Indian GDP Growth to cross 8% mark This Fiscal: NITI Aayog VC

Discussion in 'Economy & Infrastructure' started by rock127, Nov 1, 2015.

  1. rock127

    rock127 Maulana Rockullah Senior Member

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    Indian GDP Growth to cross 8 % mark This Fiscal: NITI Aayog VC

    [​IMG]

    NEW DELHI: Expecting upward revision in the first quarter GDP number, NITI Aayog Vice-Chairman Arvind Panagariya today said the economy will surpass 8 per cent growth rate in the current financial year.

    "Things are moving. The 7 per cent economic growth in first quarter will be revised upwards. I still stand by my statement that we will cross 8 per cent economic growth this fiscal," he told reporters.


    In the first quarter of the current fiscal (April-June), the economic growth rate was 7 per cent, down from 7.5 per cent in the preceding three months mainly on account of deceleration in farm, services and manufacturing sectors. It was, however, 6.7 per cent in the corresponding quarter a year ago.

    Unfazed by low growth in the first quarter, Mr Panagariya said, "The picture will be more clear when we will get the second quarter GDP data by the end of November. The investments are up during the first half of this fiscal which reflect buoyancy in the economy. The numbers are even more than that of China."

    The Finance Ministry in its Economic Survey in February has set growth target of 8.1 to 8.5 per cent for the current fiscal.However, the Reserve Bank in its monetary policy review last month lowered the GDP growth forecast to 7.4 per cent for the current fiscal from 7.6 per cent.

    Earlier this month, International Monetary Fund (IMF) too projected a slight drop in India's growth rate from 7.5 per cent to 7.3 per cent in 2015. The multilateral body, however, retained its growth projection for 2016 at 7.5 per cent.The World Bank has maintained its India growth forecast for 2015-16 saying it will continue to grow, but the catch is the acceleration year-on-year will be gradual.

    "The latest India Development Update expects India's economic growth to be at 7.5 per cent in 2015-16, followed by a further acceleration to 7.8 per cent in 2016-17 and 7.9 per cent in 2017-18," the multilateral lending agency had said in a report released earlier this week.

    "However, acceleration in growth is conditional on the growth rate of investment picking up to 8.8 per cent during FY16 to FY18," it had said.The Indian economy grew 7.3 per cent in the previous fiscal compared to advance estimates of 7.4 per cent by the Central Statistics Office.
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  3. pmaitra

    pmaitra Moderator Moderator

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    Hope these predictions come true, after adjusting for inflation.

    So, this Niti Ayog is just a Modified version of the Planning Commission isn't it?
     
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  4. Sakal Gharelu Ustad

    Sakal Gharelu Ustad Detests Jholawalas Moderator

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    I think it does not look over the division of central funds to states.

    Sent from my MI 3W using Tapatalk
     
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  5. hit&run

    hit&run Elite Member Elite Member

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    Modi avenged his repeated insult and obstructionism; by throwing out Congress-I cronies of Planning commission. Rather futile route of taking them out one by one, he carpet bombed the whole institute itself. Nothing more nothing less.

    Montek Ahluwalia saw it coming and quit before the bombing started.

    This message went through fast and strong to his adversaries; political pundits as usual, got it mixed up with Modified or not Modified.
     
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  6. PredictablyMalicious

    PredictablyMalicious Punjabi Senior Member

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    This finding is not corroborated by IMF or any other institution.....
     
  7. Srinivas_K

    Srinivas_K Senior Member Senior Member

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    I think the GDP growth rate is just warming up.

    Once the infrastructure projects are on full swing, expect GDP growth rate to touch double digits easily.

    Reason for optimism is that India is yet to be a manufacturing base and there is lot of potential in infrastructure development.

    Till now we are only competing with other powers based on services and minor infra projects.



     
  8. blueblood

    blueblood Senior Member Senior Member

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    Won't happen until GST is passed and double digit can only be achieved when EDFC and WDFC are in full swing.
     
  9. I_PLAY_BAD

    I_PLAY_BAD Regular Member

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    We must not look up to GST too much because once implemented GST is going to add up to 1-15% only to the GDP growth.
    Rather we must put more effort in moving stalled infra projects and some rapid decision making to kick start new projects and policy refactoring. 8% for a country like India with more people below poverty is not at all good. It must be a double digit growth. They must move to it at as quickly as possible.
     
  10. Mad Indian

    Mad Indian Proud Bigot Veteran Member Senior Member

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    I would rather be happy with a 7% growth backed by reforms and improvement in ease of doing business which can be sustained in the long run and improves the fundamental of the economy than be excited about short and unsustainable bursts of even 10% or 15% growth per annum. Sad to see that the reforms have no picked up pace.
     
  11. Compersion

    Compersion Senior Member Senior Member

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    If we focus also have energise and concentration on making 3-5 cities in India world class in infrastructures and performance not only 8% much more will be achieved.

    Our main metros do not compare in standard to many nearby. It is improving but some say slowly and even in pockets and by accident(!!). Making them world class will have a sprinkled down impact on others who will follow.

    Some parts of new Delhi and Mumbai are incredible (both extremes).
     
  12. PaliwalWarrior

    PaliwalWarrior Regular Member

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    of course with a formula of calcualtions - jhumla formula - we can even cross 12%

    its no wonder

    also even the Govts own chief econoimic advision is not able to understand it !!!!!!!!!!
     
  13. bengalraider

    bengalraider DFI Technocrat Stars and Ambassadors

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    I seriously doubt this figure, we have not been able to push through most key legislation required for growth and the monsoon has also been deficient. We shall manage 7.3-7.5% tops!~
     
  14. hit&run

    hit&run Elite Member Elite Member

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    Would you please give your point of view in more detail if the stats expected by the official are to be doubted or declared as factitious.

    So far with few comments already I don't think anyone is over joyous; rather cautious about India's growth and GDP figures.

    Thanks
     
  15. bose

    bose Senior Member Senior Member

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    Implement GST ASAP... It will contribute 1 - 2% to GDP... Why BJP has not called the winter session to get it through ?

    India need 8 - 10 % growth on a sustained manner over a period of 10 - 15 years to eradicate poverty ...
     
  16. rock127

    rock127 Maulana Rockullah Senior Member

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    Have you read the news properly about what IMF etc says?

    Also do IMF etc runs India OR Govt of India does who knows more about future plans?

    A sustained % is better instead of fluctuations.

    Govt has better plan ie. 100 smart cities.This could be a game changer.

    btw read in business news about how property boom is taking place in Amravati after it was declared capital recently.
     
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  17. Compersion

    Compersion Senior Member Senior Member

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    100 smart cities is a way to acknowledge it is.difficult to improve the current cities. Also 100,is a large number. This smart city is a good idea and easier to implememt since our 3-5 top cities require major.overhall and regeneration. I would rather have our administrative strength be focused on making 3-5 cities world class and absolutely a delight to talk about. It is.difficult but the benefits.are immense. Look at London and.even Manchester for.example and.even new york (when crime was high). I would like to see a mayorial system in our metros like London, Paris, new york. Where many decision and power are devolved to a single person. If these.major centres are why we need to stick to old ways - are we better - are we slower - are we not wanting to change. I suppose it is like that NJAC we need to.improve our foresight and drafting and less cheap politics on major reforms. Evolution along the way is important we won't be right the first time always and getting it wrong is not a sin if we have the intent and make.fixes with results .

    I also don't want a.situation like a recent city of ours where a political party linked its.development to its own agenda (make it self and its leaders rich) and.benefit at expense of developments.
     
    Last edited: Nov 2, 2015
  18. rock127

    rock127 Maulana Rockullah Senior Member

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    If we see practically then 100 Smart Cities is a massive project, so to START with a initial plan for 3-5 cities(or 10-15 depending on the $$$) can be a good idea and achieve ground results within 5 years.

    In the next Phase more cities can be touched upon since investors(local/foreigner) would have seen the results as well and govt already gained experience and perhaps second term in 2019.
     
  19. Kharavela

    Kharavela Regular Member

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    #ModiSarkar has planned exactly what you are suggesting & in much more detail. Apart from categorizing smart cities in different phases, Ministry has also prioritized the order of building the said cities.

    Investment in Infrastructure (Railways & Waterways included), Ease of doing Business, Zero tolerance for Corruption are key to achieve sustained growth. Lets see how #ModiSarkar scores on these.

    Personally, I would like to see Dr Swamy as Finance Minister because he has clear views & actionables. He had spelt part of his vision before LS-2014 on 21st Sep 2013:
     
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  20. Kharavela

    Kharavela Regular Member

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  21. Sakal Gharelu Ustad

    Sakal Gharelu Ustad Detests Jholawalas Moderator

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    SS is ranting against Modi govt. in this article.

    I like when people begin their prescription after giving a false analogy. Japan/South Korea were indeed miracles as can be seen by looking at their per capita income even now. They were export driven miracles and achieved great success and followed closely by China, which again did very well following the same model. Probably, India is too late to jump on this bandwagon. The "east Asian Crash" he is talking about was predominantly in Malaysia, Philippines and others caused by excessive heating of the real estate market through cheap short term foreign credit. The creditors pulled out on the first sign of crisis and screwed their economies for short-run. Most of them are not back on track.

    How does this scenario relate to India can be explained only by our very own Mr Bombastic Swami!! So, given that the first three paragraphs are a bunch of lies pooled together, you don't need to read further the prescriptions suggested by him. Btw, no surprise it is published in The Hindu, which would publish anything that spells doom for India even if its written by filthy communal person like SS!!
     
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