India, Pakistan to sign four-nation gas deal

Discussion in 'Economy & Infrastructure' started by LETHALFORCE, Dec 10, 2010.

  1. LETHALFORCE

    LETHALFORCE Moderator Moderator

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    http://sify.com/news/india-pakistan-to-sign-four-nation-gas-deal-news-international-kmjtkpfjeii.html

    Islamabad, Dec 9 (IANS) India, Pakistan, Afghanistan and Turkmenistan will sign two cooperative pacts Saturday on a $7.6-billion gas pipeline project linking the four countries, a media report said Thursday.

    The presidents of Pakistan, Afghanistan and Turkmenistan will attend the signing ceremony in Ashgabat, the capital of Turkmenistan, while Petroleum Minister Murli Deora will head the Indian delegation, Geo TV reported.

    The 1,640-km Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline project, conceived in 1995, was initially designed to provide gas from Turkmenistan to Pakistan through Afghanistan. India was invited to join the project in 2008.

    The pipeline will connect Pakistan's national gas network near Multan and Fazilka in the Indian state of Punjab after passing through Afghanistan and Turkmenistan.

    The four countries will ink two agreements covering the operational aspects of the project, the report said.

    The Pakistani cabinet has already approved the project, which will make available 30 billion cubic meters of gas to the country annually.

    The report said Pakistan is prepared to buy additional gas if India backs out of the project at any stage.

    Turkmenistan has the world's fourth largest proven reserves of gas and is already providing gas to Russia and China.

    After the signing of the agreements, international bids will be sought from energy companies to launch the project that is likely to be completed by 2014.

    Ashgabat is likely to include the Southern Yoloten-Osman and Dovletabad gas fields in the project to ensure regular supply. Pakistan is expected to offer assistance to develop these gas fields
     
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  3. Yusuf

    Yusuf GUARDIAN Administrator

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    Really? IPI which is a bigger prospect has been all but shelved because of Indias security concerns. How can this one go through?
     
  4. utubekhiladi

    utubekhiladi The Preacher Elite Member

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    do anybody think that pakistan has got one more arrow in his quiver to use it against India?

    I am sure pakistan will use this pipeline to their advantage by threating to damage or cut-off supply. if they do so, our assets which becomes dependent on this pipeline will be effected; effecting our economy.
     
    Last edited: Dec 10, 2010
  5. ganesh177

    ganesh177 Regular Member

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    So if they can blow pipeline in pakistan, then we can blow it in afghanistan (through our assets )to cut off the supply to pakistan.

    I think IPI was axed not just becoz of security concern, but due to american pressure. Nuclear waiver was not for nothing.
     
  6. utubekhiladi

    utubekhiladi The Preacher Elite Member

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    It is not about blowing up their pipelines in afghan or somewhere to get revenge. it is about the gravity of the damage that will effect our economy. pakistan's economy has got nothing major to lose if we cut-off their supply. let me give you an example

    lets say we have 100 industries that has become so much dependent on gasoline that is supplied by this pipeline. now this 100 industries brings in combined revenue of about $ usd 5 billion. this 100 industries together employ about 1,00,000 employes. now if pakistan cuts-off the pipeline. we lose all the money that we invested in bringing this pipeline from Turkmenistan all the way to India. this 100 industries will come to screeching halt. all 1,00,000 labors will go jobless until pipelines are reopened. we lose a good amount of 5 usd billion dollar revenue. there are many consequences.

    i am not saying that we cannot supply gasoline to these industries using different sources. what i am trying to say is.... In the long run, if these pipelines are closed then somewhere in the equation it is going to cost us heavily. so pakistan WILL use these pipelines as their shield.
     
    Last edited: Dec 10, 2010
  7. utubekhiladi

    utubekhiladi The Preacher Elite Member

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    i see all pipelines deals running through pakistan as shooting on our own limbs.
     
  8. ganesh177

    ganesh177 Regular Member

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    That is the risk india has to take on any pipeline running thru pakistan.
    And if pakistan is also a beneficiary to this pipeline then it is not right to say that it will not affect them. Infact considering the condition of their economy they are prone to have direct effects same way as it will have on india.

    As far as india is concerned we can minimise the effects by not totally depending on this gas. TAPI wont be sufficient enough for india, we have to keep working for underwater pipeline from oman or qatar. India is already heavily investing in nuclear energy.

    If the TAPI pipe is blown then its not that our world will go upside down, there are ways to deal with that too.

    And instead of being cynical lets hope that there is no blowing of pipes and india, pakistan both benefit from it.
     
  9. utubekhiladi

    utubekhiladi The Preacher Elite Member

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    I am sorry, i did't made it clear last time. what i actually meant by saying "pakistan has nothing major to lose...." is they will blow up the pipeline close to the Indian border. by taking this action pakistan can still enjoy their supply of gasoline while the pipeline is closed for india.

    now if the same pipeline is reaching china through Indian soil then we are in good shape.
     
  10. ejazr

    ejazr Stars and Ambassadors Stars and Ambassadors

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    There is big push for TAPI from America as well. TAPI is expected to provide a source of income to Afghansitan as well. BEsides, security has been guaranteed by both Pakistan and Afghanistan. The clause for late deliveries are also included in the payment mechanism.

    I think its a smart way of getting Central Asian econmies hooked to Indian market. China is already piped into Central Asia and its about time India makes some direct forays quickly. The IPI will not take off unless the sanctions are lifted from Iran, and that still seems a while away.
     
  11. thakur_ritesh

    thakur_ritesh Administrator Administrator

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    no mate ipi never had to do anything with security or the economics which were just excuses thrown by the indian side but everything to do with american pressure, sanctions and the nuke deal. let alone ipi, at this moment even ipp (iran-pak pipeline) is not on cards.

    tapi could very well happen, there is the american factor which is what is pushing this deal much like the way the americans want india to move away from iran to ksa/gcc for sourcing of its energy needs from the mid-east and so far they have been quite successful at that.
     
  12. anoop_mig25

    anoop_mig25 Senior Member Senior Member

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    althouh i do not have any link but i have read that india is ready to receive gas at Turkmenistan-Afghanistan border then at indo-pak border now what d u think isnt this is stupidity . it means if anything wrong happes between indo-pak then, pak can easily cut-off line while we would have no one but ourself to defend and have to negotiate as well as and also to gave up on their demand if we want our share of oil

    what does this stupid government thinks by paying money to pak we would win hearts of pak government / army sorry this people would never give up on kashmir. kashmir is close to their heart/mind. pak`s foregin is run by there army not by any government

    i am sure major part of tranist fee would go in nursing terrorist against india by pakistanis policymakers

    if one doesnt want to go ahead with IRAN then there is quatar deal government can go ahead it with as well as can make more investment in it

    hell how much this governemnt is going to bend to please their american masters
     
  13. Yusuf

    Yusuf GUARDIAN Administrator

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    Mate but it is a security risk. We are left to Pak whims and fancies for our energy. And they will make money out of us while killing our people as well.. I am not too comfortable with this idea.
    Plus a deal like this will further push Iran away from us as we have use the Pak excuse for not going through with the project and now we go in for such a pipeline??
    Well it all comes back to the strategically important PoK and GB areas which gives us better access to CAR. So more than anything else, India should look to get back those areas of ours for energy security.
     
  14. thakur_ritesh

    thakur_ritesh Administrator Administrator

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    mate though i agree with what you have said, but again those are not the primary concerns. security, economics and indirectly feeding the enemy are there as a concern but not what they are made out to be. the primary reason we did not go for ipi was america and nothing more, infact this became a major irritant between india and russia when putin was the prez and so it became the main reason for india being shunted out of tajikistan airbase, reasons sighted for not doing the deal that we discuss are the excuses thrown by the bureaucracy and yes there is a point there but real thing is something else.

    actually mate my sense is india will negotiate on taking the deliveries at the indian border and only then count that supply as sale. if this happens then that will put iran in a spot in the future negotiations. i would like to see the deliveries happen on the indian border and if that happens we should all be fine with it.

    as far as indirectly feeding the enemy, well mate the only lasting solution for the enemy is a break-up of that country and with the new countries under indian influence but that is not happening without american interference and from the looks of it that is not happening anytime soon, other than that the enemy will keep finding means to target us irrespective of us using their land as transit or not but if we can have a pipeline then in future we could very well have a transit facility for our goods to mid-east, car, eu. if china plans to do it, we should not be left behind.

    PS: man these errors!
     
  15. Yusuf

    Yusuf GUARDIAN Administrator

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    India seriously has to start looking at getting back kashmir and other areas occupied by pak not only on the basis of getting back our land but also from the point of view of its strategic importance to being Indias gateway to CAR. Plus breaking that F'ed up country.
     
  16. LETHALFORCE

    LETHALFORCE Moderator Moderator

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    This is because Indian Govt had no foresight or strategic sense to hold and maintain important terrirtory, any land pipeline deal will always involve Pakistan, another victory for the Pakistanis strategists.
     
  17. LETHALFORCE

    LETHALFORCE Moderator Moderator

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    http://www.steelguru.com/middle_eas...on_Turkmenistan_gas_pipeline_deal/180753.html

    India signs four nation Turkmenistan gas pipeline deal


    India, Turkmenistan, Afghanistan and Pakistan signed 2 pacts on a gas pipeline project linking the 4 countries. The four nations signed an inter government agreement on the Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan and India Natural Gas Pipeline Framework, as well as a deal on measures to implement the project in Ashgabat the capital of Turkmenistan.

    The presidents of Pakistan, Afghanistan and Turkmenistan attended the signing ceremony while the Indian delegation was headed by Minister for Petroleum and Natural Gas Mr Murli Deora. After the ceremony, Mr Deora said that the 4 sides should handle several tough issues such as price and safety.

    Mr Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov president of Turkmenistan said that after the pipeline with a length of 1,735 kilometers was constructed, Turkmenistan would send enough natural gas to the other three countries to meet the needs of their fast developing economy.

    Mr Hamid Karzai president of Afghanistan said that Afghanistan would secure the construction and operation of the pipeline.

    Mr Asif Ali Zardari president of Pakistan said that the successful transmission of natural gas would highly promote the economic development in the three countries and would also help combat terrorism.

    According to reports, after the pipeline is built, Turkmenistan will transport about 33 billion cubic meters of natural gas. The whole project would cost USD 4 billion. The project, conceived in 1995 was initially designed to provide gas from Turkmenistan to Pakistan through Afghanistan. India was invited to join the project in 2008.

    Turkmenistan has the world's fourth largest proven reserves of gas and is already providing gas to Russia and China. Turkmenistan sells natural gas to China at USD 7.5 per million British thermal unit.
     
  18. LETHALFORCE

    LETHALFORCE Moderator Moderator

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    http://www.steelguru.com/middle_eas...on_Turkmenistan_gas_pipeline_deal/180753.html

    India signs four nation Turkmenistan gas pipeline deal


    India, Turkmenistan, Afghanistan and Pakistan signed 2 pacts on a gas pipeline project linking the 4 countries. The four nations signed an inter government agreement on the Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan and India Natural Gas Pipeline Framework, as well as a deal on measures to implement the project in Ashgabat the capital of Turkmenistan.

    The presidents of Pakistan, Afghanistan and Turkmenistan attended the signing ceremony while the Indian delegation was headed by Minister for Petroleum and Natural Gas Mr Murli Deora. After the ceremony, Mr Deora said that the 4 sides should handle several tough issues such as price and safety.

    Mr Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov president of Turkmenistan said that after the pipeline with a length of 1,735 kilometers was constructed, Turkmenistan would send enough natural gas to the other three countries to meet the needs of their fast developing economy.

    Mr Hamid Karzai president of Afghanistan said that Afghanistan would secure the construction and operation of the pipeline.

    Mr Asif Ali Zardari president of Pakistan said that the successful transmission of natural gas would highly promote the economic development in the three countries and would also help combat terrorism.

    According to reports, after the pipeline is built, Turkmenistan will transport about 33 billion cubic meters of natural gas. The whole project would cost USD 4 billion. The project, conceived in 1995 was initially designed to provide gas from Turkmenistan to Pakistan through Afghanistan. India was invited to join the project in 2008.

    Turkmenistan has the world's fourth largest proven reserves of gas and is already providing gas to Russia and China. Turkmenistan sells natural gas to China at USD 7.5 per million British thermal unit.
     
  19. SHASH2K2

    SHASH2K2 New Member

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    I donot know why we are not concentrating on Undersea pipeline that will be free from interference and blackmail by Pakistan. We should find a way to avoid Pakistan altogether. Why give them access to more and more money to be used against us ?
     
  20. LETHALFORCE

    LETHALFORCE Moderator Moderator

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    http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/LL16Df01.html


    Pipeline project a new Silk Road

    An American diplomatic cable that puts Washington to shame originated from the United States Embassy in Ashgabat last December, portraying Turkmen President Gurbanguli Berdymukhamedov as "vain, suspicious, guarded, strict, very conservative, a practiced liar", a good actor who can be vindictive but isn't a "very bright guy" and is wary of his intellectual superiors.

    The WikiLeaks revelation is not likely to please Berdymukhamedov. Yet the irony is that it is this allegedly insecure, mediocre, mercurial politician with a racy private life who is set to make the critical difference between the success and failure of the US strategy in Afghanistan.

    The significance of the signing of the inter-governmental agreement over the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India
    (TAPI) gas-pipeline project on Saturday in Ashgabat cannot be underestimated. It is a unique Silk Road project that holds the key to resolving many complicated issues in the region.

    The project is ostensibly about the transportation of the huge Caspian energy reserves to the world market, but it is also about the stabilization of Afghanistan, fostering of Pakistan-India amity, bonding of Central Asia and South Asia and the overall consolidation of US political, military and economic influence in the strategic high plateau that overlooks Russia, Iran and China.

    Ashgabat tips its hand
    TAPI is tiptoeing to center stage in the geopolitics of the region primarily due to the pressing need for Ashgabat to find new markets for its gas exports. With the global financial downturn and the fall in Europe's demand for gas, prices crashed. Russia cannot afford to pay top dollar (“European prices”) for the Turkmen gas, nor does it want the 40 bcm (billion cubic meters) of Turkmen gas it previously contracted to purchase.

    Ashgabat faces an acute dilemma. Turkmenistan traditionally produces around 70 bcm of gas annually. The volume dropped to 40 bcm this year. Roughly 10 bcm goes to Russia and 12 bcm each to Iran and China. The gas revenue has dramatically fallen and the Turkmen political system is under pressure.

    Several large gas fields are coming on line in Russia, which will reduce its need for Turkmen gas. The Yamal Peninsula deposit alone is estimated to hold roughly 16 trillion cubic meters of gas. Yamal can easily feed both the North Stream (55 bcm at full capacity) and South Stream (63 bcm at full capacity) pipelines and still have a surplus.

    Meanwhile, Turkmenistan is sitting on the world's fourth-largest gas reserves and plans to increase its gas production to 230 bcm per year by 2030. It desperately needs to find markets and build new pipelines independent of the Soviet-era pipeline system that binds it to Russia.

    The South Yolotan field, 350 kilometers to the southeast of Ashgabat, is potentially one of the world's largest natural-gas deposits, with reserves anywhere between 4 and 14 trillion cubic meters. Ashgabat awarded Chinese, United Arab Emirates and South Korean companies with contracts worth US$9.7 billion last December to develop the field. Also, Caspian offshore fields contain another estimated 6 trillion cubic meters (and 12 billion tons of oil). Three American majors - Chevron, ConocoPhillips and TXOil - are bidding for two offshore blocks (out of 32 licensed blocks).

    [​IMG]

    Thus, Berdymukhamedov is being driven by a combination of factors to adopt an energy-export diversification policy. In the recent months, he evinced interest in trans-Caspian projects, but it is a problematic idea since Russia and Iran have so far insisted that such projects require the consent of all riparian countries and this requires a settlement over the status of the Caspian Sea. Besides, Turkmenistan has unresolved territorial disputes with Azerbaijan.

    In November, a second Turkmen-Iranian pipeline came on stream and there is potential to increase exports up to 20 bcm. But there are limits to expanding energy ties with Iran or to using Iran as a regional gas hub while the US-Iran standoff continues.

    All this compelled Berdymukhamedov to robustly push for TAPI. The projected 2,000-kilometer pipeline, at an estimated cost of $7.6 billion, traverses Afghanistan (735 kilometers) and Pakistan (800 kilometers) to reach India. Its initial capacity will be around 30 bcm but that could be increased to meet higher demand. India and Pakistan have shown interest in buying 70 bcm annually. The pipeline will be fed by the Dauletabad field, which used to supply Russia.

    Berdymukhamedov did smart thinking in accelerating TAPI. This is an enterprise whose time has come. Russia cannot easily browbeat him. The US has lined up the Asian Development Bank for the project's funding. An international consortium will undertake the construction of the pipeline.

    The pipeline can be easily extended to the Pakistani port of Gwadar and connected with European markets. In short, without appearing to be leaning too far toward the West, Ashgabat is loosening Russia's stranglehold on its gas and oil exports and developing leverage in its dealings with Moscow in future.

    Russia can't stop it
    Moscow has kept its thoughts to itself, but the geopolitics of the TAPI pipeline are rather obvious. The US is succeeding with a major Silk Road project connecting the Central Asian region with the Western market, while bypassing Russian (and Iranian) territory.

    The security of the pipeline is going to be a major regional concern. The onus is on each of the transit countries to secure the pipeline. Part of the Afghan stretch will be buried underground as a safeguard against attacks and local communities will be paid to guard it. But then, Kabul will expect the US and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) to provide security cover, which, in turn, leads to the formalization of the long-term Western military presence in Afghanistan.

    Without a doubt, the project leads to an overall strengthening of US influence in South Asia. The US put heavy pressure on Pakistan and India to spurn the Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) project. Delhi unabashedly buckled under the US pressure. Pakistan showed some degree of defiance and is still keeping its options open.

    There have been occasional threatening noises that Pakistan will turn IPI into an IPC (Iran-Pakistan-China) pipeline. However, the US is offering TAPI as an alternative bone for Pakistan to chew so that it won't be left with much zest to press ahead with the IPC pipeline in any tearing hurry. In sum, Moscow should realize that short of playing a spoiler's role, TAPI might go through.

    Pakistan has strong reasons to pitch for TAPI. It is in critical need of staving off an energy crisis. The TAPI pipeline can be operational as early as 2013-14. During 2008-2009, Pakistan's demand for natural gas began outstripping its production by a shortfall of 203 mmcfd (million cubic feet per day). Pakistan's share from TAPI is pegged at 1325 mmcfd (the same as India's).

    Pakistan also hopes to get a hefty amount from India as transit fee. Then, there are the downstream economic benefits such as industrial expansion, job creation, etc. Most important, Pakistan sees that TAPI heavily involves the US and its comfort level is high whenever Washington becomes a stakeholder in fostering the normalization of its troubled relationship with India.

    As Susan Elliot, the US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State on South and Central Asian Affairs, put it: "The pipeline's route may serve as a stabilizing corridor, linking neighbors together in economic growth and prosperity. The road ahead is long for this project but the benefits could be tremendous and are certainly worthy of the diligence demonstrated by those four countries so far."

    The TAPI pipeline is in actuality a Silk Road connecting Central Asia to the West via the Pakistani port of Gwadar. It makes Pakistan the US gateway to Central Asia. Pakistan rightly estimates that alongside this enhanced status in US regional strategy comes a US commitment to help the Pakistani economy develop and to buttress Pakistan's security needs in the long term.

    US beckons, India follows
    India's "diligence" in TAPI also rests on multiple factors. Almost all the reservations that Indian government officials mouthed from time to time as reasons for lack of interest in IPI hold good for TAPI - security of the pipeline, uncertainties in India-Pakistan relations, cost of the imported gas, self-sufficiency of India's indigenous gas production, etc. But the Indian leadership is visibly ecstatic about TAPI.

    First and foremost, powerful Indian business interests in the petrochemical industry are involved. An interesting feature of the project is that the four governments have agreed to "outsource" execution and management of the $7.6 billion project. That is a lot of pork.

    India's energy-pricing policies are opaque and Delhi heavily subsidizes its private industry, which develops indigenous gas production. Now, Delhi will be negotiating its gas price separately with Ashgabat. That is certain to be the mother of all negotiations, involving two partners who are notoriously placed at the very bottom of the world ranking by Transparency International.

    Indian Petroleum Minister Murli Deora is already grandstanding. At Saturday's ceremony in Ashgabat, he said: "Without doubt, pricing of gas is one of the most important issues. It needs to be appreciated that Turkmen gas would have to compete with other forms of gas in the markets of the buyer countries, including indigenous gas. Being at the tail-end of the project, India will incur the maximum risk with regard to safety of supply."

    In strategic terms, India realizes that TAPI is a US-sponsored regional enterprise and, unsurprisingly, it is eager to participate in it. India would also weigh the advantages of a long-term US involvement in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

    Any project that makes Pakistan a stakeholder in regional security and stability would interest India. To quote Deora, TAPI is the "new Silk Route between Central Asia and South Asia" and Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has described it as a "peace pipeline" in the region.

    Again, TAPI signifies a step forward for the Indian quest for access to Afghanistan and Central Asia via Pakistan. India will factor in that TAPI forms part of the US regional policy focusing on the stabilization of Afghanistan, and the realization of the project may incrementally persuade Pakistan to do course correction on its support to militant groups. The project certainly offers India useful avenues of bilateral interaction with Pakistan, which can lead to bigger dialogue processes.

    Indeed, the doomsday predictions are that the security situation in Afghanistan does not give any scope for the realization of the pipeline. But this is also a chicken-and-egg situation. TAPI can as well be viewed as the missing link that fosters an India-Pakistan consensus over settlement in Afghanistan. But then, in order to grasp the complicated thought, we must also take note of other subtle shades in the big picture.

    India-Pakistan back channels on Kashmir are being quietly revived under US watch, and with Pakistan holding off from stirring up the uprising in the Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir, calm has been restored. The Indian interior minister has been emboldened to speak about a "Kashmir solution" in the coming few months. There is talk in the air about the next round of talks between the Indian and Pakistani foreign ministers.

    In sum, Berdymukhamedov is leading TAPI into the limelight against the backdrop of new stirrings. Who says he isn't a "very bright guy"? The calendar for the pipeline's completion coincides exactly with the 2014 timeline for the end of the US combat mission in Afghanistan.
     
  21. The Messiah

    The Messiah Bow Before Me! Elite Member

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    Idiotic decision.

    Even if it had cost us ten times more we should have gone for undersea route.
     

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