Indian Monsoon & Global Warming

Discussion in 'Economy & Infrastructure' started by Pintu, Jun 24, 2009.

  1. Pintu

    Pintu New Member

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    BBC NEWS | South Asia | India monsoon rain 'below normal'

    India monsoon rain 'below normal'

    Indian officials say that monsoon rains in the country are likely to be "below normal" triggering off fears about crop failure and high food prices.

    Forecasters say that rainfall is likely to be lower than predicted in April, when they said it would be near normal.

    The government says there is no need for panic, and that heavy rains in July are likely to avert a drought.

    A heat wave is sweeping the country and rains are delayed in many parts. Rains usually last from June to September.

    "It [the monsoon] is late," federal minister Prithviraj Chavan told reporters.

    North-west India appeared to be worst affected by the slow rains with only 81% rains forecast.

    Critical

    Monsoon rains are critical to India's farm prospects, which account for a sixth of economic output.

    Up to 70% of Indians are dependent on farm incomes, and about 60% of India's farms depend on rains. Irrigation networks are dismissed by critics as inadequate.

    The summer rains are crucial to crops such as rice, soybean, sugarcane and cotton.

    The Indian media has been full of reports about the patchy rains so far.

    "Praying for rain, bracing for worst" headlined the Hindustan Times on its front page on Wednesday.

    The newspaper said that in at least eight states, monsoon rains so far had been 60 to 90% below normal.

    "There is concern but no worry as yet. There is still time," Farm Secretary T Nanda Kumar told the newspaper.

    One analyst said delay in the rains in some parts of India could hit economic growth.

    "Delay in monsoon will play the spoilsport and may hit GDP by at least 1 to 1.5 percentage points," stockbroker VK Sharma, told the Reuters news agency.

    Economists agree that the delay will cause further stress in a country where food prices are already high.

    "The delay is not a good signal. Food prices are already high and any delay could push food prices higher. Food price inflation could emerge as a concern," said DK Joshi, principal economist at credit ratings agency Crisil.

    Politicians in many states are holding special prayers for the rains - the farm minister in central Chhattisgarh state held a prayer for the state to get rains soon.
     
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  3. Pintu

    Pintu New Member

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    Rain-fed reservoirs run dry, power may be next casualty - India - The Times of India

    Rain-fed reservoirs run dry, power may be next casualty
    25 Jun 2009, 0010 hrs IST, Sanjay Dutta, TNN

    NEW DELHI: The extended dry spell is going to cause power shortage in the north if it continues much longer. The Tehri hydel plant, which supplies substantial power to Delhi, is doddering on the verge of closure as the water level in its reservoir has sunk to dangerously low levels. In case the plant has to be shut down, the northern supply pool will lose about 1,000MW and come under pressure as states rush to draw more than their legitimate share.

    The good news is that the Bhakra dam, the biggest hydel project in the north, is doing fine and is seeing more water flowing in from the mountains. Although the reservoir level remains lower than what it was at this time last year, the project is producing more power than the corresponding previous period. This is a positive development. Though Delhi does not get any power from this project, an outage would have meant loss of 2,866MW in the pool.

    Elsewhere in the country too, the situation is no better as reservoir levels are running low. The Central Water Commission has said that in 80% of the reservoirs, the water level is below the 10-year average for the season.

    But here again, the silver lining from the point of power generation is that the installed capacity is nearly divided equally between those that depend on a reservoir and those that use the flow of a river to run turbines. About 25-30% of the nearly 178,000MW of India’s installed capacity is hydel.

    The water level in Tehri has come down to 741 metres against a level of 830 metres during the monsoon. It is producing just 3.5 million units per day against 10-12 million units it did normally. The plant will have to be shut down if the water level sinks to 740 metres, executives working at the project told TOI on Wednesday.

    “The water flowing into the reservoir is one-third the level it was last year during this time. We are getting just 150-160 cumecs (cubic metres per second) against 350 cumecs,” an executive said.

    He attributed the short winter and lack of snowfall in the higher reaches and rain in the lower hills during this period for the low flow. “We had a bad winter last year. The November-February period is the time for our catchment to get snow and rains. But this time, there was no snow in the higher ranges and no rain in the lower mountains. Other snow-fed rivers are also in trouble. The situation will be grim if rains don’t come soon,” he added.

    Assuring that they would do their best to avoid switching off the plant, he said a shutdown would also mean lesser quantity of drinking water for Delhi.

    The Capital’s Sonia Vihar plant gets about 300 cusecs (cubic feet per second) of water from Tehri dam which comes out after spinning the turbines to generate power.

    The situation is much better for the Bhakra dam. The water level is at about 1,505 feet. Though this is lower than the 1,590 feet at this time last year, power production is higher than the previous corresponding period at 35-36 million units per day.

    The dam will have to be shut when the water level comes down to 1,462 feet. “We are comfortable and the inflow from the Spiti and Manali valleys in Himachal have been going up for the last two days. We are releasing more water for irrigation and that’s why we are producing more power,” a senior executive at the plant told TOI.

    During monsoon, or by September 20, the reservoir’s water level can reach 1,680 feet after which it lets the water flow on.

    While the government shied away from declaring an emergency over fears of below par monsoon, earth sciences minister Prithviraj Chavan said the cabinet secretary was keeping daily tabs on the situation and other ministries would react to the situation as it developed.

    Such low levels of predicted monsoon were last seen in 2004 when the country suffered a serious drought and IMD missed the signals early enough to put out a warning.

    IMD officials admitted that the chances of this being an El Nino year were as high as 60%. El Nino is a weather condition in the Pacific Ocean that leads to lower monsoon rains in India. D S Pai, director of the National Climate Centre of IMD said that 29 of the 36 El Nino years between 1875 and 2008 had seen less than normal rains. Of these, in as many as 15 years there was more than a 10% deficit in rainfall.

    Pai said that El Nino could pick up in July and the lowering of the monsoon estimation showed its initial impacts. But how bad it would hit the monsoons in the coming months would have to be monitored. Scientists suggested that the timing of when the EL Nino effect matures would decide the fate of the monsoon.
     
  4. Pintu

    Pintu New Member

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    The Statesman

    Monsoon likely to hit by Friday

    ;Press Trust of India
    New Delhi, 23 JUNE: Playing truant so far, southwest monsoon is expected to bring rains to most parts of the country after a revival of the seasonal rain system likely by Friday.
    “Monsoon is expected to revive by 25 June and good rains across most parts of the country are expected till 2 July,” weathermen said here.
    According to another short-term forecast, most parts of the country are likely to receive rainfall till 15 July.
    A strong monsoon surge is being observed in the Bay of Bengal raising expectations of revival by 25 June, India Meteorological Department director Mr BP Yadav said.
    Asked about the affect of El-Nino, rise in Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) in the Pacific Ocean, IMD director general Mr Ajit Tyagi said meteorologists have noted a 0.5 degree increase in SST.
    The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has forecast that El-Nino conditions are likely to develop towards the “end of the third quarter of 2009.”
    “The situation, therefore, warrants careful monitoring over the next couple of months,” the WMO said. The southwest monsoon season lasts till September. Earth sciences minister Mr Prithviraj Chavan said the PMO has been monitoring the monsoon on a daily basis.
    Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh had expressed concern over the delay in monsoon and asked the Cabinet secretary to monitor the situation on a daily basis. A meeting of agriculture secretaries of states that have not received any rains has been convened on Friday to take stock of the situation arising out of the delayed monsoon. Top officials, however, maintain that though the situation is worrisome there was no need to panic and policymakers have factored in a 10-day delay in rainfall while drawing up various plans.
     
  5. Daredevil

    Daredevil On Vacation! Administrator

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    India's monsoon advances to central region

    India's monsoon advances to central region

    Sat Jun 27, 2009 4:29pm IST
    By Ratnajyoti Dutta

    NEW DELHI, June 27 (Reuters) -India's monsoon has revived and advanced after a prolonged weak phase to the central region comprising the states of Madhya Pradesh and parts of Uttar Pradesh, the country's top weather official said on Saturday.

    The monsoon has entered central India, about four days ahead of earlier forecasts by the weather office.

    India's monsoon displayed a weak phase for about two weeks from June 7, then showed marginal revival in the South-Western coasts.

    It has so far covered southern, eastern region and parts of Western India.

    "We expect good rainfall in the next seven to 10 days," Ajit Tyagi, director general of the India Meteorological Department told Reuters.

    India's monsoon rainfall during June 1 to June 24 was 52.8 mm, 54 percent below the normal rainfall.

    Tyagi said the monsoon revival would speed up crop sowing in the central region, a major producer of soya beans, rice and sugarcane.

    "We are still hopeful of a good monsoon despite the weak phase," Tyagi said.

    On Wednesday, the weather office said total rainfall for the crucial June-September monsoon would be only 93 percent of the long-term average, coming in below normal for the first time in four years.
     
  6. Yusuf

    Yusuf GUARDIAN Administrator

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    Blame the El Nino for this years deficient rains.
     
  7. Daredevil

    Daredevil On Vacation! Administrator

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    Blame global warming and in turn mankind for causing it.
     
  8. Yusuf

    Yusuf GUARDIAN Administrator

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    Dont know where i read recently, someone has come up with some research saying that global warming is in fact good for the earth!!
     
  9. indian_sukhoi

    indian_sukhoi Regular Member

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    Great,.....Cut more trees, deforestation!!!:((


    Monsoon brings the message of joy and romance for all the Indians. It bring me smile and relielf to me.

    Indian agriculture, almost 70 percent of the population is heavily dependent on the monsoon due to lack of better irrigation resources. A delayed monsoon can turn Indian economy devastated.

    Country will fall to its knees, if there is lack of rain.
     
  10. Daredevil

    Daredevil On Vacation! Administrator

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    Can you find that article and post in the forum.
     
  11. Yusuf

    Yusuf GUARDIAN Administrator

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    Deforestation is a different matter all together. Global warming is caused by CO2 emissions.
     
  12. Koji

    Koji New Member

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    You are SO wrong. Deforestation eliminates the # of trees, which serve as a resevoir for C02.
     
  13. Yusuf

    Yusuf GUARDIAN Administrator

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    I am aware of that. I was talking about the primary cause.
    Global warming has existed since the beginning of time. We would be shivering in ice age if there was no global warming to melt it all away.
     
  14. Koji

    Koji New Member

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    Global warming is a cyclical process of periods of hot vs cold. Concrete science has already proved that this warming cycle is far too fast when compared to past warming cycles. The next age is until a few millenia. You don't know what you are talking about.

    Deforestation is a primary cause of global warming.
     
  15. Yusuf

    Yusuf GUARDIAN Administrator

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    So who was chopping all the trees 10000 years ago? Deforestation is aiding global warming, but is not the sole cause.
     
  16. thakur_ritesh

    thakur_ritesh Administrator Administrator

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    Land of the GODS - "Dev Bhomi".
    if i am not wrong, isnt the emissions norms the real problem which have seen a major increase over the past few years. so eventually it all comes to industrialization, automobiles, condumer durables, etc.
     
  17. Koji

    Koji New Member

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    Yes they are all reasons, but deforestation is a primary reason as well.
     
  18. thakur_ritesh

    thakur_ritesh Administrator Administrator

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    Land of the GODS - "Dev Bhomi".
    kind of agree with you, because as far as i recall the pace of deforestation is close to two football stadiums per day but is it really the primary reason, if so please kindly provide a link, would be of great help.

    thanks.
     
  19. Yusuf

    Yusuf GUARDIAN Administrator

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    It would be good if you have any links to research that says deforestation is the primary cause?
    It seems to me that the issue of emission is being skirted as China refuses to undertake any cuts in emissions. So blame deforestation for it.
     
  20. youngindian

    youngindian Senior Member Senior Member

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    Indian scientists hope to make it rain

    Indian scientists hope to make it rain | Sindh Today - Online News


    New Delhi, June 28 (IANS) If it doesn’t rain, it might still pour! That’s what some Indian scientists are hoping to achieve with a national cloud seeding programme at a time when there’s uncertainty about the arrival and intensity of the monsoon this year.


    Scientists at the Pune-based Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) are set to create artificial rain with this programme.

    Cloud seeding is the process of introducing chemicals (either dry ice or more commonly, silver iodide aerosols, potassium and sodium chloride) into the upper part of clouds to try to stimulate the precipitation process and get rain.

    “Scientists at the IITM have started the experiment to create artificial rain. It is a three-year project launched in May and, based on the feedback, the government will take a call on its implementation,” Shailesh Nayak, secretary at the Earth Sciences Ministry, told IANS.

    The IITM, a premier research institute under the government, launched the Cloud Aerosol Interaction and Precipitation Enhancement Experiment (Caipeex) on May 17, 2009, to study cloud seeding.

    “It is a national programme which will help in providing a scientific basis for the operational way of cloud-seeding. For the last 20 years we have been experimentally undertaking cloud-seeding activity successfully and an 11-year cloud seeding project between 1973 and 1984 showed increase in rainfall by 20 percent,” J.R. Kulkarni, programme manager at Caipeex, told IANS.

    The experiment will be carried out in three phases. During the first phase (May-October), the scientists have been observing different monsoon clouds over the country using an aircraft with special equipment.

    “The aircraft is equipped with a special instrument to measure cloud parameters – temperature, wind, liquid water droplets – and aerosol background. This data will provide us with properties of clouds in different parts of the country,” said Kulkarni.

    The IIMT has already studied clouds in western and northern parts of India and the team is likely to finish the southern region by June end.

    During the second phase (June-September 2010), random cloud seeding experiments will be carried out, using the aircraft equipped for seeding and the one containing the special equipment.

    “Based on the properties of clouds, we will start the seeding programme across India. The seeding aircraft will spray hygroscopic particles (salts) that can broaden water droplets in clouds and hasten the onset of precipitation formation,” said Kulkarni.

    In the third phase (2011-12), scientists will measure and analyse the seeding impact.

    “A dense network of automatic rain gauges will be installed in the experimental area to measure the rainfall. Rain water samples will be collected from the seeded and non-seeded clouds. The chemical analysis of rain water samples will be carried out to understand the effect of seeding on the precipitated water,” he said.

    “The experiment will give us an idea which areas are conducive for cloud-seeding and the amount of increase in rainfall after the experiment,” he added.

    Many other organisations, including the Indian Institute of Technology-Kanpur, the National Aerospace Laboratory, Bangalore, the Indian Air Force and the Indian Navy, are participating in the project.

    China presently has the largest cloud seeding system in the world. It used cloud seeding in Beijing just before the 2008 Olympic Games in order to clear the air of pollution. In February 2009, China also used iodide sticks to artificially induce snowfall over Beijing after four months of drought.

    A total of 24 countries currently practse weather modification operationally.
     
  21. Terminator

    Terminator Regular Member

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    At this present situation i would say yes to artifically induced rain!
     

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