India's response in case of an NSG Snub

Discussion in 'Defence & Strategic Issues' started by trackwhack, May 4, 2012.

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What should India do if we are not given full NSG membership

  1. Test a TN warhead and give them the bird

    26 vote(s)
    57.8%
  2. Dont test and continue with diplomatic begging

    5 vote(s)
    11.1%
  3. Dont test and use diplomatic clout in issues like Iran to defy the P5

    14 vote(s)
    31.1%
  1. trackwhack

    trackwhack Tihar Jail Banned

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    What should we do if we are not granted full membership this time?

    I say test a proper thermonuclear device. The press statement should read that India's arsenal is primarily fusion based and hence we do not require any more uranium than we already have to enhance our stockpile.
     
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  3. nrj

    nrj Stars and Ambassadors Stars and Ambassadors

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    Can we consider delay as a snub?

    It is unlikely that the stature of emerging powers like India will be unrecognized, leading to total outright rejection to the elite group.

    But the milder way to do that is delay the reforms indefinitely, like what we say in Hindi - Tarikh pe tarikh!

    Indian entry into NSG is a diplomatic battle from day-1.
     
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  4. trackwhack

    trackwhack Tihar Jail Banned

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    Delay is a snub. The question pertains to the next decision that they make. If they put it off for later, it is a rejection.
     
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  5. The Messiah

    The Messiah Bow Before Me! Elite Member

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    Test a TN warhead and give them the bird and unveil a new version of agni 5 with 15000km range.
     
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  6. ant80

    ant80 Regular Member

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    If only the idiot Nehru had accepted the offered post as part of the P5...
     
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  7. pmaitra

    pmaitra Moderator Moderator

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    I would have typically voted for "Dont test and use diplomatic clout in issues like Iran to defy the P5," but since we need to test and perfect our Hydrogen bombs, I am voting for "Test a TN warhead and give them the bird."
     
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  8. panduranghari

    panduranghari Senior Member Senior Member

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    Why should we even care about NSG? No one cares really about UN except the US-UK axis. We should just do things we need to do. Sometimes behaving like China has its own merits.
     
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  9. latsar

    latsar Regular Member

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    India should test TN device,test longer range ICBM's and should form an assertive foreign policy .Otherwise entry into these elite clubs like NSG,UNSC , etc will always remain a dream. The World can no longer ingnore one fifth of humanity .Its upto to the foreign policy maker's of INDIA TO FORM A MORE ASSERTIVE Foreign policy and break in into these elite clubs
     
    Last edited: May 5, 2012
  10. sayareakd

    sayareakd Moderator Moderator

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    best way to gate crash these club is to project power, which will make them have no other option but to accept us as valuable member.
     
  11. Patriot

    Patriot Senior Member Senior Member

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    India need to take it's allies in to confidence before testing TNW and this will be the last chance therefore we should conduct the series of tests till be validate all are designs for up to 1mega tonne device for TNW along with may be Neutron Bomb if in store.

    300KT to 1mt TN device tests are our need to ensure the credibility of our deterrence.

    Before going ahead with the tests , we must assess the ramification of the tests as well & loss planning/ delay with respect to on going defense project and impact on our economy due to the forthcoming sanctions on us.

    What is important before conducting the test is demonstration of our fool proof capability to deliver the weaponized TNW. Ideally the tests should be conducted when we have submarine launched version of Agni-X/ K-X for the 8000KM range atleast. In addition, our economy also need to be much more strong to withstand the sanction or the diplomatic/economical clout to avoid the sanctions.

    Once our triad is complete with TNW along with strong economy, we will ensure our place in NSG by default.
     
    Last edited: May 5, 2012
  12. roma

    roma NRI in Europe Senior Member

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    i voted for test a thermonuke and give them the bird .... i think only "our" chicom "members" voted infavour of continue begging ....which in itsellf begs the question of whether they should have the power of vote in our forum becuase as we could well guess they DO NOT represent indian opinion but would do their best to "SPOILl" the vote ....that in itself actually merits a separate discussion but should be considered here as not being off -topic as the vote is a part of the thread

    secondlly back to the nsg - i disagree with french member latsar above that the nsg cant ignore india's one fifth of the world's population - indeed they have done so all this while and will continue to do so ..... also remember minority rule in rhodesia and south africa ? not so long ago ? what did the P5 do against the minority regimes of those two countries ? nothing until the blacks there fought for their rights .....similarly for india

    thirdly a delay in full membership is a snub and should not be taken lightly ...

    FOURTHLY if snubbed, india should test a thermonuke WITHOUT DELAY !!

    FIFTHLY while going ahead for preparations for the thermonuke test india should play good cop/ bad cop games with the usa ....i.e. show that we are willing to co-operate with the usa in some of its sanctions against iran but at the same time threatening to throw the towel if they do not use their weight to back india and push -through ( as george bush did ) for full membership - i.e show them theat we can co-operate with them but their is a price and we dont come cheap ....on the other hand if they think we come cheap, then throw in the towel go ahead and test and play friends with iran
     
    Last edited: May 6, 2012
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  13. roma

    roma NRI in Europe Senior Member

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    Sir - i have slighly edited your remarks

    (1) take allies into cofidence ?? -- what allies may i ask ? with prc-dragon monthly transgressing the borders what ally has helped india ? russia ? ok maybe only them ! yes Russia ----- - usa ? only when their south east asia presence is threatened and as they need india as a counterbalance to prcdragon ? france ? they play to the highest bidder as do the uk and all else

    the only ally we have besides russia, is the insecurity the usa feels against a fast up and coming prcdragon and if we dont cash in on that we wont get peanut after the threat is perceived to be less - strike while the iron is hot and NOW is the time - give us what we wwanted frmo the NSG ( eg full membership ) OR WE TEST THERMONUKES is what i'd say .!

    (2) you talk about testing 1 Meg - i say try 4 Meg and even if we fail it gives the world the warning that we are not playing games - take us seriously or else......

    (3) economic sanctions - id ont think they will want to try that again - the last time in 1998 after the test conducted by the vajpayee govt , the sanctions adopted byt the west against india hurt the western companies a lot more than it did india and i think they learned a lesson from that - besides there were many variations in the sanctions and not uniform - i.e. if you couldnt get it from one you could from another not necessarily only france ! ) ....so many western nations have concluded that that menthod doesnt work too well - besides usa needs india ( at least to tome extent) as a counterbalance to prc and all that !! so sanctions shouldnt be such a scare

    (4) Sir, the other points i am in agreement with you
     
    Last edited: May 6, 2012
  14. latsar

    latsar Regular Member

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    I fully agree with you
     
  15. Yusuf

    Yusuf GUARDIAN Administrator

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    All major powers are slowly coming around. India cannot take a stupid step right now and blow it away. 60 years of all kinds of denial mindset cannot be removed in 6 years. That we got this far is an achievement. We can wait for a couple more years. It will not hurt us. The good thing is that we are getting uranium supplies from other countries.

    Track, you are wrong when you say we dont need uranium because we have fusion weapons. We need uranium for the fusion weapons in the primary and we needs tons of uranium to power our nuclear subs. This is why the nuke deal is so important. It frees our domestic uranium and enrichment facilities to concentrate on weapons program.
     
  16. trackwhack

    trackwhack Tihar Jail Banned

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    We have enough plutonium to create fission and fusion bombs in the thousands. Who is the NSG trying to fool by saying reprocessing technology is for weapons? We need technology to advance our own nuclear programs and I am sure BARC will be equally happy to commercialize the advances that we ourselves have made with respect to different fuel cycles. The fact is that we dont need either ore or technology to supplement our weapons program. Everyone knows that. What we need is purely commercial and not military. It will add at least 1% point to our economic growth in as little as 3 years once NSG full membership is achieved.Both in terms of private players co-operating to put up nuclear plants as well as new operators coming on line. The way I see it, the west wants to keep India out of it yet. And China is only too happy to oblige!
     
  17. Yusuf

    Yusuf GUARDIAN Administrator

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    I had written this

    http://sarvatravijay.wordpress.com/...of-indian-nuclear-arsenal-present-and-future/

    India is trying hard to up its uranium stockpile. You are stuck with plutonium for bomb making. You forget that we need uranium for nuclear reactors of all the submarines we intend to make. We have limited uranium enrichment facilities that is being expanded but it's just enough to cater to one nuclear submarine. We also need uranium for the primary of TNW.
     
  18. Mr.Ryu

    Mr.Ryu Regular Member

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    Or openly support and give all advance nuke technology to our Pakistan friends :peep: We will unite and they will cry including china.

    But on serious note i do wish we conduct a nuke test openly and invite sanctions as that will help inland R&D :p
     
  19. roma

    roma NRI in Europe Senior Member

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    seriously , this is the voice of reason and it could be what got india thus far ( as suggested by the post quoted ) .... it is a delicate balancing act ...where we have to be reasonable and at the same time not get taken for granted ... i hope my other posts on this topic reflect the same need for balance ...i did say goodcop/ badcop role with the usa ..... i could have better expressed the idea as a need for a balance as stated here above.
     
  20. olivers

    olivers Regular Member

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    India does not need uranium from outside of India for the nuclear weapons program. Uranium in India being freed for the weapons program is also hogwash. Our uranium resource are enough to support the entire PHWR line which has so far given us fissile material to make a 1000 bombs if we so choose. How many more will it produce in another 50 years? The very reason why we have a Uranium economy today as opposed to a thorium economy was the fact that Uranium economy also subsidized the nuclear weapons ambitions of USA, USSR, UK, France and China. Thorium was considered and discarded by the US due to lack of military potential and early problems in handling u-232 waste products. Difficulty in storing weapons near men with such compounds. The reality today will be vastly different for a u-233 bomb for USA. We also tested a u-233 sub kiloton device.

    The Indo-US deal is a cap on the number of reactors outside safeguards. The best nuclear weapons arsenal program is one which produces electricity and as a side effect produces nuclear weapons. This is how the rest of the world did it. This is the US program and why there are no new nuclear reactors after 1980 in US.

    Indian attraction to the nuclear deal are largely on two accounts, expanding the uranium imports for the civil program to reach 50 GW of power to move into the third stage thorium program. Thorium in thermal breeders requires 50 years to double. So for a Thorium economy we need a huge stockpile of u-233. This requires 10 GW of PHWR and 40 GW of FBR. Once we get here there will be enough u-233 fissile material to create as many Thorium reactors as we like. In the mean time while the material breeds in the FBR there will be a decade gap in our program. It take 10 years for our FBR to breed. (The one which will really be a fast breeder. The current FBR does not have an impressive fuel mix, which will be tested once the safety aspects are tested on a conservative fuel bundle). This brings us to the second attraction for our nuclear deal. Metallurgy and obviously fuel rods which France has experimented with in the past for Fast breeders. The ones which double in 10 instead of 22 years for the FBR.

    There is a proverbial third carrot, the deal clincher, in term of the nuclear deal. This was ENR technology. This enrichment technology was sought not to aid the military fissile program but the civil program. The west assume this will help India increase it's nuclear weapons rapidly by copying the designs to our military enrichment plants. The interest in ENR stems from not nuclear weapons stockpiles. We are ready to sign the Fissile Material cut off treaty post negotiations. Our fissile material is present in sufficient quantity. It's a byproduct of Indian three stage program. Our fissile material declaration will be among the largest in the world. So It's not a problem for us. The number of weapons we make will be a political decision, the fissile material is there to give us the second largest or third largest nuclear weapons program if we decide to do so.

    As far the concerns on fissile material enrichment and the lack thereof and the estimates of how many weapons India has. No one knows. There are multiple reason for this. India has tested FBF designs with reactor grade fuel which can be scaled up to 200 to 300kt. This is also backed by our cheap tritium production ability again a byproduct of civil nuclear operations whereas the rest of the world had to invest billions to get their stockpile which has a half life of less than 20 years and needs to be replenished every 12 or 15 years which is different from the half life.(It will become half in x years but needs to be replaced slightly sooner or later than the half life.)

    There is also the weapons capability on the u-233 weapons which we are interested in. No-one knows if we have succeeded in producing u-233 without u-232. This is a requirement for our third stage breeder reactors. So I will bet my bottom dollar we worked on this for years. No outside source can confirm or deny this. So how many weapons do we have which have u-233 given that at the moment we don't even have a third stage reactor in commercial use and a decent stockpile of u-233.

    The numbers of nuclear weapons of India are always quoted based on some rare earth plant in Karnataka. It's just specious. It's probably only used for the nuclear submarine project. Our weapons enrichment is taking place elsewhere for the weapons which need enrichment. FBF's fielded today probably have very little enrichment focus.

    The key take away is our weapons reflect how much we are ready to spend. I will suggest we will keep it as economical as possible. We may have 1000 weapons on short notice or just a few 100 assembled weapons as we are quoted as possessing.

    Notice the ENR technology will accelerate our path to the third stage of the nuclear program by helping us get more FBR reactor online faster. There is a new plant outside safeguards in Karnataka which is going to be used largely for our civil nuclear program when it's built up in a few years.

    We were back-stabbed on the nuclear deal. We have been denied ENR in 2011 NSG. The idea in 2008 was to prevent India from getting better weapons by blocking tests. The US cap India plans backfired when India stated fielding FBF's with cheap tritium with 300kt yield. Then they decided to cap us with ENR. Again a wrong thrust. The ENR cap is more of a cap on civil program becoming self sufficient through a third stage boot up by 2030 instead of 2050. If the civil program is self sufficient there is noting to stop India from being a formidable power with no string attached even earlier than 2050.

    The curx:
    2008 Deal--- Cap by preventing test: Absolute failure as shown by FBF's. Thermonukes will be fielded later when our enrichment capacity can be expanded at a cheaper cost. For now FBF's will do. We will reserve the thermonuke of 200kg design for global deterrence. With these FBF's we have a good deterrence. We don't have a good global deterrence. We however have global deterrence as well with FBF.

    2011 ENR Cap: Cap by tying India to NSG lobby through Uranium supply linkages on Foreign reactors. If you test we will cut off your fuel.

    Here comes the kicker of it all. This ENR cap will force India to project power in a decade. It will be forced to project power globally to prevent economic threats to fuel supply cutoffs.

    Of course there will be nuclear tests in the future. The Indian Civil-Nuclear deal is dead. We where cheated by US. It will be discarded at the appropriate time. Just wait and watch all our imports are from France and Russia only. Even they went back on ENR under US threats. (I have read all the news reports on French and Russian ENR supply, those are hogwash. The only possibility is if these are secret arrangements with France and Russia on this. I have also read the statement by French atomic energy chief, parroting the words of the french ambassador. The sad conclusion after all of this is that there is a ENR denial in place. The ruling party for obvious reasons isn't tom tomming about this in the media. It's been buried for now. It will come up when the civil nuclear liability bill is discussed. So the bill is not being discussed in the parliament. Exteremely convenient co-incidence. Read the three reports on ENR in 2011 from Time of India. The ENR denial was first from US. Then the final article reads we hope France and Russia will stand by their commitments. Then there i an assertion on our own ENR capability being sufficient. )

    To recap our ENR is good enough for the nuclear submarine and the limited enrichment capacity needed on our FBF weapons. However it's not sufficient for our enrichment capacity required for a third stage transition. It's simply not industrial scale technology right now for the civil program. We don't want to waste our money on a civil only industrial plant and don't need such a big military facility ever. To recap our weapons program will not move faster or slower with the enrichment technology from outside of India. It will move as fast as it is moving now.

    If we are planning on using u-233 weapon on a large scale we may never need to enrich uranium or whatever anium. The same goes for FBF reactor-grade fuel weapons which have low enrichment figures.

    So we really have no idea what BARC holds. It's a complete mystery. It's also possibly equally brilliant in terms of the nuclear weapons designs. The designs may be ones which the rest of the world doesn't have in it's arsenal. (I don't mean in terms of yield or technology. The others can design these weapons, but they may not make economic sense to them) I mean like FBF 300kt. It's cheap for India and extremely expensive for the rest of the world. Right of center weapons I call them. U-233 weapons etc.

    All these denial and cat and mouse game are largely due to misconceptions on Indian weapons designs and the US belief in some quarters however misplaced that they can cap India. It's a dangerous game. One I believe will not work in 30 year time. One which may not even work in 10 years time with the right government.
     
    Last edited: May 15, 2012
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  21. panduranghari

    panduranghari Senior Member Senior Member

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    Great post Olivers.
     

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