India's illusory nuclear gains

[sgarg]

All nations that deploy nukes have dedicated crack protection teams deployed with every nuclear missile. In India during peacetime the airforce and army deploy only conventional weapons. Only in the event of imminent nuclear strike will the warheads and missiles be mated,the warheads are stored in super secure hardened locations protected by large numbers of troops 24x7.
On deployment the land based warheads will be provided with adequate protection till launch, possibly by paracommandos.
The airforce weapons will only be loaded onto an aircraft a few minutes prior to it taking off for a strike.

Only the naval missiles onboard ssbns are always loaded with nuclear warheads, these however can only be launched by a series of codes and keys held by three different individuals onboard the sub at any time. In the best tradition of the navy I believe anyone getting command of an ssbn shall be an impeccable lifelong patriotic naval officer and we have little to worry about theft from a submerged submarine on the high seas.

War is unpredictable. The war may happen in stages and may see an escalation cycle. I think nukes will get mated with missiles and deployed and kept in readiness if the tensions rise.

The scenario that nukes will be assembled and mated with missiles at the last moment is not a practical one. It is true only when possibility of war is low.

 

[bengalraider]

The British would love to see a nuclear war between India and China.

However I would think otherwise.

India must talk to China and understand deeply what it wants. We focus too much on Pakistan. We have developed too little knowledge of China institutionally.

We need to teach Chinese language to hundreds of thousands every years. Send these people to create businesses in China. Trade with them and understand their culture.

I do not think that a nuclear war with China will happen unless India itself sets on a collision course with China. The nuclear war with Pakistan is a far more practical possibility.

While I agree with your points on engagement with China, the fact remains that a resurgent China will not compromise on territorial disputes. We cannot afford to be complacent with them. There are large numbers of ethnic Chinese living and working throughout the south east Asian region and the entire regional cultural heritage and economy is intermeshed with the PRC as well. If that does not stop the mandarins in zhongnanhai from from grabbing territory from these neighbours, I seriously doubt a few hundred thousand mandarin speakers will!

 

[Ashutosh Lokhande]

India must talk to China and understand deeply what it wants. We focus too much on Pakistan.
.

they want our two states sikkim - Ap and a major chunk of J&K. should we gift it to them? then china wont be a major threat to us.

regarding pakistan i feel we must focus more on that country as its on a brink to being a failed state with irrational and fanatical people and there nuclear and military doctrine is india specific.

 

[tramp]

Weapons work not only when they are used.... they also work when they are not used. Weapons could sometimes be deadlier when not used... because of perception and the fear factor. The cleverer powers get the right results by not using their weapons or by feigning their use.

We need our weapons, but we would be more successful when we get the desired result without using them.

Yes, we must build nuclear weapons if we plan to use these. We need to get rid of the illogical concept of deterrence.

If we do not have the gumption to use nukes, then it is better to become a non-nuclear State.

 

[sorcerer]

I shall reply to your point #5. When a war starts, both parties blame each other. It is very hard to prove who invaded. If a missile takes around 10-15 minutes from Pakistan to India, and assuming that a response is given as soon as the missile launch is detected by India, there will only be a difference of a few minutes between warheads exploding in both sides.
Its not just watching missile launches , the whole world is on the look out for launches. A country like Pak is always on candy cam of many countries. Politics will prevent anyone from pressing the n


More points:
1. I doubt that any war is prevented due to nuclear weapons. Kargil happened despite both countries having nukes.

During Kargil , before and after India has, had and have nukes and MushyBoy a.k.a Mushraff learned the hardway during the Kargil season that their Paki Nukes have the awesomest paint jobs and wont do the blow job.

2. A cold war between Pakistan and India - I doubt it really exists.
Cold or Hot, its Pak is always an irritation and India is always ready.

3. The diplomacy between India/Pakistan and India/China is not really as strong as you believe.

Strong or not, we have always manage to diffuse the tension fuse, though it gets lit up from time to time.

 

[sgarg]

While I agree with your points on engagement with China, the fact remains that a resurgent China will not compromise on territorial disputes. We cannot afford to be complacent with them. There are large numbers of ethnic Chinese living and working throughout the south east Asian region and the entire regional cultural heritage and economy is intermeshed with the PRC as well. If that does not stop the mandarins in zhongnanhai from from grabbing territory from these neighbours, I seriously doubt a few hundred thousand mandarin speakers will!

The fact is China has hardly taken much action on the border despite claims and counter-claims.

The last war was in 1962. That was under Mao when China itself lost millions of its citizens under the dictatorship.

Most Indians under-estimate China. I think Chinese can take Arunachal Pradesh today. They have the military capacity. But I doubt they wanted it in the past or want it today. They will keep the pressure on India though. This is part of their strategy.

The Chinese want to stay north of Himalayas.

 

[sgarg]

When we can teach English to 200 million children every year, we can sure teach mandarin to 1 million. It is possible.

 

[sgarg]

Strong or not, we have always manage to diffuse the tension fuse, though it gets lit up from time to time.

I believe that our diplomacy is weak as the inter-dependency is not there. It is possible that India becomes very important for China economically. If India keeps on growing, its trade with China will become quite significant.

Money always trumps hatred.

 

[Ashutosh Lokhande]

The fact is China has hardly taken much action on the border despite claims and counter-claims.

The last war was in 1962. That was under Mao when China itself lost millions of its citizens under the dictatorship.

Most Indians under-estimate China. I think Chinese can take Arunachal Pradesh today. They have the military capacity. But I doubt they wanted it in the past or want it today. They will keep the pressure on India though. This is part of their strategy.

The Chinese want to stay north of Himalayas.

China taking arunachal pradesh will result in mutually assured destruction.
and china cant take AP without serious retalliation from india as well as world.
if china could then china would, no?

 

[sgarg]

China taking arunachal pradesh will result in mutually assured destruction.
and china cant take AP without serious retalliation from india as well as world.
if china could then china would, no?

I do not agree with your view. India is not crazy to want to launch nukes on China for AP.
In fact I can tell you that there is NO "mutually assured destruction".

India maintains a rather small nukes stockpile which cannot destroy China. China is a big country.
The Chinese stockpile is said to be between 500-3000 warheads. The problem with China is that they have very large reserves of equipment. They show only a small part, the rest is hidden.

 

[Ashutosh Lokhande]

@sgarg i dont agree with you either. i think india will retaliate quite heavily if china takesover AP and surrounding areas. india has the capability to defend it self if the war is fought within its territory.


moreover i feel in todays date and time its not easy to just attack and occupy a territory just like that without very serious consequences also from rest of the world.

 

[sgarg]

@sgarg i dont agree with you either. i think india will retaliate quite heavily if china takesover AP and surrounding areas. india has the capability to defend it self if the war is fought within its territory.


moreover i feel in todays date and time its not easy to just attack and occupy a territory just like that without very serious consequences also from rest of the world.

Any reasons why you think so? Yes the cost for China will be heavy but it has the means.

You are mistaken if you think India has such low threshold of using nukes.

 

[tramp]

My fear is that instead of China taking the North East, the whole or substantial part of will go over, especially considering the way Indian mofos are treating the people from that region... the hate abuses, racial violence etc and Indian states' failure to see these incidents as anything more than a lame law and order problem.

This is how insurgencies gather momentum.

China taking arunachal pradesh will result in mutually assured destruction.
and china cant take AP without serious retalliation from india as well as world.
if china could then china would, no?

 

[power_monger]

My fear is that instead of China taking the North East, the whole or substantial part of will go over, especially considering the way Indian mofos are treating the people from that region... the hate abuses, racial violence etc and Indian states' failure to see these incidents as anything more than a lame law and order problem.

This is how insurgencies gather momentum.

Assam,tripura Arunachal pradesh and Tripura are still widely hindu populated region.As long as hinduism is still a major force in these regions they will be a part of india. Indian government is pumping a lot of money in these regions and once these states see development,they will accept India.