India's growing stakes in South China Sea

[Galaxy]

I dont have any issue with BD under Hasina. They are as friendly as friendly can get without compromising their interests too or becoming overt puppets. But one or two sorties of Tupolevs over Anuradhapura will ease off some anger within us.

Bangladesh is not trustworthy. Also, Their Jamait-e-Islamic party and supporters have an eye on Lower Assam and border area of WB in future. It's only matter of time, BD will become Anti-Indian officially. Everyone knows this fact. But we are keeping her in good humour so that Pakistan don't play Pan Muslim card. Hopefully, for next 5-10 years we can keep her like that. After that by 2020, Our Defence modernization would be nearly complete. So it will not worry.

As far as SL is concerned. They don't have balls to face India. They will never take risk to deviate towards China as they know, It won't take more than few minutes to fill the sky above Colombo with smoke. We didn't said anything about LTTE as we need to keep her also in good humour. lol

Nepal, Bhutan are India's friend also 80% population of these 2 countries are pro-Indian. Myanmar most likely neutral.

 

[captonjohn]

i hope u r the pm of india.

Never hope about him to be pm of India because if he become then he'll do what he's saying. An tit for the tot only this is the way to deal with aggressive china. Arm Vietnam, develop military infrastructure just like you are doing in POK which is an Indian territory illegally occupied by Pakistan. Next is Taiwan, we may sell some subs and missile shield to Taiwan dude. keep watching.

 

[kickok1975]

I agree with you. As of NOW China has a slight air superiority due to its vast numbers.

But it may change with the deployment of Akash sam in large numbers in NE.

China doesn't want to have a conflict with India, no matter military superior or not.

 

[ejazr]

@Karthic Sri

Actually China is in no position to be militarily aggressive towards India either in this case. If it needs to be aggressive, its needs to be aggressive over Vietnam as it is this country that they have the dispute with. Besides, as per International Law, China is a on weak spot in any case.

Any hard armed tactics with Vietnam, especially after the event with Japan is bound to push other ASEAN countries which would be in India's interests. And the US is not going to be far away from this. Any military conflict with Vietnam on this issue is bound to bring in foreign powers and eventually curtail Chinese influence in the SCS. China would be stuck with making proclamations and announcements unless it comes to a quid pro quo with India to unilaterally call of the oil exploration. Until then, if they are smart, they won't do much.


Meanwhile, yesterday, US - Vietnamese defense policy dialouge was held.
Vietnam, US hold second defence policy dialogue - Related news - 9/20/2011 - Báo Dân Trí English

The second Vietnam-US defence policy dialogue took place in Washington on Sept. 19 under the co-chair of Vietnamese Deputy Defence Minister Lt. Gen. Nguyen Chi Vinh and US Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defence Robert Scher.

Deputy Defence Minister Lt. Gen. Nguyen Chi Vinh and US Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defence Robert Scher

At the dialogue, the two sides expressed satisfaction at the outcomes of bilateral defence cooperation over the recent past.

Both Vinh and Scher agreed on the need to make the Vietnam-US defence cooperation more practical in the interest of each country and for peace, stability and cooperation in the region and the world.

Lt. Gen. Vinh informed the US side about the results of the 11th National Congress of the Communist Party of Vietnam early this year while the US side announced its presence in the Asia-Pacific region.

On this occasion, Lt. Gen. Vinh and Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defence Robert Scher signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) on promoting cooperation between the two defence ministries which focuses on five priority fields in the immediate future.

They include the establishment of a regular high-ranking dialogue mechanism between the US Department of Defence and the Vietnamese Defence Ministry, sea security, search and rescue, studying and exchanging experience in the United Nations peace keeping activities, and humanitarian aid and disaster relief.

Lt. Gen. Vinh and the Vietnamese delegation also met with a number of US congressmen and leaders of the US Departments of States and Defence.

 

[KS]

Bangladesh is not trustworthy. Also, Their Jamait-e-Islamic party and supporters have an eye on Lower Assam and border area of WB in future. It's only matter of time, BD will become Anti-Indian officially. Everyone knows this fact. But we are keeping her in good humour so that Pakistan don't play Pan Muslim card. Hopefully, for next 5-10 years we can keep her like that. After that by 2020, Our Defence modernization would be nearly complete. So it will not worry.

As far as SL is concerned. They don't have balls to face India. They will never take risk to deviate towards China as they know, It won't take more than few minutes to fill the sky above Colombo with smoke. We didn't said anything about LTTE as we need to keep her also in good humour. lol

Nepal, Bhutan are India's friend also 80% population of these 2 countries are pro-Indian. Myanmar most likely neutral.

I said BD under Hasina. Why mention about the Jamati monkeys. Most of them are found only in "you-know-where". The Bangladeshis themselves dont have any sympathy for them.

There is no LTTE now to keep them in humour. That entity, which we could have cultivated as our puppet is gone. What remains is the chauvinist Sinhala Army as the only power centre in the island. They do not have the balls to face India alone but they have the effective blackmailing card of China/Pakistan and I would love GoI to call their bluff and show them their rightful place in South Asia - which is under the shadow of India.

 

[KS]

China doesn't want to have a conflict with India, no matter military superior or not.

China's actions in POK tells me something else. Ofcourse it does not want to have direct conflict since the advent of the Agnis..but the death by 1000 cuts.

If not getting into conflict with India is China's motive how can you explain the stapled visa, projects in POK etc etc ?

 

[Galaxy]

Capability gives Courage and Courage gives Confidence.

To be very frank, We never had capability to face China in full fledge war.

For last few years, Our economy is doing well. So, Now we are improving our defence. Still, we are behind.

10 years back, We didn't even had any Missile which can hit China's major cities. Once, We will be capable, automatically courage and confidence will also come. Now, we are on right path and it will be draw between India-China most likely.

We always have to assume, If India-China goes in war, Pakistan will take advantage. India-Pakistan mostly likely be 1-1.

 

[KS]

@Karthic Sri

Actually China is in no position to be militarily aggressive towards India either in this case. If it needs to be aggressive, its needs to be aggressive over Vietnam as it is this country that they have the dispute with. Besides, as per International Law, China is a on weak spot in any case.

Any hard armed tactics with Vietnam, especially after the event with Japan is bound to push other ASEAN countries which would be in India's interests. And the US is not going to be far away from this. Any military conflict with Vietnam on this issue is bound to bring in foreign powers and eventually curtail Chinese influence in the SCS. China would be stuck with making proclamations and announcements unless it comes to a quid pro quo with India to unilaterally call of the oil exploration. Until then, if they are smart, they won't do much.

The chinese will not become aggressive overtly.

They will just , as one poster said, harass the oil exploration and drilling vessels, cut down the cables and do such things as to make the whole venture unprofitable and not economically useful.

Will anyone go to war with them for cutting cables.? They have 1001 excuses to give in that case.

Our whole game is just bluff and is entirely dependent on US position on this. If US enters we win, if US does not we pack up.But I agree its a game with playing. And even if we decide to pack up we should not do it abruptly. It will damage the confidence the other countries have in India. We should do it in a way it does not seem as a panic reaction.

Having said that - I agree that there is a distinct chance of the other ASEAN countries becoming more paranoid of China and start looking for alliances elsewhere. But even that is again dependent on whether the US decides to join party or not.

 

[pmaitra]

China doesn't want to have a conflict with India, no matter military superior or not.

We don't want conflict with PRC either. We want oil, that is in the sea closer to Vietnam and further from PRC. That zone is well outside PRC's territorial waters, as per UN map. If you harm us, we will have no other option but to retaliate. Of course, we reserve the right to build our defences in Vietnam.

 

[Galaxy]

I said BD under Hasina. Why mention about the Jamati monkeys. Most of them are found only in "you-know-where". The Bangladeshis themselves dont have any sympathy for them.

There is no LTTE now to keep them in humour. That entity, which we could have cultivated as our puppet is gone. What remains is the chauvinist Sinhala Army as the only power centre in the island. They do not have the balls to face India alone but they have the effective blackmailing card of China/Pakistan and I would love GoI to call their bluff and show them their rightful place in South Asia - which is under the shadow of India.

I agree on SL. I never take SL seriously. They don't have ball to speak let alone will do anything.

But Bangladesh is different situation. May be Jamati monkey only gets around 3%-5% vote but most of the Bangladeshi are Anti-Indian. it's not only Jamait but there is sizeable population who are thinking such things and have an eye on N-E. There is also Pakistan Muslim card. We need to keep BD in our way as long as we can. As long as Hasina is there, No problem. But we have to think Bangladesh in long run. We will never have any threat from BD in war situation but we should be prepared if they do any misadventures against India. They are bunch of morons

 

[KS]

I agree on SL. I never take SL seriously. They don't have ball to speak let alone will do anything.

But Bangladesh is different situation. May be Jamati monkey only gets around 3%-5% vote but most of the Bangladeshi are Anti-Indian. it's not only Jamait but there is sizeable population who are thinking such things and have an eye on N-E. There is also Pakistan Muslim card. We need to keep BD in our way as long as we can. As long as Hasina is there, No problem. But we have to think Bangladesh in long run. We will never have any threat from BD in war situation but we should be prepared if they do any misadventures against India.

Dont worry about Bangladesh anyways.

Emit more carbon dioxide from your car/bike and hasten the process of BD going under sea

 

[Galaxy]

China doesn't want to have a conflict with India, no matter military superior or not.

Buy Why ??

What we will do with defence modernization ??

 

[pmaitra]

I agree on SL. I never take SL seriously. They don't have ball to speak let alone will do anything.

But Bangladesh is different situation. May be Jamati monkey only gets around 3%-5% vote but most of the Bangladeshi are Anti-Indian. it's not only Jamait but there is sizeable population who are thinking such things and have an eye on N-E. There is also Pakistan Muslim card. We need to keep BD in our way as long as we can. As long as Hasina is there, No problem. But we have to think Bangladesh in long run. We will never have any threat from BD in war situation but we should be prepared if they do any misadventures against India. They are bunch of morons

It is BNP that is the main problem. Jammat is a minor player that gets patronage from BNP.

 

[kickok1975]

We don't want conflict with PRC either. We want oil, that is in the sea closer to Vietnam and further from PRC. That zone is well outside PRC's territorial waters, as per UN map. If you harm us, we will have no other option but to retaliate. Of course, we reserve the right to build our defences in Vietnam.

We reserve our rights to defend our territories too. However, should a sea conflict erupt, I would imagine it will be against Vietnam Navy and ports since they are the host and need be punished, Indian company will be spared. But that scenario may never happen because Vietnam rely too much on China that China has other unmilitary means to pressure them.

 

[sesha_maruthi27]

Think whatever the Chinese lay their hand upon becomes their own property...........

 

[Galaxy]

It is BNP that is the main problem. Jammat is a minor player that gets patronage from BNP.

BNP + Jammat have alliance. There are already 10-20 Millions Illegal Bangladeshi in India. Bangladeshi intention is not good which i observed in last couple of year on different forums. They openly says Once Muslim population will become more than 50% in lower Assam, we will take back. I know, It's not possible even if it reaches 75% but we have to be alert with such morons. I am sure, They will try some insurgency in future as their blood is same like Pakistani. They also oppose why we killing at border when they cross border illegally. On one side, They hate India and on another side, They come to India to increase slum. This is the story. Known enemy is better than unknown.

We need to build fence 20 feet high with electricity and also prepare for this unknown threat. it won't have any major problem, But i feel they will try something sometime in future 5 years or 15 years. That's anyone guess !!

 

[pmaitra]

We reserve our rights to defend our territories too. However, should a sea conflict erupt, I would imagine it will be against Vietnam Navy and ports since they are the host and need be punished, Indian company will be spared. But that scenario may never happen because Vietnam rely too much on China that China has other unmilitary means to pressure them.

I think we should claim that Beijing is Indian territory and reserve our right to liberate it from PRC. LOL.

KickOk1975, please see the map again. Your claimed territorial waters are bordering on the coast of Malaysia and Philipines. Are your foreign policy guys on opium or what? You need another Boxer Revolution. Please be pragmatic. Right now you are sounding rather juvenile.

It's not going to happen 2 more blocks have been bought for exploration for a total of 3 blocks so far

Below in blue is UN recognized Vietnamese waters Red is Chinese dreams

Great post. Quoting map from there:

Exploration region closer to Vietnam than PRC.

PRC, go away. Quit poking your nose where it does not belong.

 

[amoy]

Capability gives Courage and Courage gives Confidence.

Well said. But does OVL / India have the same exploring / drilling capabilities? Or it's nothing more than a tit-for-tat needling

The CNOOC981, which cost $922 million to develop, can reportedly operate in depths of up to 3,000 meters and extract oil from 12,000 meters
That would be a huge leap for China's deepwater drilling capabilities, which previously only went down to 500 meters.

The rig weighs 31,000 tons and has a deck the size of a football field. It took China State Shipbuilding Corp three years to build it.

The state-run China National Offshore Oil company will operate the rig, which will leave Shanghai on Thursday for a "trial cruise" before drilling in the South China Sea in July, the People's Daily reports.

The CNOOC981 is "undoubtedly a milestone in China's oil drilling industry," "It is always a first-come-first-served game when vying for non-renewable resources in disputed sea areas, as the resources are not infinite."

Days are numbered before the rig's debut. The more hope VN has for OVL (India) the more disappointed VN will get over SCS

 

[captonjohn]

It is really irrelevant which country the exploration region is closer to. What matters here is China claims the exploration region whether you like it or not and we will protect what we claim.

Prepare for the cable cut-off.

You mean china can claim anything they want? A country having sea in its region obviously become the owner of that specific sea region. India is a natural owner of a portion of Indus ocean, arabian sea, and bay of bangal just because they all connected with Indian boundary. USA claims sea near to its boundary, Japan claim sea near its boundary so there is obvious rule that if a country is more closer to a sea area than other then she is a natural owner of that area did you forgot about that?

If china claims Vietnam's sea area then someday USA can claim south china sea region as its own then what will you do? Your claim is totally illegal similarly like any other country claims sea near your border.

 

[captonjohn]

We have the nerve to claim what belongs to us, no more no less.

When you navigate a ship inside our waters, you are sparking off a conflict.

You can not claim Vietnam's sea as your own just by showing some ancient historical facts. This is 2011 and world runs by today's rules and treaties so don't be bully. India too had control on large part of Indus ocean and sea near Myanmar, Malaysia, Shrilanka, Kambodia, Jamboo deep etc. So should we also start claiming their sea as our own based on those ancient fact?