India's nuclear arsenal failed by 'unreliable' missiles

Discussion in 'Strategic Forces' started by Singh, Sep 4, 2012.

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  1. Singh

    Singh Phat Cat Administrator

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    The most authoritative non-governmental assessment of world nuclear forces has revealed that India's nuclear capabilities are seriously lagging behind those of its putative adversaries, Pakistan and China. The evaluation by Hans M. Kristensen and Robert S. Norris in the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists called "Indian nuclear forces, 2012", reveals that for New Delhi, the principal means of weapons delivery remains fixed-wing aircraft like the Mirage-2000 and the Jaguar.

    [​IMG]


    Unlike Pakistan and China which have substantial deployed missile arsenals, India's missile force is lagging, despite the test-launch of the Agni V in 2012. As the Bulletin notes, "the Agni I and Agni II , despite being declared operational, both have reliability issues that have delayed their full operational service".
    The other missiles in the Agni series - the Agni III, IV and V - all remain under development. Indeed, the report notes that "the bulk of the Indian ballistic missile force is comprised of three versions of Prithvi missiles, but only one of these versions, the army's Prithvi I, has a nuclear role".

    Considering that the lumbering Prithvi I requires hours to get ready for launch and has a range of just 150 km, it indicates that the Indian nuclear weapons capability is short-legged indeed.

    Nevertheless, the Bulletin notes, the development of the Agni V has introduced "a new dynamic into the already complex triangular security relationship between India, Pakistan and China".

    Lt Gen (retd) V.R. Raghavan, advisor with the Delhi Policy Group, does not agree with the Bulletin analysis fully. According to him, "The Agni I is operational and tested, and Agni II and III are almost there and all three can be used if necessary."

    According to him, the lack of authoritative information on India's capability "is part of our posture of ambiguity" on matters nuclear.

    But Admiral Arun Prakash, former navy chief and chairman Chiefs of Staff Committee, has another view. "We have to rely on the word of our DRDO/DAE scientists as far as performance, reliability, accuracy and yield of missiles and nuclear warheads are concerned. Unfortunately, hyperbolic claims coupled with dissonance within the ranks of our scientists have eroded their credibility," he said.

    As of now, according to the Bulletin, "we estimate that India has produced 80-100 nuclear warheads". In the case of Pakistan, whose evaluation was done in 2011, the Bulletin analysis has said that "it has the world's fastest-growing nuclear stockpile", estimating that Pakistan "has 90-110 nuclear weapons".

    The Pakistani arsenal, too, consists of mainly aircraftdropped bombs, but with its Chinese-supplied missiles, it has a deployed arsenal of missiles like the Ghaznavi, Shaheen I and Ghauri and is developing longer-range missiles.

    Significantly, Pakistan's Indiaspecific arsenal comprises of the Nasr short-range (70 km) ballistic missile, which can use nuclear weapons to take out troop formations and Pakistan is in the advanced stage of developing two cruise missiles - the Babur and the Raad.

    If this is dismaying for New Delhi, the comparison with China is positively alarming. Beijing has an arsenal of 240 or so warheads and it is adding to this number, though not at the pace Pakistan is. Its nuclear weapons are primarily delivered through a mature missile arsenal with ranges from 2,000-11,000 km.

    A large number of Chinese missiles, including their cruise missiles, are primarily for use in nonnuclear conventional battle role. Raghavan acknowledges that "China is a different kettle of fish", but he says even so, with the Agni V test, "India's progress has been commendable".

    But the really big difference between India and China arises from the fact that India's thermonuclear weapon capability is suspect. A Mail Today report (August 27, 2009) had cited K. Santhanam, the DRDO scientist who ran the country's nuclear programme at the time of the Pokhran tests, to say that the single thermonuclear test carried out at the time was a "fizzle".

    Responsibility for this state of affairs rests with the government. According to Admiral Prakash, "India's National Command Authority (NCA) not only meets infrequently, but is loath to take decisions when it does. This has an adverse impact on decision-making, financial approvals and production-rate of missiles/warheads".

    He says that the management of our deterrent "by a sub-optimal troika consisting of scientists (in the driving seat), bureaucrats and soldiers" is also a debilitating factor.


    India's nuclear arsenal failed by 'unreliable' missiles — indiatoday.intoday.in — Readability
     
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  3. Daredevil

    Daredevil On Vacation! Administrator

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    Another hack job. Indian missiles which are tested almost on regular basis with success are unreliable but Pakistani missiles that are tested once in a blue moon are reliable :rolleyes::rolleyes: I think they need their head checked up. They are also forgetting Brahmos from the equation which has been tested at least 20-30 times.

    And the claims by Santhanam is smoke and mirrors for wanting to test better designed nukes before signing the CTBT.
     
  4. steel

    steel Regular Member

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    I think this author visits to much of PDF :troll:
     
  5. ice berg

    ice berg Senior Member Senior Member

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    Another cold shower for our DFI pundits. :rofl:
     
  6. Yusuf

    Yusuf GUARDIAN Administrator

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    The moment I read Hans Kristensen i stopped readin further and started to write this.

    Another try by them to see if Indians speak out in denying their claim and spillin the beans.

    Yeah india has pathetic missiles and we have dud nukes. Good. Stay under that assumption. Suits india just fine.
     
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  7. ice berg

    ice berg Senior Member Senior Member

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    But Admiral Arun Prakash, former navy chief and chairman Chiefs of Staff Committee, has another view. "We have to rely on the word of our DRDO/DAE scientists as far as performance, reliability, accuracy and yield of missiles and nuclear warheads are concerned. Unfortunately, hyperbolic claims coupled with dissonance within the ranks of our scientists have eroded their credibility," he said.

    The words of your former navy chief and chairman of Staff Committee. Dont shoot the messenger.
     
  8. sayareakd

    sayareakd Moderator Moderator

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    good excuse for testing, A6,7 & 8 etc, plus we dont have good missiles so we need BMD. Just send this massage to all.
     
  9. sayareakd

    sayareakd Moderator Moderator

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    when we test our missile prior notification is given, which means other can moniter what is going on at launch pad, for this very reason, final seconds of agni missile exploding was shown. A5 was watched and track by all.
     
  10. Daredevil

    Daredevil On Vacation! Administrator

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    Obviously the armed forces have to rely on the word of DRDO. And these missiles undergo user's trials from time to time. Also Admiral Arun Prakash is from Navy which doesn't use any of the nuke delivering missiles as of now. So, he is in no position to comment on Prithvi and Agni missiles which are used by Army.
     
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  11. LETHALFORCE

    LETHALFORCE Moderator Moderator

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    India can send a rocket to the moon and the missiles are unreliable -another BS article.
    Every article for years has to estimate how many warheads India has -nobody has a clue
    and the idiot is writing an article with unknown facts.
     
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  12. LETHALFORCE

    LETHALFORCE Moderator Moderator

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    Suspicious timing of this article during Chinese defense minister's visit.
     
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  13. ice berg

    ice berg Senior Member Senior Member

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    So the Chairman Chiefs of Staff Committee in India dont know about nukes. Thanks for classify. :p
     
  14. LETHALFORCE

    LETHALFORCE Moderator Moderator

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    No need to prove anything, Countries that don't have working missiles do not have
    a nuclear triad.
     
  15. Jim Street

    Jim Street Regular Member

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    Is there anything which is not failing? :confused:
     
  16. LETHALFORCE

    LETHALFORCE Moderator Moderator

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  17. Jim Street

    Jim Street Regular Member

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    They said Chinese missiles to Pakistan. Chinese developed these, did the tests and gave it to Pakistan which conducted few tests to show that they have developed one. I mean if they developed all by themselves in such a short span of time, then they have very effective system, better than countries like US, Russia etc.

    OT. Does Pakistan has Super Computer and if they do, what is its processing speed in flops. ?
     
    Last edited: Sep 4, 2012
  18. sayareakd

    sayareakd Moderator Moderator

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    With due respect to him, he has to be at the target site to understand the impact, probably he forget the part where user tests the missile after induction. What next demand for imported missile and then imported generals.
     
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  19. LETHALFORCE

    LETHALFORCE Moderator Moderator

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    The only reason a Navy man is making the claim is to justify the SLBM test coming soon

    http://drdo.gov.in/drdo/pub/nl/2011/NLMay2011.pdf

    India developing 6000 km range Agni-6 SLBM with MIRV
     
    Last edited: Sep 4, 2012
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  20. huaxia rox

    huaxia rox Senior Member Senior Member

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    India behind China, Pakistan in missiles race; Agni unreliable: Report

    India behind China, Pakistan in missiles race; Agni unreliable: Report - India News - IBNLive

    New Delhi: With only 80-100 nuclear warheads as opposed to China's 240 and Pakistan's 90-110, India's military preparedness is not upto the mark. A report by the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists says that India's missile force too is lagging behind both Pakistan and China. The report also points out that despite being operational, the 700-km range Agni-I and Agni-II, capable of hitting targets upto 2000 kms, are unreliable.

    According to the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists a majority of India's missiles like Agni-III, IV and V are still under development. India had successfully tested its latest nuclear capable surface-to-surface Inter-Continental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) missile Agni-V in April. Agni-V with 5000-km range and capable of carrying multiple nuclear warheads catapulted India into an extremely select club of countries possessing such a deadly weapons platform.

    Although Agni-V along with nuclear attack submarine the Akula II class Nerpa rechristened INS Chakra and Sukhoi-30 MKI air superiority fighter give India the much-needed muscle and a strong deterrence against its nuclear-armed adversaries, but both Pakistan and China are way ahead in the arms race. But Agni-V will need several more tests to be declared operational.

    The bulk of the Indian ballistic missile force consists of three versions of Prithvi missiles, but only one of these versions, the Army's Prithvi I, has a nuclear role. Given its small size (9 meters long and 1 meter in diameter), the Prithvi I is difficult to spot on satellite images, and therefore little is known about its deployment locations. The Prithvi I is a short-range missile (up to 150 kms) and is the mainstay of the Strategic Forces Command, according to the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists.

    The induction of INS Chakra, the impending sea trials of the indigenous nuclear submarine INS Arihant that will be armed with torpedoes and the 700-km range nuclear K-15 submarine-launched ballistic missiles, the shortlisting of the Rafale for Indian Air Force’s (IAF) 126 Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA), induction of two squadrons of the front-line Sukhoi-30 MKI fighter jets in the North East at the Tezpur and the Chabua air bases are just some of the moves the government and defence forces have taken to counter the Chinese threat.

    India will have an assured second strike capability once Agni-V and INS Arihant become operational as the country has already a declared policy of no first use of nuclear weapons. INS Arihant will complete the crucial third leg of nuclear triad as a nuclear-powered submarine can stay underwater for a very long duration, remain undetected and file a submarine launched nuclear missile.
     
  21. LETHALFORCE

    LETHALFORCE Moderator Moderator

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    Funny how the K-5, -6,000 KM ,AGNI 6, and 3 nuclear capable cruise missiles are not mentioned.
    But if they think India needs another Platform then it is a welcome development.
     
    Last edited: Sep 5, 2012
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