Indian Future Strategic scenario thread

Discussion in 'Defence & Strategic Issues' started by bengalraider, Nov 5, 2015.

  1. bengalraider

    bengalraider DFI Technocrat Stars and Ambassadors

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    India is rapidly growing to become one of the preeminent economic powerhouses on the planet, predictions by various analysts suggest that India shall become a4 trillion$ economy by 2020,a 5-7$ trillion economy by 2025 and a 40+trillion $ economy by 2050. This shall have an immense impact in how India as a nation interacts with the world both in the cultural, economic and geopolitical spheres. This thread is designed to help us understand the implications of and possibilities of that rise .

    [​IMG]
    http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2011/jan/07/gdp-projections-china-us-uk-brazil
    [​IMG]
    http://www.dnb.co.in/India2020economyoutlook/Macro_Economic_Outlook2020.asp
    [​IMG]

    I believe that the greatest impact shall be in the near abroad as India becomes a industrial hub that supplies goods to the entire region(naturally barring Pakistan until the Pakistanis can decide on trade). The Madhesi issue and others shall be relelgrated to the past as Indian Investment in Bangladesh, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Bhutan shall accelerate.A pan Sub continental Transit Network where a Nepali trucker can essentially drive all the way to Tutucorin to then board a RORO vessel for Colombo should be in place by the end of 2030 at least, this and other measures such as a subcontinental energy grid possibly fed by Bangladeshi gas could well become a reality by then.
    India would also accelerate engagement with Africa and SE Asia Becoming a Transhipment hub for material flowing from Asia to Africa and Vice Versa. Expect many more Indo-African summits and ASEAN summits to take place in Indian in the interim.
    I suspect our relationship will China shall improve as trade via new road and rail links from China to Kolkata via the NE and from China to Delhi via Nepal are built and used, it shall however still remain tenuous on some issues.
    There are many more areas and regions to be discussed in depth ,looking for your inputs on this as well.



    P.S i would request all members to engage in polite discussion on this thread would going into hyperbole or name calling.
     
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  3. bengalraider

    bengalraider DFI Technocrat Stars and Ambassadors

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  4. LETHALFORCE

    LETHALFORCE Moderator Moderator

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    Two factors have to be addressed to make this possible :

    1) Energy security- India imports almost 100 percent of its fuel no oil in the country which can sustain demand. India has no indigenous uranium sources
    to have an effective nuclear program . India has not signed NPT not a NSG member etc... To make easy import. Thorium program still maybe a decade away?

    2) internal security - decades of corruption prevented India from developing any indigenous military infrastructure . Almost all indigenous efforts drag on for decades and a big order is placed to buy a foreign product. India also still has a soft power image where even smaller countries like Italy and Germany etc. can still bully India without any repercussions. Border issues that were non issues become easily internationalized and linger.

    Until these two major factors are addressed India's growth is capped . For sustained growth these two issues need to be addressed. But many positives of huge foreign investments , advances in tech and space are major positives. I was going to add a third food security but leave at these two for now. India will be different from China in growth . Centuries of colonial tyranny had India miss the whole industrial manufacturing revolution so India will not be an export economy but an educated English speaking workforce will make it a major service economy. I am optimistic demographics favor India. The younger generation do not have baggage Like the older post colonial generations shaking off the trauma of British rule.
     
    Last edited: Nov 5, 2015
  5. bengalraider

    bengalraider DFI Technocrat Stars and Ambassadors

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    @LETHALFORCE I believe energy security is easily available by tapping the enormous hydel and tidal power reserves we hold. Also as far as uranium is concerned apart from the jadugoda narbapahar mines in jharkhand ( I had the pleasure of visiting here in 2001) the UCIL has operationalized the tumalapalli mine in andhra Pradesh as well. The tumalapalli mine is believed to be among the largest such deposits globally.Apart from that the khasi hills are also believed to hold major deposits.
    Thorium is our trump card however and once completely operational should be our main energy source for the coming century.The country's only monazite processing plant recently started operations in Orissa and the design for the thorium reactor was also finalized however there is little clarity on when the first reactor will be built.The aishwarya oil field in barmer is producing nearly 100,000barrels of crude daily nearly 10%of total Indian needs however yes this is one area where nature had dealt us a poor hand.

    As far as internal security is concerned we have just begun serious efforts at building a true MIC not a government funded cash sink. I believe that with pragmatic leadership our national security situation shall be far better be 2030.
    As far as food security is concerned the national river linking project that was in limbo since the vajpayee era has just been revived. If the present dispensation continues for a decade at least our dependence on the monsoons should be reduced greatly , this will have a massive positive effect on agriculture in general. Also infrastructure like the freight corridors , cold storage network and legislation like GST will ensure that food grains are transported across state borders rapidly with fewer losses ,but yes a lot more remains unfinished.
     
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  6. salute

    salute Senior Member Senior Member

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    thats ppp model what about nominal.
     
  7. bengalraider

    bengalraider DFI Technocrat Stars and Ambassadors

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    The figures quoted are nominal, by PPP we are already the third largest economy with a 7+ trillion $ GDP.
     
  8. salute

    salute Senior Member Senior Member

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    me asked that because its written ppp on that chart.
     
  9. bengalraider

    bengalraider DFI Technocrat Stars and Ambassadors

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    Just saw that my mistake, the figures for 2050 are as per PPP, rest are nominal.
     
  10. bengalraider

    bengalraider DFI Technocrat Stars and Ambassadors

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    The funny thing is that as per the economist intelligence unit, our nominal GDP in 2050 will be higher than ppp at around 63.8 trillion $.
    [​IMG]
     
  11. blueblood

    blueblood Senior Member Senior Member

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    @bengalraider

    IMO these predictions are a very very futile exercise, especially the long term ones. No way in hell, Japan will be the fifth largest economy in 2050. Japan would be lucky to be in top 15 by then. Same goes for UK. China OTOH though will still be the largest economy but the size is grossly exaggerated.

    • $4 trillion nominal by 2020 though achievable is unlikely.
    • PPP would be a much better indicator for comparison. Afterall, 1.27 billion plus people are earning and spending in rupees.
    • As @LETHALFORCE correctly pointed out one major factor, i.e. energy security. You can't become an economic powerhouse till you achieved the desired levels of availability of fuel, electricity not just for industries but for common man. Though I would disagree on the internal security factor. Indian economy was growing at 9% in a not so stable time period.
    • None of this means anything if HDI is still below the desired levels and changes in the life style of a significant portion of the citizenry did not took place.
    • But I would agree with the "muscle" that will come with a larger and stronger economy, be it military or diplomatic.
     
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  12. LETHALFORCE

    LETHALFORCE Moderator Moderator

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    @blueblood

    If internal security is an ongoing problem it may discourage foreign investment? If Indian economy becomes independent of foreign investment this would no longer a major issue.

    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
    Last edited: Nov 5, 2015
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  13. blueblood

    blueblood Senior Member Senior Member

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    It depends entirely on the definition of "internal stability and security". The graph of terrorist violence is going down and so far 2015 is most peaceful since 1989 i.e. the start of Kashmir insurgency.

    http://www.satp.org/satporgtp/countries/india/database/indiafatalities.htm

    But a single random killing of some Muslim guy or a pseudo intellectual or a rape is the mark of instability in a country of 1.27 billion people then neither you, I or anyone else for that matter can do anything about it.
     
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  14. Bornubus

    Bornubus Senior Member Senior Member

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    IMO as Indian economy rises we should also prepare to complete the unfinished agenda of partition i.e to annex POK and to crush naxals once and for all.
     
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  15. bengalraider

    bengalraider DFI Technocrat Stars and Ambassadors

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    Naxalism has largely been brought under control with fewer incidents of maoist related violence being reported for the past year(except chattisgarh which recorded and increase), i suspect as we get richer our security forces including the state police forces will get more funds to better equip themselves, the pace of development in rural areas should also increase accordingly. I was in the heartland of Bengal not long ago and there has been a lot of positive movement there with regards to water, education and road development. The increasing GDP should further fuel such growth.The Youth is by and large aligned to capitalism and the golden age of communism is gone, naxalism will die it's own death as the BIMARU states develop.
    The Best thing that has happened due to the rise of NAMO is that just competing with him has forced local satraps to take development seriously, this will have a bigger long term impact than is being estimated today.As the satraps develop their own hospital,roads,schools,electricity and water networks to counter the BJP led development brigade it will bring about the change in HDI that @blueblood mentioned.
     
  16. Zebra

    Zebra Senior Member Senior Member

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  17. bengalraider

    bengalraider DFI Technocrat Stars and Ambassadors

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    well he was there in the members list i just took the first twenty odd names that showed up!
     
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  18. blueblood

    blueblood Senior Member Senior Member

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    LOL ajtr is long since retired from the forum world.:dude:
     
  19. blueblood

    blueblood Senior Member Senior Member

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    True, finest example that I learned is the rapid development that has taken place in UP post 2014. Mullah Akhilesh is serious about development ever since Amit Shah and NAMO tore him and his father a new one.

    Dalit ki Beti is saying no more statues and parks.:lol::lol::lol:
     
  20. Illusive

    Illusive Senior Member Senior Member

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    Energy security, Internal security and Water Security. Water is precious and little in Subcontinent. River Linking has to be the top priority. With global temperatures changing, we'll see change in monsoon patterns too. Not to forget India needs to research in cheap renewable water supply methods also desalination methods which is currently expensive.
     
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  21. Varahamihira

    Varahamihira Regular Member

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    Fresh water is very important.If I'm not wrong,even if you desalinate it's not useful for agriculture and moreover it's very expensive,only useful for drinking.

    Developed countries are running out of freshwater at a rapid pace.That's why they import food from rest of the world i.e. Africa,Asia and South America.What it means is they are indirectly importing fresh water.

    Not only that the grains that are fed to animals in animal farming is more than we grow for humans.Meaning,using more freshwater and land just for animal farming.The West failed to sustain this model and definitely India will fail to sustain if we follow their model.

    Hope Modiji has thought about it.

    EDIT:Animal farming means slaughter houses,etc.
     
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