India’s Quiet Counter-China Strategy

Discussion in 'Internal Security' started by LETHALFORCE, Aug 10, 2011.

  1. LETHALFORCE

    LETHALFORCE Moderator Moderator

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    India’s Quiet Counter-China Strategy | The Diplomat

    The devastating earthquake and tsunami that struck north-eastern Japan last week may well delay a proposed naval exercise between India, the United States and Japan scheduled for early April. But irrespective of when it takes place, Exercise Malabar will see the Japanese Navy involved for the second year running in this joint India-US exercise.

    At first glance, this may seem routine. But in the context of recent tensions in the Asia-Pacific region, as well as last year’s intensifying rhetoric among countries with interests in the South China Sea, this annual exercise is assuming greater significance.

    Exercise Malabar, originally envisaged as a bilateral US-India venture, had already assumed a higher profile in 2007 when Singapore, Japan and Australia joined the manoeuvres in the Bay of Bengal, prompting Beijing to issue demarches to all five participating countries. From China’s point of view, the coming together of these five countries marked the beginning of a loose anti-China naval barrier in the Indian Ocean region.

    Following China’s protest, New Delhi and Washington refrained from inviting a third country for joint exercises held in 2008 and 2009. But last year, it quietly allowed Japan to participate in exercises off the coast of Okinawa. With Japanese participation failing to provoke a political storm, India decided it was happy for the Japanese Maritime Self-Defence Force to join in again this April.

    According to the US Navy, the aim of the exercises is to ‘strengthen the stability of the Pacific Region.’ India, though, officially dismisses this sweeping rhetoric, arguing that the exercises are simply a learning opportunity for the Indian Navy. Sources say the emphasis of this latest ‘learning exercise’ for the Indian Navy will be on anti-submarine warfare, surface warfare, air defence, live-fire gunnery training, and visit, board, search and seizure (VBSS) operations.

    So what is Japan’s interest in taking part? For a start, while Japan’s relations with Moscow and Beijing are erratic, India is seen as a stable and reliable long-term partner, a point underscored by Japan’s recently released National Defence Programme Guidelines.

    After touching on the United States and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), which provide the traditional parameters of Japanese interests, the guidelines state that Japan must increase its cooperation with India and other countries that share the common interest of enhancing the security of maritime navigation from Africa to the Middle East to East Asia.

    India, for its part,hopes to secure access to defence platforms and technologies that Japan has made a priority, such as maritime patrol, air defences, ballistic missile responses, transportation and command communications.
     
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  3. Tshering22

    Tshering22 Sikkimese Saber Senior Member

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    Don't see how does this serve any practicality until it needles CCP the way it needles other countries.
     
  4. arya

    arya Senior Member Senior Member

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    well sorry just theory in the article but reality and practice fact are missing
     
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  5. Yusuf

    Yusuf GUARDIAN Administrator

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    It does serve the purpose if there is anything more than just "practice" and to learn from others. It sure is the beginning of an alliance to secure individual interest against a common threat.

    The next cold war will be in the IOR.
     
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  6. Tshering22

    Tshering22 Sikkimese Saber Senior Member

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    Cold war will be in IOR for sure. But you must know how fragile and opportunistic this alliance is. As much as we'd like to see it strengthen, it will still remain very fragile. Simply because Japanese are too dependent on what US says and Australia is a liability. And we all know how fast White House changes positions overnight, when seen from a medium to long term perspective.

    There are a lot of skeletons in its cupboard that the whole world knows of. While it can be called a loose agreement, alliance would be an overstatement.
     
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  7. Dovah

    Dovah Untermensch Senior Member

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    LOL...the Kangaroos would be pissed.

    True.True.
     
  8. Yusuf

    Yusuf GUARDIAN Administrator

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    Alliances are marriages of convenience, they are formed to serve individual interests which can served by coming together.
     
  9. Virendra

    Virendra Moderator Moderator

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    And alliances keep on changing. Nothing is permanent in geo politics.
     
  10. Yusuf

    Yusuf GUARDIAN Administrator

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    Yes we could well see an alliance between India and the US to take on china and say after 40 years someone else will be forming an alliance against the then super power India.
     
  11. LETHALFORCE

    LETHALFORCE Moderator Moderator

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    A common threat forms alliances. There is no reason to make any alliance "official" to please anybody. India is a part of Asia and will act to protect it's interests as the need arises. The Indian ocean region is the most important ocean in the world as far as global commerce goes. 75% of the world oil supply goes thru the IOR. There is no way USA or other powers even(Russia) would let IOR fall to the Chinese. It would be an unofficial end to the Western world as we know today. This fact will always have India and USA and others join for this common interest and will continue to do so for decades to come.
     
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  12. roma

    roma NRI in Europe Senior Member

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    MOC's can be interesting - so have fun while they last !
     
  13. no smoking

    no smoking Senior Member Senior Member

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    Well, have you guy realy thought through this?

    Who is the first force in IOR? Who is the Second force in IOR? Who is the third?

    I can't see China powerfull enough to challenge US around west pacific in next 20 years, not to mention IOR. In IOR, india is in a far better position to challenge US dominance than China.
    You guys just don't realise a fact: china is counting on US navy to protect its oil line in IOR.
    So, you should say no power even Russia would allow IOR fall to the indians.
     
  14. LETHALFORCE

    LETHALFORCE Moderator Moderator

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    So if US is protecting Chinese oil line in the Indian ocean as you claim, USA has a good grip on the Chinese economy. Also Russians have good relations with India, leasing India leasing Akula and Tupolov's(unconfirmed) for IOR,so I don't see your point there. Hillary recently said she wants India to be more active in Asia/IOR . USA knows they have lost Pakistan to China so they need a more active Indian role in IOR especially with rising Chinese hegemony in the Pacific and South China seas.

    http://www.russiajournal.com/node/5506
    India set to lease Tupolev bombers

    http://articles.economictimes.india...1_east-and-act-east-india-asia-pacific-region
    21st century will be written in Asia and India will have a key role:Hillary Clinton

    http://www.deccanherald.com/content/177746/indias-look-east-policy-vital.html
    India’s look-east policy vital: Hillary
     
  15. Ray

    Ray The Chairman Defence Professionals Moderator

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    In military parlance, the exercise is an indication of - a threat in being.

    It means a message of the consequences of any aggressiveness that is not acceptable.

    The US exercises with India, Japan, Philippines, Vietnam (a rare activity!) and positioning of two naval ships permanently at Singapore, indicates that US' warning to China of the consequences.

    Unlike what the poster has stated that US is 'protecting' China's lifeline i.e. oil shipments, it is the other way around.The US is cautioning China of the consequences, where China would be strangulated and choked because the oil shipping would be interdicted.

    The US would also ensure that the Pakistan and Myanmar coast would be blockaded with the sixth Fleet, stationed in Bahrain.

    Vietnam is a Russian ally and Chinese action against Vietnam would be seen by Russia as hostile and with CAR nations under the Russian threat, the oil supplies overland to China would also be a question mark.

    Even if the CAR oil goes to China, it will be a drop in the ocean for the China's insatiable requirement of oil.

    All this will prove a death knell to Chinese boom in the economic and military fields.
     
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  16. no smoking

    no smoking Senior Member Senior Member

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    No, Ray, US is protecting freedom of sailing in IOR for everyone, not only for China. So, if india tries to block china's oil supply line, US will step in.

    The world is far more complex than you think.
     
  17. Yusuf

    Yusuf GUARDIAN Administrator

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    The freedom is there till the date you step on the toes of the US. any conflict will result in a choke in IOR, from Hormuz to Malacca.
     
  18. LETHALFORCE

    LETHALFORCE Moderator Moderator

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    Do you have a link? I never heard US was so concerned about China just the opposite. In naval exersises between USA and India they practiced blockade of choke points of Chinese oil routes.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]


    http://www.thecuttingedgenews.com/index.php?article=51980&pageid=21&pagename=Energy

    Beijing feared that a potential military clash in the Taiwan Strait could result in a naval embargo on energy supplies. China also faces a “Malacca Dilemma”—currently, 80 percent of its oil imports pass through the Strait of Malacca, a chokepoint that is vulnerable to both piracy and any U.S. blockade efforts in the event of conflict off Taiwan.


    http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/IH14Df01.html

    India promotes 'goodwill' naval exercises


    The exercise will be held between Visakhapatnam, headquarters of India's Eastern Naval Command, and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands - not far from the strategic Strait of Malacca.
     
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  19. LETHALFORCE

    LETHALFORCE Moderator Moderator

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    Even Pakistan will not be able to help get your oil thru if US blocks the strait of Hormuz

    [​IMG]
     
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  20. LETHALFORCE

    LETHALFORCE Moderator Moderator

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  21. Ray

    Ray The Chairman Defence Professionals Moderator

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    The world is complex and of that there is no doubt.

    It would be naive to believe that US is protecting freedom of navigation. The US is protecting only its own interests.

    The US' aim is quite clear - they have to have the supremacy everywhere. China is proving to be an obstruction in the Asia Pacific Region, and at a later date, maybe in the Indian Ocean.

    Therefore, China's ambition has to be nipped in the bud.

    India has no desire to block anything in the Indian Ocean, neither China's free passage, nor the US control of the IOR!
     
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