India’s Pakistan-centric calculus!

Discussion in 'Pakistan' started by M.Riaz, Apr 17, 2010.

  1. M.Riaz

    M.Riaz Regular Member

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    Air Cdre (R) Khalid Iqbal

    An objective analysis of India’s national security policy leads us to overawing conclusions that the assumptions underwriting her national strategy are predominantly focused on Pakistan. Especially the military component of national security conglomerate perpetually oozes out a stream of Pakistan phobia. The phenomenon has historic and cultural groundings so strongly perpetuated through mythological exclusiveness that rhetoric, more than often, supersedes the logic. Rationality is submerged into ocean of irrationality when isolated and at times minor incidents are hyped into a frenzy to equate these with a magnitude justifying declaration of final and conclusive war on Pakistan, with a presupposed victory.

    Pakistan has all along lived under the shadow of existential threat origination from India; commencing with politico-military occupation of a major chunk of Kashmir, dismemberment of Pakistan and numerous incidents of en-massing of troops along Pakistani borders in a medieval style posturing. Such unrelenting approach substantiates a Pakistan phobic mindset in India which is rather unfortunate.Actually Indian political leadership has fallen prey to believing in their self created anti-Pakistan hype as a substitute of India’s Pakistan policy. This contradiction of the sortshas induced Pakistan centric psyche in over all national approach towards Pakistan.Any thing that happens or is likely to happen in India has a readily available scapegoat. Right on the start of an occurrence, anti-Pakistan drums start beating. All soft talk and CBMs evaporate and Indian forces start marching towards Pakistan.On Pakistan side, a thick cloud of Indian mischief has induced a cautious approach towards India. Stage-managed events like hijacking of India aeroplane “Ganga”, to sever air link between West and East Pakistan prior to 1971 war, fake attack on Indian parliament to justify year long deployment along Pakistan border always ring alarm bells in Pakistani circles to rule out strings of conspiracy before embracing Indian overtures. At cultural level, there is no dearth of Indian movies and media events highly charged to demonise ISI and other Pakistani institutions. At academic level, there are heaps of hate culture for strengthening and sustaining Pakistan phobia. Hate icons of the like of Moody and Bal Thakrey symbolise institutionalisation of anti-Muslim campaign which ultimately boils down to anti-Pakistan frenzy.

    With this kind of sustained and perpetual anti- Pakistan sentiment, the political leadership has ended up in abdicating the prerogative of prudently steering bilateral relations with Pakistan; the initiative now rests with political opportunists and ideological zealots. Cues picked up by India’s ultra right organisations are sufficient to tighten the noose around the Indian governments, irrespective of their political hue, on as required basis. Both mainstream political parties of India appear to be in a competitive anti-Pakistan race. As of now Indian policy making tier finds itself thoroughly mired in self created slush, with hardly any honourable exit options. Perception has that during difficult patches when Pakistan gets busy handling the developments on its western borders, India wishes to see it consumed in the process, rather than giving a strategic space by engaging it constructively. Proponents of this school of thought argue that as and when India had a life time chance, or would have such a chance against Pakistan, she did not and would not want to miss it. Unfortunately, this notions draws support from historic occurrences. India diverted Pakistan’s attention away from western borders at a critical stage of Afghan resistance against Soviets. A national level exercise ‘Brass Tacs’ was launched with highly provocative objectives, this exercise had the potential of blowing up into full fledged war. This manoeuvre, presumably on Soviet behest, forced Pakistan to deploy its military in eastern border in a full readiness status. Once again now when Pakistan is engaged in facilitation of a workable arrangement in post de-occupation Afghanistan, India is comprehensively involved in a wide spectrum of stabbing at the back kind of activities. India is striving for a larger than life role in Afghanistan; effort is mainly motivated by the instinct to acquire a launching pad for destabilizing the western stretch of Pakistan. Incontrovertible evidence of Indian involvement in Baluchistan and many other incidents of terrorism in various parts of Pakistan support the notion that India is yet once again on a Pakistan squeezing spree.

    When we review the Indian military capability and postulate its various employment options in the regions, clear perception which emerges is that a major bulk of its war material is Pakistan specific. Systems capabilities as well as supporting infrastructure are indicative of their exclusive suitability against Pakistan. Location of command and control centres and their tasking is Pakistan oriented. Even those command centres which are east on north poised have a Pakistan specific contingency tasking. Most of Indian missiles are of short range, hence their application is Pakistan biased. Its mammoth wherewithal for mechanised warfare and ambitious naval flotilla are solely Pakistan focused. China bogie has frequently been raised by India to achieve two objectives; firstly to justify its larger than life arsenal, and secondly to capitalize on mythical western concerns in the context of China. In cold war era, erstwhile Soviets also had unfounded reservations about the rise of China as a major power, hence India squarely exploited it. Indeed India presented itself as mercenary of both superpower of that era to contain China. Nevertheless, it always filled the basement with Pakistan specific munitions.

    India’s focus has all along been Pakistan. In fact after the humiliating defeat in Indo-Chinese war of 1962, India has permanently abdicated the military option against China. Moreover, an exceptionally prudent policy of China makes the likelihood of any China-India military clash highly improbable. China even did not react to provocative statement of General Deepak Kapoor while he was day dreaming to fight China and Pakistan simultaneously and gain strategic advantage within 96 hours. Indeed Indian military capability is predominantly Pakistan centric, this coupled with volatile anti- Pakistan public frenzy, duly patronized by the state, makes it dangerous preposition for the well wisher of good Pak-India relation to ignore.

    —The writer is a National Security Analyst
     
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  3. M.Riaz

    M.Riaz Regular Member

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    When will wisdom prevail?


    Mohammad Jamil

    During the last 63 years, relations between India and Pakistan have remained strained. Both countries have been diverting resources to military build up. Many rounds of talks were held after long hiatuses but to no avail due to India’s intransigence. The composite dialogue, which was started in 2004, was stalled by India after 26/11Mumbai attacks. Otherwise also, there was no progress during the four years on the core issue of Kashmir, Siachin and Sir Creek. Since 26/11 Mumbai attacks, India has continued with the litany that masterminds of Mumbai attacks be brought to book, knowing full well that the accused are on trial in Rawalpindi court, and neither the government can take any action against any specific person unless there is incontrovertible evidence against him. Recently, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh had gone to Washington to attend 47-nation summit for enhancing nukes security. Addressing a press conference there on Wednesday, he without taking names said that “people who were named as part of the conspirators in the Mumbai terror attack were still free in Pakistan and are roaming around freely.”

    He reiterated that “if Pakistan takes credible steps to bring the perpetrators of the horrible crime of 26/11 to book - and that’s the minimum we expect - we would be very happy to begin talking once again about all our issues.” Indian leadership has to understand that unless the Kashmir dispute is resolved, the people of Kashmir would continue their struggle. In the past, whenever the dialogue was about to reach its logical conclusion, India stage-managed an event and then through its propaganda blitz tried to prove Pakistan’s involvement in it. In the past, India has always rejected any third-party mediation over Kashmir, yet it appeals to the US and the West to ask Pakistan to take action against terrorists. This is tantamount to inviting a third party to exert pressure on Pakistan. But India has to remember that 61 years ago the United Nations Security Council had passed resolutions giving the Kashmiris the right to join India or Pakistan through the plebiscite to be held under the aegis of the UN. The US, the western world and Muslim countries want India and Pakistan to resolve the Kashmir issue through dialogue because they believe that there is a dispute, otherwise what else has to be settled. Had they considered Kashmir a part of India, they would not have persuaded both the countries to resolve the issue.

    India indeed takes full advantage of its size and plus one billion population/market, but these factors do not give India the right to reject UN Security Council resolutions. If big and strong countries are allowed to occupy smaller countries’ lands and the UN fails to implement its own resolutions, it will meet the same fate that of the League of Nations. And perhaps a world war will be ‘necessary’ before international community – survivors from nuclear war – would sit across the table to create another organization on the ruins of the United Nations. In November 2009, Indian Home Minister P Chidambaram had warned Pakistan not to play with India by covertly sponsoring terrorists. Addressing a public meeting in Madurai he had said: “The Mumbai attacks of November 2008 should be Pakistan’s last game. I have warned the country not to play with India.” These comments from the Union Home Minister came just three days after Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh had expressed his wish to maintain friendly relationship with Pakistan and wanted to start the dialogue without any precondition.

    Timely and correct policy decisions by Pakistan have successfully countered India’s threats and insidious plans to make Pakistan’s security environment perilous in the wake of international situation that emerged after 9/11. Despite Pakistan’s best efforts to create climate conducive to resolution of disputes with India, the latter neither budged an inch from its stated position on Kashmir, nor addressed Pakistan’s reservations with regard to Baglihar and other dams. Pakistan had then taken the matter to the World Bank by invoking article IX of the 1960 Indus Basin Water Treaty, which bars India from the construction of dams on rivers Chenab, Jhelum and Indus, and interfering with the flow of water to Pakistan. India’s stance was that the project was hydroelectric generation project, and the withheld water would be released to Pakistan after using it for power generation. One does not have to be an engineer to know that with the construction of the reservoir the flow of water will definitely be disturbed.

    The then Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee had demanded of Pakistan “to dismantle the infrastructure of terrorism and return Indian fugitives hiding in the country. It should fulfill its commitments and must take action against terrorists operating from its soil”. He also said that option of unilateral attack was open. There was also some loose talk of carpet bombing by the hawks. Perhaps Indian leadership was under the wrong impression that Pakistan would take it lying down. India should not forget that it is not a super power and not a partner in war on terror. Nor Pakistan is Iraq or Afghanistan that any country can do the carpet bombing as was demanded by some irresponsible elements in India. Later, Congress Chief Sonia Gandhi had said India was capable of giving a befitting reply to those using Pakistan and for abetting and perpetrating terrorism against it. After 26/11 terrorist attacks, there was talk of surgical strikes in Pakistan – one in Azad Kashmir and the other one at Muridke, the headquarters of Jamat-ud-Dawa and once again vowed that the option for unilateral action is still open. There has been tremendous hype in Indian media, which displayed people’s anger on Mumbai carnage.

    In Pakistan, there have been hundreds of terrorists’ attacks but Pakistani government and media never tried to create hype, frenzy or hatred against India. This means that people of Pakistan want peace and hope that better sense will prevail in India also. But had there been any surgical strike by India, the people of Pakistan would also have demanded retaliation. And there should be no confusion that Pakistan would have retaliated with full force. India should bear in mind that Pakistan is also a nuclear state, and war between two nuclear states is not the option. But it does not mean that India could continue showing utter disregard to the UN resolutions. Former president Pervez Musharraf had presented many out of box solutions to resolve the Kashmir dispute, and had expressed willingness to go beyond the stated position provided India reciprocated. But India wants to extend its hegemony over countries of South Asia and beyond, but in the presence of China, it is not possible for India to be even a regional super power. It should therefore reconcile with the neighbours and resolve all issues with them so that people of the region could live without trepidation and fear.

    pakistan observer
     
  4. Agantrope

    Agantrope Senior Member Senior Member

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    Please Provide the links for the following articles. Else required actions will be taken by the MODS.
     
  5. SATISH

    SATISH DFI Technocrat Stars and Ambassadors

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    Riaz can you find what those guys are smoking...can you get me some of those stuff please.
     
  6. Vinod2070

    Vinod2070 मध्यस्थ Stars and Ambassadors

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    You know what is Pakistan's biggest fear other than being squashed by India?



    It is being neglected by India!


    We care a damn for Pakistan. Just stop sending your terrorists and start looking West towards your Islamic brothers. You are anyway now the second half of Af-Pak, learn to understand that.

    No need to obsess with India. We don't care about them at all once the terror and Jihadi scum flow stops.
     
    Last edited: Apr 17, 2010

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