India set to grow faster than China in 2010: World Bank

[Daredevil]

[mod]No more off-topic posts here. Talk only about Indian & Chinese economy and reasons why would or wouldn't India overtake China in 2010 in GDP growth[/mod]

 

[tarunraju]

Try not to think that "industrialization" is the only way to accommodate the working class, it is one of the ways. There is no hard and fast rule that every developing nation has to follow the agriculture > industry > service route. Sure, there is industrialization, but even if the manufacturing sector is small, it wouldn't affect us. India is moving towards a service-sector economy. "jobs" matter, "working in a factory" doesn't (when the former is able to accommodate the working class).

 

[Vladimir79]

what you said based on one condition: China will never grow its internal market
if you change the China to Russia, then I will agree with you. because Russia's population are shrinking especially for white Russian, the Muslim Russian population is growing though.

Chinese domestic production is fueled by 15-20% direct subsidy and 50% tax rebates. $1.27 trillion in bad banque loans prop up the asset market and state industry operating in the red. $586 billion stimulus spending creates short term construction jobs that only adds fuel to the asset bubble. The Chinese domestic economy is a drain on a state that is spending itself into oblivion.

If you want to talk about demographics, why don't you worry about your own? One child policy of CCP is creating a demographic nightmare. Fewer children born, most being males, means the older generation won't have enough workers to support them and there won't be enough daughters to care for them as is Chinese custom. Pension revenues won't be enough to sustain them. New entrants to the workforce will continue to decrease and Chinese economic growth will have nowhere to go but flat. Russia grew for the first time in 15 years. Registered Muslim population is declining so our problems are being rectified, yours are being exacerbated.

 

[badguy2000]

Try not to think that "industrialization" is the only way to accommodate the working class, it is one of the ways. There is no hard and fast rule that every developing nation has to follow the agriculture > industry > service route. Sure, there is industrialization, but even if the manufacturing sector is small, it wouldn't affect us. India is moving towards a service-sector economy. "jobs" matter, "working in a factory" doesn't (when the former is able to accommodate the working class).

may India be lucky to find its own unique way

BTW ,the way of "skip-manufacturing" has never been available to any economy with a population more than 50 million

it is really very hard to let other accept that India can depend on "skip-manufacturing " like banana states.

 

[badguy2000]

Chinese domestic production is fueled by 15-20% direct subsidy and 50% tax rebates. $1.27 trillion in bad banque loans prop up the asset market and state industry operating in the red. $586 billion stimulus spending creates short term construction jobs that only adds fuel to the asset bubble. The Chinese domestic economy is a drain on a state that is spending itself into oblivion.

If you want to talk about demographics, why don't you worry about your own? One child policy of CCP is creating a demographic nightmare. Fewer children born, most being males, means the older generation won't have enough workers to support them and there won't be enough daughters to care for them as is Chinese custom. Pension revenues won't be enough to sustain them. New entrants to the workforce will continue to decrease and Chinese economic growth will have nowhere to go but flat. Russia grew for the first time in 15 years. Registered Muslim population is declining so our problems are being rectified, yours are being exacerbated.

1. One decade ago, Wall street warned china that CHinese banks would be all " bankrupty" due to enormous "bad loans,just as you warn tody.

Now ,one decade has passed, and what has happened???? indeed some banks have got bankrupty...but they are no chinese banks,but that in wall streets,such as Rayman Bro. Instead, CHinese bank live happily and has sovled most bad loans.4 of global top 10 banks are chinese banks .

It is ironic that the current global finanical crisis has shown that in fact the bad loans of wall street is more serious that anywhere else..

As for bank bad loan.....I think that if you had enough energy ,you should pay more attention to the bad loan of wall street or the daily-increasing fiancial budget red-deficit of USA....

the bad loan of wall street has pull the whole world ,including Russia,into a financial cirsis. if the next global fianical cirsis were to break out again, it must be caused by the red-deficit of Washiongton.....

BTW, as a Russian ,you should pay more attention to the red-deficit of washington, as we all know how terriblely Russia's economy performs in the current crisis, Russian weak economy can not stand another crisis any more....

2. as for chinese demography tendency, I think that your phrases just proves that you brain is full of " one-way" mentality.

If CCP government can make CHinese people accept "one-kid policy", why it can not make chinese people accept "two-kids policy" or even "3-kids policy"...that is just a matter of policy-decision. the success of "one-kid policy" just prove how efficient CCP' policy can be executed!

CCP now has not overtly changed "one-kid policy" ,just because CCP doesn't think the pressue of population explosion has not released yet and it is still not tme to change "one-kid policy".

Frankly speaking ,CHinese demography is much better than Russia...as we all know what is happening to Russia's populaiton.:twizt:
Russia demopraphy disaster is far beyond a matter of policy-decision.

 

[nimo_cn]

problems are not solved. problems are avoided. respect of people's verdict.
just because a project is cancelled does not mean those people in that area lost out on jobs etc.. they are engaged in their own jobs/activities. infact that is the reason they oppose a certain project in the first place. their is no loss.

Yes, cancelling the project will not create new problems, because there will be no change. But there certainly would be loss if we take the potential people who will benefit from the project. I dont know in what scenario the project would be cancelled in Inida, so it is important to figure out under which circumstances the project should be cancelled, because almost every major project will be opposed by people in some degree, we can't cancell al of them.

If the project was cancelled because there were just a few people oppose, even if the project was very critical to the growth,such as a bridge, a dam, then i think it is unwise. By cancelling the project, you may save some problems, at the same time you also ignore the interests of others.

i hope. you pray.

I dont need to pray, the growth is there, i can see it, i can feel it, i am personally involved in the process of the gowth. Plus i dont believe in god.

you are fixated only on growth. quality of life is a mix of growth and a fundamental right to enjoy freedom.

Right to enjoy freedom alone is hollow, it is growth that makes the right meaningful.

yes. that is what i meant.

China is not the only developing country that is suffering from that, How about the situation in Inida? And even country like USA, which surely is economically and democratically superior to both China and India, can't get rid of that.

In fact, I am interested how Inida will deal with that, any explanations, friends?

you are completely export oriented economy. any adverse global impact will hurt you. india is domestic driven and hence safe.

In a time of globalization, no country can be shield from the adeverse impact of the outside. It is true China is an export oriented economy which is totally exposed, but that situation is temporary, China sees this financial crisis as an opportunity to upgrade the industry and transform the economy into a more domestic driven one.

 

[ppgj]

But there certainly would be loss if we take the potential people who will benefit from the project.

you are thinking only of future potential beneficiaries but what about justice to the existing inhabitants? you want to put them away in some alien place and expect them to fend for themselves? people have centuries of attachment to their respective lands and region. you just can't steal it. growth has to be progressive not regressive. it also needs to be just and fair to all.

because almost every major project will be opposed by people in some degree, we can't cancell al of them.

opposition does not happen in every case. it is a possibility in some cases and state has to respect people's opinion. that is what works in democracy.

If the project was cancelled because there were just a few people oppose, even if the project was very critical to the growth,such as a bridge, a dam, then i think it is unwise. By cancelling the project, you may save some problems, at the same time you also ignore the interests of others.

same as above.

Plus i dont believe in god.

one does not pray only to god.

Right to enjoy freedom alone is hollow, it is growth that makes the right meaningful.

growth, justice and freedom. they go hand in hand.

In fact, I am interested how Inida will deal with that, any explanations, friends?

there are plenty of problems in india just like in any other country. india is giving emphasis on rural infrastructure and agriculture.
there is a national program NREGA where every rural unemployed is given 2 dollars for the rural infrastructure work they are engaged for by the govt. they are engaged in rural roads, desilting of lakes etc..

In a time of globalization, no country can be shield from the adeverse impact of the outside. It is true China is an export oriented economy which is totally exposed, but that situation is temporary, China sees this financial crisis as an opportunity to upgrade the industry and transform the economy into a more domestic driven one.

agree. but since india is domestic driven hurts less. india and china both have to find middle ground between their existing status.

 

[Vladimir79]

1. One decade ago, Wall street warned china that CHinese banks would be all " bankrupty" due to enormous "bad loans,just as you warn tody.

And the CCP had an interesting "fix" to hide them. Take all non-performing loans and shift them to asset management corps... very slick. You get liabilities off the books and continue like it never happened. Problem is those AMCs are going to be disolved and those NPLs they didn't dump will come due. Estimates are as high as $1 trillion. Considering you can't dump FOREX to pay for them without devaluing the return... figure it out.

Now ,one decade has passed, and what has happened???? indeed some banks have got bankrupty...but they are no chinese banks,but that in wall streets,such as Rayman Bro. Instead, CHinese bank live happily and has sovled most bad loans.4 of global top 10 banks are chinese banks.

What has happened is delaying judgment day. AMCs have taken them off the banque books, but they are still there. As of 2008 only 50% had been sold and at a 75% loss. Chinese asset management corps are worthless and growing at a threefold rate today due to banques trying to dump more insolvent debts. Since AMCs were funded with bonds, they will have to be paid back. When this happens, Chinese banques will have to foot the bill. Now that you have $1.27 trillion new debt floating around this year, you just doubled the problem.

It is ironic that the current global finanical crisis has shown that in fact the bad loans of wall street is more serious that anywhere else..

As for bank bad loan.....I think that if you had enough energy ,you should pay more attention to the bad loan of wall street or the daily-increase fiancial budget red-deficit of USA....

the bad loan of wall street has pull the whole world ,including Russia,into a financial cirsis. if the next global fianical cirsis were to break out again, it must be caused by the red-deficit of Washiongton.....

Amerikans have a GDP big enough to absorb their bad debts, when China matches US spending and lending, it is two different worlds $3 trillion vs $13 trillion... US faces their problems which leads to real market corrections. China pushes them under the rug hoping breakneck growth will cover it... it won't.

BTW, as a Russian ,you should pay more attention to the red-deficit of washington, as we all know how terrible Russia's economy performs in the current crisis, Russian weak economy can not stand another crisis any more....

Russian crises was caused by commodity devaluation... China will be the cause of the next which is why we look there.

2. as for chinese demography tendency, I think that your phrases just proves that you brain is full of " one-way" mentality.

If CCP government can make CHinese people accept "one-kid policy", why it can not make chinese people accept "two-kids policy" or even "3-kids policy"...that is just a matter of policy-decision. the success of "one-kid policy" just prove how efficient CCP' policy can be executed!

CCP now has not overtly change "one-kid policy" ,just because CCP doesn't think the pressue of population explosion has not released yet and it is still not tme to change "one-kid policy".

Sure... CCP has been real successful with their "Smoke-free China" campaign with 30% of all smokers in the world with 75% of males addicted.

Frankly speaking ,CHinese demography is much better than Russia...as we all know what is happening to Russia's populaiton.:twizt:
Russia demopraphy disaster is far beyond a matter of policy-decision.

Latest statistics don't agree with you. Russian births exceeded deaths... the policy is working, yours are failing.

 

[badguy2000]

And the CCP had an interesting "fix" to hide them. Take all non-performing loans and shift them to asset management corps... very slick. You get liabilities off the books and continue like it never happened. Problem is those AMCs are going to be disolved and those NPLs they didn't dump will come due. Estimates are as high as $1 trillion. Considering you can't dump FOREX to pay for them without devaluing the return... figure it out.

What has happened is delaying judgment day. AMCs have taken them off the banque books, but they are still there. As of 2008 only 50% had been sold and at a 75% loss. Chinese asset management corps are worthless and growing at a threefold rate today due to banques trying to dump more insolvent debts. Since AMCs were funded with bonds, they will have to be paid back. When this happens, Chinese banques will have to foot the bill. Now that you have $1.27 trillion new debt floating around this year, you just doubled the problem.

some clues should be given to you. guy, I have been working for chinese banks since 2000.....I should know about chinese banks much more clearly than you.....



1. the NO. of shifted NPLs is about 1.7 trillion RMB( about 200 billion USD at the exchange rate at that time)
Since 2000,about 1.7 trillon RMB(about 200 billion USD ) NPLs were shifted to asset management corps from Chinese 4 biggest banks .

About 25% of those shifted NPLs have been taken back and 75% of them will be at loss. So the total loss should be about 1.2-1.3 trillion RMB(about 150 billion USD.

2. Those NPLs were indeed serious challenge to Chinese banks one decade ago.

In 2000, the total asset of Chinese 4 biggest banks was only about only 4 trillion RMB(about 600 billion USD).

So,before the shift of NPLs in 2000 or so, about 30% assets of chinese biggest banks are NPLs....terrible,isn't it?



3. Now,those NPLs are almost negligible to the total asset of Chinese banks today. In 2009, the total asset of CHinese 4 biggest banks has expanded to 30-40 trillion RMB( about 5-6 triilion USD).

In 2009,Chinese biggest bank, ICBC, has a total asset of over 10 trillion RMB(about 1.5 trillion USD). that is, ICBC's asset is more than the GDP of India.it makes ICBC become the global biggest bank. the other 3 of chinese "Big 4" are just slimly smaller than ICBC.

So, even if the 1.7trillion RMB NPLs were all at loss, it would be just a piece of cake to 30-40 trillion RMB assets of Chinese 4 biggest banks.In fact, as you refered, about 25% of the 1.7 trillion RMB can be taken back.

 

[Vladimir79]

some clues should be given to you. guy, I have been working for chinese banks since 2000.....I should know about chinese banks much more clearly than you.....

And I have been a contracts analyst for the last eight years, working extensively in China. It is my job to know the financials of our business ventures. Am I supposed to be impressed?

1. the NO. of shifted NPLs is about 1.7 trillion RMB( about 200 billion USD at the exchange rate at that time)
Since 2000,about 1.7 trillon RMB(about 200 billion USD ) NPLs were shifted to asset management corps from Chinese 4 biggest banks .

About 25% of those shifted NPLs have been taken back and 75% of them will be at loss. So the total loss should be about 1.2-1.3 trillion RMB(about 150 billion USD.

2. Those NPLs were indeed serious challenge to Chinese banks one decade ago.

In 2000, the total asset of Chinese 4 biggest banks was only about only 4 trillion RMB(about 600 billion USD).

So,before the shift of NPLs in 2000 or so, about 30% assets of chinese biggest banks are NPLs....terrible,isn't it?

You are only talking about Tranche 1 (1.4 trillion) 1999. You are forgetting tranche 2 (2004) amounting to RMB 1.3 trillion and tranche 3 (2008) amounting to RMB 816 billion. Tranche 4 will include what ever is left on the books and the mounting years losses. Real world estimates place the remaining balance at $911 billion according to an Ernst & Young audit. The first tranche's (RMB 1.4 trillion) 10 year bonds will come due at the end of the year and the rest of the tranches will follow accordingly. The unreported funds will come out soon enough.

3. Now,those NPLs are almost negligible to the total asset of Chinese banks today. In 2009, the total asset of CHinese 4 biggest banks has expanded to 30-40 trillion RMB( about 5-6 triilion USD).

In 2009,Chinese biggest bank, ICBC, has a total asset of over 10 trillion RMB(about 1.5 trillion USD). that is, ICBC's asset is more than the GDP of India.it makes ICBC become the global biggest bank. the other 3 of chinese "Big 4" are just slimly smaller than ICBC.

So, even if the 1.7trillion RMB NPLs were all at loss, it would be just a piece of cake to 30-40 trillion RMB assets of Chinese 4 biggest banks.In fact, as you refered, about 25% of the 1.7 trillion RMB can be taken back.

$1 trillion in insolvent debt is not negligable when you are going to double it when your asset bubble bursts. Can you shore up $2 trillion insolvency in the next decade with low growth... no way. Your total liabilties are RMB 50 trillion... your money ain't going anywhere and that bubble will kill your asset value.

 

[badguy2000]

And I have been a contracts analyst for the last eight years, working extensively in China. It is my job to know the financials of our business ventures. Am I supposed to be impressed?



You are only talking about Tranche 1 (1.4 trillion) 1999. You are forgetting tranche 2 (2004) amounting to RMB 1.3 trillion and tranche 3 (2008) amounting to RMB 816 billion. Tranche 4 will include what ever is left on the books and the mounting years losses. Real world estimates place the remaining balance at $911 billion according to an Ernst & Young audit. The first tranche's (RMB 1.4 trillion) 10 year bonds will come due at the end of the year and the rest of the tranches will follow accordingly. The unreported funds will come out soon enough.

In china,3 "shifts of NPLs" have taken place in the past decade altogether.
the NO. of shifted NPLs is 2.187 trillion RMB( about 250 billion USD)
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Shift 1: in 1999,1.4 trillion RMB( about 170 billion USD) NPLs were shifted to ACMs (assets management corps) from Chinese 4 biggest banks( big 4).

Shift 2: In 2004,before CCB( Chinese construction bank) and BOC( Bank of China),two of "big 4" and CCB(Chinese Communication Bank,a smaller bank) marketed their IPO in 2004, 0.2787 trillion RMB NPLs( about 30 billion USD) were shifted from them to ACMs.

Shift 3: In 2005,before ICBC, the biggest one of "big 4",marketed its IPO,0.45 trillion RMB NPLs ( about 50 billion USD) were shifted to AMCs.

 

[Vladimir79]

In china,3 "shifts of NPLs" have taken place in the past decade altogether.
the NO. of shifted NPLs is 2.187 trillion RMB( about 250 billion USD)
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And you just finished saying... "1. the NO. of shifted NPLs is about 1.7 trillion RMB"

​

2007 placed NPLs at 4 trillion RMB and that was before the 816 billion for 2008 in tranche 3. With this years losses you are looking at 6 trillion RMB.

 

[p2prada]

China Herald: Non-performing loans heading for a stress test - Arthur Kroeber

Chinese NPLs can be divided into four tranches. Tranche 1 is Rmb1,400bn removed from the “Big Four” commercial banks – Bank of China (BoC), China Construction Bank (CCB), Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) and Agricultural Bank of China (ABC) – and China Development Bank in 1999.

Tranche 2 is Rmb1,300bn removed from the first three of the Big Four in 2004-05 as they were being prepared for international stock market listings, plus some other bits and pieces from other banks in 2007.

Tranche 3 is Rmb816bn removed from ABC in 2008, presumably preparing the ground for it to list.

And Tranche 4 consists of whatever NPLs still sit on the banks’ balance sheets, especially as a result of this year’s lending binge.

Strategy was: rolling them over into the future. But a time-bomb is ticking, depending on the economic growth rate of the country. The burden for the future is substantial, but not catastrophic, writes Kroeber:

But this bet absolutely cannot be placed a third time.

The above scenarios only work if the financial system generates no net new NPLs in 2011-2019 beyond the banks’ own ability to provision and write down.

After 2020, demographic and other factors will turn unfavourable, and the structural real GDP growth rate will fall from 10 per cent in 1980-2008, and an expected 8 per cent or so in 2010-2020, to around 5 per cent. When that happens, growth can no longer erase past NPLs – only inflation can.

If the rate of growth cannot be sustained then the NPLs will simply mothball into a huge problem. There are already fears of rise in inflation in China.

The Chinese banks have already provided 2.5Trillion RMB in loans in the first 2 months of 2009. That figure was supposed to have taken 6 months to reach and not 2. I don't know the current figure for the month of October. But, one things for sure, hoping on future growth for covering up these losses is questionable.

China will see inflation rising in the coming months. And the CCP will not try to bring it in control as quickly as possible as its a source of revenue for the govt.

Don't forget that China is sitting with $2Trillion in reserves and the US govt is printing Dollars like they are possessed. The losses due to strengthening of the Yuan is not recoverable as of now.

 

[badguy2000]

China Herald: Non-performing loans heading for a stress test - Arthur Kroeber



If the rate of growth cannot be sustained then the NPLs will simply mothball into a huge problem. There are already fears of rise in inflation in China.

The Chinese banks have already provided 2.5Trillion RMB in loans in the first 2 months of 2009. That figure was supposed to have taken 6 months to reach and not 2. I don't know the current figure for the month of October. But, one things for sure, hoping on future growth for covering up these losses is questionable.

well, the additional loans in the first 9 months of 2009 is 7 trillion RMB

China will see inflation rising in the coming months. And the CCP will not try to bring it in control as quickly as possible as its a source of revenue for the govt.

Don't forget that China is sitting with $2Trillion in reserves and the US govt is printing Dollars like they are possessed. The losses due to strengthening of the Yuan is not recoverable as of now.

Chinese authorities is more wary of inflation than you.

in fact, it was in July that CHinese center bank started to raise rediscount rate silently.

guy,

after talking with you, I find that most non-chinese people really don't know how chinese economy works,Chinese economy work in a unique way while [mod] No personal categorisation
for other members[/mod]

 

[Vladimir79]

The problem is for China, they have about $1 trillion in NPLs floating around the economy getting shifted from one sector to the next to cover it up. Their total banque assets are around 7 trillion but those are overvalued by as much as 50%. When their asset bubble bursts, it will be more like 3-4 trillion with about $2 trillion in NPLs. With RMB 50 trillion in liabilities, the total banqing sector will collapse, which is 80% of the Chinese economy. The world will hit another recession all thanks to irresponsible Chinese policy.

 

[p2prada]

well, the additional loans in the first 9 months of 2009 is 7 trillion RMB...

That's huge.

Chinese authorities is more wary of infaltion than you.

Any country is.

in fact, it was in July that CHinese center bank started to raise rediscount rate silently.

That would put the banks under tremendous pressure. Nevertheless, the banks are all state owned. So, any losses it generates can be hidden. Inflation is the only sure shot way of revenue generation directly from the populace. But, rising inflation will mean lesser domestic consumption. Messed up.

guy,

after talking with you, I find that most non-chinese people really don't know how chinese economy works........ Chinese economy work in a unique way while non-chinese here try to understand and explain it in a west mentality....

Then can you explain how it works. According to me, If a banks NPL ratios are higher than usual, then it means trouble. According to me, I want to get back the money I have invested with a profit and not a loss.

Let me tell you something, even we have PSUs(Public Sector Undertaking or state owned companies). All PSUs work under directions of the state and are bailed out by the state whenever the companies generate losses. Consistent losses will obviously result in more bailouts. And most of these bailouts cost the state. The state will in turn have to generate more money through other means, namely inflation and in the case of banks, rediscount rates.

In China, even if the rediscount rates are higher or lower, it does not matter since the increase in rediscount rates will only result in money circulation rather than revenue generation. Raising the rediscount rates will not matter at all if it is the state that foots the bills in the end, as in the stimulus. Right now, CCP is focusing on "future" growth rates and stability in the US market for recovering whatever was lost in the stimulus package.

In India the ratio of NPLs is less than 2.5% while it is more than 15% in China.
RIETI - The Chinese Economy After the Burst of the Bubble - Lessons to be learned from Japan

The 2.5% figure for India is as of 2009 while the figure for China is as of 2003. The ratio is much higher now compared to 2003 especially after Tranche 2,3 and 4 that happened after 2003.

India's oil refineries lose money*because of*price controls - October 16, 2006
This is the condition of oil companies in India. They are state controlled except for one(Reliance). All these companies are in the red. They are all facing losses due to Govt Price Controls and are a drain on the exchequer. This is the same condition with your financial sector in China. And this time price control will not save the govt.

You can expect to add another 2Trillion RMB as NPLs this year too. The figures keep ballooning.

 

[badguy2000]

Then can you explain how it works. According to me, If a banks NPL ratios are higher than usual, then it means trouble. According to me, I want to get back the money I have invested with a profit and not a loss.

Let me tell you something, even we have PSUs(Public Sector Undertaking or state owned companies). All PSUs work under directions of the state and are bailed out by the state whenever the companies generate losses. Consistent losses will obviously result in more bailouts. And most of these bailouts cost the state. The state will in turn have to generate more money through other means, namely inflation and in the case of banks, rediscount rates.

In China, even if the rediscount rates are higher or lower, it does not matter since the increase in rediscount rates will only result in money circulation rather than revenue generation. Raising the rediscount rates will not matter at all if it is the state that foots the bills in the end, as in the stimulus. Right now, CCP is focusing on "future" growth rates and stability in the US market for recovering whatever was lost in the stimulus package.

In India the ratio of NPLs is less than 2.5% while it is more than 15% in China.
RIETI - The Chinese Economy After the Burst of the Bubble - Lessons to be learned from Japan

The 2.5% figure for India is as of 2009 while the figure for China is as of 2003. The ratio is much higher now compared to 2003 especially after Tranche 2,3 and 4 that happened after 2003.

I can't help laughing
who tell you the ratio is much higher now?Please check the data,

 

[Vladimir79]

I can't help laughing
who tell you the ratio is much higher now?Please check the data,

Why don't you look at the data? The four tranches are several times higher than your 1.7 trillion RMB figure. Tranche one was almost that high to begin with. NPLs are posted since 2007 in front of your face... add the rest up and open your eyes.

 

[badguy2000]

Why don't you look at the data? The four tranches are several times higher than your 1.7 trillion RMB figure. Tranche one was almost that high to begin with. NPLs are posted since 2007 in front of your face... add the rest up and open your eyes.

here are the data from CBRC(China bankng regulatory Commission)

NPLs of Commercial Banks as of end-2007

the data as of the end of 2007. the total NPLs was 1.2684 trillion RMB,and the total loan is about 20.55 trillion RMB.so,the nominal NPLs rate loans was 6.17%.

Plus the 2.2 trillion NPLs shifted to ACMs, the real NPLs rate should be about 15.73%.




here is the data as of the end of the second quarter,2009. it is in CHinese,because english data has not be published yet. But I have irised out the NPLs and NPLs rate.

the NO. of NPL is 0.5181 trillion RMB and the nominal NPLs rate is only 1.77%,because the total loan has expanded to 29.13 trillion.

Plus the shifted 2.2 tirllion RMB NPLs, the real NPLs rate should be about 8.675%.

http://www.cbrc.gov.cn/chinese/home/jsp/docView.jsp?docID=200904155E004A7A0C32938AFF571355750A6800

here

here is the link of CBRC.
http://www.cbrc.gov.cn/chinese/home/jsp/index.jsp

 

[badguy2000]

Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited

here is the 2009 interim financial report of ICBC, Chinese biggest bank and global biggest bank now.
it is one of "big 4"
the bank is listed on the stock market of Shanghai and that of Hongkong at the same time.
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited


ICBC's NPLs rate as of the end of 2008 was 2.29%;
Its NPLs rate as of the end of June,2009 was 1.81%;


guy,PLS learn to analyze first handed data by yourself.....otherwise you will be misled by some expert so called.

BTW, I am working for a small Chinese bank and its NPLs rate is far less than 1%.