India Pakistan Nuke Scenario - NFU Policy - Massive Retaliation & Possible War Scenarios

aditya10r

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That is true :D

But the prospect of nuclear warheads in the hands of goatfuckig, child molesting psychos is nightmarish.

Better we could simply say that taliban has the nukes and then launch an operation allied with a bunch of countries if necessary.

But the number of uncontrollable variables will mean that any govt. will be reluctant to take intiative.
Once USofA gains enough confidence,then pakis better forget its jewels................

It will be iraq 2.0(referring to gulf war of 1990)
 
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captscooby81

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I was here merely talking about the Baki s tan against china lets not even think to Use Nuke the chinese will wipe us without a trace with all their DF series plus they also have strategic bombers plus 10 nuke Submarines ..

Regarding the weapon s we might be at best having around 80-90 as per the information available in General domain with all the defence and research websites ..

This strike capability is just okay for our western goatfuckers not for our northern Pigs , I am sure we have our missiles on TELs not on underground concrete Silo s in some distant bases away ...But any case man if Baki s use Nuke on us i would seriously expect who ever at the helm in india at that time to grow more balls and nuke them large level at least Nuke their entire military establishments if not the general population cities .. Multan should we wiped of the map first ..and Gwadar ..:lol:

I'm don't know much about these but I don't think Arihant with K-15 can be considered a credible SSC.

Arihant can presently carry only 12 k-15s and sagarika has a limited range like 1000km.
So to strike PRC it might have to cross the malacca and enter south china sea or east china sea.
For pak it has to be in arabian sea to hit paki targets. A single arihant can't do this.

Additonally, I'm speculating that once the arihant or any sub launches a bunch of missiles, its position might be compromised.

Regarding land based sure India vast land area helps, but better would be to convert say half of the land-based stuff into road-mobile TEL version and modify the missiles or build new missiles for the same. They have higher survivability.
 
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aditya10r

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I was here merely talking about the Baki s tan against china lets not even think to Use Nuke the chinese will wipe use without a trace with all their DF series plus they also have strategic bombers plus 10 nuke Submarines ..

This strike capability is just okay for our western goatfuckers not for our northern Pigs , I am sure we have our missiles on TELs not on underground concrete Silo s in some distant bases away ...But any case man if Baki s use Nuke on us i would seriously expect who ever at the helm in india at that time to grow more balls and nuke them large level atleast Nuke their entire military establishments if not the general population cities .. Multan should we wiped of the map first ..and Gwadar ..:lol:
GHANTA..........
If they fire a single missile towards us with a nuke..............
We should wipe out their population and take control of punjab and sindh..................

I wont mind if india is lebelled as mass murdering country
 

captscooby81

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i was saying i am sure We have TELs too to launch our missiles not just only concrete silo s . so that the mobility is restricted when we are attacked ..

Are you sure about this? :)

Please enter a message with at least 30 characters.
 

Chinmoy

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i was saying i am sure We have TELs too to launch our missiles not just only concrete silo s . so that the mobility is restricted when we are attacked ..
Ok... Sorry my bad, didn't got you the first time :).....
 

Tarun Kumar

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All nuke basis are deep underground. Only a 10MT B52 type bunker buster can take out a single nuclear base. All this talk of counterforce strike by either India or Pak is all hot air.
 

lcafanboy

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Indian Nuclear Weapons Are Much More Than Mere Weapons Of Devastation
Book Excerpts- Apr 16, 2017, 5:39 pm

SNAPSHOT


India pledged to never use its nuclear weapons first. An excerpt from Shivshankar Menon’s Choices: The making of Indian Foreign Policy tells us why.



After publicly testing her nuclear weapons for the first time at Pokhran, India under the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government swore by the no-first-use doctrine. For these weapons of destruction beyond human imagination were not just that. They were political armament that could redefine power equations among the nuclear weapon states (NWS) in the nuclear age.

Though India declared that these were the nation’s defence against nuclear threat and blackmail, it was also made clear that if anyone dared use any such weapons against us, retaliation was assured, an unapologetic one at that.

Author and diplomat Shivshankar Menon’s decades of experience in various critical positions that include being the national security adviser to former prime minister Manmohan Singh, and the Indian High Commissioner to Pakistan, and Sri Lanka and the ambassador to China and Israel, in his book Choices: The making of Indian Foreign Policy, sheds light on the nitty gritty of the reasons behind five crucial decisions that the nation has made, one of which is the thought behind India’s No First Use nuclear policy.

Here is an excerpt:

There has been debate in India over whether the country’s no-first-use commitment adds to or detracts from deterrence. Successive Indian governments that have reviewed the question repeatedly since 1998 have been of the view that a no-first-use policy enhances India’s deterrence efforts.

India’s situation and approach are very different from those of the United States. The United States saw its problem as not just deterring the Soviet Union but figuring out how to deter conventional and nuclear aggression against exposed allies confronting local conventional inferiority. In other words, the United States was to provide extended deterrence to its allies. The United States, therefore, distinguishes between first strike and first use of nuclear weapons and argues for preemption in self-defence. Most US scholars would argue that a no-first‑use or a first-use policy is neither inherently destabilising nor stabilising and that the effect of either would depend on the country’s capabilities and adversaries.

For India, on the other hand, the country’s geographic and strategic situation meant that nuclear weapons were not seen as the answer to problems of conventional defence. India’s problem has been how to deter Pakistan’s or others’ first use of nuclear weapons against India and further attempts at nuclear blackmail to change India’s policies.

What are the alternatives to no first use? Announcing that India would strike first if it considered it necessary, as Pakistan and the United States do? Some say that our declaration is already meaningless as it is only a pious hope and does not cover other NWS. If it is meaningless, why the fuss? But that aside, a first-strike doctrine is surely destabilising, and does not further the primary purpose of our weapons of deterring blackmail, threat, or use of nuclear weapons by an adversary against India.

It is hard to see how it would. As for other contingencies, there are ways for India to handle them other than by using nuclear weapons. India’s nuclear weapons are to deter other countries’ use of nuclear weapons; hence the no-first-use commitment is to nuclear weapon states (NWS). There is a potential grey area as to when India would use nuclear weapons first against another NWS. Circumstances are conceivable in which India might find it useful to strike first, for instance, against an NWS that had declared it would certainly use its weapons, and if India were certain that adversary’s launch was imminent. But India’s present public nuclear doctrine is silent on this scenario.

Another idea that is often mentioned as an alternative to no first use is proportionate responses to a nuclear attack. There is nothing in the present doctrine that prevents India from responding proportionately to a nuclear attack, from choosing a mix of military and civilian targets for its nuclear weapons. The doctrine speaks of punitive retaliation. The scope and scale of retaliation are in the hands of the Indian leadership.

Besides, what is a proportionate response to weapons of mass destruction except other weapons of mass destruction? So it is not clear what the advocates of proportionate response are really asking for. These are weapons of mass destruction whether one chooses to call them tactical or strategic, and with its no-first‑use doctrine, India has reserved the right to choose how much, where, and when to retaliate. This is an awesome responsibility for any political leader, but it is the price of leadership and cannot be abdicated to a mechanical or mathematical formula or a set of strategic precepts. No first use is a useful commitment to make if we are to avoid wasting time and effort on a nuclear arms race, such as that between the United States and the Soviet Union, which produced thousands of nuclear weapons and missiles and economically contributed to the collapse of the Soviet Union.

In our geography, the use of nuclear weapons as weapons of war is hardly useful militarily. For nine months of the year prevailing winds on the India-Pakistan border are westerly, and population densities on both sides of the border guarantee that there is little distinction in effect and practice between the use of tactical or strategic nuclear weapons in the India-Pakistan context.

I recall that the Pakistan Army started talking of developing and using tactical nuclear weapons in response to India’s alleged Cold Start doctrine for conventional forces only when there was a real risk of the Pakistan Army losing its internal and external relevance and when General Musharraf seemed close to settling the Kashmir situation and taking some steps against jihadi terrorists. If there was a real fear of a Cold Start strategy among Pakistan Army strategists, it is hard to understand the steady move of Pakistani forces away from the Indian border and toward performing internal security and other functions in western Pakistan since 2004.

As Pakistan’s is the only nuclear weapons program in the world controlled exclusively by the military, it is also likely that sheer institutional momentum and interests led to decisions by Pakistan to increase the number of its warheads and to develop and deploy “tactical” nuclear weapons, despite the problems of command and control of these weapons, which must be devolved down the military chain of command, and the limited military utility of nuclear weapons against India in the specific India-Pakistan context.

Other recent Pakistani decisions, such as setting up separate strategic forces commands for the country’s air force and navy, also seem to be similarly driven by service and institutional interests rather than by rational calculations of national interest. Since India’s doctrine is based on no first use, our posture and nuclear arsenal have to survive a first strike by any enemy or potential combination of adversaries. Hence India’s decision to go in for a triad of delivery systems, by land, sea, and air. Once the SSBN Arihant, the nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine, is fully commissioned, the triad will be in place.

Today, India has effective deterrence against both China and Pakistan. This has been a huge and largely secret effort and has been achieved by India faster than by any other NWS. We are sometimes accused of excessive secrecy in relation to our own people and scholars. That is because the purpose of the nuclear weapons program is to deter our adversaries, not our own people or scholars. And our adversaries will, in any case, believe what they think they have discovered and ferreted out, not what we say in public. Of course, we will be most convincing if what we say matches what they find out for themselves.

Excerpted from Choices: Inside the Making of India’s Foreign Policy by

https://swarajyamag.com/defence/indian-nuclear-weapons-are-much-more-than-mere-weapons-of-devastation


@IndianHawk @Willy2 @roma @Krusty @Defcon 1 @Ghanteshwar @raheel besharam @raja696 @Amr @AnkitPurohit @Akshay_Fenix @aditya10r @airtel @aditya10r @ancientIndian @Bahamut @Berkut @Bornubus @Bengal_Tiger @ersakthivel @FRYCRY @Gessler @HariSud @hit&run @hardip @indiandefencefan @IndianHawk @JayPatel @Kshatriya87 @LETHALFORCE @Mikesingh @NavneetKundu @OneGrimPilgrim @pmaitra @PaliwalWarrior @Pulkit @smestarz @SakalGhareluUstad @Srinivas_K @ShashankSharma @Superdefender @Screambowl @TacticalFrog @Kunal Biswas @sayareakd
 

Mikesingh

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The million dollar question is: Will India use its nukes as counter force or counter-value? Probably both?
 

lcafanboy

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If attacked with a nuke, definitely.
Not if attacked with a nuke.

Even at the hint that Pakistan is going to use nukes even if it is tactical and not city busters India will use Nukes to take out Pakistani nukes. So rest assured India will be the first user of NUKES and not Pakistan as no political party or person in power will allow Pakistan to use nukes first.

We have round the clock surveillance of Pakistan any thing fishy observed will be answered adequately and immediately.
 

Kshatriya87

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Not if attacked with a nuke.

Even at the hint that Pakistan is going to use nukes even if it is tactical and not city busters India will use Nukes to take out Pakistani nukes. So rest assured India will be the first user of NUKES and not Pakistan as no political party or person in power will allow Pakistan to use nukes first.

We have round the clock surveillance of Pakistan any thing fishy observed will be answered adequately and immediately.
India doesn't need nukes to take out paki nukes.
 

lcafanboy

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India doesn't need nukes to take out paki nukes.
We will have to use nukes, as some of those Paki nukes are stored in hardened underground bases (see my post "where are Pakistan's nuclear weapons"). We will also have to use nuke to finish their nuclear weapons launch infrastructure which includes army divisions personnel responsible for activating nukes they maybe entrenched and only nuclear weapons will ensure nothing survives.

Also we will get a window of just 24 hours to finish Pakistan before Dragon comes to our door with its army. The only weapon which can finish Pakistan in 24 hours is nuclear weapons.
 

Kshatriya87

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We will have to use nukes, as some of those Paki nukes are stored in hardened underground bases (see my post "where are Pakistan's nuclear weapons").
Nukes cause surface damage only, not underground. For that you need bunker busters.

We will also have to use nuke to finish their nuclear weapons launch infrastructure which includes army divisions personnel responsible for activating nukes they maybe entrenched and only nuclear weapons will ensure nothing survives.
Army divisions can be taken care of using ballistic missiles with conventional warheads.

Also we will get a window of just 24 hours to finish Pakistan before Dragon comes to our door with its army. The only weapon which can finish Pakistan in 24 hours is nuclear weapons.
Window is a matter of perspective. Firing a salvo of brahmos with conventional warheads at the same time will ensure utter destruction of pakistani nuclear facilities within a couple of hours.
 

Butter Chicken

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If we fire missile barrage at Paki underground bases hidden in KPK mountains,wont it render them unusable?
 

Kshatriya87

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If we fire missile barrage at Paki underground bases hidden in KPK mountains,wont it render them unusable?
That's my point. Taking care of pakistan is easy. A preemptive strike with 200 to 300 brahmos and 50 to 100 ballistic missiles hitting their strategic bases / military bases / air bases / nasr & other missile launch pads / nuclear launch pads simultaneously will effectively paralyze their response and India will be free to do whatever they like with them next.
 

Butter Chicken

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That's my point. Taking care of pakistan is easy. A preemptive strike with 200 to 300 brahmos and 50 to 100 ballistic missiles hitting their strategic bases / military bases / air bases / nasr & other missile launch pads / nuclear launch pads simultaneously will effectively paralyze their response and India will be free to do whatever they like with them next.
Agreed,Pakistani is nothing,it's China we need to worry about.We have limited intelligence in China,and they can hide nukes anywhere in vast Tibetan plateau.They have enough resources to build several underground missile silos unlike Pakistan.
 

Kshatriya87

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Agreed,Pakistani is nothing,it's China we need to worry about.We have limited intelligence in China,and they can hide nukes anywhere in vast Tibetan plateau.They have enough resources to build several underground missile silos unlike Pakistan.
Yes but china isn't reckless like pakis to use nukes on us. They will however wage a conventional war with India if need be.
 

Butter Chicken

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Yes but china isn't reckless like pakis to use nukes on us. They will however wage a conventional war with India if need be.
Chinese are very smart people,we must acknowledge that.They will not wage war with India,instead they will hurt our economy and global standing.They are infiltrating India to destroy local companies and destroying our nascent manufacturing.Also providing massive loans to neighbouring countries to isolate India.We cannot do anything for 10-15 years to rival this
 

Kshatriya87

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Chinese are very smart people,we must acknowledge that.They will not wage war with India,instead they will hurt our economy and global standing.They are infiltrating India to destroy local companies and destroying our nascent manufacturing.Also providing massive loans to neighbouring countries to isolate India.We cannot do anything for 10-15 years to rival this
Actually India is already doing a lot to counter china. But there is only so much the government can do. The people need to boycott chinese products without a fuss, that will hurt chinese economy in a major way.

GOI can't officially block chinese products and wage a trade war.
 

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