India to surpass China, will become world's largest economy by 2050: Report

[trackwhack]

India is not 8th on the nominal GDP list, she was no.9 or no.10 on the 2010 list. Now with rupee losing like 20% of its value the past year, India's GDP probably has fallen out of the top 10 for 2011.

Guys here are predictably optimistic (when it comes to making predictions), but just to serve a reminder: til this day only countries with pale-skinned people (of northern european origins and north-eastern asian origins) have managed to industrialize, no exceptions. Also a little observation, among ASEAN countries whose economies are invariably controlled by chinese, GDP per capital is directly proportional to the percentage of ethnical chinese of the local population.

Chinese popl as percentage Nominal GDP per capital
Singapore 74% $50000
Malaysia 23.7% $8000
Thailand 14% $5000
Indonesia 3% $3000
Cambodia 1% $1000


All those lofty predictions for India might just come true, but its an uphill battle I would not bet on.

You just keep hoping son. We are the fastest growing sustainable economy, soon to become the fastest growing economy. Obviously 10 years of 8% growth without having to resort to authoritative governance and despite large scale corruption has not convinced you that we are here to stay and in due course lead.
You just keep on hoping son.

 

[Ray]

China has slowed down.

They have not tapped their domestic market.

 

[Armand2REP]

Chinese popl as percentage Nominal GDP per capital
Singapore 74% $50000
Malaysia 23.7% $8000
Thailand 14% $5000
Indonesia 3% $3000
Cambodia 1% $1000


All those lofty predictions for India might just come true, but its an uphill battle I would not bet on

Your reasoning is so funny guy. Lets take your prime example of Singapore, Chinese make up 74%, only half of them speak Mandarin and their median household income is only $4000. Singapore has a high per capita GDP because it is the land of immigrant millionaires, not because of Chinese who forget their own language.

 

[A chauhan]

US and other big economies wont let it happen so easily, seeing such predictions, big economies will be planning economic invasion or such policies to prevent the rise of any other country. Indian market is already filled with cheap Chinese products, which is not good for our local market & manufacturers.

 

[p2prada]

Your reasoning is so funny guy.

Ah! This word is so nostalgic. Where is that guy? He is practically family now.

 

[LalTopi]

While your text book understanding of definitions are accurate, like most mugpots, you have hardly a clue about what you are talking about. If you extrapolate technology growth at the same rate as real growth, India will surpass the West well before 2050. Military commerce would have turned 180 from India's perspective, we would be a net importer of arms and many of our customers may well be our current suppliers.

Except for the bold bit, where I think you meant to say that India would be a net exporter of arms, I agree with you, and it contradicts nothing in what I was saying. Not sure the 'mugpot' reference was really necessary, but if its your style, its up to you.

 

[LalTopi]

I know what is PPP. It is also the real measure of the actual GDP growth. The Growth of 8% refered here is Real gdp growth which is the GDP growth in PPP not Nominal GDP. The Nominal GDP for India is actually about 15-20%. Thats what i said.

About the bold part- NO. the Constant prices growth is at 7%. The growth at current prices will include the 8% inflation too. Hence the Nominal GDP growth will be 8%+7%(Real gdp + inflation) that is 15% GDP growth

Thats what i meant- If inflation and stuff is around 5% per annum on average and growth is at 8%, then by 2050, they will nearly be same- .ie Nominal and PPP GDP:bounce:. That is the real growth will be 8% and Nominal growth will be 15%. and so, the Nominal gdp will be similiar to PPP gdp by then


Blame it on the CONs and their screw ups with their good for nothing Subsidies and others- triggering inflation and fall in rupee.

Actually, if we have a very efficient govt, we can even grow at 10% + for even decades- look at gujarat. So fcuk these UPA and bring in Modi and we will get 10% growth

Thanks for the correction regarding inflation.
Regarding Nominal GDP catching up with real (PPP) GDP. I do not know how this might work in practice, whether it would be a constant rate of catch-up, or sudden movements caused by appreciations in the value of the Rupee versus the dollar.

 

[trackwhack]

Except for the bold bit, where I think you meant to say that India would be a net exporter of arms, I agree with you, and it contradicts nothing in what I was saying. Not sure the 'mugpot' reference was really necessary, but if its your style, its up to you.

Yes I meant exporter ... The reference was based on your textbook interpretation of PPP and your naive comment on India's military dependence
40 years from now.

 

[Adux]

Did Indians 35 years go, in the time of nationalisations and Indira Gandhi's Emergency's ever thought India will reach where we are today, NO.

Anything can happen,


Anything beyond 10-15 years, is just pure fantasy.

 

[tony4562]

You just keep hoping son. We are the fastest growing sustainable economy, soon to become the fastest growing economy. Obviously 10 years of 8% growth without having to resort to authoritative governance and despite large scale corruption has not convinced you that we are here to stay and in due course lead.
You just keep on hoping son.

India with its stilll exploding 1.2 billion population is not a sustainable economy, no matter how you cut it. The truth remains that to this date no dark skinned people, no matter from which continent, have managed to build an advanced society.Not a single counter example exists!

 

[trackwhack]

India with its stilll exploding 1.2 billion population is not a sustainable economy, no matter how you cut it. The truth remains that to this date no dark skinned people, no matter from which continent, have managed to build an advanced society.Not a single counter example exists!

How is it that this racist idiot is posting if he is in Tihar Jail?

The Indian subcontinent has skins of all color and we have been dominant as a people, more advanced for a longer time since the dawn of civilization than any other group of people. Chinese scholars themselves agree.

To prove my point remember that most of your race still chant a Sanskrit mantra everyday in prayer.

Dolt!

 

[ejazr]

@Mad Indian and @p2prada

I am not comparing UPA vs NDA performance here. What I am saying is that it doesn't matter who is in power as long as they don't fundamentally change liberalization policies; India will continue to grow at 7-8% per annum. The crucial period for us from 2015 onwards when China becomes a number one economy until the time we can successfully match China in the economic sphere. That is around another 3 decades later. Hence the need to have close ties with the US during this crucial period.

The Kargil war again does not compare with the global scale of the crisis of the GFC. In any case, every govt. has to contend with its own set of crisis. While BJP had security crisis like Kargil war for example, it had oil at $20-30 per barrel compared to $100+/barrel we have had to contend with.
BJP did a good job at building roads at 11km / day, definitely batter than the UPA I avg of 7-8km/day. But the continuity with NDA projects was there and UPAII finally completed the Quadrilateral project lat year and is finally back to building 11km/day.
Govt declares Golden Quadrilateral complete - Indian Express
Highways back on track, 11km added per day - Times Of India

Finally, the less said about "ideologies" of the parties the better. Congress openly calls itself a socialist party and still has the most centre-right economic program in place. The irony is that they have the world bank Montek Singh as the head of the Soviet style planning commission! BJP also on the other hand that has this split personality between "Swadeshi" / leftist economic policiies and the neo-liberal/right economic policy wing.
Infact, even journalists like Swapan who openly support BJP have been critical on this aspect (Usual Suspects: BJP risks losing urban support). One of the reasons why Congress pretty much won all major urban centers in the 2009 elections was because of this confusion on what the BJP stands for. Congress is guilty of the same ofcourse.It has its own split between left and right WITHIN the party itself. Unfortunately no party can openly come out and articulate centre-right economic policies or neo-liberal policies as it has been painted as some sort of anti-people economic policy.

Despite all this, India can continue to grow at 7-8%, if the DTC and GST get applied, we should even touch 9%. And if a party does emerge which is confident in its centre-right outlook, then even double digit real growth for 2-3 decades is possible.

 

[cir]

（1）China's GDP，at 7.5 trillion US dollars in 2011，is 4。5 times India's（taking together Q4 FY2010-2011 and Q1-3 FY2011-2012， and considering the fall in rupee）
（2）Gov has set a "target" of 7.5% growth for 2012， but China has always grew 1-2% above gov-set target。So 8.5% plus this year。 India？
（3）PPP again？ Again？？That's really boring。
（4）Hope you all live long enough to see in 2051。

 

[Adux]

（1）China's GDP，at 7.5 trillion US dollars in 2011，is 4。5 times India's（taking together Q4 FY2010-2011 and Q1-3 FY2011-2012， and considering the fall in rupee）
（2）Gov has set a "target" of 7.5% growth for 2012， but China has always grew 1-2% above gov-set target。So 8.5% plus this year。 India？
（3）PPP again？ Again？？That's really boring。
（4）Hope you all live long enough to see in 2051。

You ----ing chicom,

You are ----ing living in a dictatorship, you want to add that to the value of Economy, our's might far ahead of yours.

 

[LalTopi]

India with its stilll exploding 1.2 billion population is not a sustainable economy, no matter how you cut it. The truth remains that to this date no dark skinned people, no matter from which continent, have managed to build an advanced society.Not a single counter example exists!

Dear Tony,
If you are so proud of your colour, culture, civilisation etc. why do you have a white Christian name?

 

[p2prada]

I am not comparing UPA vs NDA performance here. What I am saying is that it doesn't matter who is in power as long as they don't fundamentally change liberalization policies; India will continue to grow at 7-8% per annum.

Not entirely agreeable. We still need reforms to sustain it over longer periods. But for the sake of this discussion, agreed.

BJP did a good job at building roads at 11km / day, definitely batter than the UPA I avg of 7-8km/day. But the continuity with NDA projects was there and UPAII finally completed the Quadrilateral project lat year and is finally back to building 11km/day.

Congress should have done better than that. But for the sake of this discussion, agreed.

（1）China's GDP，at 7.5 trillion US dollars in 2011，is 4。5 times India's（taking together Q4 FY2010-2011 and Q1-3 FY2011-2012， and considering the fall in rupee）
（2）Gov has set a "target" of 7.5% growth for 2012， but China has always grew 1-2% above gov-set target。So 8.5% plus this year。 India？
（3）PPP again？ Again？？That's really boring。
（4）Hope you all live long enough to see in 2051。

You don't make sense.

 

[opkeyen]

China population, the future if dropped, can by immigrants to fill the United States of America, just like that, because if China's future power, external to the population of great attraction. The quality of the population in India is not bad, but the population burden is heavy, on population genetic quality, than southeast Asia and Arabia world are high, India at least100 million Aryan descent excellent white. China and India will be combined to promote Asia, Asia is the Asian Asia, Asia is the world's largest land area, should become the center of the world

 

[opkeyen]

Chinese Han origins, recent genetic studies and archeology and literature studies on the surface, not all the people of Mongolia, the earliest Huaxia likely also of Aryan origin, which in the paternal gene markers has shown, the Huaxia people from west to East in China and local Mongolia yellow blood, so the history of China is the constant ethnic fusion state, while in South Korea and northeast inferior one closer to purebred Mongolia yellow. In the history of China, Mongolia and Manchuria by invading aggravates the northern Mongolia, in the Warring States period in addition to the West and south of the Qin, Chu, more and more foreign, Huaxia group in the Central Plains have more white people of mixed ancestry.

 

[cir]

Since when has having the largest population become THE necessary and suffcient condition for automatically becoming the number one economy in the world？

Having wet dreams is one thing，and facing the reality is altogether a different matter。

 

[Vinod2070]

India is not 8th on the nominal GDP list, she was no.9 or no.10 on the 2010 list. Now with rupee losing like 20% of its value the past year, India's GDP probably has fallen out of the top 10 for 2011.

Guys here are predictably optimistic (when it comes to making predictions), but just to serve a reminder: til this day only countries with pale-skinned people (of northern european origins and north-eastern asian origins) have managed to industrialize, no exceptions.

So that's the reason the dark "yellow Chinese" are consuming so much skin lightening cream?

Japanese and Koreans still seem to have a lot of contempt for you Chin! And all other East Asians as well.

Also a little observation, among ASEAN countries whose economies are invariably controlled by chinese, GDP per capital is directly proportional to the percentage of ethnical chinese of the local population.

Chinese popl as percentage Nominal GDP per capital
Singapore 74% $50000
Malaysia 23.7% $8000
Thailand 14% $5000
Indonesia 3% $3000
Cambodia 1% $1000


All those lofty predictions for India might just come true, but its an uphill battle I would not bet on.

But China with >98% Chinese population was less than $1000 just a decade back!

And East Asia was worse than Africa just 2 decades back in all indicators.

We understand, you have that "nouveau riche" mentality even though you are not exactly rich.

Wiping the Iphone with that toxic n-hexane in the mid of the night (sleeping 20 in a bunk on beds only you can fit in) doesn't make you rich, nor innovative.

And the million doing that know that they are better off than the other billion Chin.

Chin will grow old before the ever get rich. This is their last hurrah...