Indian Economy for Dummies

Discussion in 'Economy & Infrastructure' started by sorcerer, Mar 9, 2016.

  1. sorcerer

    sorcerer Senior Member Senior Member

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    Indian Economy for Dummies - I


    S Gurumurthy (Member, VIF Advisory Board)
    It’s that time of the year when ‘experts’ throw around intimidating economic jargon to ‘advise’ the government and ostensibly enlighten us all on what’s wrong with our economy. Starting today, we bring to you well-known commentator on political and economic affairs S Gurumurthy’s three-part series, Indian Economy for Dummies, to make the subject intelligible and less intimidating. In the first part, he lays bare hidden truths behind some obvious facts that are the most difficult to detect and missed in the Indian economic discourse, policy and budget-making.

    Truths hidden in facts about India that are obvious to the naked eye are missed in Indian economic discourse and budget-making. Do you know that the share of corporate sector in national GDP is just about 15% after drawing Rs 18 lakh crore credit? And that it created just 2.8 million jobs? The informal sector on the other hand generates 90 per cent of jobs in India

    Related: Indian Economy for Dummies - II

    Obvious fact, hidden truth

    Look at some of the obvious facts about the Indian economy. Household savings have been rising post-liberalisation despite average interest rates falling since the 1990s. Most of household savings get into low-yielding bank deposits even though the Indian stock market has been growing at a compounded rate of 14 per cent a year since 1991. The growth in Indian per capita spending is slower as compared to the rising per capita income despite the intense consumerist agenda powered by liberalisation. Indian households trust banks, gold and properties and not stocks as much. Indian public and private — domestic and foreign, listed and unlisted — corporates put together improved their share of national GDP from a mere 12% in 1991 to a mere 15% — by just 3% in over two decades of a policy regime that red-carpeted the corporates, particularly foreign. The share of listed corporates in the national GDP is just about 5% even now. And the share of the companies figuring in the Sensex is minuscule. These obvious facts hide some basic truths about the Indian economy. But economists tend not to see the hidden truth behind obvious facts. They even blame the obvious facts for the economic ills of India. They fault Indians for not investing in stocks and for not producing risk capital. Indians invest in gold, thus making their savings unproductive, they charge. And yet, they turn blind to the under-performance of corporates altogether. Hidden truths behind obvious facts are the most difficult to detect. Because unless one asks why it is so, the truth behind the obvious will remain hidden. Only critical minds can ask why and get at the truth — like only Isaac Newton did not blame the apple for falling but asked why apples were falling and brought out the truth of gravitational pull hidden in the obvious fact of the falling apple. The truths hidden in facts about India that are obvious to the naked eye are missed in Indian economic discourse. And therefore in policy and budget making in India. The elitist nature of the guild of economists in India, who look to the West for handling the problems of India, is the reason for their ignorance about the hidden truth behind obvious facts.

    Related: Is Selling PSBs to Foreigners Rajan's Agenda?

    Insulated, arrogant

    The profession of economists had become so respectable in the 20th century West that economists became more respected than elected leaders, who even fear them. After the 2008 crisis, The Economist magazine [July 19-24, 2009] wrote, “On the public stage, economists were seen as far more trustworthy than politicians” but added, “in the wake of the biggest economic calamity in 80 years that reputation had taken a beating. In the public mind, the arrogant profession has been humbled.” But despite that, economists still have an intimidating influence over politicians. But who are economists and what is economics? Decades ago [1973] J K Galbraith, a celebrated economist himself and a diplomat, wrote that economic services are ‘ideological’ and ‘consist in instructing several hundred thousand students every year’; the instruction is ‘inefficient’ but nevertheless ‘implants imprecise, but serviceable, set of ideas’ in the minds ‘of even those who are opposed to it’; they are ‘led to accept what they might otherwise criticise’. Galbraith concluded: “As such, it serves as a surrogate for the reality for legislators, civil servants, journalists, television commentators, professional prophets, — all, indeed, who speak, write or act on economic questions”. The subject of economics and the guild of economists could not have been demystified more eloquently. What Galbraith meant is that the profession of economists is an oligarchy which perpetuates its own agenda by enforcing conformity within, not just to dominate over the elected political system, but to direct the whole public discourse. Is it not time then that the subject, economics, which has been monopolised by a self-perpetuating set of experts, is demystified, made less intimidating and less elitist? Is it not time that all intelligent people are made to understand the hidden truth behind obvious facts? The popular book series ‘For Dummies’, which claims to present non-intimidating guides for readers new to different subjects, deals with all subjects under the sun. With more than 200 million books sold, the series now covers over 2,700 titles, but surprisingly the subject of economics is not one of them! Therefore, economics for dummies is long overdue. Here is a first edition of it — an essay on Indian economy for dummies to start with. Just take one obvious and undisputed fact and see how the economic establishment looks the other way.

    Jobless corporate growth

    A study [July 2013] by Credit Suisse Asia Pacific India Equity Research Investment Strategy revealed that after more than two decades of economic liberalisation, the share of the formal sector, (namely the public and private corporate sectors together) in national GDP stood at just 15 per cent and that of listed corporates was just 5 per cent. Despite all the pampering by the government and economists, the formal sector's share of the nation’s GDP improved by just 3 per cent in more than two decades. In this period, the sector had received foreign investment by debt and equity of over $550 billion and also drew over Rs 18 lakh crore from banks as credit. But how many jobs did it add in this period? Believe it, just 2.8 million! Economists would never mention the huge investment into the formal sector nor the insignificant number of jobs added by it, so that they need not answer either why it produced such jobless growth or ask who else provided the jobs. When I brought this to his notice, a shocked N R Narayanamurthy told me that as the software sector itself had added 3.5 million jobs, it meant that the rest of the corporate sector had actually cut jobs by over 700,000, rather than adding any. Did any economist or prime minister ever speak this hard truth that the big corporates do not provide jobs to the people? Prime Minister Narendra Modi spoke this truth when he unveiled the Mudra finance scheme to the non-corporate sector on April 9, 2015. He said: “People think it’s big industries and corporate houses that provide higher employment. The truth is, only 12.5 million people are employed by big corporates, against 120 million by MSME sector.” He reiterated it when he wrote to small businessmen on April 15, 2015.

    Unfunded job rich sector

    And where from then did the jobs and people’s livelihood come? The Credit Suisse study says that 90 per cent of the total of 474 million jobs in India is generated by the non-corporate sector which contributes half the national GDP. The study labels this sector in the global language as the informal sector. But it adds that unlike in the West, where the informal sector is largely an illegal sector, in India it is legal business which remains informal only because the government has been unable to reach out to it. The Economic Census (2013-14) says that some 57.7 million non-farming and non-construction businesses yield 128 million jobs. The census classifies them as Own Account Enterprises (OAEs), implying it is self-employment. The census finds that over 60 per cent of OAEs are run by entrepreneurs belonging to Other Backward Castes, Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes; more than half the OAEs and as many jobs provided by them are in rural areas; and nine out of 10 OAEs are unregistered. But this sector, which ensures both social justice and is rich in generating jobs, gets just 4 per cent of its credit needs from the formal banking system and the rest at usurious rates of interest. Here is a paradox. The banks fund corporates which add very little jobs. They are unable to fund the OAEs which generate ten times the jobs the corporates provide.

    Citing the Credit Suisse study, The Economist magazine (August 2013) wrote that the best way the Indian informal economy may be formalised is to provide formal finance to them. The capital employed in the 57.7 million units is about Rs 11.4 lakh crore, according to the Economic Census. This informal (cash) financing takes place outside the formal monetary system supervised by the Reserve Bank. The Mudra finance scheme is based on the experience that banks cannot fund this sector. It has devised an innovative method of associating existing large Non Banking Finance Companies providing finance to this sector as National and State Level Coordinators and the small ones as Last Mile Lenders. Without co-opting the existing non-formal finance players, the OAEs cannot be funded.

    This innovative effort is being effectively thwarted by a warped bureaucracy — Reserve Bank and the Department of Financial Services acting together. They are effectively scuttling the new Mudra Law promised in the 2015-16 Budget to institute the new financing model. Their objection is that if informal financing is formalised, that would add to the systemic risk. Is allowing close to Rs 12 lakh crore sub-monetary cash economy sourced in black and illegal monies to operate and gain interest rates ranging from 24 to 360 per cent, distorting formal savings, investment, and interest rates not systemic risk? Will the Raghuram Rajans and Department of Financial Services answer? Result, the Prime Minister’s Mudra finance scheme is being delayed, if not stymied by professionals who just want to keep their CV good for their career progress within the guild of economists.

    (To be continued)

    The author is a well-known commentator on economic and political affairs.

    Published in The New India Express on 18th February 2016.
    (Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the Vivekananda International Foundation) - See more at: http://www.vifindia.org/article/2016/march/07/indian-economy-for-dummies-1#sthash.yvlI4DRe.dpuf
     
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  3. sorcerer

    sorcerer Senior Member Senior Member

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    Indian Economy for Dummies - II
    S Gurumurthy (Member, VIF Advisory Board)
    In the second of a three-part series on the Indian economy ahead of the presentation of the Union Budget, well-known commentator on political and economic affairs, S Gurumurthy argues that the Indian family’s instinct to save in banks rather than spend at stores, which is similar to that of Japanese families, has insulated the economy from global crises. However, this cultural aspect has not been given due consideration when it comes to policy and budget-making efforts in the country. This, he explains, is due to the Western bias of Indian economists.

    Domestic Impulses

    Recall the economic discourse in the 1990s when, threatened by a forex crisis and nearly defaulting on its external debts, India liberalised its economy to allow free foreign investment and foreign trade. The nation was told then that as Indians did not save enough, the economy did not generate adequate capital, and therefore foreign investment was needed for growth. Emphasis was also laid on exports and foreign trade as the main drivers of growth. Looking back from the vantage point of 25 years of liberalisation, it is self-evident now that foreign investment has played but only a secondary role in the Indian growth story. The Indian economy grew primarily through domestic savings, which rose from 21 per cent of GDP in 1991-92 to as high as 37 per cent of GDP in 2009 and now hovers around 31 per cent. Domestic capital formation rose from 22 per cent in 1991-92 to a high of over 38 per cent in 2011-12.

    Besides, it is not export but household consumption, close to 60 per cent, which was the mainstay of the nation’s growth. (In contrast, household consumption in China is around 36 per cent, which implies the disproportionately high external dependence of China.) Net foreign investment in India during two decades of liberalisation averaged around 3 per cent of national investment. Foreign investment mainly funded external deficit more than development within. Domestic impulses — in terms of both investment and demand — were therefore the core factors in the Indian growth story, the external forces being additives, though not unimportant. The world began taking notice of India as a domestically driven economy.

    Additionally, the Global Entrepreneur Monitor Study (2002) found that India (18 per cent) was ahead of China (12 per cent) and US (11 per cent) in entrepreneurship. This helped brand India as entrepreneur-led. But the Indian-establishment economists would still underplay the domestic impulses and speak and celebrate only the role of the external drivers in the Indian growth story.

    Stable Families

    What is often, if not totally, missed in the Indian discourse, and in the budget making, is the undeniable fact that the household sector is the strongest and stablest component of the Indian economy. Family savings rose from 16 per cent of GDP in 1991-92 to a high of 25 per cent in 2009-10. This is because of the relation-based cultural life that marks India out from the contract-based individualist West. Except for a fraction of ultra-westernised Indians, family is not a contract to live together, terminable at will. It is an integrated cultural institution of mutually dependent persons bound by relationships of caring and sharing. It takes care of the elderly and the infirm, the ill and the jobless, which constitutes its propensity to save. In most of the West, family functions have been taken over by the State through social and health security, which, in substance, means nationalising families.

    The families being rid of their relational responsibilities, their propensity to save weakened and consequently the household savings in US which was 80 per cent of US national savings in 1960 nosedived to minus 20 per cent in the third quarter of 2006. Savings turned just a subject of personal choice of the atomised individual and ceased to be a cultural, filial responsibility. The sense of duty to the near and dear, more than one’s own rights, which is inherent in Indian family culture acts as the bulwark against the unbridled individualism of the modern West. It needs no seer to say that culturally India belongs to Asia, not Europe or America. As Barry Bosworth of the Brookings Institution wrote, in Asia savings are dynastic, not personal. The idea of a rational economic man, who acts only in his self-interest, does not apply to Asia or India where filial relations undermine self-interest.

    As families in the West were nationalised, traditional government functions like water supply, road building and public utilities, began to be privatised. Significantly, in the US, nationalisation of families and privatisation of government went hand in hand from around the late 1970s. Liberal economic policies, largely imported from the US, have not been able to change the cultural behaviour of Indian families. This was brought out in the Economic Survey 2007-8 (see page 3 Table 1.2/para 1.4). The income-consumption-saving for the period 1981-2 to 2007-8, which covered 10 years of command economy and 16 years of liberal economy demonstrated that the ratio of spending to savings declined from 64 per cent in 1991-2 to 58 per cent in 2007-8 — implying that Indian families have defied consumerist trends encouraged by new economic policies. Noting this fact, the Survey says, “The average growth of consumption is slower than that average growth of income primarily because of rising savings rates.” It concludes: “Year to year changes in consumption also suggest that the rise in consumption is more gradual and steady process, as any sharp changes in income tend to get adjusted in savings rate.”

    The behavioural model of Indian households has a lesson for policy makers — that is, shopping is not, and cannot become, central to Indian families. But, in the US, as the famous American anthropologist Marshall Sahlins says shopping is the culmination of modernity. When an Indian household gets extra income it does not go straightaway to the shops. It saves rather than spends it. If the Pay Commission report is implemented, it will not cause instant inflation as the RBI governor seems to fear. This cultural differential is missed in the economic discourse and therefore in policy-making in India.

    Similar to Japan, not US

    Indian families, generally like Asian ones and particularly like the Japanese, are hooked to banks as the preferred savings vehicle. The bank deposits to GDP ratio in India was 34 per cent in 1992, and is over 70 per cent now — doubling as a proportion of GDP. The Indian stock market yielded a compounded annual return of 14 per cent between 1991 and 2015. Despite that the people have queued up before banks to deposit their savings. The share of equities in the total savings stood at less than 2 per cent in seven out of the 11 years (2004 to 2014). It exceeded 3 per cent only in three years (2007 to 2008) when there was an unprecedented boom in the stock markets. In the four years ending fiscal 2014, the share of stocks in national savings has been less than 2 per cent.

    Elite economic thinkers often fault Indian families, which seek safe investment models, as backward and unenlightened. Some even fault them for saving too much. In early 1990s, Dr Jagdish Bhagwati, the India-born US economist, advised the Indian government to make policies to cut family savings by half so their consumption spend would rise. Fortunately, Indian families defied his advice. Actually, as their incomes expanded, Indian families ramped up their savings but maintained their moderate consumption. They lived within their incomes and hardly borrowed to spend. This alone insulated India from the contagion effect of the global crisis in 2008. Had Indian families followed the prescription of experts, they would not have saved as much as they did, which dramatically increased the national investment and GDP. Nor would they have avoided debts that would have risked and even bankrupted them. Indian families compare favourably with Japanese households which too are habituated to save and, like Indians, are also addicted to keeping their savings in banks, not in risky stocks. The economists of the West used to deride the Japanese financial system as inefficient for this reason. But when the monetary crisis hit the West, the Bank of Japan had the last laugh and proudly claimed that the Japanese financial system was safe and sound unlike the Western.

    In a paper published in the Bank of International Settlements Site (BIS paper no 46, May 2009) two officials of the Bank of Japan (Shinobu Nakagawa and Yosuke Yasui) wrote: “The average Japanese household has a financial balance sheet that is far more conservative” than that of households in West, with “cash and deposits” representing “half of total financial assets”. In contrast, the ratio for US households is only 16 per cent and in Europe, about one-fourth to one-third. The authors asked, “Why do Japanese households prefer deposits so much over more risky financial assets” when other financial instruments are well-developed and heavily traded in Japan, unlike in some other Asian markets? They answered, “the elderly Japanese were educated to believe that saving through bank deposits was a virtue”. They went on to assert “that the Japanese household sector, far from being a shock originator, is rather a shock absorber” even as they admitted that the risk is therefore “concentrated in the Japanese banking system”, which “continues to be a matter to resolve.”

    This is precisely the Indian situation. The risk of financing business is on the Indian banks like it is on the banks in Japan. The Japanese banks, like the Indian ones, also have the same issue of Non-Performing Assets. How they handle the NPA problem will be relevant to India. But the RBI, prone to looking at the West, ignores the Japanese parallel, which is nearer to the Indian filial and financial system. With the result that the RBI is strangulating the Indian economy by applying Western standards when the nation is struggling to come out of almost a decade of economic destruction by the UPA, particularly UPA II. This is a topic by itself.


    The author is a well-known commentator on economic and political affairs.

    Published in The New India Express on 19th February 2016. Image Source: https://en.wikipedia.org
    (Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the Vivekananda International Foundation) - See more at: http://www.vifindia.org/article/2016/march/08/indian-economy-for-dummies-II#sthash.lXe4Ickv.dpuf
     
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  4. CrYsIs

    CrYsIs Regular Member

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    India is far from being an export oriented economy,despite being the 2nd largest country,it's the 16th largest exporter,behind small countries like Singapore,Hong kong

    and it will take decades for India to reach a target of 1 trillion $.

    And as for patents are concerned,it's nowhere near the top leagues.

    And as for being a developed country in the next 35 years,lets first dream of making India a proper developing country because with a malnutrition rates at par with North Korea,living standards at par with worst of Sub saharan africa it struggles to be even classed as a developing country .

    India manufactures very few stuffs because Indian government policies historically prevented it from becoming a manufacturing oriented economy.The only place where Indian manufacturing has been a success is the automobile sector.It's a complete dud in heavy machinaries,it's aerospace sector is non existent like it's electronic sectors.
     
  5. Indx TechStyle

    Indx TechStyle Perfaarmance Naarmal Senior Member

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    Decades? :crazy:
    It is India not slow Mexico.
    India will have 3-4 trillion exports in 13 years at minimum.
    It's still respectable among developimg countries. At no. 11 necnext year for 7.
    Fool a person who doesn't know about North Korea, sub Saharn Africa and global economic conditions, not me. :p
    Do you know, I have been to China and Vietnam as a tourist once.
    Though their larger cities are better, you can't differentiate in common cities.

    Malnutrition at par with North Korea?(they are three-four times worse)
    Living standard comparable to sub Saharan Africa?(People who can't afford motorcycle
    :scared2:
    From which planet you are?
    :tsk:
    For electronic industry, go through FAB thread. :D
    You say India has only automobile industry and nothing then, go to Made in India thread.

    FYI, My data is influenced by IMF, WB, USTPO, UNDP and ISO tec.
    So, I would love to know about a source which is more reliable. :biggrin2:
     
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  6. Indx TechStyle

    Indx TechStyle Perfaarmance Naarmal Senior Member

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    @CrYsIs Look man.
    From whichever country you are, if you want us to believe $hit spewed by AAP or media, prove it to us.
    We are Indians so calm, foreigners will laugh and insult you too much.
    This is DFI.
    here, information facts rule and not your speculations, imaginations and personal thoughts.
     
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  7. Superdefender

    Superdefender Regular Member

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    India is third in the world in enterpreneurs after USA and UK! Where is China? We may have to wait for some decades to catch up to USA, but we can easily surpass UK. "Start up India, Stand up India" has just begun. After one decade, we shall see hords of enterpreneurs with surge of innovations which leads to more patents. Current news is - Investors are prefering India the top most investing nation right now atleast in Asia-Pacific region. India has changed much in the decade 2005-2015. Don't worry about export. Just wait one decade from now.
     
  8. Superdefender

    Superdefender Regular Member

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    India is third in the world in enterpreneurs after USA and UK! Where is China? We may have to wait for some decades to catch up to USA, but we can easily surpass UK. "Start up India, Stand up India" has just begun. After one decade, we shall see hords of enterpreneurs with surge of innovations which leads to more patents. Current news is - Investors are prefering India the top most investing nation right now atleast in Asia-Pacific region. India has changed much in the decade 2005-2015. Don't worry about export. Just wait one decade from now.
     
  9. CrYsIs

    CrYsIs Regular Member

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    So apart from being a delusional guy,you are a magician too ? India will achieve a 3-4 trillion $ export from current 320 billion $ levels in just 13 years? and that too at a time when the whole world's economy is slowing down

    In 2013, India registered 43,031 patents in comparison to 8,25,136 patents by China, 5,71,612 patents by USA, 3,28,436 by Japan, 2,04,589 by Korea, 63,167 by Germany and 44,914 by Russia.

    "As per the WIPO statistics, the domestic and foreign patents filed in India per million population are far less than other countries. India registered 34.4 patents per million population in comparison to 4,037 by Korea, 2,579 by Japan, 1,806 by USA, 607 by China and 357 by United Kingdom.

    So as far as patent's are concerned India is nowhere in the picture.

    According to United Nations survey in 2012,30% of North Korean Children under 5 suffered from malnutrition which is slightly lower than India.Infact North Korea always had lower levels of malnutrition than India.Even sub saharan africa has lower levels of malnutrition than India.

    The same UN says that most major Indian states of India have similar levels of human development as Somialia,Sudan,Haiti and Congo.

    I said India makes handful of stuffs but not enough to meet either it's own requirements or for export.

    I work in the core industry and therefore i know how bad India's situation really is.
    And even the stuffs it builds are not necessarily made in Inda,it's mostly made in China and assembled in India.
     
  10. Navnit Kundu

    Navnit Kundu Pika Hu Akbarrr!! Senior Member

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    If shameless UPA hadn't messed up our economy with their corruption, we'd have been at a much better place now. This applies even for defense. The world is grinding their swords to prep for a world war and we are still begging others for weapons deals and losing foreign currency by the day.

    Had our arsenal been ready, we could have taken a more assertive stance in the M.E conflicts and extracted good economic deals for ourselves. Iran could pay us in oil, if we intervene on their behalf, on the other hand joining the Iran-Kurd alliance would kill two birds with one stone by making our #FreeBalochistan mission easier since the Kurds are pro-Balochistan. Everything is messed up because of UPA's corruption during their second tenure. Now instead of acting like global player, we have to beg China to stop defending Masood Azhar while they continue with their CPEC to compete with our Chabar project. There was a news yesterday that even Iran is demanding to be paid in Euros instead of Rupees. This is a good lesson in how a weak economy not only makes us poorer, but it also makes the nation less secure.

    Economy, strategy and security are all interlinked but thanks to UPA's zero loss economic theory, we have zero leverage now.
     
  11. garg_bharat

    garg_bharat Senior Member Senior Member

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    It is true that factories are employing less not more; due to automation.

    Most jobs are being added to service sector or informal sector.

    This is also true that banks are unable or unwilling to lend to the informal sector.

    Cooperative banks have largely failed in India.

    If government can devise a banking system that can sustain informal sector, then India can see very high rates of growth.
     
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  12. ezsasa

    ezsasa Senior Member Senior Member

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    I believe this has started..

    Mudra bank should definitely help..
    Payment banks due next year will definitely help..
    Mobile banking should help even more...

    Beyond these , I am not aware of any current plans...
     
  13. Indx TechStyle

    Indx TechStyle Perfaarmance Naarmal Senior Member

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    Indian Economy is accelerating. That's enough reason.
    Even Apple is looking for moving manufacturing in India from China.
    I'm talking of 2015. Anyway, from last decade, India is only country third world. who can rank here.
    Pak has 16, BD has 2.
    Again data of 2012.
    I'm from a Rich family but I was also classified malnutritioned because of improper diet. :p
    In terms of living standards, Indians are light years ahead of your Korean and African masters.
    Ever have a visit to these countries and then, to ASEAN and China.
    Then, talk to me. Our living standards are more resembling with them.
    Oh really? :rotflmao:
    Here's source, compare your most of States.


    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_Human_Development_Index

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Indian_states_and_territories_by_Human_Development_Index
    Handful? It's world's fifth industrial output. :D
    Getting export room through land caused export problem.
    Government has a new spice route program like China's silk corridor.
    When implemented, India will be a surplus adding economy in import export.
    FYI, your western masters like USA and UK import more than India.
    Obviously, you are working in an Assembly industry then. I've been manager of many projects where we made and sold Indigenous products.
    Till then, I've seen only Chinese duplicate maal in market, first time, we sold ours there.

    Anyway, go to China. I've been there.
    Their regular streets, lifestyles etc. are very similar to us. :biggrin2:


    Do you know, between 2014-16, India made the poverty to half, lifestyle, HDI and Education Index to leap?
     
    Last edited: Apr 17, 2016
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  14. Indx TechStyle

    Indx TechStyle Perfaarmance Naarmal Senior Member

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    @Superdefender Used IMF numbers and Fertility Variant with population (for accuracy) to find GDPs per capita of India.
    $9200 for 2020.
    $14200 for 2030
    $21500 for 2040
    $33500 for 2050
    And $47000 for 2060.
    I could have also find 2025, 35, 45 and 55 but would be inaccurate because Fertility is put in decade.

    How about creating a thread on Indian Smart Cities and Urban Development?
    @CrYsIs will also come to know something about India. :D
     
  15. Superdefender

    Superdefender Regular Member

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    Those are ppp figures. So per capita income of $8000 in nominal can't be achieved before 2030. However nominal gdp will continue to rise. GDP will be $2.4 trillion at 2016 end. I think we should safely reach $2.8 trillion at 2017 end.
     
  16. Indx TechStyle

    Indx TechStyle Perfaarmance Naarmal Senior Member

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    I have data on that too.
    Our projected Nominal GDP per capita for 2030 is $6958(near about $7000).
    So, PPP vs Nominal Ratio has declined to 2.035 instead of today's, 3.668. :peace:
     
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  17. CrYsIs

    CrYsIs Regular Member

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    High economic growth for 1 or 2 years means nothings,for India to make a significant impact it needs to maintain the current growth rate for atleast the next 20 years.
    With a regressive industrial policy and ranked worse than many closed economies in ease of doing business,it remains to be seen how India becomes a manufacturing and export based economy.
    And Apple is thinking of moving to India but not moved yet.Brag abut it when they do so.

    For your information ,in 2015,India did even worse than the previous year.
    "
    Despite the government’s Make in India programme, India continues to perform poorly in the “incidence and location of innovation” with international patent applications filed from the country dropping slightly to 1,423 last year—as compared to Japan’s 44,235, China’s 29,846 and South Korea’s 14,626 in the same period.

    In 2014, India filed 1,428 international patent applications as against 42,381 by Japan, 25,548 by China and 13,117 by South Korea, according to the latest figures released by the Geneva-based World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO)."


    I have quoted the figures from Rapid Survey on Children (RSOC), conducted by the ministry of women and child development in 2013-14 in league with Unicef.According to it around 29.4% of Indian children are malnourished.


    8 Indian states = 25 African nations: Oxford study on poverty 2015

    There are 1.6 billion people living in multidimensional poverty across the world and nearly 440 million of them are in eight large Indian states, according to a new analysis using a unique index developed at the University of Oxford.

    The eight Indian states that have similar number of poor as in 25 African countries are Bihar, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Chattisgarh, Odisha, Rajasthan and West Bengal. The poorest region in south Asia is Bihar, the analysis states.
    Sabina Alkire, director of the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative, told Hindustan Times on Thursday that the least poor Indian states according to the global Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) in 2015 remained the same as in the 2010 analysis.
     
  18. CrYsIs

    CrYsIs Regular Member

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    @Indx TechStyle

    You are absolutely delusional and all your statements consists of future tenses like India will become this and that.Please focus on the present as without solving the present crisis you cannot build a rosy future.

    The India that i live in is a land where people struggle for clean drinking water and basic sanitation.When i travel around the rural hamlets i witness people along with animals bathing,washing clothes and defecating in the same polluted pond.

    The India that i live in has very few opportunities forcing millions of it's best and brightest to migrate abroad.Getting a job in this country is as hard as getting a diamond.


    The India that i live in is so heavily dependent on the west that if they chose to show their backs,we would fall apart in no time.
     
  19. garg_bharat

    garg_bharat Senior Member Senior Member

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    @Crysis,there are two sides of the coin. What you see is correct, but what @Indx TechStyle sees is also correct.

    India lives today in a duality. You come to DLF city in Gurgaon; and you will think you are in Singapore, but you just walk one km out and you are in a different world.

    However all parts of India are developing. Even parts of city which resembled a ghetto just a few years back have concrete roads, drinking water and sanitation now.

    India will continue to be like this for 20-30 years more. The massive population and shortage of land and water resources will mean that there are no easy or quick solutions.
     
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  20. garg_bharat

    garg_bharat Senior Member Senior Member

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    I see a India GDP of around 6T in 2030-31. The population is stabilizing now and it may not grow much above 1.3B. So a reasonable per capita of 4500$ can be expected in 2030-31. However this calculation assumes persistent growth and favorable circumstances like good political environment.
     
  21. Indx TechStyle

    Indx TechStyle Perfaarmance Naarmal Senior Member

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    If talking of working without west, we have remained without them for 40 years. :p
    Now, for rosy future, India was poorest among all South Asian countries and was projected to beat all of them up.
    That came true very smoothly.

    IMO, you must be a kid living in a slum accidentally got a smartphone to waste my time on DFI. That's why you have never seen development in India.
    Where do you live? Bihar, Odisha or Chhattisgarh?

    If you think west is so great and India is $hithole, kindly go there.
    India has stood up without for 40+ years. And if today corporating, it's giving them investments.

    I can see from richness to poverty everything in India and will work for my nation to eliminate it. You think Indian manufacturing is useless, please stop using Indian products (even in foreign).

    Or whenever India turns into what I said, don't step back here with your inferiority complex.


    Really, a pathetic person who thinks Indian living standards are at par with North Korea and Africa must be in a mental hospital, not a defense forum.
    :facepalm:
     
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