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79% of India's combat aircraft squadrons and 96% of its main battle tanks are Soviet-design, legacy New Delhi's close relationship with Moscow in the 1970s and 1980s.
September 2014, the IAF slashed prospective orders from 10 squadrons (around 220 aircraft) to 6-7 (126- 147 aircraft) in August 2015, to just three (63 aircraft) – in total, a 70% drop in numbers for what is supposed to be apex of Indian power in 2030s
just as confusing at the middle end of the spectrum. India had planned to buy 126 French Rafale But that deal dramatically changed shape in April 2015, buy just 36 Rafale in flyaway condition,
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trouble at the lower end too. Two squadrons of the Tejas are scheduled to arrive before 2020, and four squadrons of a higher-end Tejas Mark II in the mid 2020s.
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Put three issues together, and the scale becomes apparent. The IAF operates around 37 combat squadrons, expected to fall 32 to 35 by the end of the year. Its 'sanctioned strength' was supposed to be 42 combat squadrons by 2022. On present trends, this looks to me to be entirely unattainable. And after that point, India will start losing its dedicated ground attack aircraft (5 MiG-27 and 7 Jaguar squadrons). The IAF has shown little interest in procuring dedicated replacements for the strike role, suggesting that multi-role aircraft like the Su-30MKI and Rafale will have to take up the
In his 2011 report on the MMRCA deal, Dogfight, American analyst Ashley Tellis suggested that, 'in terms of raw numbers alone, the IAF must plan on confronting by 2020 as many as 1,500 fourth-generation Pakistani and Chinese fighters'. Even if we generously assume that India can stay at 37 squadrons around that date, that would still be around half of that number of aircraft.
India's superiority over Pakistan in modern aircraft has fallen from 4:1 in the early 2000s to less than 2.5:1 today. That ratio is likely to fall further.
79% of India's combat aircraft squadrons and 96% of its main battle tanks are Soviet-design, legacy New Delhi's close relationship with Moscow in the 1970s and 1980s.
September 2014, the IAF slashed prospective orders from 10 squadrons (around 220 aircraft) to 6-7 (126- 147 aircraft) in August 2015, to just three (63 aircraft) – in total, a 70% drop in numbers for what is supposed to be apex of Indian power in 2030s
just as confusing at the middle end of the spectrum. India had planned to buy 126 French Rafale But that deal dramatically changed shape in April 2015, buy just 36 Rafale in flyaway condition,
--
trouble at the lower end too. Two squadrons of the Tejas are scheduled to arrive before 2020, and four squadrons of a higher-end Tejas Mark II in the mid 2020s.
--
Put three issues together, and the scale becomes apparent. The IAF operates around 37 combat squadrons, expected to fall 32 to 35 by the end of the year. Its 'sanctioned strength' was supposed to be 42 combat squadrons by 2022. On present trends, this looks to me to be entirely unattainable. And after that point, India will start losing its dedicated ground attack aircraft (5 MiG-27 and 7 Jaguar squadrons). The IAF has shown little interest in procuring dedicated replacements for the strike role, suggesting that multi-role aircraft like the Su-30MKI and Rafale will have to take up the
In his 2011 report on the MMRCA deal, Dogfight, American analyst Ashley Tellis suggested that, 'in terms of raw numbers alone, the IAF must plan on confronting by 2020 as many as 1,500 fourth-generation Pakistani and Chinese fighters'. Even if we generously assume that India can stay at 37 squadrons around that date, that would still be around half of that number of aircraft.
India's superiority over Pakistan in modern aircraft has fallen from 4:1 in the early 2000s to less than 2.5:1 today. That ratio is likely to fall further.
