India stranded as region readies for Iran’s surge

Discussion in 'Defence & Strategic Issues' started by SANITY, Apr 10, 2015.

  1. SANITY

    SANITY Regular Member

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    The Wall Street Journal report today with Islamabad dateline quoting local officials that China is willing to build the Iran-Pakistan [IP] gas pipeline doesn’t come as surprise. But the apparent finality about what has been up until now in the realm of intelligent speculation signifies a tectonic shift in the politics of the region. The expected dismantling of the sanctions regime against Iran is triggering reverberations in regional politics and the IP gas pipeline project is evidence of it. Tehran, Islamabad and Beijing are positioning themselves to tap into the new vistas opened by Iran’s integration into the international community. The IP pipeline eminently qualifies to become part of China’s ‘Belt and Road’ initiative, with the underpinning provided by the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and China’s Silk Road Fund. There is a strong likelihood that the pipeline will get extended to China along the so-called Economic Corridor that is being planned via the Karakorum. Conceivably, Iran will welcome an extension of the IP pipeline into China, which, in political terms, would make Beijing a ‘stakeholder’ in the Iran-Pakistan relationship and in turn help stabilize that troubled relationship. A China-Pakistan-Iran strategic axis built on shared concerns of regional stability has far-reaching implications for an entire arc of countries stretching from the Persian Gulf through Afghanistan and Central Asia to China’s Xinjiang Autonomous Region. Needless to say, the realization of the IP pipeline, overcoming the pressure from Saudi Arabia on Pakistan to desist from going ahead with the project, constitutes a major policy statement by Islamabad. Simply put, Islamabad is probing a way out of the stranglehold of the Saudi orbit, finally. The Saudi embrace has been a blessing and a curse for Pakistan and Iran will be the net beneficiary if Pakistan asserts its independence from Saudi Arabia. China’s involvement in the IP pipeline will mean that the Chinese presence in Gwadar is being stepped up dramatically. Pakistan, in turn, is poised to become a major transit route for China to the markets in the Persian Gulf, West Asia and Africa. In sum, Sino-Pakistani strategic partnership is about to touch a qualitatively new level. On the other hand, the focus on the IP pipeline dampens the prospects of the alternate Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India [TAPI] gas pipeline, which the US has been promoting. China wouldn’t want the Turkmen gas reserves to be diverted to South Asia, while Iran too has been averse to competition from the TAPI. In short, India’s hopes of having the TAPI may turn out to be a mere ‘pipe dream’. From the Indian viewpoint, this is of course a sad moment. Isolation in one’s own region is never a good thing to happen, but Indian diplomacy seems to be failing to build partnerships riveted on regional cooperation. The blame lies entirely with the Narendra Modi government. The Modi brand of foreign policy is largely built on hot air and grandstanding and lacks substance. Very little conceptual thinking seems to be going into Modi’s foreign-policy peregrinations. It is all turning out to be sound and fury signifying nothing. The Modi government doesn’t know how to respond to China’s ‘Belt and Road’ initiatives; it has one foot inside the US’ ‘pivot strategy in Asia’ and another foot outside; it plays the ‘Tibet card’ against China but also expects Chinese investments to pour in; and, it regards China as an intruder into its sphere of influence in South Asian and Indian Ocean region. As for Pakistan, the less said the better. No one knows what is on Modi’s mind. His government keeps blowing hot and cold. The Pakistani side seems to have understood that Modi is in no real hurry to resolve the disputes and differences between the two countries, and is marking time. Accordingly, it has decided not to unduly press India further for a constructive engagement with India. When it comes to Iran, that country also probably senses that in the scheme of things of the Hindu nationalist government in India, Islamophobia is the leitmotif for the Hindutva ideologues. The Modi government has neglected to mend India-Iran ties, which have been in a state of disrepair. The Modi government never really understood the dynamics and alchemy of the US-Iranian engagement through the past year. The stunning fact is that there has not been a single high-level visit from India to Iran during Modi’s stewardship through the past 10-month period. It must be a world record of sorts. Thus, the plain truth is that India today lacks a coherent, consistent approach toward China, Pakistan or Iran. And no wonder, India is being visibly left behind at the station while the China-Pakistan-Iran train is pulling out.

    India stranded as region readies for Iran’s surge | Asia Times
     
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  3. roma

    roma NRI in Europe Senior Member

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    if you think carefully you will find that this plan has gaping holes in it .

    also ref @anupamsurey , @sob , @warrior monk; @Rowdy;

    while you gentlemen are writing on a slightly different topic , allow me to address the overall
    topic which is the china-pakjabi-satan nexus to cooperate economically in one way and another

    the basic idea has a lot of variations on that theme but has one basic physical connection route and tht is shown by the diagram in this article :
    Pakistan's Minority Provinces Oppose Changes To China Trade Route

    the initial route would have gone thorough the nwfp border areas and beluouchistan areas
    but now the weight of the 100 million pakjabi population has swayed the much more towards
    their homeland. ...hhahahahahh

    methinks this basic new route through pakjabi-stan is the harbinger of routes to come , the
    way everything else regarding china-pakjabistan cooperation will be routed.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: May 11, 2015
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  4. Sakal Gharelu Ustad

    Sakal Gharelu Ustad Detests Jholawalas Moderator

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    Seriously, the pipeline will cross entire Pakistan, then Tibet and through the most inhospitable climate and then serve final consumers. Would it still be economically feasible?
     
  5. anupamsurey

    anupamsurey Regular Member

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    this is classic example of BS. First of all it is based on things which is speculative, neither the US-Iran deal is finalized, nor the Chinese paki deal. India is doubtful of the pipe deal (TAPI), as it traverses unstable regions of the world (so there is no pipe dream for India), Indian govt has been more focused on Nuclear energy. and it is also wrong to say that India is not in touch with Iran, we are talking about a different cooperation which the ordinary world perception overlooks sometime.
    so in future India will procure its petro products as usually, there will be no major shift in it.
    secondly, how much of co-opertaion between iran-pakistan exist ?
     
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  6. sgarg

    sgarg Senior Member Senior Member

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    India prefers building a gas pipeline via sea. India can always decide to build a separate pipeline from Iran. Any pipeline that China is building need not cross paths with India's pipeline.

    There is too much speculation regarding Iran right now. I would wait for things to settle down before committing billions.
     
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  7. sob

    sob Moderator Moderator

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    Absolute BS article. Mr.Bhadrakumar starts of well and then veers into Modi bashing. He clearly has lost his objectivity as a independent thinker and writer.

    Getting gas from Iran is not just about laying pipelines. The gas fields need billions of dollars to start production. The nuclear deal is still not signed. It is a step in the forward direction.

    Our ties with Iran are very strong.one just has to look into the Yemen case. Only Indian aircraft were allowed to land at at the airport controlled by Houthi's. Who brokered these deals and why??
     
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  8. warrior monk

    warrior monk Regular Member

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  9. Rowdy

    Rowdy Co ja kurwa czytam! Senior Member

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    The new publisher is Asia Times Holdings Limited, incorporated and duly registered in Hong Kong. It derives its revenues from advertising, the resale of original content to other publications and news services.
    :lol:
    :rofl:
     
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  10. Rowdy

    Rowdy Co ja kurwa czytam! Senior Member

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    Good catch roma ji .....
    This will further exacerbate the discontent in pakjab. We need to play our cards right with Iran and have some presence near that border of Pak.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: May 11, 2015
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  11. sorcerer

    sorcerer Senior Member Senior Member

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    Pak under pressure from China is still neutral in the posturing against Iran . Thats the only thing explained by this article.

    Rest is Modi Bashing.

    US would drag Iran into civil unrest to control its oil deliveries.

    I would say..the author of the article did the MAUKA MAUKA dance a bit too early.. :D
     
  12. Ray

    Ray The Chairman Defence Professionals Moderator

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    Bhadrakumar is spinning his own wishful dreams.

    Even if India plays the Tibet card, China will be more than willing to trade with India since her economy is dipping and the Chinese have a weakness when they smell cash.

    The 'one foot in the Asian Pivotal policy' of the US is a guarantee that India can take a lead in the security cooperation with those Nations which are plagued by China's hegemonic pursuit in the SCS.

    And while China may be a beneficiary of the Iran Pakistan gas line and its extension into China, what makes this writer feel that there will be no extension into India? Maybe he does not realise that there is a thaw in the US - Iran relationship and so, the US will have no objection to the extension into India.

    It is not Modi's foreign policy which is all hot air, it is this article which is all hot air.

    In fact, Modi's foreign policy is ridding India of all the isolation that India faced earlier and the relationship is growing stronger all around and India taken to be a pivotal force.
     

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