrass in every corner of Pakistan that brainwashes people. So, Taliban's success in Pakistan does not guarantee its success or even threat in India.

Therefore, Taliban gaining ascendency in Pakistan is in no way detrimental to the interests of India. Infact, that could pave way for future nation-states of Sindh, Balochistan and Pakjab that can then be forced to dance to the tunes of India.
 

Flint

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Lame argument, where those stingers are? The anza manpads? Are you saying that they were used by kashmiri Jihadists in afghan war? .
Not a lame argument sir:


GHQ attackers’ leader one of army defectors


The paper said, such a strike was planned by Pakistani Taliban, working with the banned Sunni Muslim extremist group Lashkar-e-Jhangvi.

The LeJ is also reported to have links with the Harkat-ul-Mujahideen (HuM), Pakistan-based terrorist outfit active in India’s Jammu and Kashmir. Many front ranking LeJ terrorists are have reportedly received training at HuM camps in Afghanistan.
The LeJ also maintains links with another Pakistan-based terrorist outfit, the Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM). Jaish Chief Maulana Masood Azhar reportedly wanted to name his outfit Lashkar-e-Muhammad but was ‘advised’ to avoid the association with the Lashkar-e-Jhangvi.


Do you get my point? The Taliban, Kashmiri groups, and other anti-Pakistan groups are cooperating.

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Yes it is a dream that will never come true.
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You sound like you'd prefer it not to...

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Right now they all will be used only and only against India and a tool for continuous nuclear back mail now they have to target various places including China. I think this scenario is better.
I really cannot fathom how its possibly better for nukes to be in the hand of the Taliban than the Pakistani state. But never mind.
 

johnee

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the TTP doesn't have the ability to conduct a commando operation (like for example the one in Mumbai that was done by LeT). They need the hallmark of Pakistani army training and that can only be got from the Kashmiri groups.
Oh, do such distinctions between different sets of pigs exist anymore?!! They learn, cooperate and feed of each other while PA is the godfather of all the thugs of this region.
 

johnee

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I really cannot fathom how its possibly better for nukes to be in the hand of the Taliban than the Pakistani state. But never mind.
Because...world allows Pakistani state to have nukes, but will not allow Taliban to have them.

Because...nukes in the hands of Pakistani state are a threat to India alone, while nukes in the hands of Taliban are threat to everyone.

Therefore, if we want to remove our threat(nukes in the hands of Pakistani state), our threat will have to become a threat to everyone else(nuke in talibani hands). Then world will do everything to denuke taliban and consequently Pakistan. That would mean nuclear sword hanging over our heads will be removed.

Is it really that difficult to get?!!! :rolleyes:
 

Flint

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Therefore, Taliban gaining ascendency in Pakistan is in no way detrimental to the interests of India. Infact, that could pave way for future nation-states of Sindh, Balochistan and Pakjab that can then be forced to dance to the tunes of India.
"future nation states"....too much speculation...too many things that could go wrong...terribly wrong...That's assuming that "the world" is able to defeat the Taliban in the hypothetically destroyed Pakistani state.

Anyways, I think we'll have to disagree here johnee. I cannot envision any good coming out of such a scenario.

P.S. - in all this heated discussion, we seem to have forgotten one important thing - is it likely that Pakistani army will simply roll over and let the Taliban take over? That itself is very unlikely.
 

Flint

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Because...world allows Pakistani state to have nukes, but will not allow Taliban to have them.:
Oh comeon - how can you trust that "the world" will be able to rescue said nukes? Its too risky. For all you know they'll set them off the minute they get their hands on them.

Because...nukes in the hands of Pakistani state are a threat to India alone, while nukes in the hands of Taliban are threat to everyone.
No they're not. They are only a threat to those in the vicinity. And India has a giant target painted on its head thanks to kashmir. If you're assuming that the Taliban will prefer to hit South Korea over India - please.

:
Therefore, if we want to remove our threat(nukes in the hands of Pakistani state), our threat will have to become a threat to everyone else(nuke in talibani hands). Then world will do everything to denuke taliban and consequently Pakistan. That would mean nuclear sword hanging over our heads will be removed.:
Or maybe the nuclear sword will swing and cut off our heads?
 

johnee

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"future nation states"....too much speculation...too many things that could go wrong...terribly wrong...That's assuming that "the world" is able to defeat the Taliban in the hypothetically destroyed Pakistani state.
I like being optimistic.:twizt:

P.S. - in all this heated discussion, we seem to have forgotten one important thing - is it likely that Pakistani army will simply roll over and let the Taliban take over? That itself is very unlikely.
Is PA an entity? Or are we seeing an internal fight here? An attack of GHQ cannot happen without internal help. Never before was the fight taken directly to PA in Pakistan. This is a new trend. I suspect that PA is in war with itself. One group the sympathises with the ideology of Taliban and the other trying to resist it. And in Pakistan, it is always the victory of 'more faithful'. Also, the madrassas are churning out li'lle jihadis at an enormous rate. The state coffers are empty and PA has to listen to US to sustain itself. Basically, PA is stuck between a rock and a hard place.

Lets see how it ends...
 

nitesh

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This does not proves any thing except there are people who are getting trained across the country. You still not answered the question. "Are you saying the stingers used in Afghan war were actually fired by Kashmiri Jihadists"
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You sound like you'd prefer it not to...
Well leave it. You have your view and I have mine but reality is close to mine view :)
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I really cannot fathom how its possibly better for nukes to be in the hand of the Taliban than the Pakistani state. But never mind.
It is simple nukes from hands of local terrorist (Pakistani state which is actually PA) so it's only our headache to changing hands towards global terrorists so they are headache of every one.
 

F-14

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but Flintji i think of this the taliban defeat the PA in the Current Theater of Operations and advance to the gates of Islamabad at the same time there is coup -de- ete by pro taliban elements of the ISI and PA in such a situation it is likely that Pakistani army will simply roll over and let the Taliban take over
 

Flint

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"Are you saying the stingers used in Afghan war were actually fired by Kashmiri Jihadists".
I didn't say that. I said that the people who trained them were quite likely the same guys involved with the Kashmir jihad. The quality of the operation in both Mumbai and the many assaults in Pakistan clearly indicate that these guys have had professional help.
 

nitesh

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Johnee has a point. Great points johnee thanks for putting it across
 

nitesh

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I didn't say that. I said that the people who trained them were quite likely the same guys involved with the Kashmir jihad. The quality of the operation in both Mumbai and the many assaults in Pakistan clearly indicate that these guys have had professional help.
ok so now they all are same so we should not worry at all about talibunny take over because we will be facing the same people :)
 

Flint

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I
Is PA an entity? Or are we seeing an internal fight here? An attack of GHQ cannot happen without internal help. Never before was the fight taken directly to PA in Pakistan. This is a new trend. I suspect that PA is in war with itself. One group the sympathises with the ideology of Taliban and the other trying to resist it. And in Pakistan, it is always the victory of 'more faithful'. Also, the madrassas are churning out li'lle jihadis at an enormous rate. The state coffers are empty and PA has to listen to US to sustain itself. Basically, PA is stuck between a rock and a hard place.
Its true that the guy who led teh GHQ attack was himself an ex-PA officer. Also, many Pakistani soldiers and officers have sympathized and or defected to the Taliban.
But I think you are underestimating both the professionalism and capabilities of the PA, as well as the ability of Washington to bend Pakistan to its will.

From what I see, the Pakistani state is not going to disintegrate anytime soon.
A few months ago the media was speculating that Pakistan would collapse in a few months and the TTP would take over Islamabad. Did that happen?
 

Flint

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ok so now they all are same so we should not worry at all about talibunny take over because we will be facing the same people :)
The same people multiplied many times over. AKA Mayhem.
 

johnee

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Oh comeon - how can you trust that "the world" will be able to rescue said nukes? Its too risky. For all you know they'll set them off the minute they get their hands on them.
You are sounding paranoid! Why would they just set them off? And set off on whom? India? Why?

The threat of nukes would work for them. Setting off nukes doesnt. Just like threat of nukes works for PA, but if they actually set off nukes on India, then the circumstances would be different.
Second, the very possibility of nukes in a talibani hand send shivers down the spine of US and EU, they would take all actions necessary to avoid that kind of situation.

No they're not. They are only a threat to those in the vicinity. And India has a giant target painted on its head thanks to kashmir. If you're assuming that the Taliban will prefer to hit South Korea over India - please.
In the same vicinity lies China that suppresses its muslim minorities. In the same vicinity lies Israel that is seen as tormentor of muslims. But why is the threat limited to the countries in the vicinity. A small amount of nuclear material exploded in the right way could create enough mayhem. And US would be the prime target of this kind of attack. And US knows it. This is the trump card. Everyone who supports the evil through PA will directly come under the attack of evil. Then they will make concerted efforts to eradicate it.

Or maybe the nuclear sword will swing and cut off our heads?
Paranoid!!! :scared_sofa:
 

Flint

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OK - if you think I'm paranoid for trying to ensure that a bunch of guys from the 16th century don't get their hands on some nukes which are optimised to strike India - then I think there's something very different about our understanding of the word "paranoia".
 

johnee

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Its true that the guy who led teh GHQ attack was himself an ex-PA officer. Also, many Pakistani soldiers and officers have sympathized and or defected to the Taliban.
But I think you are underestimating both the professionalism and capabilities of the PA, as well as the ability of Washington to bend Pakistan to its will.

From what I see, the Pakistani state is not going to disintegrate anytime soon.
A few months ago the media was speculating that Pakistan would collapse in a few months and the TTP would take over Islamabad. Did that happen?
I am not underestimating PA. But I am not going to overemphasize their capabilities either. Their records speaks for themselves. They are hardly an army, they are more of brokers of power and terrorist trainers. Anyway, that is beside the point. The main point is that you and I know that only thing that stands between complete taliban takeover is PA. But if PA crumbles from within, then who will stop taliban to takeover Pakistan?
US and NATO could stop taliban, I agree, but for that they will have to stop double dealing and enter the field themselves and not rely on PA. Taliban can be defeated easily by an external force or by any professional army. But PA has resisted international pressure to go against all terrorists because it intends to preserve its assets against the India. This is the reason for its losses. Because realistically speaking all the terror groups are relying on each other and one cannot be eliminated completely without hurting the interests of the other. Then number of radicalized officers within PA is really an unknown parameter. But we know that most of the footsoldiers are heavily brainwashed into believing that they are the islamic army to fight the kafir hindus. Can this kind of army fight against Taliban that claims to fight for Islam? When push comes to shove can PA resist Taliban. The real resistance will not be with guns but at ideological level. Can the soldiers and officers of PA resist the 'islamic' onslaught of Taliban for the sake of US? This is the question. And I think eventually the 'more faithful' will win. Infact, this is the prime reason to brand the taliban as funded by India. To claim that Taliban is an Indian agent is a way of discrediting the islamic credentials of Taliban so that the public opinion and soldiers could be motivated for fighting the taliban.

But would people fall for such lame claims is anyone's guess. I think the present scenario was waiting to happen in Pakistan sooner than later given the basis of Pakistan's creation.
 

johnee

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OK - if you think I'm paranoid for trying to ensure that a bunch of guys from the 16th century don't get their hands on some nukes which are optimised to strike India - then I think there's something very different about our understanding of the word "paranoia".
Hey, I was only teasing you. No offence meant. But really, the kind of doomsday predictions seem to be a fear of unknown more than a rational explanation. One thing we have to remember is that PA is same as Taliban. PA is terrorists in uniform while taliban are unshaven terrorists. Both stand for same ideals and both use same means. PA, due to its pretensions, can get away with a murder, while Talibanis cant. This is the difference.
 

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