India's Israeli-Arab tightrope walk

ejazr

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My analysis above depicts a doomsday scenario, won't happen. India is not stupid enough to initiate attack on a islam country, and pakistan's generals are of course more focused on fighting the militants.

However, radical islam elements will infiltrate india like viruses, and in time cause havoc on the sub-continent.
Some flawed assumptions in your analysis I would like to address.

(1) India has not till date launched a war of aggression against Pakistan. If anything it has always maintained restraint. Even in 1971 which could be regarded as an aggressive war, the Muslim world was horrified at what the Pakistani army had done to its fellow citizens and Muslim Bengalis.So in a future war, Pakistan will be most likely on its own with possibly diplomatic support from countries on urging the end of the war. The Kargil war and Mumbai attacks was another example where the Arab world including Saudi Arabia sided with the Indian point of view. As long as GoI doesn't do any stupid thing like launchig a reverse Kargil e.t.c. I dont' see any adverse reaction from any countries except possibly the US,UK,China who would try to stop any retaliation from India.

(2) Recently Saudi Arabia and Iran both have signed agreements of providing guaranteed oil arrangements as well as the establishment of a strategic reserve in the future for 1 month of crude oil. Its true that India despite having an initial head start has lagged behind China in their relations so much so that both countries have bigger trade relations than India as well as some defense relations.If you noticed I used the words "had a leg up". Even today the goodwill generated under Nehru and Indira carries forward in countries like Iraq, Egypt and Palestine to this day. But recent changes are in the right direction and the geographic, cultural and Indian diaspora relations can be a game changer if GoI wants to move in this direction. The GoI needs to wake up and re-establish its prominent position vis-a-vis China in the West Asia.

(3) The Indian Muslim population being subverted is a bogey that keeps getting raised by Pakistanis time to time, but the reality is that the way the Indian constitution has been formulated and the role of local religious leaders in fomenting loyalty to the state will nullify most if not all of its impact. Unlike for example in China which as a communist ideology is anti-Islamic at its basic core due to lack of religious freedom. Remember it was the USSR a communist country that was the target of muslim fanatics funded by the West (US)/Saudi Arabia and Pakistan as well as China to an extent.

So if anything the first country to experience a Soviet-Afghan style backlash would be China. And that again would only happen if you had some power like the US funding such groups. The 60 year old history of India is a testament that even during war times Muslim soldiers have fought against Pakistani army(in 48,65,71) without issues including the Jammu Kashmir Light infantry. The reason is very clear. The religious freedom enshrined in the constitution of India unlike China is a pact with the Muslims that according to eh Islamic faith requires Muslim to be loyal to the state and defend it against aggression even if they are Muslims. I can give you more details on this as you seem uninformed on this aspect if need. The large Indian Muslim population has and can be an asset to counter any negative propaganda among the Muslim world while China lacks this.

Ofcourse you still might have misguided Pakistanis like in Mumbai infiltrating and causing havoc but they wont be asking for visas. These are plain terrorists and crime syndicates that should be treated as such without giving it a broad religious label. For example, Indians contribute to 15% of the world Muslim population, still you will hardly find anyone in AQ or related organisations. If you look at the composition of nationalities in the tribal areas you will see arabs, Chechens, Uzbeks, Uighurs from China but not a single Indian till date. Since 2004, some of the the worlds largest conferences on anti-terrorism were held across India by Muslims were people around the world including Muslim scholars from Arab countries attended and supported. Unfortunately most of the news and views related to this is either in the Arabic or Urdu press which is less widely read outside the Muslim population and hence many people might be unaware of it.

The main problem is the nexus of ISI/PA supporting these groups that is the issue. These groups were strengthened as a result of the Soviet-Afghan war to fight the USSR. Now these same groups have backfired on Pakistan/US/Saudi Arabia and even China to an extent. If such massive funding and training had not gone into these proxy armies, then these same extremists would be nothing more than a nuisance.

and

(4) the biggest flawed assumption is Pakistan is an "Islam country" or whatever that means. Infact, neither the Pakistani liberals nor the other religious fanatics themselves consider Pakistan a true Islamic country themselves. India will not initiate an attack if you look at the historical patterns, but the retaliation if for example in case of another mumbai style attack will be swift and possibly catastrophic(if nuclear) for Pakistan and to an lesser extent to India as well. China and US the two biggest benefactors of Pakistan might try to prevent it but I doubt they would succeed.
 
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