Indian Armed Forces' strategy in Afghanistan after US leaves?

[Decklander]

USA has clearly announced that they may not even maintain a small force in Afgan after 2014. Afganistan on its own may not be able to sustain itself for long given the lack of industrial infra and lack of funds to fight the Taliban. So we are looking at a possibility of Afgan going back to the days of Taliban. I have following blueprint for India to deal with such a situation provided they get going on ground now and create a base for it now. My strategy is
1. Start a campaighn in Afganistan that Durandline is no more valid which is actually true and create a national hyteria for a demand for retaking the territories of FATA/NWFP/SWAT back into Afganistan. These areas are also energy rich and will give a direct border to India with Afgan and open doors to CIS India bypassing Pakistan. A direct border with India will also help many US companies to invest in the oil sector and mining sector of Afgan as they will find a ready market in India and also a very stable safe route for export.
2. Such a nationalistic demand will help us unite all factions of Afganistan into national mainstream and create a big pressure on Pakistan.
3. This will make Pak sponsored Taliban redundent as they will have to either chose pakistan or support the nationalistic demands of Afganistan if they want to rule them. This will reduce thr status in Afgan society as Afgans are already against Pakistan. This in turn will reduce pak influence, provide a hope to Pak based Pastoons to get integrated with thr brothers in Afgan and emerge as a strong force in this part of the world. All this must be coated with very generous dose of Afgan nationalism and pride and mentions of great History of Afgans.
4. Create another leader on the lines of Khan Abdul Gaffar Khan in Afganistan who will speak about progress and stability, education and wealth, empowerment and rebilding to restore the old glory of Afgans.
5. ANA strength should be incresed to over 500k and shud get trained in the use of best weapons with a good sprinkling of officers from IA to give them best advice as we did in Bangladesh with Mukti Bahini which had its core of officers comprising Bengali officers of Pak Army and officers from IA & IN.
6. India must impress US & UK to leave majority of equipment behind for ANA and bolster them with more russian equipment at the same time so that Indian officers can operate them for ANA. The IAF base in Tajikistan shud be upgraded to support aerial operations in support of ANA and India shud sign a strategic defense agreement with Afgan on lines of the agreements which India signed with USSR in the past and which Pak has now signed with China.
7. India has a great tech edge in creating low cost info tech devices and we must help start FM/AM radio stations with free distribution of radio sets to afgan families with a libral dose afgan culture and songs to be able to reach out to every afgan family and start the process of moulding thr mentality for a unified Afganistan. We must also boost infra for electricity and agriculture in Afgan by building Dams and deny water to Pakistan from Afgan side.
8. The protests against Pakistan must intensify with demand for areas beyond Durandline well before the withdrawal of US forces from Afgan and the entire border along Afgan-Pak border shud get hot with repeated appeals from Afgan/Pastoon leaders in Pasto to the Afgan refugees staying in Pak to return and help Afgan people to retake thr old territories. These appeals must be very highly punctuated with the great future wihich Afgan have considering the oil rich and mineral rich areas that it holds and show the Afgans of dreams of becoming as rich as the Arab world/ CIS countries.
9. The prospects of having direct borders with worlds two biggest market of the world and that too the most friendly to Afgans and the accompanied riches will make Afgans consider seriously a grand unification and stability in the region to throw out Taliban and become anti Pakistan.
10. India can than help ANA attack Pak and forcibly amalgamate the areas into Afganistan which were parts of Afganistan always.

ITI SIDDHAM. JAI SHREE RAAM.

 

[Yusuf]

Re: What should be the strategy of indian armed forces in afganistan a

It seems less of Indian Armed Forces strategy and more of a geo political game. When I read the title I was wondering if you actually were proposing Indian boots on the ground @Decklander.

Well, India will lose a lot if the US leaves in a hurry. Any chaos will not be in Indian interests.

If the Taliban unites with Astan govt, it means Taliban once again part of Afghan govt which is not good for India.

India's best option is to destabilize Pakistan.

 

[sayareakd]

Re: What should be the strategy of indian armed forces in afganistan a

it is our intdrest to keep af-pak hot, or else like before 9/11 all the talibs traffic would be diverted to J&k.

 

[t_co]

Re: What should be the strategy of indian armed forces in afganistan a

it is our intdrest to keep af-pak hot, or else like before 9/11 all the talibs traffic would be diverted to J&k.

Unfortunately, that is not the interest of the United States, nor China, nor Russia. All three nations would rather the Taliban find a large, convenient, nearby target that is not American, Chinese, or Russian.

 

[datguy79]

Re: What should be the strategy of indian armed forces in afganistan a

500k? who is going to pay for that?

There is a simpler way: India should recapture Gilgit and Baltistan.

 

[mki]

Re: What should be the strategy of indian armed forces in afganistan a

Unfortunately, that is not the interest of the United States, nor China, nor Russia. All three nations would rather the Taliban find a large, convenient, nearby target that is not American, Chinese, or Russian.

dont forget your western side is near to pak-af.. and you guys already have trouble in that part.

US did that mistake and you can see the results, even after beening thousands of miles away. 9/11, and several embassy bombing.
China is part of the world. If your neighbor burn, flames can reach to your own home any time with rough wind.

 

[t_co]

Re: What should be the strategy of indian armed forces in afganistan a

dont forget your western side is near to pak-af.. and you guys already have trouble in that part.

US did that mistake and you can see the results, even after beening thousands of miles away. 9/11, and several embassy bombing.
China is part of the world. If your neighbor burn, flames can reach to your own home any time with rough wind.

Exactly, which is why China would rather Afghanistan and Pakistan be peaceful, stable, and prosperous rather than locked in a civil war.

 

[SajeevJino]

India Have Enough Man power to deploy across Afghan...Only thing is we need Financial assist from Western countries and USA...

and Afghan is a Nice Overwatch through Pakistan...Installing a Airbase takes billions of Dollers..So Uncle Sam gives a Operational Airbase and some no. of AH 64 and Transport Helicopters comm devices and Assault Rifles as A gift ..

Is they gives these ^^ things....

 

[mki]

India Have Enough Man power to deploy across Afghan...Only thing is we need Financial assist from Western countries and USA...

and Afghan is a Nice Overwatch through Pakistan...Installing a Airbase takes billions of Dollers..So Uncle Sam gives a Operational Airbase and some no. of AH 64 and Transport Helicopters comm devices and Assault Rifles as A gift ..

Is they gives these ^^ things....

Isn't it, will be strategical mistake, as you are fighting a war with country, who entirely between your positions. I mean supply and logistics. and you know pakistan is mad dog. war between india and pak is inevitable, sooner or later. In that case your force strength is divided. and what will be the guaranty, that in war Afghanistan give as full support, and allow us to fight from their land? Or like russia and us, afghan will not see us as occupier...

 

[nrj]

US will leave Astan soon, yesterday's news gives some hint on that. Only covert ops will continue.

It doesn't necessarily mean that Talib forces will focus on JK. Putting Indian boots in Afghanistan or carrying low-key operations will however mean inviting trouble & undoing last decade's smart strategy of not getting involved in Astan formulated by KS Subbu/ABV.

But Indian Intel ops must intensify. I will add more later.

Sent via Tapatalk from a galaxy far far away

 

[amoy]

SCO + Pakistan will have to take up the burden once the security freeloading is gone.

Obama, Karzai accelerate end of U.S. combat role in Afghanistan | Reuters

Both leaders also threw their support behind tentative Afghan reconciliation efforts with Taliban insurgents, endorsing the establishment of a Taliban political office in Qatar in hopes of bringing insurgents to inter-Afghan talks.

The future of Afghanistan: 4 questions facing Obama and Karzai - CNN.com

This week, Karzai gave the Pentagon a wish list of hardware such as drones and helicopters that he said would help him continue to fight terrorists.

No dollar amount has been decided. Estimates range from $1 billion to $10 billion a year -- and that includes military expenses, hardware and training, the whole deal that Afghanistan couldn't afford on its own.

"These are really funny numbers because no one knows the extent of what the U.S. is willing to offer," Lemmon notes.

 

[DivineHeretic]

It is extremely necessary that our JSCOC gets approved and becomes fully operational post 2014. It alongwith RAW will be the covert end of our foreign policy as far as Afg. is concerned.

I guess everyone is aware that bar Pak, and perhaps China, none of the countries neighbouring Afg. will tolerate a taliban return to power in Kabul. And then there is the US which will not lie to see its interests in the region slide.

We, the Russians, The Iranians and the Tajiks chose our side long before the WoT. It will not change anytime soon. There is already Russia preparing its staging ground in Tajikistan, setting up bases which will eventually support the logistics of the Northern Alliance should the US leave completely. The Russians, Indians & the Iranians are already in sync as far as their objectives in Afg. are concerned and are involved in trilateral and even multilateral dialogue to deal with the Taliban threat.

The Russians SF has already conducted raids in Afg. although it was primarily a drug raid. But this does signal a willingness on their part to involve military in this mess. My guess is India is also preparing to support the NA led govt. with covert operation though it may not be in the form of spec ops.

 

[datguy79]

I wish some of you people actually had any idea about what you are talking

Over the past calender year, 80% of the operations were conducted by Afghans, we currently are exclusively responsible for the security of 75% of the country covering 90% of the population, and by the spring we will have control over all military operations and areas.

The Taliban are more akin to Naxalites than any military that can hold territory because attacking in large numbers will expose them to aerial bombardment, so they are reduced to units of no more than 20-30; and are also greatly out-manned. All these "post-2014 chaos" stories are produced because they make better headlines and are far removed from ground realities.

 

[amoy]

I guess everyone is aware that bar Pak, and perhaps China, none of the countries neighbouring Afg. will tolerate a taliban return to power in Kabul. And then there is the US which will not lie to see its interests in the region slide.

Why would Russia and Tajik and Iran like to be quagmired in a hopeless fight against Taliban after both USSR and USA have failed?

Most likely they'd have no problem with regards to a "reconciliation" deal with a GOOD Taliban that serves their interests too. SCO is the perfect "all-inclusive" platform.

U.S. may remove all troops from Afghanistan after 2014 - CNN.com

 

[DivineHeretic]

Why would Russia and Tajik and Iran like to be quagmired in a hopeless fight against Taliban after both USSR and USA have failed?

Most likely they'd have no problem with regards to a "reconciliation" deal with a GOOD Taliban that serves their interests too. SCO is the perfect "all-inclusive" platform.

U.S. may remove all troops from Afghanistan after 2014 - CNN.com

Neither of the three country will intervene directly militarily in Afg. but be absolutely clear that neither will tolerate a taliban govt. In Afg. Russia is already preparing to support the NA led govt. once US leaves, which itself is unlikely. The dislike of the Russians can be easily understood from the fact that despite their differences with US and NATO over the missile defence shield, the Russians provide air bases and routes to support the INSAF forces in Afg. Says something about reconcilliation doesn't it?

When the whole west was going gaga over good taliban and negotiations with them these were the only three countries alongwith India which warned against any such move. Reconcilliation is out of question for all these countries, because return of taliban presents a very real threat to the national security and even territorial integrity of these countries. Amd these are non negotiable to any one.

 

[DivineHeretic]

Why would Russia and Tajik and Iran like to be quagmired in a hopeless fight against Taliban after both USSR and USA have failed?

Most likely they'd have no problem with regards to a "reconciliation" deal with a GOOD Taliban that serves their interests too. SCO is the perfect "all-inclusive" platform.

U.S. may remove all troops from Afghanistan after 2014 - CNN.com

Neither of the three country will intervene directly militarily in Afg. but be absolutely clear that neither will tolerate a taliban govt. In Afg. Russia is already preparing to support the NA led govt. once US leaves, which itself is unlikely. The dislike of the Russians can be easily understood from the fact that despite their differences with US and NATO over the missile defence shield, the Russians provide air bases and routes to support the INSAF forces in Afg. Says something about reconcilliation doesn't it?

When the whole west was going gaga over good taliban and negotiations with them these were the only three countries alongwith India which warned against any such move. Reconcilliation is out of question for all these countries, because return of taliban presents a very real threat to the national security and even territorial integrity of these countries. Amd these are non negotiable to any one.

 

[amoy]

Neither of the three country will intervene directly militarily in Afg. but be absolutely clear that neither will tolerate a taliban govt. In Afg. Russia is already preparing to support the NA led govt. once US leaves, which itself is unlikely. The dislike of the Russians can be easily understood from the fact that despite their differences with US and NATO over the missile defence shield, the Russians provide air bases and routes to support the INSAF forces in Afg. Says something about reconcilliation doesn't it?

When the whole west was going gaga over good taliban and negotiations with them these were the only three countries alongwith India which warned against any such move. Reconcilliation is out of question for all these countries, because return of taliban presents a very real threat to the national security and even territorial integrity of these countries. Amd these are non negotiable to any one.

Everything is possible in realpolitik. Erstwhile enemies become bhai that's nothing new. My reconciliation refers to that among different forces within AFG.

Like Akhmad Kadyrov - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia , a Chechen Islamist and militia leader who was the Chief Mufti of the Chechen Republic of Ichkeria in the 1990s during and after the First Chechen War. At the outbreak of the Second Chechen War he switched sides, offering his service to the Russian government, and later became the President of the Chechen Republic from 5 October 2003, acting as head of administration since July 2000.

And China brokered a peace deal among confronting factions of Cambodia including China-backed King Sihanouk and Khmer Rouge, vs. Vietnam-propped Hun Sen.

It may be too early to draw an analogy here. However, reality will drive them to "tolerate" Taliban so long as their interest is served.

 

[JBH22]

India's (UPA) Approach on matters pertaining national security, defence and foreign policy

 

[arya]

we dont have any policy till now . Lets see

 

[Joji]

Triangular ODI series Ind vs Pak vs Afghan.