Indian boots on ground in Afghanistan

[Sakal Gharelu Ustad]

The idea is to increase the stakes for Pak on its western borders once US leaves. Should India forge an active military alliance with Afghanistan and put boots on ground? It would be a high stakes game and can destabilize Pak.

Now some questions:
Viability- economically? Will Afghanistan allow it?
Feasibility- can IA pull it off? How many soldiers can we contribute and in what capacity? Training/ supply of weapons?
Benefits- can this move allow us to entrench RAW deep inside Afghanistan and Baluchistan? Can we fund bad Taliban to wreak havoc in Pak?

It will be a high risk game but can give potential benefits. It can take focus of PA from Eastern to the western front. Confuse their military preparations.

India can take off it's soldiers from UN peace keeping missions and go there. We should not get involved in flushing out terrorists on a day to day basis but use it as a base to protect some of our interests. Also, it will allow us to watch the game from much closer and increase the stakes for Pak and force it to commit more blunders.

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[Srinivas_K]

India is helping to build Afghanistan, I think we should support them with aid and training.

There are already some small commando force(ITBP) protecting Indian establishment there.

India has some long term initiatives there.

I think allowing UN peace keeping force in Afghanistan is a good idea.

 

[Screambowl]

Now some questions:
Viability- economically? Will Afghanistan allow it?
Feasibility- can IA pull it off? How many soldiers can we contribute and in what capacity? Training/ supply of weapons?
Benefits- can this move allow us to entrench RAW deep inside Afghanistan and Baluchistan? Can we fund bad Taliban to wreak havoc in Pak?

It will be a high risk game but can give potential benefits. It can take focus of PA from Eastern to the western front. Confuse their military preparations.

India can take off it's soldiers from UN peace keeping missions and go there. We should not get involved in flushing out terrorists on a day to day basis but use it as a base to protect some of our interests. Also, it will allow us to watch the game from much closer and increase the stakes for Pak and force it to commit more blunders.

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the question should be will Taliban allow it? Yes as they are deobandi faction and it'S time to play religion card.

 

[Sakal Gharelu Ustad]

the question should be will Taliban allow it? Yes as they are deobandi faction and it'S time to play religion card.

That will come later. Before that India needs to ask itself whether it is worth it?

 

[Sakal Gharelu Ustad]

Why waste India's money&time by deploying our army in Afghan?

UN&NATO are already doing it.If they want to vacate go&shout in every international forum how US,Pak&West destroyed Peaceful Afghan so this is their duty to stabilize afghan still afghans rule themselves.

Supply weapons,Intelligence sharing(Raw/Cia),send huge Indian force everything with Nato or UN label.

Indian govt is during it silently above like army training/schools/roads/port etc.

But remember one thing Pakistan never ever allow Peaceful Afghanistan either Taliban rule or civil-war.

Exactly, it will rattle Pak and make them go mad that India is ready to take war on its western front. It will change all the current equations.

India can charge UN or US for the job!!

 

[Razor]

That will come later. Before that India needs to ask itself whether it is worth it?

Here's what I think: Whether it is worth it depends on what we put in (input) and what it yields (o/p). Right?
ip, you say is troops, but I don't think o/p is fixed because the situation is in flux and will be for the foreseeable future, and therefore, in effect, we are unable to determine the profit (whether it is worth it?)
Also to note: the region is of great geopolitical interest to all great powers: US, Rus, Chn and others. So o/p will also be dependent on how much of the afghan pie these powers are willing to yield.

But personally, yes India should put troops in Afg, and should take the forefront in training afg troops, assuming this is possible; because this country is too important and too close to india.

 

[AnantS]

Not Needed Because:

1. You are going to piss Afghanis faster than you piss Pakistanis off . Simply because Afghanistan is ethno-tribal conflict quagmire. You will have to appease some tribes, thereby pissing of rival tribes and vice versa. All Pakistan China, US, UK has to do is to arm pissed of Afghani tribals to create hell for India.
   
   
2. Its much cheaper and ,much better in long run, if India trains Afghan Officers, Bureacrats, scientists, doctors and maintain more people to people/cultural contact. Nostalgia is effective tool for diplomacy.
   
   
3. India has token presence of CISF commandos to protect workers and embassy. And that should suffice for now. This can be increased a bit more, if Afghanis ask for and India needs to protect infrastructure projects. I would rather prefer India helps Afghanistan build loyal disciplined army. That will provide better more effective tool against Pakistanis. Afghanis hate Paki equal or more than India(barring Pashtuns or Let/Al Qaida affiliates) India can arm Afghanistan as per her needs.
   
   
4. India should train and help structure Afghani intelligence agency. We have a lot of common interests
   
   
5. Private INdian companies should start sellings logistic/combat vehicles in Afghanistan. This will give them immense experience and feedback. Generate goodwill and strong fan following among Afghanis, just like China did in Pak or Soviet did in India.

 

[LETHALFORCE]

India has already started arming afghans. India wanted to put boots on the ground few years ago but Obama rejected it


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[Srinivas_K]

That will come later. Before that India needs to ask itself whether it is worth it?

It is worth because India is gaining an old ally in the heart of Asia.

If India can pull this move well and good, then India will be in a good position. India is doing this on the request of Afghans and economics is a different debate even economically this move is feasible.

Yes Afghanistan is a quagmire, but opportunities come with challenges.

India has common interests with Russia, Iran and some central asian countries in Afghanistan. But the shadow of double games by the west will always be there, they will help Pakistan, aid it as pakistan continues to support Jihad and Taliban.

Basically it is the game played to balance out the emerging powers, Pakistan + China and India + Afghanistan. The shadow hand is the west.

Once the differences between India and China are resolved or clarity is obtained then the whole game play changes. The immediate requirement is to establish good relationship with China and have a good understanding on Afghan issue.

If India ignores Afghanistan, the Jihadi fire will reach Kashmir and other parts of India, if the Radical ideology is contained and the space for radical elements is denied in Afghanistan it will be win - win situation for India and Afghanistan.

 

[Sakal Gharelu Ustad]

Here's what I think: Whether it is worth it depends on what we put in (input) and what it yields (o/p). Right?
ip, you say is troops, but I don't think o/p is fixed because the situation is in flux and will be for the foreseeable future, and therefore, in effect, we are unable to determine the profit (whether it is worth it?)
Also to note: the region is of great geopolitical interest to all great powers: US, Rus, Chn and others. So o/p will also be dependent on how much of the afghan pie these powers are willing to yield.

But personally, yes India should put troops in Afg, and should take the forefront in training afg troops, assuming this is possible; because this country is too important and too close to india.

We have been doing soft stuff for too long and now need to change the game a bit. Screw US if Afghanistan wants some 5-10k troops there i.e. build an Indian base.

We should be ready to mess up there because India does not share a boundary with Af and we need to do it to rattle Pak. Ofcourse, some tribes will oppose Indian move but that is part of the game. Also, I am not asking to commit ourselves like US i.e. spend billions of $. Actually, it will give a huge boost to local defence manufacturing and Indian economy can take this increased expenditure as investment.

 

[Srinivas_K]

India has already started arming afghans. India wanted to put boots on the ground few years ago but Obama rejected it


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It is not Obama who opposed Indian troop deployment, USA has requested many times Indian establishment to venture into Afghanistan but Indian establishment refused to go there.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...-afghanistan/2012/06/06/gJQAfGZKIV_story.html

NEW DELHI — The upcoming withdrawal of NATO-led troops from Afghanistan and the rising power of China loomed large in talks Wednesday between Defense Secretary Leon E. Panetta and top Indian officials.

During a two-day stop here, Panetta urged Indian officials to take a “more active role” in Afghanistan and tried to allay their concerns about a new U.S. strategy for Asia that aims in part to counterbalance China’s increasing influence and military power.

 

[Scarface]

Military bases in Afghanistan should be established to put some pressure on Pakis but we should stay out of their politics.Afghans are too volatile.

 

[AnantS]

India has already started arming afghans. India wanted to put boots on the ground few years ago but Obama rejected it


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Actually India offered troops when Bush decided to Punish Talli bunders. India offered its assitance to US, by offering to send its troops to Afghanistan along with US. Bush used it as a leverage against Pakistan and used it for arm twisting Pakistan to gain concessions. With India main area of disagreement came, US wanted Indian Army to be put under US command for operations in Afghanistan and India wanted Indian Army to be under its own Command. Hence the proposal fizzled.

 

[LETHALFORCE]

Actually India offered troops when Bush decided to Punish Talli bunders. India offered its assitance to US, by offering to send its troops to Afghanistan along with US. Bush used it as a leverage against Pakistan and used it for arm twisting Pakistan to gain concessions. With India main area of disagreement came, US wanted Indian Army to be put under US command for operations in Afghanistan and India wanted Indian Army to be under its own Command. Hence the proposal fizzled.

They could have been placed under the UN flag.


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[AnantS]

We have been doing soft stuff for too long and now need to change the game a bit. Screw US if Afghanistan wants some 5-10k troops there i.e. build an Indian base.

We should be ready to mess up there because India does not share a boundary with Af and we need to do it to rattle Pak. Ofcourse, some tribes will oppose Indian move but that is part of the game. Also, I am not asking to commit ourselves like US i.e. spend billions of $. Actually, it will give a huge boost to local defence manufacturing and Indian economy can take this increased expenditure as investment.

How much India is capable of handling multi party conflict with different interests, can be inferred from IPKF experience.

Indian people will not be ready to accept body bags of their soldiers in conflict zone where local and neighbors are opposed to its presence and benefits not direct. Geopolitics is somethings most common India dont understand and don't care. Since there will be no UN umbrella, incentives don't look great for military intervention. In this case clever chess needs to be played. You want to Punish Pakistan, you will have to do indirectly, because your aim would be to break already fractured Paki society and not give a reason to galvanize it. There is a reason when countries like china-pak face big internal conflict-infighting, they go to war..
You have been given levers: Baloch, Sindh, Baltistan .. you get the drift.. what I mean. India should use that.

 

[AnantS]

They could have been placed under the UN flag.


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US never likes much operating under UN flag. Remember US went their to show its anger and machoness, UN flag would be too insulting at that point for USA. As UN peace force is precisely for peace keeping or peace enforcement. That would not have suited USA.

 

[Sakal Gharelu Ustad]

How much India is capable of handling multi party conflict with different interests, can be inferred from IPKF experience.

Indian people will not be ready to accept body bags of their soldiers in conflict zone where local and neighbors are opposed to its presence and benefits not direct. Geopolitics is somethings most common India dont understand and don't care. Since there will be no UN umbrella, incentives don't look great for military intervention. In this case clever chess needs to be played. You want to Punish Pakistan, you will have to do indirectly, because your aim would be to break already fractured Paki society and not give a reason to galvanize it. There is a reason when countries like china-pak face big internal conflict-infighting, they go to war..
Baloch, Sindh, Baltistan .. you get the drift.. what I mean

Question is whether 5-10k troops are enough to rattle Pak and galvanize all its citizens. I doubt that. Specially if we can use Af for easier access to disturbed areas of Pak.

But yes- your first question is more pertinent i.e. whether Indians will be ready to accept this forced sacrifice of its soldiers. But it will not be IPKF type of operation. I do not want to use this to flush out and chase militants in Af, but to secure a foothold in Af.

 

[AnantS]

Question is whether 5-10k troops are enough to rattle Pak and galvanize all its citizens. I doubt that. Specially if we can use Af for easier access to disturbed areas of Pak.

A token of CISF force cause Pakistan to throw tantrums and spate of sucide bombings in Afghanistan, 5-10000 will be too less, and US will find excuse to internationalize Kashmir, "because Indian and Pakistan are together making South Asia unstable and they should sit to resolve Kashmir issue ...blah blah" will blared across. This time remember you dont have Russia's back.

But yes- your first question is more pertinent i.e. whether Indians will be ready to accept this forced sacrifice of its soldiers. But it will not be IPKF type of operation. I do not want to use this to flush out and chase militants in Af, but to secure a foothold in Af.

We don't have will nor money. Also once you send the troops, full participation in conflict is inevitable, because Pakistan would like that. Remember US and Soviet got bogged down in-spite of immense resources. China contemplated and avoided direct participation. Though it is best suited to participate after Pakistan and Russia(shared borders). No Army can fight without secure logistics. So where are you going to establish a steady logistic line, when both north and south afghan can become hostile in this situation? Dont tell me via Iran Chahbahar route: that is vulnerable to Iran's whims and fancies. It would also mean participation of Iran (direct/indirect). US would never like that!

And Afghanistan is too important for Russia, China and US after Pak, to allow India play lead role.
So, why waste energies on these conflicts when other non expensive but better strategies are available for AF-Pak from Indian POV? You have more pressing need of preparing Army for 2(or more) front war, and we are far from being ready for that.

 

[Sakal Gharelu Ustad]

A token of CISF force cause Pakistan to throw tantrums and spate of sucide bombings in Afghanistan, 5-10000 will be too less, and US will find excuse to internationalize Kashmir, "because Indian and Pakistan are together making South Asia unstable and they should sit to resolve Kashmir issue ...blah blah" will blared across. This time remember you dont have Russia's back.

Exactly that is my point. Imagine what a small force can do to rattle Pak. They do not even need to do much, but Pak will go maniac!

Concerning US, they can do nothing. 1) Neither US and Pak are as close as in 1971, 2) India is a much bigger power and do not need Russian backing. Also, US is not omnipotent and they can hardly contain any country. Russia screwed them twice in the last year in Ukraine and now Syria. And US could hardly do anything.

Also, there is a good chance to actually use US to back up our forces in Af. And may be even ask them to pay a bit!

We don't have will nor money. Also once you send the troops, full participation in conflict is inevitable, because Pakistan would like that. Remember US and Soviet got bogged down in-spite of immense resources. China contemplated and avoided direct participation. Though it is best suited to participate after Pakistan and Russia(shared borders). No Army can fight without secure logistics. So where are you going to establish a steady logistic line, when both north and south afghan can become hostile in this situation? Dont tell me via Iran Chahbahar route: that is vulnerable to Iran's whims and fancies. It would also mean participation of Iran (direct/indirect). US would never like that!

And Afghanistan is too important for Russia, China and US after Pak, to allow India play lead role.
So, why waste energies on these conflicts when other non expensive but better strategies are available for AF-Pak from Indian POV? You have more pressing need of preparing Army for 2(or more) front war, and we are far from being ready for that.

This is the biggest problem i.e. logistics. Probably, we will need to involve Iran, but not sure how big a role Iran will like to play. But given Iran is Af's neighbour they would like Af. to be stable if possible.

But as I mentioned at the beginning, it is a high risk game and with probably high returns. Of course, the current powers would not like it. Russia is spread too thin on Ukraine and Syria, so I do not think they can do much. Probably they can be brought on board to support India. China would be pissed off, but they can't do much other than pay more to Pakis. US again can be brought on our side, depending how we play our moves.

Also, I am not asking to raise a complete corps and send it to Af. We just need a division of 5-10k soldiers, so that they do not spread themselves too thin and not too many to generate the ire of Af people. If India keeps sitting like a lame duck, good opportunities will not arise in the future. Probably, Af will pass into the hands of Taliban again, if India does not engage proactively.

Yes, it would be expensive, but it can also be used to give a boost to local defence procurement.

 

[Indibomber]

Only time i would want Indian Army on ground is to secure our assets. There is no need for our boys to get killed. By sounds of it we will start mining ops in Afg and that's where we should have our men. Let islamic Ummah have fun otherwise.