India to outpace China by 2030: US intelligence report

Discussion in 'China' started by arunpat, Dec 11, 2012.

  1. arunpat

    arunpat Regular Member

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    WASHINGTON: It might be hard to visualize or believe in today's messy, gridlocked, turmoil-ridden subcontinent, but the US intelligence community in a new report released on Monday says by 2030, a surging India, along with decelerating China, will straddle global commerce and dominate the world economy amid the gradual decline of the west.

    They won't be doing it in tandem. China has powered ahead, but India's turn will come after 2015 even as China's fortunes start receding. But by 2030, Asia, fueled by India as much as China, "will be well on its way to returning to being the world's powerhouse, just as it was before 1500," says "Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds," a report issued by the US National Intelligence Council, the brains' trust of the US intelligence community. Pakistan will be a no-show and may not even exist.

    The report shows that India will surge ahead after 2020 even as China begins to wane or decelerate, mainly on account of demographic changes which will see China aging before India. "As the world's largest economic power, China is expected to remain ahead of India, but the gap could begin to close by 2030. India's rate of economic growth is likely to rise while China's slows," the report says, adding, "In 2030 India could be the rising economic powerhouse that China is seen to be today. China's current economic growth rate -- 8 to 10 percent -- will probably be a distant memory."

    According to the report, the total size of the Chinese working-age population will peak in 2016 and decline from 994 million to about 961 million in 2030. In contrast, India's working-age population is unlikely to peak until about 2050. In terms of timeline, India's demographic window of opportunity is between 2015 to 2050, whereas China's is 1990 to 2025. In contrast, the US fecundity was at its best between 1970 to 2015, presaging the country's gradual decline. India's median age, currently at 26, will be 32 by 2030, still the lowest among the top ten economies in the world.

    The report forecasts that sometime after 2030, India, not China will have the world's largest middle-class consumption, bigger than US and EU combined. But both China and India, it says, faces the prospect of being trapped in middle-income status, with their per capita income not continuing to increase to the level of the world's advanced economies unless they resolve their resource constraints (mainly water, energy, food) and invest more in science and technology to continue to move their economy up the value chain.

    Indeed, the India-China economic journey is not without hurdles or pitfalls, especially with regards to the global scrap for resources and the effects of climate change. But if they surmount the difficulties and things pan out well, India and China will dominate a world in 2030 that will largely be "middle-class, not poor, which has been the condition of most people throughout human history."

    India to outpace China by 2030: US intelligence report - The Times of India
     
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  3. badguy2000

    badguy2000 Respected Member Senior Member

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    such forecast repeats once every month,just like wemen's menstrual
     
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  4. hbogyt

    hbogyt Regular Member

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    The report has merits, but the Chinese government's family planning policies are there for a reason, to prevent scarce resources from being ever more thinnly distributed across the population. Despite booming growth, Chinese per capita income may never reach the same level as that of the US, extrapolating current trends out to inifinity. By the same token, Indians may never be as rich as Chinese on average on a per capita basis. Overpopulation will also present India with its challenges. At the end of the day, nothing is certain and who am I to predict the future.

    Now that's out of the way. Gloat away my Indian friends! :)
     
  5. nimo_cn

    nimo_cn Senior Member Senior Member

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    Not everyone at this forum could live that long to see that day.
     
  6. Ray

    Ray The Chairman Defence Professionals Moderator

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    When that happens, I will believe.

    I don't go by forecasts of soothsayers.
     
  7. spikey360

    spikey360 Crusader Senior Member

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    2030 is a long time away. There'll be at the least one World War before that.
     
  8. hbogyt

    hbogyt Regular Member

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    Nonsense! I demand that you retract your statement! I will live on utilising advanced life science technology including embroynic stem cells and cloning. Muahahahahahahahahahahahahahahhaahahah

    Muahahahahaahahahahahahahaahahahahahaahah.
     
  9. Blackwater

    Blackwater Veteran Member Veteran Member

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    unfortunately Pakistan will not be there to witness this historic movment:laugh::laugh::taunt:



    :sindhudesh::sindhudesh::balochistan::balochistan:
     
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  10. hit&run

    hit&run Elite Member Elite Member

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    Electing a govt. again for second term is counter productive for India and current govt. is good example of it. Anti-incumbency zindabad.
     
  11. badguy2000

    badguy2000 Respected Member Senior Member

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    well, it is much eaiser to forecast what China is like in 2017, that is ,5 years later:

    1.CHina's GDP might be 16 trillion USD and is almost equal to USA's ,if it had not surpassed USA's.

    2.China' per capital nominal GDP 10000+ and is close to become a high-income economy.

    3.Average monthly wage of Chinese might be 5000-8000RMB(1K-1.5K USD).

    4.80%+ of CHinese families will owns cars. and cars sold in CHina is equal to the combined one of the rest of the world,just as steel and concret is now.

    5.CHinese high-speed railway lengh will doubled in 2017....and such a high-speed railway will change Chinese society and economy greatly.

    6.Chinese big commerial jet ,J20 and othe bird will enter into service. in 2017

    7.Chinese Space station will come into service. in 2017

    8.CHina will have 3 AC group at least in 2017
     
  12. badguy2000

    badguy2000 Respected Member Senior Member

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    9. Chinese compass(Beidou) satellite navigation system will occupy most market in CHina and competite GPS in international market .
    in 2017, Indian members here will be able to chose between Compass and GPS ,when they want to fix one on their new cars.

    10.in 2017,60% of CHinese will live in urban area
     
  13. badguy2000

    badguy2000 Respected Member Senior Member

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    11. In 2017, many provinces of PRC, such as Guangdong,Jiangsu and Shangdong will have more GDP than many main economies in the world ,such as S.Korea and Spain.

    12.in 2017 , the real life quality in many CHinese province, such as Guangdong, Zhejiang will be higher than that of S.korea and Taiwan.


    13. In 2017. the nominal GDP of many CHinese cities ,such as Beijing and Shanghai, will be 30K+ USD, quite close to that in West Europe and Japan.
     
  14. badguy2000

    badguy2000 Respected Member Senior Member

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    14. In 2017, “ One kid policy" in CHina will be changed...and CHinese government will encourange young coupe to have more baby.

    And My second baby might have been born...


    15. Many illegal immigrants from poorer countries ,such as Southeast Asia, South Aisa and Black Afirca will rush into CHina ,for higher wage...
    and illegal immigrants will become a big problem in CHina.
     
  15. Patriot

    Patriot Senior Member Senior Member

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    Can't you DO without receiving foreplay from your govt.?
     
  16. badguy2000

    badguy2000 Respected Member Senior Member

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    16. in 2017, more CHinese tourists will rush into other countries . the NO, of CHinese tourists will be equal to the combined of West Europe+USA+Japan, if not surpassed.
    I, badguy200, might have visited India for several times ,in 2017.


    17. many demonstrations agaist CHina, with the banner "down CHinese imperialism" will appear in The Chinese embassies all over the world


    18. CHina will replace USA and become main target of al-qaida and other radical terrorists.
     
  17. badguy2000

    badguy2000 Respected Member Senior Member

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    My wife and I would be fired ,if we were to have the second the baby withou receiving foreplay.


    But if my wife and I were not employees of State-owned enterprises or civial servants, then we could have the second baby ,even without receiving foreplay from the government,at the expense of a small fine( usually 5K USD or so)

    So, in fact, most CHinese working in private enterpises and Chinese farmers has two or more kids......

    only those CHinese civil servants and employees of Chinese state-owned enterpise have to abide "one-kid" policy strctly.
     
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  18. Yusuf

    Yusuf GUARDIAN Administrator

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    Hmm I guess I will be around and I hope you will be around too. I wouldn't be that old in 2030. At least I won't need Viagra till then :rotflmao:
     
  19. Ray

    Ray The Chairman Defence Professionals Moderator

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    Is this 'one kid' rule only for Govt employees?

    If so, what is the logic?

    I thought it was for population control and not to divide society between the commercially employed and the Govt employed.
     
  20. Ray

    Ray The Chairman Defence Professionals Moderator

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    She must be meaning that China will soon nuke the world.

    And only zombies will survive since they reside in the netherworld and so they are dead already, even though they think that they are living!
     
  21. RedDragon

    RedDragon Regular Member

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    :rofl:
    2030? Too far away, let's pass the 2012 first.
     

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