India Pakistan Nuke Scenario - NFU Policy - Massive Retaliation & Possible War Scenarios

captscooby81

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Ya who takes UN serious anymore its like Old retired Govt officer who no one listens :biggrin2:. Well USA would have already weaponized space for sure why would they accept it openly and we all know UN reads what USA writes and gives it to them about any policy ...

Who knows if they have weapons in space.........................
 

captscooby81

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Looks like the Baki s are not so dumb as we think sir they have made some well protected fortress for their nuclear dick heads ... We should get int Brahmos extended range faster into service and also Brahmos 2 the hypersonic one .

@lcafanboy Wow! Pretty comprehensive info even if 50% is correct. Thanks for that link!

I think our CARTOSATs have pretty detailed info on Pak's nuke facilities and storage areas and our missiles are ready with eight figure grid references of these targets.
 

Krusty

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Who knows if they have weapons in space.........................
You mean countries violating a UN treaty they themselves signed? Not sure of the chances of that happening

Besides, it's unexplored territory. Such a system will require extensive testing in the environment it's supposed to operate. Any such tests will be immediately picked up wouldn't it ?
 

aditya10r

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You mean countries violating a UN treaty they themselves signed? Not sure of the chances of that happening

Besides, it's unexplored territory. Such a system will require extensive testing in the environment it's supposed to operate. Any such tests will be immediately picked up wouldn't it ?
Well i loved the idea of having weapons in space..................
Weather they have it there or not is a matter of debate and this is not the best place to debate on that i believe...

Our nuke doctrine regarding pak should be to hit them first and break their confidence.......
Hit there nuke sites and facilities with nukes and destroy their nuke facilities in population area by sabotage or any means(if needed nuke them)............

Read a bit about soviet doctrine of seven days to river rhine
 

lcafanboy

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@lcafanboy Wow! Pretty comprehensive info even if 50% is correct. Thanks for that link!

I think our CARTOSATs have pretty detailed info on Pak's nuke facilities and storage areas and our missiles are ready with eight figure grid references of these targets.
That person is annonymous but seems to be an insider. @Zarvan @Neo our terrorist panel and Paki Army and govt will have sleepless nights after seeing this post.
 

captscooby81

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Haven't the chinese help the Baki s on nuclear weapons technology against the law s ??? or same with Iran,Syria,Noko and Iraq ???

You mean countries violating a UN treaty they themselves signed? Not sure of the chances of that happening

Besides, it's unexplored territory. Such a system will require extensive testing in the environment it's supposed to operate. Any such tests will be immediately picked up wouldn't it ?
 

captscooby81

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Naah this might not be such secret it must be in the net for sometime for sure by now ..or they might have deliberately leaked few original and few fake base details to fool the world ..

That person is annonymous but seems to be an insider. @Zarvan @Neo our terrorist panel and Paki Army and govt will have sleepless nights after seeing this post.
 

Tarun Kumar

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Lol UN will be powerless if nuclear war breaks out. International order is breaking down, better we build all weapons necessary for our defence. Space based weapons are absolutely necessary, UN treaty can go down toilet paper for all I care.
 

Krusty

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Haven't the chinese help the Baki s on nuclear weapons technology against the law s ??? or same with Iran,Syria,Noko and Iraq ???
Fair point. Agreed. But still there is the question of testing the systems ...
 

Flame Thrower

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Well this seems as insider (I strongly believe that the insider is an Indian due to recent turn of events... two successful BMD tests, new Agni 4 & 5 tests, a possible changes in Nuclear doctrine and then comes leak on Pak Nuclear bunkers) I've my reasons to believe. Let me share them with you.

1. Nuclear deterrence is costly, takes time & resources to setup.

2. It is as good as ones ability to conceal their nuclear weapons.

3. Who ever has leaked this info, has one aim i.e., scare the sh!t out of Pak Nuclear strategists.

4. The intention behind this leak is to let Pak strategists know that everyone knows about your bunkers, hence they are no longer safe.

5. The guys who leaked the info didn't find the desired results i.e., Pak putting it's resources to create newer bunkers (may be Pak economy is really strained and was unable to afford the cost or Pak govt is sure that any attempt to create newer bunkers will be watched even more closely as some one has already given out the old bunkers details).

5. Till date we Indians have always said NFU, now one of the Indian strategist started to say "lets abandon NFU and aim to prevent Pak going Nuclear". In other words, saying that Pak to start new bunkers as these old ones are not safe anymore.

I strongly feel that the guys who leaked the info haven't shared about every Pak Nuclear bunkers. For confusing Pak even more.

Pakis only advantage against India is Nuclear deterrence, which is affected by Indian BMD(forcing Pak to develop even more missile and thus storages) info on some of the paki Nuclear bunkers is on internet.

GoI is using every kind of deceptive trick to put Pak at back step. Till date Every Indo Pak war is fought as Indians at disadvantage and still defeated Pak, now India is at advantage in every field. In short taking Pakistan back to 1974 era.

P.S: if a lazy IT professional with minimum knowledge like me can come up with analysis like above, imagine what military & Nuclear strategists (specialised in theories to destroy Pak Nuclear arsenal) can!!

PPS: This calls for Party, Today I am going to celebrate in the name of the unknown and @lcafanboy
 
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Razor

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Does India have a credible 2nd strike capability to justify NFU?

Additionally what is a realistic estimate of the number of strategic warheads and also the number of launch platforms?

Experts?
 

Razor

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You mean countries violating a UN treaty they themselves signed? Not sure of the chances of that happening

Besides, it's unexplored territory. Such a system will require extensive testing in the environment it's supposed to operate. Any such tests will be immediately picked up wouldn't it ?
I think the US and possibly even Russia already has at least some space-based weapons capabilities.

What was it?? X-37??
 

captscooby81

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That system was already tested once if you had watched G I Joe Cobra Command movie didn't they used a similar Rod drop from space to destroy London in that movie ...:laugh::rotfl: so it works in movie for sure

Fair point. Agreed. But still there is the question of testing the systems ...
 

captscooby81

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As of now INS arihant and K-15 are the only credible second strike capability we have .. if something happens to this lonely Sub then we are back to zero but with the such vast geographic area we can launch second strike from our bases in A&N with eve Agni III or IV if we cannot launch a nuke from sub or even further from some base in southern tip of india which is far away from pakistan a first strike capacity of Nukes...

Does India have a credible 2nd strike capability to justify NFU?

Additionally what is a realistic estimate of the number of strategic warheads and also the number of launch platforms?

Experts?
 

Razor

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As of now INS arihant and K-15 are the only credible second strike capability we have .. if something happens to this lonely Sub then we are back to zero but with the such vast geographic area we can launch second strike from our bases in A&N with eve Agni III or IV if we cannot launch a nuke from sub or even further from some base in southern tip of india which is far away from pakistan a first strike capacity of Nukes...
I'm don't know much about these but I don't think Arihant with K-15 can be considered a credible SSC.

Arihant can presently carry only 12 k-15s and sagarika has a limited range like 1000km.
So to strike PRC it might have to cross the malacca and enter south china sea or east china sea.
For pak it has to be in arabian sea to hit paki targets. A single arihant can't do this.

Additonally, I'm speculating that once the arihant or any sub launches a bunch of missiles, its position might be compromised.

Regarding land based sure India vast land area helps, but better would be to convert say half of the land-based stuff into road-mobile TEL version and modify the missiles or build new missiles for the same. They have higher survivability.
 
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Razor

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Well i loved the idea of having weapons in space..................
Weather they have it there or not is a matter of debate and this is not the best place to debate on that i believe...

Our nuke doctrine regarding pak should be to hit them first and break their confidence.......
Hit there nuke sites and facilities with nukes and destroy their nuke facilities in population area by sabotage or any means(if needed nuke them)............

Read a bit about soviet doctrine of seven days to river rhine
A few years back there were reports that pak carried around its nuclear warheads on streets etc in unmarked/undefended vans.

All it takes is a nice religious peaceful to tell some tali-bunnies about these and the bunnies can steal them or who knows pak might gift it to some terror outfit in case of a total war in the sub-continent.
 

Tarun Kumar

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NFU is a futile policy. if pak crosses a red line-like assassinating Modi or Mumbai type attack, we should just launch all our nukes at once on them-counterforce and countervalue.
 

aditya10r

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A few years back there were reports that pak carried around its nuclear warheads on streets etc in unmarked/undefended vans.

All it takes is a nice religious peaceful to tell some tali-bunnies about these and the bunnies can steal them or who knows pak might gift it to some terror outfit in case of a total war in the sub-continent.
Well i seriously want taliban to get close to paki nukes so that india,usa and israel together dismantle the nukes................................
That will not only snatch away their jewels but will also isolate them
 

Razor

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Well i seriously want taliban to get close to paki nukes so that india,usa and israel together dismantle the nukes................................
That will not only snatch away their jewels but will also isolate them
That is true :D

But the prospect of nuclear warheads in the hands of goatfuckig, child molesting psychos is nightmarish.

Better we could simply say that taliban has the nukes and then launch an operation allied with a bunch of countries if necessary.

But the number of uncontrollable variables will mean that any govt. will be reluctant to take intiative.
 

lcafanboy

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What are the odds of India's nuclear first strike against Pakistan?
Atomic stuff is exotic and esoteric but at the end of the day, certain universal rules still apply.

Although, why we are debating whether India is abandoning its policy of no first use of nuclear weapons at this juncture is extremely puzzling.

The NYT piece quotes "circumstantial evidence" in the form of a "triad" of statements — by former NSA Shiv Shankar Menon, a retired head of India's Strategic Forces Command (SFC), Lt Gen BS Nagal, and then defence minister Parrikar — as the trigger.

But how is any of this new? The key provocateur in the latest rerun of this debate, Vipin Narang of MIT, had already highlighted this triad in November 2016, so what has changed since then except a high profile think tank event that needed some radioactive grist so as not to appear run of the mill?

Another contention is that India has now moved away from using nuclear weapons for counter value targeting (essentially cities) to counter force targeting (essentially military targets).

But why would Indian planners regard these as mutually exclusive in the first place, especially when the doctrine is centered around massive retaliation?


If we think a first strike will neutralise all Pakistani nuclear strike capability, that's just a chimera. Photo: Reuters
Moreover, the Indian doctrine goes further than even ambiguous US threats in Desert Storm by promising nuclear retaliation for biological and chemical weapon attacks.

The enemy's chemical and biological weapon facilities — which in this context fall under a counterforce definition — have always been in the cross hairs.

Also, is Rawalpindi — home to Pakistan Army's general headquarters as also millions of civilians — a counterforce target or a countervalue target? What about Karachi?

Pakistan's most populous city is also a base for its submarines, now supposedly armed with cruise missiles with nuclear warheads, giving them a nascent second-strike capability.

Counterforce versus countervalue distinctions only go so far, and the lines blur frequently.

Coming back to the triad of statements, let's consider Parrikar's. His maverick pronouncements on NFU led to his own ministry immediately distancing itself from them. This is a man who once said India must "neutralise terrorist through terrorist", but we didn't see counter-terrorism experts confirming the return of CIT-X and CIT-J as an instrument of the Indian policy.

Why then should his nuclear pronouncements be taken seriously?

How are Lt Gen Nagal's strong words suggesting that an NFU posture was somehow "morally wrong" proof that India is shifting to a first-use posture?

If anything, his angst seems to suggest status quo, why else would he be channelling his inner Sundarji and advocating a change of what he perceives is a flawed policy.

Primarily, extracts from Shiv Shankar Menon's book have been cited as the most credible evidence of a change in status quo.

Narang offers Menon's statement that "Pakistani tactical nuclear weapons use [or imminent use] would effectively free India to undertake a comprehensive first strike against Pakistan" as the clincher.

Unfortunately, he is mixing up Rules of Engagement (ROE) that exist at the tactical level with a shift in doctrine.

Menon's statement on "imminent use" is consistent with a positive indication of hostile intent.

"Do Not Fire Until Fired Upon" is a Hollywood catchphrase and does not apply to real world ROE, which almost always prioritises intent over action. Look no further than the US Navy's shootdown of Libyan Mig-23s in 1989 that it is a standard practice to be the first to fire if "hostile intent" is assessed and self-defence becomes the priority.

Yes, nuke stuff is exotic and esoteric but it's still warfare at the end of the day and certain universal rules still apply.

Regardless, if we think a first strike will neutralise all Pakistani nuclear strike capability, that's just a chimera.

For India to adopt a Pakistani version of a nuclear first strike — a nuclear response to an overwhelming conventional attack — makes little sense given the respective military capabilities of the two nations.

None of this is to say that a greater debate about India's nuclear weapons posture isn't required. In fact, there is an overwhelming need for it; but I daresay on more vexing issues.

Watch this space to know what that might look like.

http://www.dailyo.in/politics/india-pakistan-nuclear-war-n-arms-exchange/story/1/16522.html
 

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