India to overtake China in 2020: Swaminathan Aiyar

Discussion in 'Economy & Infrastructure' started by Singh, Jan 1, 2010.

  1. Singh

    Singh Phat Cat Administrator

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    In the past decades, India has been world number one in starvation deaths, foreign aid and bribery. In the 2000s, it was transformed from a chronic under-performer to a potential superpower. Here are eight predictions of what it will look like in 2020:

    India will overtake China as the fastest-growing economy in the world. China will start ageing and suffering from a declining workforce, and will be forced to revalue its currency. So its growth will decelerate, just as Japan decelerated in the 1990s after looking unstoppable in the 1980s. Having become the world’s second-biggest economy, China’s export-oriented model will erode sharply — the world will no longer be able to absorb its exports at the earlier pace. Meanwhile, India will gain demographically with a growing workforce that is more literate than ever before. The poorer Indian states will start catching up with the richer ones. This will take India’s GDP growth to 10% by 2020, while China’s growth will dip to 7-8%.

    India will become the largest English-speaking nation in the world, overtaking the US. So, the global publishing industry will shift in a big way to India. Rupert Murdoch’s heirs will sell his collapsing media empire to Indian buyers. The New York Times will become a subsidiary of an Indian publishing giant.

    In the 2000s, India finally gained entry into the nuclear club, and sanctions against it were lifted. By 2020, Indian companies will be major exporters of nuclear equipment, a vital link in the global supply chain. So, India will be in a position to impose nuclear sanctions on others.

    India, along with the US and Canada, will develop new technology to extract natural gas from gas hydrates — a solidified form of gas lying on ocean floors. India has the largest gas hydrate deposits in the world, and so will become the biggest global producer. This will enable India to substitute gas for coal in power generation, hugely reducing carbon emissions and making Jairam Ramesh look saintly.

    India will also discover enormous deposits of shale gas in its vast shale formations running through the Gangetic plain, Assam, Rajasthan and Gujarat. New technology has made the extraction of shale gas economic, so India will become a major gas producer and exporter. Meanwhile, Iran’s mullahs will be overthrown, and a new democratic regime will usher in rapid economic growth that creates a shortage of gas in Iran by 2020. So, the Iran-India pipeline will be recast, but in reverse form: India will now export gas to Iran.

    More and more regions of India will demand separate statehood. By 2020, India will have 50 states instead of the current 28. The new states will not exactly be small. With 50 states and a population of almost 1.5 billion, India will average 30 million people per state, far higher than the current US average of 6 million per state.

    China, alarmed at India’s rise, will raise tensions along the Himalayan border. China will threaten to divert the waters of the Brahmaputra from Tibet to water-scarce northern China. India will threaten to bomb any such project. The issue will go to the Security Council.

    Islamic fundamentalists will take over in Afghanistan and Pakistan. The US will withdraw from the region, leaving India to bear the brunt of consequences. Terrorism will rise in India, but the economy will still keep growing. How so? Well, 3000 people die every year falling off Mumbai’s suburban trains, and that does not stop Mumbai’s growth. Terrorism will bruise India, but not halt its growth.

    India to overtake China in 2020: Swaminathan Aiyar- Swaminathan S A Aiyar-Columnists-Opinion-The Economic Times
     
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  3. Daredevil

    Daredevil On Vacation! Administrator

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    I agree with most of the points Swaminathan has made but I think some points are highly exaggerated. I don't agree with the statement about forming of 50 states in India. I think this is not quite possible yet given our parochial politics.
     
  4. ppgj

    ppgj Senior Member Senior Member

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    swaminathan aiyer is a little too optimistic.

    the effect of terrorism is felt more on tourism and investments. while it may not halt growth definitely will put a break. not to forget all internal insurgencies, naxal vilolence etc..

    also he does not factor in a possible war with either or both of our adversaries. particularly on the china front. unless the border issues are settled, that possibility will exist considering we are looking at 2020.

    also important of note is india's relations with countries with in SAARC. everyone looks at india as a hegemon. unless that perception is cleared we will have trouble at the doors which will keep us engaged and will inflict cost on us.
     
  5. bengalraider

    bengalraider DFI Technocrat Stars and Ambassadors

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    The most Important factor the author conveniently ignores is the large and potentially destabilizing problem of naxalism and militant trade unionism. The Last decade has seen the grotwh of naxal/maoist movements whithin india to the extent that they now run a parallel government in many parts of india .This problem cannot be addressed by force alone. The roots of this problem lie in rampant illetracy, poverty and general lack of development in India's heartland , until the heartland's wounds are healed and development reaches the last tribal village in the heart of Chattisgarh Mr Aiyar's dream shall remain exactly that "A dream". The Increase in no's of states will not necessarily lead to better governance as the previous experience with both Chattisgarh & Jharkhand have shown us.
    Another chronic problem is an increasingly militant workforce, here is am not talking about doctor's and engineers but fitters,welders, plumbers and the like. This militant unionism is actively encouraged by a large No. of political parties especially in the large and chronically plagued states of Bihar and West Bengal. This has also led to protests some violent in factories in Gurgaon and Haryana. Make no Mistake each time a workforce revolts we lose some brownie points in the eyes of foreign investors. While i do not advocate the kindof "Concentration camp" control China keeps on many workers in it's factories, we should not take this issue too leniently either. The Imposition of Labor laws should be done strictly and all Bad elements whithin organisations should be rooted out.
    Also as India's Industrialzation commences we will face far more health problems than ever before as our air becomes more and more smog filled our climate will change as climate cahnges our crop yeilds will fall as the yeilds fall our economy will suffer.
     
  6. thakur_ritesh

    thakur_ritesh Administrator Administrator

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    I generally like what Mr Aiyar writes, but this article seriously has a lot which goes for asking and well he can hide and say, these are predictions with no certainty of coming right or wrong.

    1. I will wait for that day when it happens, a lot of such predictions have been made in the past which stretches to well over two decades now and the Chinese are masters at cooking their books. This is seriously a wait and watch game, and my bet is mass unrest in the prc!

    2. what that would do is make people like Rupert Murdoch push the GoI for 100% fdi in print media, so yes one would see the new york times in India but the management control will still be there in the west, until and unless they face some severe financial crunch.

    3. yes there will be more states created but 50 is too far fetched, may be 50 would happen in another two decades, and well that will happen whether we like it or not but one decade is too short a time period for such a thing to happen and if it were to happen at such a break neck speed, 50 is too less a number!

    4. He misses Pakistan there. Pakistan is a proxy of the prc and they will be mobilized to fight a war against India, and it sure will happen. There is no way the prc will stand a strong country in its close vicinity which would have the potential to challenge its hegemony. Though he is right to an extent about the security council but then if he is hinting at an inevitable war, then that will be a disappointment, for they will only fight through Pakistan.

    5. I think he misses the point that business runs on sentiments, and if sentiments are negative, hardly any business has the ability to sustain. An accident does not create fear in the minds of general public, in fact these accidents do not even make it to the news let alone headlines, but that is not what happens when terror attacks happens.

    There are prospects of Pakistan being taken over by mullahs but only if the us fails there completely. Will the us let such a situation arise with a nuclear armed nation, very difficult to believe.
     
  7. A chauhan

    A chauhan "अहिंसा परमो धर्मः धर्म हिंसा तथैव च: l" Senior Member

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    Optimism is good but over confidence is worst. Some of the points he has made will really become true, but in some areas he is over optimistic. It would be really hard for us to overtake China. He himself has stated that Japan's growth decelerated in 1990s he forgot to mention that Japan is now a developed country, while China falls under developing countries.

    Yes increasing terrorists attacks will really annoy us so we must plan for it.Our Nuclear capabilities will definitely boost and i hope due to our defense research programs and increasing war force one day we will gain the permanent membership of the UN Security Council which we really deserve.:india:

    Prediction of 50 states is an exaggerated one !!.
     
  8. nimo_cn

    nimo_cn Senior Member Senior Member

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    I read this article from The Times of India, and i also read the comments of Indian netizens regarding this article, i am glad to share some of them with you.

    Shifali Kumari,Vasai,says:What bullshit... Dont talk rubbish Swaminathan... stop giving false hopes to the citizens of India. Have you ever been to China??? Do you know what is their growth?? Do you know how much they have progressed?? You know nothing about China... India doesnt have any proper system in place. Its like the Maharashtra chief (cheap) minister saying... i will make Mumbai into Shanghai in 5 yrs time... all these false promises which is not possible in a democratic country especially & moreover you dont know what Shanghai is... you politicians cant even change mumbai to a small village in China. INDIA DOESNT EVEN HAVE A SINGLE CITY TO COMPARE WITH ANY CITY OR FOR THAT MATTER ANY VILLAGE IN CHINA. We are still talking about electricity... proper water supply & roads after 60 yrs of Independence.. i guess you politicians are like frogs in the well... Trying to fool the citizens for your own interest that is for votes. GROW UP.. & wake up citizens of INDIA... these politicians wont give u anything but poverty & price hikes... JUST THINK HAS THE COST OF SUGAR, POTATOES OR OTHER DAILY ITEMS REDUCED?? SIMPLE QUESTIONS... DO U GET PROPER WATER, ELECTRICITY OR GAS FOR UR DAILY NEEDS? DO U HAVE PROPER ROADS N SO ON... THE ANSWER IS NO... SO BECOME WISE & STOP VOTING... ESPECIALLY FOR THESE STUPID & ILLITERATE POLITICIANS WHO CAN ONLY GIVE U PROMISES

    Clint Martin,Canada,says:Sounds like a figment of a deceased imagination. All the clap trap of solidified gas lying on the ocean floors. Sagar Samrat started drilling in the early seventies and we are still and huge importer of oil. Premier Padmini and Bajaj scooters did not change its models for fifty years and this country who cant even build its own combat aircraft or defense submarines and are so dependant on its defenses from overseas is suddenly going become world leaders. You dont know a dammed thing about what you are talking about. The backward mentality of Indian thinking as followers and chamchas will never make it a world leader. It is about 'CHARACTER' my friend and we have a ample lack of it to last us for another 860 years. The last 60 years we have been independantly stabbing each other in the back. Prior to that 200 years we spent Chamcha's in our own land of the British people who we blammed for devide and rule. Remember the previous 600 years were spent under the mughal or islamic barbarity where we lost our hindhu hereitage to the invader for free food and a cohesive cowardice to fight the invader in our own land. They gave us food and we all became muslims. Are you talking about these same people becoming world leaders . You are a deranged lunatic. History is on the other side of your ridiculous opinion.

    India - Page7 - The Times of India
     
  9. atleast_a_bronze

    atleast_a_bronze Regular Member

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    Nimo, great that you have selectively chosen 2 of the best comments from 2 ignorant frustrated souls to prove something.
    People are entitled to their own opinions and conclusions as we are a democratic country. We are used to both positive and negative comments amidst us. Welcome to the free press :D
     
  10. no smoking

    no smoking Senior Member Senior Member

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    You know, you should leave our indian friends alone. You are spoiling india's farourite sport: predicting. :india:
     
  11. nimo_cn

    nimo_cn Senior Member Senior Member

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    atleast_a_bronze, i assume you didn't even finish reading all the comments in the link before you posted this. I have spent almost an hour reading all the comments, over 70% Indian netizens were bashing the authour like hell, i just selected two typical comments.

    Don't always brag about your free pess, it only makes it worthless. When it comes to Internet, we are just as free as you, dont you see we are here, a indian forum full of bashing china posts?
     
  12. ppgj

    ppgj Senior Member Senior Member

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    you are right nimo. that is why even on this thread you can see people don't beleive blindly.

    the author is well known and writes good. but on this one he has gone a little too off.
     
  13. Ritwik

    Ritwik Regular Member

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    ummm ... WhatBlocked - Tracking the Great Firewall of China

    [if you can open that]
     
  14. atleast_a_bronze

    atleast_a_bronze Regular Member

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    I don't want to argue regarding your free media. The world knows about it.
    And China bashing? No dude, We love China as much as we love Pakistan:D for all the brotherly love being showered on us.
     
  15. qilaotou

    qilaotou Regular Member

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    If China mantains a growth rate of 9% her economy would be 4-5 times larger than India's by 2020. The gap becomes wider and wider so to speak. One should instead be pesimistic if India's GDP does not grow faster than China before 2020.
     
  16. nimo_cn

    nimo_cn Senior Member Senior Member

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    You raised this issue in the first palce.

    Right, before we being in this forum, you knew Chinese couldn't get access to Indian websites.
    Dude, your sense of humor sucks.
     
  17. badguy2000

    badguy2000 Respected Member Senior Member

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    CHina's nominal GDP in 2009 might be 5 trillion USD while India's is still 1.2 trillion USD.

    So, CHina's nominal GDP is 4-5 time larger than India's already.

    if the tendency can not be changed, it is not a suprise that CHina's nominal GDP be 10 time more than India's in 2020.
     
  18. Rage

    Rage DFI TEAM Stars and Ambassadors

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    Don't fool yourself. The tendency is changing already. The 'hindu rate of growth', which allowed China to achieve its advantage in the first place, no longer exists.

    You amuse me. China's GDP is 5 trillion dollars in 2009? And India's GDP is what it was in 2008? Hardy f^ckin har!

    While China is continuously reevaluating its GDP in terms of the black market, India's black market, perhaps the world's largest given the extent of unrecorded transactions that transpire in this country, remains without the circumference of nominal GDP, but contributes to rising living standards and wages nevertheless.

    Don't flatter or delude yourself. The trend is guaranteed to reverse. The laws of economic aggregates, diminishing marginal returns and capital flows say so.
     
  19. rockdog

    rockdog Guest

    You forget to add the Hong Kong? I think the volume might be bigger. Since it has around $30000 per capital and 6 million population.

    BTW, if you remember in old IDF (Indian Defense Forum), on 2006, there was a article called "India would catch up China by growth rate in 2 yrs". Huge of Indian members believed so.

    And at the 2008, the exact date after 2 years, i dig that the post up in the forum section. The Mod (I think it was S.A.T.A) was very angry and shut to me: please don't dig such meaningless post...

    Even i thought it was very meaningful... :viannen_51:

    The sad thing is, this time i can't dig it up after 20 yrs, they changed the prediction much longer...
     
  20. Rage

    Rage DFI TEAM Stars and Ambassadors

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    At the onset of China's economic growth, in the late 1970's, I read articles in certain 'left wing' print media that China would catch up and overtake the United States by 2010. At the end of 2010, we're here, but China ain't.

    Similarly, three years ago, nobody could predict India's meteoric rise. And just as China's economic rise will ensure that it one day catches up to the United States, India's economic growth will ensure that it catches up with China.

    Estimates of when are merely that- opinions, and vary from person to person. In most cases, they are conjecture, without substantial economic data to validate a timeframe. But the general argument remains nonetheless: an economy cannot sustain high rates of growth infinitely, and eventually long-run GDP approximates "potential" GDP. The potential of India's GDP is huge, on par, or marginally slightly below China. Growth will happen, and it will happen regardless of estimates and projections.

    In the meantime, the dragon would be well advised not to crap its pantyhose. For the tiger still has a long way to traverse before it is running the same course. For now, it leaps- and it leaps like a motherf^cker!
     
  21. badguy2000

    badguy2000 Respected Member Senior Member

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    it is meaningless to take Hongkongese GDP into consideration.
    after all, Hongkong and Macou is a autonoumous economy.

    Besides,Hongkongese GDP is less than 0.2 trillion USD .it is negligible to CHina's GDP.
     

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