'India's purchasing power to be 3rd largest in 2015'

Discussion in 'Economy & Infrastructure' started by LETHALFORCE, Apr 23, 2011.

  1. LETHALFORCE

    LETHALFORCE Moderator Moderator

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    http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/...e-3rd-largest-in-2015/articleshow/8060483.cms

    VADODARA: In 2015, purchasing power of Indians will be six trillion dollars, which will be third largest after United States and China. This is what Dr Jagdish Sheth, a renowned scholar and a marketing expert said here.

    Sheth, who is a Charles H Kellstadt professor of marketing at US-based Emory University's Goizueta business school, was in the city on Friday where he attended three programmes.

    The Management Students Forum of M S University's Faculty of Management Studies had organised 'India 2020-symposium on economic development' where Sheth spoke on the topic of 'India-The decade of destination'. At the Federation of Gujarat Industries ( FGI), Sheth spoke on 'Role of India in world class manufacturing' and he also addressed 'Innovation conclave 2011' of the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII).

    "After 2020, India's economic development will be close to that of China as China will have more ageing population while India on the other hand will have more young population. The demand of economy in India will be such that the government will have to reform itself," said Sheth, adding that outsourcing of household works has promoted consumer economy in India.

    "When consumer economy develops, the overall economy also develops. India is witnessing a similar trend of what had happened in US where consumer economy had developed and a new middle class was created," he said.

    Sheth however pointed out that an Egypt-type revolution is possible in India as well - sooner or later. "The benefits of economic developments should reach to the poorest in order to increase their purchasing power. With economic development, expectations of people have also increased. Government is presently becoming problem instead of solution for the common man. In such a scenario, a single spark is enough to blow up the whole situation and rapid corruption might just work as a trigger," said Sheth, adding that there is a need for responsible capitalism and while creation of wealth is necessary, its equal distribution is more important.
     
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  3. Blackwater

    Blackwater Veteran Member Veteran Member

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    what about pakistan? They have the highest purchasing power.
     
  4. civfanatic

    civfanatic Retired Moderator

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    It will be the third largest by 2012, not 2015.

    We are set to surpass Japan sooner than anticipated.
     
  5. p2prada

    p2prada Stars and Ambassadors Stars and Ambassadors

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    He did not say the PPP will be 3rd largest in 2015, it is the article headline which says that.

    He only said PPP will be $6Trillion in 2015. Considering PPP value of Japan is $4.3T this year, we will obviously over take them in that measure in 2 years.
     
  6. Armand2REP

    Armand2REP CHINI EXPERT Veteran Member

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    At the rate of Japonais decline, France will overtake them soon enough. :pound:
     
  7. Energon

    Energon DFI stars Stars and Ambassadors

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    I have honestly never understood the perennial obsession with 'ranks'. No article addressing any advancement in India is complete without some silly assessment through ranks. Don't get me wrong, rankings certainly factor in competitiveness, which is a must for any society to advance. However in India, ranking is the be all and end all of any field in life and worst of all, it comes at the cost of success.

    The fact that there is good competitiveness and bad competitiveness has escaped the society altogether. Competition is always set to attain a goal; however not every goal is the same. For instance, ranking systems in sports, a virtual replacement for war without any direct effect upon social well being- is centered around a singular champion (individual or team). However all fields that actually/physically matter to the day to day lives of people are anything but singular. Education, development, financial growth, etc etc are all limitless fields requiring constant expansion, and it is impossible to straight jacket any of these things into a solidified ranking structure. Furthermore ranking is a quantitative system of assessment which does not take into account the qualitative factor. The latter is merely assumed. But it is blatantly obvious that quality is far, far more relevant to real life.

    Measuring self worth through rankings was a Soviet obsession meant to compete with the West. With a history of caste system and colonialism (where the #1s were always selected to serve the colonists) it is understandable why this practice caught on in a big way in India. However the outcome of the high Soviet ranks amounted to nothing more than a cataclysmic collapse. Hence it is patently stupid to persist with this obsession, especially after experiencing the detrimental effects of this behavior within the Indian society itself.

    Who cares if India is the 3rd (it is always accepted that India will never be the first; but second or third is awesome) in development indices if the ground reality is utter crap? Anyone who travels is well aware that India is still and will remain very much a third world country unless there are some serious changes. The Japanese may be overtaken in this ranking, but their quality of life, industrial capacity and human development is far, far ahead of India's and will continue to be that way.

    I think it's about time the youth of India unburden themselves of these archaic chains and concentrate upon the ultimate goal- true development.

    PS>
    If anyone likes this post please press the thank you button, I currently have a poor rank on this forum and my mom said she will not allow me back into the house until I turn this around.
     
    Last edited: Apr 27, 2011
    hit&run and SHASH2K2 like this.
  8. pi314159

    pi314159 Guest

    ^^ Talking about sports, countries like Japan, Korea, China, when their economy take off, so do their sports. Their Olympic medal ranking moved up accordingly. India’s sport and her economy appears out of sync, at least so far. Any explanation/theory? India won her first gold medal, and the only one, in Beijing Olympics game since reform started 20 years ago, it will be interesting to watch how India perform in the coming London game, is that gold medal just a ‘random fluctuation’, or the beginning of catch-up?
     
  9. pmaitra

    pmaitra Moderator Moderator

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    Done anyone has any information on the estimated per capital purchasing power of Indians around 2015?
     
  10. p2prada

    p2prada Stars and Ambassadors Stars and Ambassadors

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    Per capita, calculate at a growth of 7% for 4 years. You will get your per capita in 2015.
     
  11. pmaitra

    pmaitra Moderator Moderator

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    Thanks.

    So what I got was $3814.47 per capita purchasing power in 2015. Not sure what to say about this, assuming I did not make any mistakes.
     
  12. Rage

    Rage DFI TEAM Stars and Ambassadors

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    Estimating per-capita GDP at a nominal R. 54527 for 2010-11 and compounding at a conservative real rate of growth of ~8% for the next four years, will yield you R. 74183 or $1,686 (Ex. Rate $1=R.44, the dollar has been relatively stable at around $1=R.44.3 for the greater part this quarter) in 2010-11 prices (or 2010-11 dollar prices) - (that is, not accounting for inflation and calculating at a real GDP growth of 8% will give you a real increase of R. 19,656 per capita by 2015). But India calculates at factor cost, so real GDP is typically understated and therefore growth in real GDP, as measured by market prices, will often be in the region of 3-4% higher per anum (extrapolating that, at a 10% real GDP growth rate, at market prices, for 2015 gets you R.79,832 in 2010-11 market prices). Nominal GDP growth will, of course, be much higher. This year, nominal GDP grew at 17.3% year on year, much of it due to inflation. That of course is not expected to last, but were you to compute nominal growth at a much more plausible 14% for the three years (meaning at 6% rate of inflation) you'd arrive at R.92,093 ($2,093 at $1=R.44) in 2015 prices.
     
    Last edited: Apr 28, 2011
  13. p2prada

    p2prada Stars and Ambassadors Stars and Ambassadors

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    Deleted..............................
     
  14. Energon

    Energon DFI stars Stars and Ambassadors

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    Chinese sports are almost entirely managed by the government, and with an iron fist nonetheless. In China's case it's pure determination.

    Having said that sporting excellence and economy certainly share a relationship, but by no means a direct one as clearly evinced by impoverished former Soviet states like Romania. Economic development brings about better infrastructure and most of all confidence which allows people to pursue sports.

    India for whatever reasons (I'm sure a very complex set) has a poor sporting culture and it will take some time to change this around. There is no reason why India can't participate in competitive sports on a global scale. It's going to take time though
     
  15. Godless-Kafir

    Godless-Kafir DFI Buddha Senior Member

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    deleted.............
     
    Last edited: Apr 29, 2011
  16. pi314159

    pi314159 Guest

    ^^ Sports excellence and economy can be out of sync, or no relationship at all, the former Soviet bloc has proved it, as you mentioned, and the reason for this is as you said. On the other hand Japan and Korea have shown positive correlation between sports and economy, that is quite logical and easy to understand. It seems to me that sport excellence is a necessary, clearly not sufficient, indicator of economy excellence. That is why India’s case is so interesting. Put it this way, if you treat, say, top 10 PPP counties as black boxes and check their Olympics ranking, I am sure India will catch your eye as an anomaly and you will ask why.
     
  17. hit&run

    hit&run Elite Member Elite Member

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    For your Information India has won the cricket world cup and is like a super power for all cricketing nations. Indian cricket league are spending money, buying players at par with many European football leagues. India is out performing all in Badminton, shooting etc.

    Better economy does play a role but it all depends upon kind of sport culture one society inculcate. We Indian are famous for being good doctors, Engineers and IT ians, management gurus for 30-40 odd years. Those were/are still the only luring professions to earn money and to lift from poverty very fast.

    India started earning wealth like any true open economy from mid 90's onwards. I think your criticism is valid but premature to the date when India be effectively able to distribute more resources to uplift sports culture and start witnessing the results (Gold medals). I can asure you that the stress on sports is pretty high by all stake holders including schools. One must have patience to see the results in next few years. The signs and vibes are coming good if one compare India's performance in common wealth or Asian and few world championships. Last but not least at the end of the day playing a sport is a personal choice in India.
     
  18. pi314159

    pi314159 Guest

    I am not criticising anything, just curious on this phenomenon. Your post suggests it is because of culture, it must be. I believe your sports ranking will eventually catch up as your economy advances, otherwise it would be really strange.
     
  19. Shredder

    Shredder Regular Member

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    With all the importance and following only for Cricket our sporting situation will remain the same, just because these damn cricketers won a World Cup, crores of the taxpayers money is being given to them and the best part is people don't even care and are even quite happy about it!

    Even news channels aren't questioning why the central and state governments is giving such incentives to cricketers while other athletes/sports persons are treated very shabbily.

    Olympic football team asked to pay for dinner bill
    http://www.allvoices.com/contribute...ympics-football-team-asked-to-pay-dinner-bill
     
  20. SHASH2K2

    SHASH2K2 New Member

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    India's middle class population to rise, key driver for Asia's rise by 2050


    NEW DELHI: Nearly 70% of India's population could be middle class within 15 years if the country's economy posts sustained growth, a report by the Manila-based Asian Development has said.

    These structural shifts in the pattern of global demand mean that Asia's growth can rely increasingly on the markets of developing Asia rather than those of Europe, Japan or North America, the report said.

    If Asian middle class consumers can substitute for those in advanced economies, the Asian countries will become major exporters to each other, emulating Europe. European countries are significant exporters, but largely to each other, with Eurozone exports growing 4.5% a year since 20005, notwithstanding the recent recession. Similarly, all Asian countries could benefit from rapid intra-regional growth without excessive reliance on the consumer markets of Europe or North America.

    "Today, India has a tiny middle class by global standards. But if it continues its growth, 70% of the Indian population could be middle class within 15 years," the ADB the report said.

    The Indian economy, Asia's third-largest has been growing above 8% and has contributed significantly to rising prosperity. The rapid economic expansion has also attracted the attention of global companies and investors, many of whom have set up shop in the country.

    The ADB report says that Asia rise will be led by China, India, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, and Thailand.

    By 2050 their share in population is expected to fall to 73% of Asia, while the share of GDP rises to 90%. These seven economies alone will account for 45% of global GDP. Their average per capita income of $45,800 (purchasing power parity) would be 25% higher than the global average of $36,600. In 2010 these seven economies had a combined total population of 3.1 billion (78% of Asia) and a GDP of $14.2 trillion (87%of Asia).
     

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